中国股市晴雨表功能的长短期表现分析

本文以1995—2019年A股上市公司数据为样本,借鉴历史维度与国际股市比较分析,基于长期与短期、存量与增量视角,探讨股票指数与实体经济之间的关联性,论述中国股市晴雨表效应的特点与问题。研究结果表明:从长期均衡看,中国股指能够反映宏观经济发展趋势,但部分阶段存在背离现象;从短期波动看,股指相关性偏弱,预测性不强,股市晴雨表效应不仅弱于美国和德国等发达国家,甚至不及俄罗斯与印度等金砖国家。从存量看,大量亏损以及缺乏盈利能力的上市公司未能及时出清,较大程度影响股指代表性;从增量看,很多选择境外上市的新兴企业,并未包含在现行股指中,由此降低股市整体估值水平与股指质量。本文借助万得全A指数降低权重股对总股指的牵制作用,选择申万绩优股指数作为领先指标,但并不能提升股指短期波动对宏观经济的预测与警示作用,晴雨表效应未见明显改善,说明股指代表性的提升,并不能有效降低短期情绪面和政策面带来的较大扰动。依据实证结果,本文建议在存量方面尽快完善退市机制,在增量方面加快注册制改革步伐,引导更多优质潜力企业在A股上市,同时吸引中概股回归,以此提升上市公司质量和股指代表性,从而更为客观反映实体经济发展情况。此外还要大量引入中长期资金入市,增强外部机构投资者力量,助力股市短期波动回归经济基本面,促进其晴雨表作用的充分发挥。     

Targeting the biotechnology clusters in North Carolina and Israel: lessons from successful and unsuccessful policy making

This paper analyses the development of biotechnology clusters in North Carolina (NC) and Israel. In both NC and Israel, when the biotechnology was identified as a potential strategic priority, the framework conditions were suitable for successful policy-targeting. NC presents a case of a successful transition from a traditional manufacturing economy to a knowledge economy. The most successful part of this transition was a policy-led development of a biotechnology cluster in the Research Triangle. While Israel also presents a case of a successful transition from a low-tech economy to a knowledge-intensive economy, Israel failed to develop a successful biotechnology cluster. We suggest that this failure is mostly due to a failure to implement policy to encourage such development. We argue that the elements, which separate NC's success from Israel's failure, are: a clear vision and strategic planning; timely response, long-term commitment; strong leadership; cooperation between the government, private sector and academia, and an adjustable policy-making process.     

Moore's law and price trends of digital products: the case of smartphones

ABSTRACT

Since the introduction of the iPhone by Apple in 2007 and Google's Android platform in 2009, the two systems have accounted for a total of 90% of the U.S. smartphone market. Apple, however, reaps most of the profit in the industry. In the second quarter of 2016, for example, Apple's iPhone gets 104% of the sector's profit. This suggests that the smartphone market resembles a Stackelberg leadership model. Despite Apple's strong market power, we investigate if the market leader is under pressure to be price competitive. We calculate a quality-adjusted price index for smartphones from 2007 to 2016. Our results show that the average price declines at an average rate of over 27% per year. The price trend is similar to other digit products such as computers, cameras, and portable music players. We observe that the large price decline reflects the effect of Moore's law, which predicts that the capacity of integrated circuits undergoes an exponential growth. The effect of Moore's law is incorporated into the Stackelberg model. We also observe that price trends of other digital products also follow a similar pattern. This suggest that the long-run price trends of digital consumer goods are somewhat independent of the market structures.     

The Anglo-Irish context for William Edward Hearn's economic beliefs and the ultimate failure of his Plutology

Abstract

William Edward Hearn is generally regarded as Australia's first economist of international note and his Plutology ([1863]1864) is invariably deemed to be Australia's first economics text. In this paper I argue that it is more appropriate to describe Hearn as an Anglo-Irish economist and, to this end, provide the Anglo-Irish context for the economic doctrines that he expressed in Plutology and elsewhere. I also argue that the failure of Plutology in the market place was, in part, due to a campaign waged against Hearn in London by John Elliot Cairnes, who was an undergraduate contemporary of Hearn's at Trinity College, Dublin.     

