Terrorism and the world economy

It has been argued that terrorism should not have a large effect on economic activity, because terrorist attacks destroy only a small fraction of the stock of capital of a country (see, e.g., Becker, G., Murphy, K., 2001. Prosperity will rise out of the ashes. Wall Street Journal October 29, 2001). In contrast, empirical estimates of the consequences of terrorism typically suggest large effects on economic outcomes (see, e.g., Abadie, A., Gardeazabal, J., 2003. The economic cost of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review 93, 113-132). The main theme of this article is that mobility of productive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism. We use a simple economic model to show that terrorism may have a large impact on the allocation of productive capital across countries, even if it represents a small fraction of the overall economic risk. The model emphasizes that, in addition to increasing uncertainty, terrorism reduces the expected return to investment. As a result, changes in the intensity of terrorism may cause large movements of capital across countries if the world economy is sufficiently open, so international investors are able to diversify other types of country risks. Using a unique data set on terrorism and other country risks, we find that, in accordance with the predictions of the model, higher levels of terrorist risks are associated with lower levels of net foreign direct investment positions, even after controlling for other types of country risks. On average, a standard deviation increase in the terrorist risk is associated with a fall in the net foreign direct investment position of about 5% of GDP. The magnitude of the estimated effect is large, which suggests that the “open-economy channel” impact of terrorism may be substantial.     

Small investment and large returns: Terrorism, media and the economy

The study investigates the role of the media in the impact of terrorism on the economy. A unique data set of the newspaper articles that reported terrorist attacks during 2002 is used to evaluate their impact on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. An econometric analysis is performed in order to understand how a newspaper decides to cover a terrorist attack, i.e. the number of articles, positioning of articles, whether to include photos and the size of headlines. It was found that media coverage is an important channel through which terrorism produces economic damage. The findings also showed that the economic damage caused by terrorist attacks increases monotonically with the amount of media coverage. It was also found that the economic impact of the media coverage diminishes over time.     

Aid and the Delegated Fight Against Terrorism

A positive empirical relationship is found between the level of foreign aid received by a country and the number of terrorist attacks originating from it. A simple model is used to explain it, where the donor delegates some actions against terrorism to the aid‐recipient government. Aid is endogenous in an econometric equation explaining participation in terrorist events, as expected from the model, and an attacks‐supply curve in which aid has a negative impact is presented at the end.     

当代恐怖主义产生之根源探析

当代恐怖主义产生的原因是众多的，宗教矛盾是恐怖主义产生的一个主要根源，而其中影响最大的要属伊斯兰原教旨主义。伊斯兰原教旨主义极端派别的恐怖活动使其成为伊斯兰原教旨主义的替代品，最终成为恐怖主义的代名词。恐怖主义给国际社会带来巨大的危害性。反恐必须反对极端伊斯兰原教旨主义。     

Fighting Terrorism: Empirics on Policy Harmonisation

This paper models the feasibility of common policy initiatives against global terrorism, as well as timelines for their enforcement. The empirical evidence is based on 78 developing countries for the period 1984–2008. Domestic, transnational, unclear and total terrorism variables are used. Absolute (or unconditional) and conditional catch‐ups are estimated using Generalised Method of Moments. We establish consistently that, the rate of catch‐up is higher in domestic terrorism relative to transnational terrorism. The time to full catch‐up required for the implementation of common policies without distinction of nationality is found to be in a horizon of 13–20 years for domestic terrorism and 24–28 years for transnational terrorism. Hence, from a projection date of 2009, in spite of decreasing cross‐country differences in terrorists’ attacks, there is still a long way to go before feasible common policy initiatives can be fully implemented without distinction of nationality. The paper is original by its contribution to the empirics of conflict resolution through decreasing cross‐country differences in terrorism tendencies. Policy implications are discussed.     

