Panama's International Banking Center: The direct employment effects

Despite the political saliency of employment, the growing scholarly literature on financial centers contains only a few cursory estimates of employment in international banking. We use simple methods to calculate the total and marginal direct employment effects of Panama's International Banking Center. The results, which appear reasonable, suggest that international banking activities are not very labor intensive and provide even fewer jobs than many observers infer from the relatively impressive asset amounts involved.     

Quantifying the employment effects of micro-electronics

The paper attempts to quantify some of the compensatory effects on employment which may offset the direct displacement effects of faster technological change. It is argued that technological change will not necessarily increase unemployment levels. There are a number of compensating effects which may reduce and even outweigh any initial displacement effects. The study uses simulation techniques with a detailed model of the UK economy. One conclusion is that, even if the UK does not innovate as fast as its major competitors, a more rapid rate of diffusion of new technology may result in higher employment than would otherwise be the case.     

Overtime reductions: Negligible employment effects

Summary Overtime hours were worked in Germany during the period 1990–1997 primarily by well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers. In addition, it is evident that overtime is increasingly being compensated by flexible leisure schedules. The scope for potential employment effects from a reduction of paid overtime is thus constantly decreasing and is much lower than the figures cited by unions in the current discussion. If the regulations to make working time more flexible being discussed in the “Alliance for Jobs’ were to be implemented, this would reinforce the observed trend towards compensation for overtime through leisure, further diminishing the potential employment effects. If the bargaining parties or the legislators would implement a reduction of overtime nonetheless, well-qualified blue-collar and white-collar workers in western Germany will suffer income losses.     

The effects of private equity and venture capital on sales and employment growth in small and medium-sized businesses

We study the effects private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) financing have on small and mid-sized single entity business establishments from 1995 to 2009. We focus on single entity establishments to cleanly examine the impact of PE and VC financing on establishments’ organic growth. This study reveals that PE and VC financing have positive impacts on single entity business establishments’ net sales and employment growth. The impact of PE financing on establishments’ growth is slower and smaller than VC financing. However, we find that the benefit of PE financing lasts longer than VC financing. We also find that ethnic minority, female, and foreign business owners are less likely to receive PE and VC financing. Finally, we find evidence that although establishments with government contracts are more likely to receive PE and VC financing, those contracts fail to produce marginal post-funding growth and employment benefits.     

The cross-sectional effect of inflation on corporate investment and employment

This paper examines the cross-sectional effect of inflation on the investment and employment decisions. The paper shows that more heavily capitalized firms tend to have a greater reduction in the capital-labor ratio during an inflationary period. The paper also shows that firms with a higher cost of debt to wage ratios and a larger amount of depreciation shelter tend to use more labor in the inflationary period. Empirical results are generally consistent with these arguments. The authors wish to thank John Anderson, Jim Hodder, two anonymous referees and Cheng F. Lee, the Editor for their helpful comments. All remaining errors are ours.     

Evaluation of the long-term effects of technological trends on the structure of employment

A method is proposed to project the effects of new technologies on employment structure, utilizing technology-specific information. A three-dimensional technology evaluation scheme is developed based on sectors of the economy, fields of application of new technologies, and mechanisms through which new technologies influence key economic variables. Rated impacts of each field of application via each mechanism for each sector can then be ascribed an ordinate value, with a further round of judgment to aggregate over different technologies, mechanisms and sectors. The approach is applied to project changes in the sectoral structure of employment in Germany in the 1990s if the diffusion of new technologies is accelerated.     

The effects of population aging on optimal redistributive taxes in an overlapping generations model

The impact of population aging on the steady-state solution to an Ordover and Phelps (J. Public Econ. 12:1?C26, 1979) overlapping generations optimal nonlinear income tax problem with two types of worker and quasilinear-in-leisure preferences is investigated. A decrease in the rate of population growth, which leads to an aging population, increases the relative price of consumption per person in retirement, which tends to decrease optimal consumption for retirees of both skill types. Nevertheless, it is also shown that the optimal marginal income tax rates are independent of the rate of population growth. In addition, the steady-state interest rate unambiguously declines when the rate of population growth declines. Resulting adjustments in production plans have an ambiguous effect on the aggregate wage rate. This article identifies factors contributing to an increase in the aggregate wage when the population ages, namely normality of consumption in retirement, complementarity between capital and labor in production, and a large capital deepening effect relative to the increase in dependency owing to demographic change. Depending on the sign of this wage effect, ambiguities may arise in the direction of change in the optimal steady-state consumption and production plans. However, when the dependency effect is sufficiently strong, it is possible to sign the direction of change in all production and consumption plans. Moreover, regardless of the direction of change in optimal consumption plans, the absolute value of the changes in consumption plans are smaller for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled when utility is time-separable and preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion. Adopting, instead, a quasilinear-in-consumption specification of preferences sharpens the comparative statics of consumption allocations, but introduces ambiguity into the effect of the rate of population growth on the optimal marginal income tax rate.     