Perspectives on Michael A. Bernstein's A Perilous Progress: Economists and Public Purpose in Twentieth-Century America *

The article compares Joseph Schumpeter's well-known perspectives of long term economic development with those put forward in the 1920's by the German economist Werner Sombart who followed an approach of ‘theoretical historicism’. There was general agreement between Schumpeter and Sombart that capitalism as an economic system was on the decline. Whereas according to Sombart this was attributable to a tendancy towards stagnation; in Schumpeter's view capitalism was doomed due to its success, not for its failure. The strongest parallels are to be found with respect to forces driving the transformation process, at the end of which Schumpeter expected a socialist system whereas Sombart envisioned some kind of mixed economy. The article also discusses the relevance of differences of approaches and of value judgments for the results of both authors' investigations.     

Russian oil: the role of the sector in Russia's economy

Russia's oil sector is critical to the country's overall economic development at present and may affect the whole Russian economy in the next several years. Nevertheless, like all other energy sectors in the Russian Federation, it faces a number of problems, including low domestic prices, a poor regulatory framework, little competition, underinvestment and environmental failure. There is little know‐ledge of the real needs and problems of the sector, including high production costs, weak transport infrastructure, low investment and obsolete technical equipment, but instead there is permanent political pressure to increase the tax burden. In this context the analysis presented in the article contributes to ongoing discussions and presents a number of numerical estimations relating to the current situation of the oil sector in Russia, including overall sector revenue, cost estimates, total tax burden, present level of investment etc., and simulations of the situation in the sector under different future oil price scenarios.     

The Roles of Independent Research and Technology Organizations in the United Kingdom's Technology Transfer Mechanism to SMEs

Independent Research and Technology Organizations (RTOs) provide an increasing proportion of the UK's technology services requirements. RTOs, often former state research establishments spun out into the private sector, provide technology consulting and networking services to specific sectors or for generic technologies; some are membership-based organizations while others work for contract clients. In this paper we explore the roles and services provided by RTOs, together with the measures being taken to assist small firms that, for many RTOs, form a new and challenging market. The diversity of services and approaches to SMEs are related, in part, to the different origins of RTOs. The research indicates three forms of technology services market failure that suggest a need for ongoing external support for the market's mechanism.     

Bulgaria's Long March Towards Meaningful Credit Contracts

This article is based on the hypothesis that the development of creditors' remedies and their actual practicability is a good yardstick for progress towards the rule of law. According to this measure Bulgaria achieved little progress throughout much of the 1990s, but this improved significantly after 1997. Legal reforms were only one among several factors driving this progress; among the others were macroeconomic stabilisation, privatisation, the disintegration of trade unions and the ultimate failure of attempts to keep most of the socialist giants alive. Only the recognition of this failure facilitated some crucial reforms; nevertheless these reforms have been too halfhearted to put creditors' rights on a secure footing. In actual fact debtors have remained a very well protected group.     

A theory of self-fulfilling political expectations

In their pursuit of being re-elected, politicians might not choose high-quality policies but just conform to popular wisdom. The larger are the office spoils, and the more precise is an incumbent's knowledge of voter opinion, the more likely that she will resort to such populism. My main result is that the public's trust or distrust in politicians' behavior may be self-fulfilling. When voters assess the quality of an incumbent politician, they will compare her policy choices with their own prior opinion. If voters think that the incumbent was just trying to conform, a failure to do so will be even more damaging for the incumbent's election chances. However, this only increases the incumbent's incentives to conform, which indeed confirm voters' skepticism. Loosely put, a skeptic voter attitude tends to generate conformist politicians, while a trusting attitude tends to generate confident ones.     

Say's involvement in the 1819 French edition of Ricardo's Principles and the issue of rent

This paper focuses on Say's contribution to the first French edition of Ricardo's Principles and on the analytical consequences of his involvement on the issue of rent. Part one investigates the “story” of this edition. It stresses Say's friendship with the translator, his involvement in this publication and his attitude toward Ricardo. Part two analyses how elements from Say's thought were introduced into Ricardo's theory of rent through this edition. These elements conveyed ideas which were definitely at odds with Ricardo's theory and misrepresented Ricardo's true concept of differential rent which was central to his theory.     

