The Discursive Dilemma in Monetary Policy

The discursive dilemma implies that the decision of a board depends on whether the board votes directly on the decision (conclusion‐based procedure) or votes on the premises for the decision (premise‐based procedure). We derive results showing when the discursive dilemma might occur. Under majority voting, a discursive dilemma can occur either (i) if the relationship between the premise and the decision is non‐monotonic, or (ii) if the board members have different judgments on at least two of the premises. Normatively, a premise‐based procedure tends to give better decisions when there is disagreement on parameters of the model.     

Group assessment of multivariate prior distributions

This paper addresses the problem of how to generate subjective prior distributions for p-dimensional unobservables. The context assumed is one in which you would like your multivariate prior distribution to reflect the combined views of some respected group. The recommended procedure is to administer a battery of p questions to each of N subjects in a homogeneous panel of randomly selected experts. Each subject answers questions each of which is about only one-dimensional (marginal) parameters. A multistage qualitative controlled feedback interrogation procedure is suggested. The N p-vectors of responses from the panel are combined to form the multivariate subjective prior density of the p-dimensional parameter.     

开放式创新社区中用户交互反馈对个体创新贡献度的影响

开放社区中的用户交互反馈是用户创新活动的重要组成部分，基于需求满足理论，研究其他用户反馈对个体创新贡献度的影响。结合典型开放式产品设计社区——Local Motors平台，采用数据挖掘方法，从数量、质量和情感3个方面研究开放式创新社区中FOU对个体创新贡献度的影响。结果表明，反馈数量和质量均对个体创新贡献度有显著影响，其中反馈次数对个体创新贡献度有显著正向影响，反馈率和反馈人员多样性对个体创新贡献度有显著负向影响，反馈长度和反馈支持文件对个体创新贡献度没有影响，正向情感倾向在用户反馈和个体创新贡献度之间无任何调节作用。     

Peer effects on risk behaviour: the importance of group identity

This paper investigates whether and to what extent group identity plays a role in peer effects on risk behaviour. We run a laboratory experiment in which different levels of group identity are induced through different matching protocols (random or based on individual painting preferences) and the possibility to interact with group members via an online chat in a group task. Risk behaviour is measured by using the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task and peer influence is introduced by giving subjects feedback regarding group members’ previous decisions. We find that subjects are affected by their peers when taking decisions and that group identity influences the magnitude of peer effects: painting preferences matching significantly reduces the heterogeneity in risk behaviour compared with random matching. On the other hand, introducing a group task has no significant effect on behaviour, possibly because interaction does not always contribute to enhancing group identity. Finally, relative riskiness within the group matters and individuals whose peers are riskier than they are take on average riskier decisions, even when controlling for regression to the mean.     

Delphi questionnaires versus individual and group interviews: A comparison case

The article reports on a methodological investigation for different types of the communication device represented by the Delphi method. Traditionally mailed or computer-mediated questionnaires are used. The Delphi method was invented to overcome undesirable effects of group interaction while retaining the positive effects of interactive group judgments. This article supplies evidence for the opposite: the superiority of face- to-face techniques (individual and group interviews) as compared to mailed questionnaires in a three-round Policy Delphi using half-structured questionnaires. Moreover, the case study proves that they might produce different results. In a field- or quasi-experimental design the three techniques were compared for their effects. The performance of 100 panel members on a large number of quality standards in the Delphi method is described. A list of pros and cons of the three techniques in a (Policy) Delphi serves as a summary.     

领导力360度评估反馈差异研究:来自中国的实证检验

本文首先通过自我评价与他人评价的差异,将领导者划分为三种类型,即评价一致者、高估者、低估者;其次根据实际领导力水平划分为优秀和差,建立了领导力四分类和六分类模型。基于实证分析表明,评价一致者、低估者较高估者有较高的领导力评价。但对女性领导者更为优秀的结论没有得到支持,国际化带来的文化差异表现为国外领导者更容易自我扩大,导致领导力相对较低。     

A minimum effort coordination game experiment in continuous time

We conduct an experiment on a minimum effort coordination game in a (quasi-)continuous time-frame, where effort choices can be switched freely during a 60-s period. The cooperation levels of the continuous time treatments are not significantly different from the discrete time treatments. Providing subjects with the information on the effort choices of all group members increases the average effort level in continuous time only. The minimum effort level in continuous time with full information feedback is also substantially higher than that with limited information feedback, but the difference is statistically insignificant. With limited information feedback, subjects rarely coordinate to increase their efforts simultaneously to change the group minimum within a period. Our findings imply that continuous time games are not behaviorally equivalent to infinitely repeated discrete time games.     