On the employment effects of productivity shocks: The role of inventories, demand elasticity, and sticky prices

Whether technological progress raises or lowers employment in the short run has been the subject of much debate in the recent years. We show that cross-industry differences in inventory holding costs, demand elasticities, and price rigidities potentially all affect employment decisions in the face of productivity shocks. In particular, the employment response to a permanent productivity shock is more likely to be positive the less costly it is to hold inventories, the more elastic industry demand is, and the more flexible prices are. Using data on 458 4-digit U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1958-1996, we find statistically significant effects of variations in inventory holdings and demand elasticities on short-run employment responses, but less conclusive evidence pertaining to the effects of measured price stickiness.     

The future of employment supply and demand in social Europe

The assessment of employment prospects during the period up to 2020 needs to take into account the effects of the 2008/2009 downturn. We propose two scenarios that capture distinctive trajectories in order to elucidate some of the potential strategic demands for future employment policy. We forecast the average level of education of the working-age population will increase significantly during this decade and therefore the mismatch between the needs and supply of skills is likely to be significantly reduced. Furthermore, the inherent mobility of the working population will increase together with higher levels of education.     

The impact of the U.S. employment report on exchange rates

The impact of the U.S. Employment Report and analyst forecasts of that report’s major statistics on Pound/Dollar, Yen/Dollar, and Euro/Dollar exchange rates are explored. While the nonfarm payroll employment figure has the greatest impact, we find that the exchange rates also react to the announced revision to last month’s payroll figure and to the unemployment rate. In all three markets, the exchange rate response to the payroll employment figure is strongly conditioned on pre-release analyst uncertainty. The median analyst forecast from Bloomberg anticipates over 80% of the monthly variation in the payroll figure and is basically unbiased. The markets appear to respond to these analyst forecasts prior to the government release. Analyst forecast dispersion tends to increase following large forecast errors indicating that when the announced figure is far from what analysts expected, they tend to disagree on the implications for future payroll levels.     

Professional mismanagement: The skill wastage in employment

Absenteeism and overmanning occur in management too, as do collusive games that give a false impression of the manager's worth and the professional's relevance. New forms of employment contract are one way to alleviate the problem.     

Cross-border acquisitions and employment policies

Using novel firm-level data on employment quality in an international sample of M&A deals, this paper investigates the cost-benefit trade-off faced by acquirers when providing generous employment policies. We find that shareholders react more positively to deal announcements by acquirers providing generous employee incentives when the deal is domestic, but negatively when the deal is cross-border. These effects are primarily driven by the provision of monetary incentives and are strongest for firms in skilled industries. We argue that generous employment policies increase synergy gains and reduce labor adjustment costs in a domestic takeover. In cross-border deals, however, costs associated with managing employee policies across borders and lack of opportunities for eliminating work duplication negatively affect acquirer returns. Nevertheless, we find that country-specific acquisition experience can mitigate these negative effects. Our results cannot be explained by country-level labor regulations or by target-level employment policies.     

Monitoring technical change and employment

In October 1981 the UK Manpower Services Commission approached the Technology Policy Unit of the University of Aston with the idea of establishing a ‘technology monitor’ to research into the introduction of new technology and its implications on employment and skills. The monitor was to look at specific short-term changes (over five to ten years) in employment levels and patterns that would be of relevance to policy makers in the manpower field. The author, who has led this research, describes the setting up of the monitor, its major aims and possible future developments.     

Inventories, employment and hours

This paper develops a model that integrates inventory and labor decisions. We extend a model of inventory behavior to include a detailed specification of the role of labor input in the production process, distinguishing between employment, hours and effort per worker. We estimate jointly the Euler equations for inventories and employment, a labor compensation schedule, and an hours requirement function with the cross-equation restrictions imposed. The econometric results shed light on several important topics, including the shape of the marginal cost of output, the role of labor hoarding as an explanation of pro-cyclical productivity, and the persistence of inventory stocks.