Can a Dictator Turn a Constitution into a Can-opener? F.A. Hayek and the Alchemy of Transitional Dictatorship in Chile

Commenting on the Pinochet regime, Friedrich Hayek famously claimed in 1981 that he would prefer a ‘liberal’ dictator to ‘democratic government lacking liberalism.’ Hayek's defense of a transitional dictatorship in Chile was not an impromptu response. In late 1960, in a little known BBC radio broadcast, Hayek suggested that a dictatorial regime may be able to facilitate a transition to stable limited democracy. While Hayek's comments about Pinochet have generated much controversy, this paper neither provides a blanket condemnation of his views (he did not advocate dictatorship as a first-best ‘state of the world’) nor tries to excuse his failure to condemn the Pinochet junta's human rights abuses, but instead provides a critical assessment of Hayek's implicit model of transitional dictatorship.     

创业失败态度、创业失败学习与连续创业

围绕创业失败学习,分析创业失败态度对创业失败学习的影响及创业者的控制点对两者关系的调节作用,并根据经验学习理论,探究创业失败学习对连续创业意向和连续创业绩效的不同影响.对有过创业失败经历的创业者进行问卷调查,基于问卷数据进行实证分析,结果表明:创业者的创业失败态度与创业失败学习有显著的正向关系,创业者的控制点对两者关系的调节作用不显著;创业失败学习对连续创业意向的影响不显著,但能够显著提高连续创业绩效.研究结论丰富了对创业失败学习的前因和结果变量的研究,有助于加深对创业失败学习价值的认识.     

Currency substitution and nonlinear error correction in Taiwan's demand for broad money

We modify the conventional money demand function by including a real exchange rate variable to reflect the effect of currency substitution. Empirical evidence indicates that the variable is crucial to the long-run stability of Taiwan's money demand. After finding the failure of a linear error-correction model (ECM) in describing the dynamics of Taiwan's money demand, we apply a nonlinear ECM to examine its dynamics and support the appropriateness of the nonlinear model empirically.     

Fundamentals of Myanmar's Macroeconomy: A Political Economy Perspective

The serial underperformer of the region, Myanmar's economy is largely without the institutions and qualities necessary to achieve genuine economic growth. This paper explores the fundamentals of Myanmar's economy, from a perspective that emphasizes policy and institutional failure as the principal determinants of the country's present circumstances. The paper explores Myanmar's economy in a multifaceted way, examining concerns over economic growth, public finances, monetary and financial policies, corruption, and international trade. Notwithstanding the change in the form of Myanmar's governing institutions following the elections of November 2010, the paper concludes pessimistically as to the likelihood of meaningful economic reform in the foreseeable future.     

Vilfredo Pareto on Labor: A Critical Re-examination

This article comprehensively examines Vilfredo Pareto's thoughts on labor and highlights their significance within his body of work. Like the other pioneers in neoclassical economics, Pareto disregarded worker subjectivity toward labor performance and the resulting variability in the substance of labor. Thus emasculating the human traits of labor, in his theory of pure economics, Pareto identified the nature of labor exchange with that of the exchange of nonhuman objects, thereby subsuming the former under his general equilibrium system. This neoclassical principle of rationalizing the market determination of labor exchange on its deindividuation governed Pareto's speculations throughout his work. Even his arguments in applied economics in favor of worker solidarity and strikes were grounded on this principle. It remained the basis for Pareto's opinions on actual labor relations. Pareto's frustration here turned him into an anti-unionist, but it also helped to mold his prime ideas regarding sociology and his awareness of the limits of economics. However, Pareto's adherence to his former concept of labor exchange contradicting its nature became a chief cause of his failure to integrate his economic thinking with its sociological counterpart and occasioned his sympathy with Fascism. Thus, this article concludes that Pareto's thoughts on labor profoundly affected his entire body of thought and that their flaw is not exclusive to him but inherent in neoclassical economics.     

