A method for the analysis of interrelationships between mutually connected events: A cross-impact method

A cross-impact method is developed and adapted to the Socialist planning system, specifically economic growth in Hungary. The method makes it possible to estimate probabilities of occurence of interrelated events, to investigate the chains of effects of such events, and to minimize inconsistencies.     

Scenarios of air transport development to 1990 by SMIC 74—A new cross-impact method

The purpose of this paper is to describe the results of the application of the SMIC 74 method to a study of the air transport development in the Paris area to 1990. SMIC 74 is a new cross-impact method that provides three kinds of results: (a) Consistent information on the events that may occur and influence the evolution of air transport, (b) Cardinal ranking of the possible air transport development scenarios, (c) Sensitivity analysis. This method helps the decision-maker to choose between alternative strategies. For more detailed information the reader should refer to [1–3, 5].     

On the distance between cross-impact models: A set of metric measures for cross-impact analysis

This paper attempts to add to the Leibnizian or mathematical side of Technological Forecasting. Given two distinct cross impact models, the paper shows that there exists a set of appropriate metric measures such that the distance between any two cross impact models can be determined. That is, it is possible to say how close or how far apart two or more cross impact models are to one another. It is argued that the ability to make such determinations is vital to the formal and mathematical development and growth of Technological Forecasting.     

A method of calculating the spectral radius of a nonnegative matrix and its applications

Summary. We present a method of calculating the maximal eigenvalue of an indecomposable nonnegative matrix, which is based on ideas of geometric programming. In addition to that, we obtain estimates for elements of an indecomposable nonnegative matrix by its spectral radius. The results make it possible to obtain new necessary conditions for the productivity of the matrix of coefficients in the Leontief input-output model and have the immediate relation to the analysis of M- matrices. Another interesting application of the developed method is given by conditions of stability of the dynamic system of market equilibrium. Received: January 20, 1999; revised version: November 9, 1999     

A representation theorem for Riesz spaces and its applications to economics

Summary We show that a Dedekind complete Riesz space which contains a weak unite and admits a strictly positive order continuous linear functional can be represented as a subspace of the spaceL ₁ of integrable functions on a probability measure space in such a way that the order ideal generated bye is carried ontoL _t8. As a consequence, we obtain a characterization of abstractM-spaces that are isomorphic to concreteL -spaces. Although these results are implicit in the literature on representation of Riesz spaces, they are not available in this form. This research is motivated by, and has applications in, general equilibrium theory in infinite dimensional spaces.We thank Robert Anderson and Neil Gretsky for several useful conversations. The third author also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Deutscheforschungsgemeinschaft, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Forder preis, the National Science Foundation, and the UCLA Academic Senate Committee on Research.     

现阶段交通运输经济的必要性及效益提升路径探讨

发达的交通运输工作是国民经济发展的大动脉,交通运输经济的管理也在协调经济发展与社会发展关系的过程中也会发挥十分重要的作用。网络建设、信息化的管理建设工作也是十分重要的工作,可以在发展中缩短地区之间的差异性,充分进行协调化的发展,因此,交通运输经济发展成为了枢纽性的发展产业。为了更好适应好社会发展的需要,为了谋求交通运输经济的长期稳定发展,就需要在发展策略方面进行充分的指定与科学化的分析,从内部因素、外部影响等多方面进行分析,将许多科学化的技术引入到发展中,从而进行经济效益的提升。     

Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: the role of battery technology performance

In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase electric vehicles (EVs), the government has been funding battery research to solve some of these problems. This paper presents a study using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to forecast future battery performance characteristics. The results were compared against the performance goals established by the US Department of Energy (DOE). We find that the foreseen progress of EV battery performance will be insufficient to meet the DOE projected goals for the range that EVs can travel before running out of power. Therefore, a new battery technology must be developed because the incremental improvements in current battery technologies leave EVs considerably short of the DOE performance specification for longer trip ranges.     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

IS model: A general model of forecasting and its applications in science and the economy

Expanding the work of Marchetti and Modis on Lotka-Volterra competition systems, a general model of Interaction Systems (IS) is introduced to describe the dynamics of multiple member interactions among different populations concerning not only biological systems but other types of systems as well. The new IS model provides us with a general framework of analysis and forecasting, where all parameters, variables, and interactions have real meaning, by using basic knowledge of each system.The proposed model can be applied to many different fields covering economic, business, social, physical, and other phenomena giving us both numerical estimates and qualitative insights of the system's dynamics. This is illustrated in two case studies. In the first case, the IS model is applied to elementary chemical reactions in order to quantify the reactions' kinetics. The result is the well known rate law of chemical reactions kinetics thus providing evidence of the proposed model's validity. In the second case, the IS model is applied to the global economy. The resulting model is tested against real global GDP data. The new IS model gave reliable estimates and proved to be considerably more accurate as compared to a similar forecast of global GDP based on the logistic growth model. Furthermore, the new model presented a basic framework of understanding the nature of major economic shifts, including the recent global recession of 2009, by studying the dynamic relationship between demand and supply.     

