Time series econometrics for the 21st century

What topics should be taught to undergraduate students in econometric time series?     

Challenges for nursing in the 21st century

Nurse leaders face a myriad of challenges in the 21st century such as nursing workforce shortages, negative affectivity, generation workforce concerns, changing delivery systems, and increasing clinical practice complexity, to name a few. Visionary and strategic thinking centered on patients' well-being are needed to tackle these challenges and shape a more humane and compassionate health care system.     

Moving the census into the 21st century

The author reviews some issues of concern to the U.S. Bureau of the Census as it adapts to changing technologies and increased demand for its services. Topics covered include improvements in turnaround time between data collection and publication, expansion of services, data delivery, and targeting data users. Particular attention is given to how to improve the data collected through the census.     

The pharamaceutical laboratory of the 21st century

This article lays out a wide range of factors influencing the future of a traditional laboratory to suggest how social, economic, political and industrial forces, as well as traditional scientific and technological developments, may radically alter the laboratory of the future.     

Technology at the beginning of the 21st century1

We are science and technology heading in the decades ahead? All leading industrial nations have been looking for plausible answers to this question. Government agencies and industry—particularly in Japan and the US—have been carrying out technological studies in recentyears to gather facts and arguments for their research planning. An interdisciplinary working group commissioned by the German Federal Research Minister brought together several R&D programme managing agencies under the auspices of the Karlsruhe-based Fraunhofer Institute for Systas and Innovation Research (ISI) to prepare a futures study of science and technology in the German context.     

Technology at the beginning of the 21st century1

We are science and technology heading in the decades ahead? All leading industrial nations have been looking for plausible answers to this question. Government agencies and industry—particularly in Japan and the US—have been carrying out technological studies in recentyears to gather facts and arguments for their research planning. An interdisciplinary working group commissioned by the German Federal Research Minister brought together several R&D programme managing agencies under the auspices of the Karlsruhe-based Fraunhofer Institute for Systas and Innovation Research (ISI) to prepare a futures study of science and technology in the German context.     

21世纪管理环境与管理科学的大趋势

管理根植于社会经济的土壤，管理环境与管理科学的发展也取决于社会经济的需求拉动与发展推动，要分析21世纪管理环境与管理科学的大趋势，必希以社会经济环境的变化预测为前提。     

21世纪中国零售业变革趋势

进入21世纪,随着市场经济进程的加快和知识经济的到来,加上外国零售商业的示范作用,中国零售业将会发生前所未有的变化。业态的调整与业态结构的优化对商业的发展起到关键性甚至决定性作用,百货商店、超级市场、连锁店、仓储商场等业态,是20世纪商业业态的成功典范。21世纪是传统业态与新兴业态复合的时代,以新型商业中心、全功能     

Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century

Since the beginning of the 21st century, many Latin American countries have been ruled by governments characterized as populist (the so-called new Latin American Left). We focus on the macroeconomic implications of the policies adopted by these governments (instead of their leaders’ rhetoric) and we investigate to what extent this characterization holds. In particular, we focus on their wage policies by doing a Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis and assuming that populist shocks have no long-run effects on real wages. This identification implies that populist leaders prioritize redistribution through nominal wages disregarding the evolution of productivity. The results indicate that economic populism is not as widespread as previously thought. Instead, our approach leads to more nuanced results: while we find that there is populism in Argentina, the results for Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador show only sporadic populist events. In the remaining countries, we do not find persistent economic populism.     

The task and challenge for Japan in the 21st century: An introduction

Since the collapse of an asset-inflated economic bubble in Japan started in the second half of the 1980s, it has brought about an entirely different assessment of this country. For all admiration claimed for it, the Japanese economy proved to be subject to Newton's law of gravitation. Opinions were beginning to divide over Japanese technology, too, after it was once believed to be leading the world. In fact, Japan has a big task to solve in the years before the 21st century. How will the Japanese face up to upheavals in the world, or how will they respond to their domestic problems such as demographic and rigid structures?Few messages from Japan have so far been available with regard to these questions. The world is left in a puzzle over the questions. Our task in this issue is to make clear what the Japanese are thinking and preparing to do in the years before the 21st century, and “what it is that they have to produce an influence on the world.”Specifically, discussions center on moves toward a knowledge-based society, research and development projects, manufacturing technologies, business strategies, industrial ecology, and the possibilities of a trilemma. In this article, I make some observations as a background to those subjects.     