Professor Fisher and the quantity theory – a significant encounter

Abstract

Irving Fisher's encounter with the Quantity Theory of Money began in the 1890s, during the debate about bimetallism, and reached its high point in 1911 with the publication of The Purchasing Power of Money. His most important refinement of the theory, derived from his recognition of bank deposits as means of exchange, was to treat their out of equilibrium recursive interaction with inflation as integral to it. This treatment underlay both his 1920s work on the business cycle as a “dance of the dollar” and his advocacy of subjecting monetary policy to a legislated price stability rule, initially to be based on his “compensated dollar” scheme. Fisher's failure to recognise the onset of the Great Depression even as it was happening was directly related to his faith in the quantity theory's seeming implication that price level stability in and of itself guaranteed the continuation of prosperity, while his subsequent work on the debt deflation theory of great depressions initially failed to repair the damage that this failure did to his reputation, and to that of the quantity theory. In the 1930s Fisher nevertheless remained an active supporter of various schemes to reflate and then stabilise the price level. His subsequent influence on the quantity theory based Monetarist counter-revolution that began in the 1950s lay, directly, in its deployment of his analysis of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, and, indirectly, in its espousal of the case for subjecting monetary policy to a legislated rule.     

Sidgwick and Edgeworth on indeterminacy in the labour market

Commentators have underlined Sidgwick's influence on Edgeworth's thinking and more particularly on New and Old Methods of Ethics (1877). But have failed to notice that Sidgwick remained a major reference in Mathematical Psychics (1881). Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to show that, in this book, Edgeworth wanted to refine upon the problem of wages addressed by Sidgwick in 1879. The thesis of the paper is that Sidgwick and Edgeworth's disagreement as to the role of open competition in the resolution of indeterminacy in the labour market stems from two different notions of competition. This latter can be seen as a differentiation process, as in Sidgwick's, or as a replication mechanism, as in Edgeworth's.     

The Institutional Theory of Radhamakal Mukerjee: Lessons for Modern Nonprofit Economics

This paper examines the way the institutional economics of Radhamakal Mukerjee can inform modern nonprofit economics. A brief survey of Mukerjee's work highlights several elements of his theory that yield useful implications understanding the nonprofit sector. First, Mukerjee's theory implies that this sector's role is in helping the economies to better accommodate broader societal values, rather than in addressing market failure. Second, his theory suggests that the nonprofit sector provides an institutional framework for the pursuit of common interests that are not reducible to individual utility maximization. Finally, as he considered the state to be inherently coercive, he believed the nonprofit sector to be the only meaningful outlet for citizenship behavior, thus advancing an original theory of complementary state-nonprofit relationship. The paper concludes with calling for more institutionalist research on the economics of the nonprofit sector.     

新时代儿童健康教育体系协同治理研究

儿童健康是国家健康的起点与基础,是提升劳动力素质与人口质量的关键环节,而开展儿童健康教育是实现儿童健康的必要路径。在新时代背景下,从健康资本、健康均等受益维度出发,构建与完善协同发展的儿童健康教育体系,加大政府、学校、家庭、社会融合协调的参与力度,充分发挥针对儿童的健康教育机制作用,对促进儿童的健康成长,实现健康国家战略具有重要的意义。本文在对我国儿童健康教育的发展现状进行全面概括的基础上,深入剖析我国儿童健康教育体系发展所面临的困境与挑战,并相应提出了我国儿童健康教育体系协同治理及发展的政策建议：(1)将大健康的儿童健康教育理念渗入到儿童健康教育长远规划中去;(2)建立促进多元主体共同协同治理的机制,建立以儿童为中心的儿童健康教育协同发展体系;(3)优化儿童健康教育的协同治理路径,完善一体化儿童健康教育体系构建的协同治理工具;(4)科学的识别机制,细分儿童健康教育服务需求;(5)完善儿童健康保障相关的法律规范,建立儿童健康教育体系的监督反馈评估机制;(6)提升儿童健康教育服务能力,尤其关注儿童心理及社会健康教育,建立健全儿童健康教育服务递送体系。     

Human capital and life satisfaction in economic transition

This study explores the life satisfaction of Egyptians – with a particular focus on the impact of higher education on happiness – both before and after that country's Arab Spring of 2011. Ordered logit results point to positive and significant relationships between life satisfaction and both perceived high incomes and the human capital variable, good health, for the pre- and post-Arab Spring periods in Egypt, thus confirming prior studies of transition economies. For a second human capital variable – secondary education – the results indicate a positive and significant relationship with happiness in pre-Arab Spring Egypt, while that relationship for post-Arab Spring Egypt is negative and significant. This particular finding is probably the result of the failure of educated Egyptians to achieve a better life despite their investments in human capital – due to the lack of opportunity that accompanied the failure of the country's Arab Spring to change the political and social environment.