经济学视野中的和谐社会

社会和谐是一个社会系统的结构、功能、作用、运动、发展的一种理想的状态。文章选取了自由经济学家、马克思主义政治经济学、当代主流经济学家的主要观点,指出经济学家一般从两个层面研究社会和谐:一个是从社会和谐的经济基础或现实生产关系出发来研究;另一个是从具体资源配置和社会经济运行的层面来研究。     

Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks

Using event study methodology and GARCH family models, the paper investigates the effects of two terrorist incidents – the bomb attacks of 11th March 2004 in Madrid and 7th July 2005 in London – on equity sectors. Significant negative abnormal returns are widespread across the majority of sectors in the Spanish markets but not so in the case of London. Furthermore, the market rebound is much quicker in London compared to the Spanish markets where the attackers were not suicide bombers. Nevertheless, the overall findings point to only a transitory impact on return and volatility that does not last for a long period.     

Terrorism and international economic policy

We add to the ongoing discussion regarding the policy consequences of terrorism by analyzing the effect of terrorism on international economic policy for a panel of 170 countries between 1970 and 2016. We find that countries resort to less liberal international economic policies when facing the threat of terrorism. This effect is especially relevant to smaller (less populated) countries. Our main finding is robust to an instrumental-variable approach. We argue that governments pursue less liberal international economic policies in response to terrorism to interrupt the organization and financing of terrorism, limit capital flight, stabilize public finances and signal political resolve.     

公共利益与道德恐怖主义

在我们的社会中,从来就不欠缺善于撒谎和作秀的“行为艺术家”,也从来不缺少驯服和麻木的灵魂,缺少的是真性情的自然表达和健康的对话机制,缺少的是对打着公共利益旗号假公济私现象的习惯性警惕,缺少的是从日常生活开始韧性的反抗,从而试图建设一个相对真实的社会的努力。     

Terrorism and inbound tourism in Egypt: Economy-wide and distributional impacts

Following the January 2011 Revolution, Egypt experienced increasing political instability and has also been the target of intense terrorist attacks. While substantial efforts continue to be exerted by the current regime to put an end to these attacks, it is not clear whether the country's reputation as a safe tourist destination will be restored in the medium run. This paper assesses the extent of the Egyptian economy's vulnerability to a prolonged tourism shock using an economy-wide framework. The simulation results reveal that a shock to tourism has a significant impact on the Egyptian economy, as a rebound of inbound tourism substantially increases both GDP and welfare. Consequently, it pays for the government to put measures in place to moderate the effect of negative shocks to inbound tourism. A subsidy to health tourism was found to boost both economic growth and welfare.     

Global Security Policies against Terrorism and the Free Riding Problem: An Experimental Approach

The World Trade Center attack has shed light on the urgent need to implement preventing measures against terrorism and to enhance cooperation in the global security system for all countries. However, international coordination cannot be taken for granted. It is often ineffective and likely to fail for several reasons. Perhaps the more prominent reason to explain failure in coordination is that collective actions against terrorism may suffer from the well‐known free riding problem. In this paper we experimentally investigate cooperation dilemma in counterterrorism policies by measuring to what extent international deterrence policy may suffer from free riding. In our game, contributions to the group account do not aim to increase the production of the public good but instead seek to decrease the probability that a stochastic event destroys the good. A country could choose to free ride by investing nothing in the international deterrence policy and instead invest all its resources in its own national protection or even choose to ignore totally terrorism by investing on alternative projects. We also look at the effects of institutions that allow sanctioning and rewarding of other countries to facilitate coordination on deterrence policy. We find that, in absence of institutional incentives and after controlling for risk aversion, most of countries defect by investing very weakly in collective actions against terrorism while largely investing to protect themselves. In contrast, the introduction of punishment/reward incentive systems improves significantly the contribution level to the collective security account.     

Toward closer links between science and society in India: A futuristic formula

This work presents a futuristic scenario of science and technology in India in relation to development and social change. Organizational, financial, developmental, etc. trends in science and technology have been identified as consequences of history, culture and national policy alternatives conceived in the past and perceived for the future. The present course of action is considered unlikely to bridge the existing gap between science and society in India. The findings are relevant for S&T policy and planning in the developing countries.     