Taxation for the 21st century: the automated payment transaction (APT) tax

This paper examines the desirability and feasibility of replacing the present system of personal and corporate income, sales, excise, capital gains, import and export duties, gift and estate taxes with a single comprehensive revenue neutral Automated Payment Transaction (APT) tax. In its simplest form, the APT tax consists of a flat tax levied on all transactions. The tax is automatically assessed and collected when transactions are settled through the electronic technology of the banking/payments system. The APT tax introduces progressivity through the tax base since the volume of final payments includes exchanges of titles to property and is therefore more highly skewed than the conventional income or consumption tax base. The wealthy carry out a disproportionate share of total transactions and therefore bear a disproportionate burden of the tax despite its flat rate structure. The automated recording of all APT tax payments by firms and individuals eliminates the need to file tax and information returns and creates a degree of transparency and perceived fairness that induces greater tax compliance. Also, the tax has lower administrative and compliance cost. Like all taxes, the APT tax creates new distortions whose costs must be weighted against the benefits obtained by replacing the current tax system.     

Redesigning a 20th century regulatory framework to deliver 21st century energy technology

Electricity systems are shifting from a once highly centralised regulated model to become more renewable, distributed and consumer-centric. Australia has some of the highest installation rates of embedded renewable electricity generation in the developed world. This has been driven by increasing grid-supplied energy prices, policy incentives and declining technology costs. The emergence of cost-effective distributed battery storage and energy management systems is likely to fundamentally alter the electricity industry—which has been largely unchanged for decades. Evolutionary economics indicates that firms must adapt to new technologies and market conditions or they will become extinct. Energy markets will only evolve, however, if regulatory frameworks continuously adapt to ensure that consumer preferences for reliability, control and environmental outcomes are able to be achieved at lowest cost. Most importantly, regulators will need to ensure that facilitating efficient consumer decision making is prioritised.     

Technological prospects toward the 21st century: The case of Toshiba Corporation

Growth of industry has been driven by technology innovation and is expected to turn into a new phase through creative technology innovation. The recent technology environment, however, has changed drastically. Instead of a technology breakthrough, which has played a leading part so far, fusion and integration of technologies will be key to future technology innovation. In this article Toshiba's case is introduced with regard to technological prospects in the fields of electronics, electric energy, and environment. Investment in research and development (R&D) increases rapidly along with the advance of technology. Strategic alliance that utilizes each partner's strength will be one of the options in the company's R&D management. Examples of international research collaboration are described in this article.     

国际经济关系与秩序:进入21世纪的思索

经济全球化是世纪之交世界经济中最为重大的现象,作为一种经济过程,它伴随现代经济的出现而出现,伴随着现代经济的发展而发展,已经经历了100多年的历史。在世界经济发展史中,生产要素的跨国流动最初是劳动力,然后是商品,继而是资本,今天则发展成为综合的要素流动,其中知识、科技要素的流动具有非常重要的作用。因此,经济全球化的概念被认为是生产要素在全球范围的广泛流动,实现最佳配置的过程,同时也意味着经济福利在全球的最大化。经济全球化对于新世纪的国际经济关系格局有着重大的影响,对于中国经济发展也有着根本性的影响。     

Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

21世纪世界石油市场走势与中国石油安全

21世纪的石油市场将呈现出以下态势 :世界石油资源仍比较充裕 ,但需求的不断上涨将使其供应趋向紧张 ;石油价格保持低价缓升的趋势 ,但具有发生较大波动的可能性 ;世界石油生产和消费的地理分布不平衡将更加突出 ;中东石油在世界石油市场的“生力军”地位将更加突出 ,而中亚石油则将成为一匹“黑马”;世界石油市场的垄断性、投机性也将日趋增强。中国今后由于一方面受后备资源的限制 ,石油产量不可能有较大提高 ;另一方面石油需求增速过快 ,供需缺口将日趋增大 ,石油安全不容乐观     

Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis

Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO₂ concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.