A comparison of alternative technologies to de-carbonize Canada's passenger transportation sector

Using a full systems model of Canada's economy, six alternative scenarios to de-carbonize the personal passenger vehicle fleet are compared to a business as usual non de-carbonized scenario in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, trade disposition of energy commodities, and the physical resources required for energy production. Three scenarios are analyzed to compare the impacts of increasing either ethanol 85, hydrogen, or electricity powered vehicles into the vehicle fleet, with each starting to penetrate the light vehicle stock in 2010 to reach 100% of the new vehicle market by 2050. For each of these three scenarios, we then construct a variant scenario that considers the additional effects of de-carbonizing electricity production. With a de-carbonized electricity sector, net emission reductions are 29% for ethanol 85, and 31% for both hydrogen and electricity. When considering the transportation sector only, net emission reductions equal 13% for ethanol 85, and 14% for hydrogen and electricity. However, although the ethanol scenario results in the lowest reduction in total emissions, it has significant impacts on other parts of the physical resource base. By the time ethanol reaches 5% of the fuel mix in 2015, domestic consumption of grains increases by 20%, in turn impacting crop trade disposition. At this point, emissions are reduced by less than 0.5%, owing to the fossil fuels required since most ethanol is still grain based. By 2050 it is projected that almost all ethanol will be cellulose based, generating a more significant emission reduction but in turn requiring potentially unsustainable amounts of crop residue.     

辽宁经济振兴中城镇就业问题与对策

结合辽宁情况,从多个角度全面、深入剖析了辽宁经济振兴中城镇失业的致因,并从劳动力资源开发、劳动力自由流动和资源有效配置以及挖掘就业潜能、提高经济对就业吸纳能力等角度,提出了促进经济振兴、解决城镇就业的一系列对策建议。     

Classification of regional agricultural structure: method and its application to China

Regional agriculture is the basis of regional sustainable development, so sustainable regional agricultural development is essential to the sustainable development of the whole society and becomes the focus of global research. The classification of regional agricultural structure is the basic work of regional agriculture study. This paper constructs index system （27 indices） of regional agricultural structure types with the three big indices： natural resources, developmental level of the agro-economy, and agro-ecological conditions. This paper also endows weight to every sub-classification index by means of AHP and obtains the comprehensive evaluation value of the three types of indices with arithmetic average weight approach. The regional agricultural structure can be classified into eight types in accordance with this evaluation results. The empirical study of China shows that the 31 provinces （municipalities and autonomous regions） are of different agriculture structural types. Finally, countermeasures of sustainsable agricultural development are put forward for the different agriculture structure features.     

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry

Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.     

日本企业IT应用面面观

90年代以来迅速发展的IT革命,在人类历史上第一次形成了全球性的信息通讯网络,这不仅有力地促进了信息化社会的发展,也给企业经营战略带来了很大的影响。日本企业在IT应用方面亦有了很大的进展并形成了自己的特点,在增加信息化投资、实现企业信息化的同时,从新产品开发、零部件     

跨国企业组织结构变化规律分析及其应用

在当前全球经济放缓的过程中，我们注意到跨国企业的组织结构变化呈现出一种较一致的变化趋势：除最常看到的裁员和减薪等表面现象外，其他一些变化趋势更值得关注，如组织结构紧缩、从以区域性分公司为主的横向结构转向以产品线为主的纵向结构等。在IBM、CISCO、Agilent等跨国企业，“组织垂直化整合”这个名词已经成为了使用频率很高的词汇。那么，跨国企业组织结构垂直化整合的现象是偶然的吗？显然不是的，这种组织结构的变化是由于经济环境的变动而导致的。组织结构变化与经济环境变动直接相关组织结构是用来达到组织目标的一种手…     

云南城乡收入差距及制度原因分析

云南省社会经济发展自改革开放后非常迅速,但是由于云南边疆多民族地区的现实情况,两级发展矛盾突出,城市和农村之间的差距也在日益拉大。城乡二元结构十分突出,城乡之间二元分割严重,城乡差别持续扩大,已经造成云南城乡关系的紧张和失衡。就此,通过对云南城乡收入差距的分析,从制度层面剖析云南城乡收入失衡的原因。     

A two-stage core with applications to asset market and differential information economies

Summary. We introduce a new core concept, called the two-stage core, which is appropriate for economies with sequential trade. We prove a general existence theorem and present two applications of the two-stage core: (i) In asset markets economies where we extend our existence proof to the case of consumption sets with no lower bound, in order to capture the case of arbitrary short sales of assets. Further, we show that the two-stage core is non empty in the Hart (1975) example where a rational expectations equilibrium fails to exist. (ii) In differential information economies where we provide sufficient conditions for the incentive compatibility of trades. Namely, that no coalition of agents can misreport the true state and provide improvements to all its members, even by redistributing the benefits from misreporting. Received: December 20, 1995; revised version: December 6, 1996     

灾害管理领域中的卫星遥感技术和实践

本文主要介绍了法国和欧洲的卫星遥感资源和技术,及包括在减灾防灾方面的具体实践。同时,对全球其他对地观测组织和计划进行了简要介绍。在空间技术方面拥有强大实力的法国整合了灾害管理体系中的卫星遥感技术。