技术创新扩散补贴机制研究——基于微分博弈分析

运用微分博弈纳什反馈均衡(Feedback Nash Equilibrium)和Stackelberg反馈均衡(Feedback Stackelberg Equilibrium)对技术创新扩散过程中,采用时间定量补贴和投入比例补贴的两种补贴机制进行了研究。通过研究,我们发现在采用时间定量补贴的微分博弈中,纳什反馈均衡和Stackelberg反馈均衡相同,则先行动者无先动优势,补贴机制没有达到目标。而在改进的采用投入比例补贴机制中,存在唯一的Stackelberg反馈均衡:领导者是先采用者,跟随者是后采用者,则该博弈具有先动优势,从而达到了提高潜在采用者采用积极性的补贴目的。     

How to win a decision in a confederation

This paper deals with collective decision making within a group of independent states. The right to choose the public policy is delegated from the central authority to one of the states through a bidding procedure among the group state members. We identify the following tradeoff: competition among states yields higher transfers to the central authority, but the outcome tends to be less efficient than what it is when states negotiate prior to the decision making process. We extend and illustrate the model by means of a public good game involving several heterogeneous states.     

A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance

A simple algebraic estimation procedure is developed to estimate the parameters of diffusion models of new product acceptance. The procedure required knowledge of the occurrence of the point of inflection (based on actual data, analogous products, or management judgments). It is conceptually easy to use and can be implemented by using a hand calculator. Since the procedure does not employ period-by-period time-series diffusion data, it is not expected to provide the best fit to the data as compared to the maximum likelihood and nonlinear least squares estimation procedures. However, the procedure can provide very reasonable estimates about the relative magnitudes of the parameter estimates. In that respect, the procedure can be used to generate good starting values for the maximum likelihood and nonlinear least squares estimation procedures. In the absence of data, using management judgments about the point of inflection, the procedure can be implemented in a decision-support system to develop conditional diffusion curves for a new product. Data from four diverse innovations are used to illustrate the procedure.     

聘任制改革下高校科研团队青年教师学术产出研究

当前，我国高校正在推行聘任制改革，为高校优秀人才选拔和高水平师资队伍建设带来机遇，但同时也加重了青年教师学术压力，对于合作任务较多的科研团队青年教师尤其如此。以高校国家重点青年教师为对象，研究实施长聘和续聘考核对教师论文与专利数量及质量的影响。结果发现，实行长聘制度对团队青年教师学术产出的激励效果尚不显著，而续聘考核下青年教师学术产出质量则有显著提升。此外，在工科实行较严格的续聘考核对论文发表的促进作用弱于非工科专业。基于研究结果，建议在聘任制改革中重点考察科研组织模式，并且关注不同学科实施效果的差异性，科研团队中青年教师更适合采取较温和的续聘考核方式，而非严格的“非升即走”考核模式。     

Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence

This study investigates individual opinion change and judgmental accuracy in Delphi-like groups. Results reveal that the accuracy of judgmental probability forecasts increases over Delphi rounds (in terms of proportion correct and appropriateness of confidence) when statistical summaries or written rationales are provided from other members of an individual's nominal group, but does not increase in a control iteration condition (without feedback). Additionally, subjects who gave more appropriate probability forecasts on the first round exhibited least opinion change, although measures of confidence were unrelated to opinion change. Results also show that majority opinion exerts strong opinion pull on minority opinion even when the majority favours an incorrect answer (irrespective of the nature of feedback provided). The implications of these results for the utility and conduct of the Delphi technique are discussed, in particular, with respect to selecting panellists and choosing an appropriate feedback format.     

Effects of rotation scheme on fishing behaviour with price discrimination and limited durability: Theory and evidence

This paper examines how rotation arrangement between two groups of fishers with different institutional arrangements affects fishing behaviour and economic outcomes in a particular economic environment characterised by price discrimination and product durability. In one group, fishers cooperate and maximise the extraction of rents, while members in the second group behave non-cooperatively. Applying a model of alternating duopoly, we show that the cooperating group behaves like a price discriminating monopolist and tends to uphold prices. When the two groups rotate fishing days the cooperating group tends to produce more, which prevents the non-cooperating group from unprofitable demand preemption.     