文明社会需要人文精神

1980年3月,联合国大会首次使用了“可持续发展”一词,并向全世界呼吁“必须研究自然的、社会的、生态的、经济的以及利用自然资源过程中的基本关系,确保全球的可持续发展”。1992年6月,在巴西里约热内卢召开的联合国环境与人类社会发展大会,确立可持续发展作为人类社会发展的新战略。可持续发展是人类共同的未来,但是可持续发展作为一种新的理论,目前还不够成熟,需进一步的研究和探索。可持续发展包括的内容很广,人们认为,可持续发展是一个“生态—经济—社会”系统,它应包括生态的、经济的和社会的可持续发展,其最终目标是社会的可持续发展…     

The projection dynamic and the replicator dynamic

We investigate a variety of connections between the projection dynamic and the replicator dynamic. At interior population states, the standard microfoundations for the replicator dynamic can be converted into foundations for the projection dynamic by replacing imitation of opponents with “revision driven by insecurity” and direct choice of alternative strategies. Both dynamics satisfy a condition called inflow–outflow symmetry, which causes them to select against strictly dominated strategies at interior states; still, because it is discontinuous at the boundary of the state space, the projection dynamic allows strictly dominated strategies to survive in perpetuity. The two dynamics exhibit qualitatively similar behavior in strictly stable and null stable games. Finally, the projection and replicator dynamics both can be viewed as gradient systems in potential games, the latter after an appropriate transformation of the state space.     

The projection dynamic and the replicator dynamic

We investigate a variety of connections between the projection dynamic and the replicator dynamic. At interior population states, the standard microfoundations for the replicator dynamic can be converted into foundations for the projection dynamic by replacing imitation of opponents with “revision driven by insecurity” and direct choice of alternative strategies. Both dynamics satisfy a condition called inflow–outflow symmetry, which causes them to select against strictly dominated strategies at interior states; still, because it is discontinuous at the boundary of the state space, the projection dynamic allows strictly dominated strategies to survive in perpetuity. The two dynamics exhibit qualitatively similar behavior in strictly stable and null stable games. Finally, the projection and replicator dynamics both can be viewed as gradient systems in potential games, the latter after an appropriate transformation of the state space.     

Harmony between man and nature：the base for the harmonious society

The harmony between man and nature is the base for the harmonious society. It is determined by the eco-ruleand eco-economic rule. Human being should not violate the eco-rule. However, human being can make eco-systemsupply suit economic growth and its speed through systematical innovation and restriction of human economic activityand choice. Through technological innovation, efficiency satisfaction of unit resource can be increased; structure andfunction of eco-system can be perfected; supply capability of eco-system can be improved. To build the harmonioussociety, human should consider the reasonable distribution of limited resources from two sides. The first one is that theutilization of two functions of resource supply and pollution purification to nature should not exceed its special supplycapability formed under its special structure and function states, i.e. harmony between man and nature. The second sideis human being should think over the reasonable and effective distribution of limited resources in economic society, i.e.harmony between human beings and society. The reasonable economic activity of human being is the key to the harmo-nious development of man and nature.     

Corporate self-reliance and the sustainable society

This paper explores the role of “corporate self-reliance” in producing and maintaining a sustainable society. The paper examines the meaning of corporate self-reliance: business enterprises assuming responsibility for the consequences of their operation in the social as well as the physical environment by forming partnerships with local communities and families.The paper presents four strategies for the development of corporate self-reliance. The first is the role of labor-management committees as change agents for improving the quality of community and work life. The second strategy is worker-ownership as a constructive community response to plant shut-downs. The third strategy involves employer-based family support systems. The fourth is participative work as a means of enhancing personal and corporate competence resulting in enhanced morale and productivity, essential components of corporate self-reliance. In all four examples, the underlying theme is the importance of investing in human resources. In the course of explicating these phenomena, the paper considers the following related issues: Japanese concepts of corporate responsibility for employee and community welfare, outcome measures beyond job satisfaction, community impact, and the costs of change for individuals and groups. The paper relies upon original research by the authors and a review of studies in a variety of disciplines.     

International Terrorism,Domestic Political Instability,and the Escalation Effect

What are the main causes of international terrorism? Despite the meticulous examination of various candidate explanations, existing estimates still diverge in sign, size, and significance. This article puts forward a novel explanation and supporting evidence. We argue that domestic political instability provides the learning environment needed to successfully execute international terror attacks. Using a yearly panel of 123 countries over 1973–2003, we find that the occurrence of civil wars increases fatalities and the number of international terrorist acts by 45%. These results hold for alternative indicators of political instability, estimators, subsamples, subperiods, and accounting for competing explanations.