问卷调查分析中的Logistic回归与自变量筛选问题研究

调查问卷的答卷大多数是既有定性数据又有定量数据,降维和回归都是这种分析的主要手段,而定性数据的降维是难点。本文运用多元分析中的聚类分析和Logistic回归分析,通过聚类的方式既达到了降维的目的,又解决了过离散问题。聚类分析同时还将分散的信息加以集中,使得不同类别的特征更加明显。累积Logistic回归是处理多维多分类定性数据的较好方法,运用逐步回归可以筛选出对研究对象影响最显著的变量,将潜在的信息挖掘出来,为管理决策提供建议和依据。     

Group size and the (in)efficiency of pure public good provision

Are larger groups better at cooperation than smaller groups? This paper investigates, under controlled conditions, the presence and direction of a possible group size effect in pure public good provision by large heterogeneous groups. Employing subjects drawn from the general population and introducing Internet-based procedures to study this question, we collected experimental evidence from 1110 subjects playing a linear public goods game in groups of 10, 40, and 100 members. We find a positive and significant group size effect: Increasing group size by a factor of 10 (4) increased efficiency by 10 (6) percent. The effect arose at the intensive margin and with repetition. Those who contributed contributed more in larger groups. Larger and smaller groups had similar initial contribution levels, but cooperation rates declined more slowly in the larger groups. Free-riding was invariant to group size, despite subjects׳ persistent beliefs of a negative group size effect at the extensive margin. Further econometric examination of the data supports these findings and provides starting points for future theoretical and experimental research on the group size effect.     

产业集群辨识方法综述

以产业集群内涵的厘清为基础,系统论述并评价了产业集群辨识中所运用到的各种方法,认为:专家意见法、产业感知法和企业访谈法都具有针对性强、能够收集难以统计的时新信息等特点,但依赖于专家等个体感性认知,系统数据收集困难,结论普适化受限;多元统计聚类法透视出产业间重要的依存关系,但部门全覆盖及产业在集群间截然分组不符实际;主成分分析法辨识结果相对理想,但数理解释牵强;Czamanski法逻辑严密,突出集群内部产业间的相互关联,但对支撑性部门雷同的集群处理待改善;共识集群法所体现出来的综合集成理念值得借鉴。最后总结,集群辨识宜继续开发共识集群法所提供的多种分析整合的做法,量化研究为主,定性修正为辅,同时应增加对空间维度的考虑。     

Voting by veto

This paper describes a voting procedure for revealing preferences for public goods. The procedure consists of two steps: a proposal by each committee member to be added along with the status quo to form the issue set, and then, subsequent to a random determination of voting order, the elimination of one proposal from the issue set by each committee member. For any set of proposals and a given order of voting the procedure determines a unique, winning proposal. Under the procedure's incentives, the winning proposal tends to contain an equal sharing of the potential gains from collective action among the committee members.     

The moderation effect of workplace experience on innovation motivation: a study of STEM faculty in Singapore

While the topic on drivers of innovation has been intensely studied, most of the literature tends to examine motivators at a point in time with the assumption that they are stable. However, shifts in social and environmental contexts may change motivators of behaviour. In light of the discrepancy, this study uses the person–environment fit theory and examines innovation-stimulating work climate from the perspective of workplace experience. With a sample of 276 faculty members in two major universities in Singapore, we test the moderating effect of workplace experience on three motivators – peer influence, performance evaluation and resource access, and found that with increased workplace experience, the effectiveness of these environmental motivators diminished. Resource access and co-worker influence become less salient with the exception of evaluation, which remains important. The implications for university administration and academic training programs are discussed.     

国有企业绩效管理现状及对策浅析

国有企业受传统管理模式的影响,在绩效管理实施过程中出现了不少问题。主要表现在：将绩效管理简单等同于绩效考核;绩效考核指标体系设计不当;绩效评估受主观影响较大;人力资源管理基础工作薄弱;考核结果缺乏有效的应用,与员工回报之间的关系较弱。解决绩效管理效率低下的问题,应当从抓好每一个细小环节开始。因此,提出了应结合国情,注重消化、吸收和创新;建立全面科学的考核指标,定性与定量相结合;加强人力资源基础性工作,建立整合绩效管理系统;注重绩效沟通,建立绩效反馈机制;加强员工激励等五个方面的对策措施,以提高国有企业的经营管理水平。