Regional foreign banks and financial inclusion: Evidence from Africa

Regional foreign banks expanded quickly over the past decade in developing and emerging countries and have a growing influence in banking systems. We question whether the development of African regional foreign banks, also called Pan-African banks, influences financial inclusion of firms and households. To this end, we combine the World Bank Global Findex database and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys with a hand-collected database on the presence of regional foreign banks. We find that Pan-African banks presence increases firms’ access to credit and limited evidence that they favor financial access of the middle class by restoring confidence in banks. We suggest that this impact is related to the adoption of an aggressive strategy aiming at gaining market shares rather than through the exploitation of informational and technological advantages.     

Household debt and spending during the financial crisis: Evidence from Danish micro data

We use data for nearly 500,000 Danish households to study the relationship between household leverage prior to the financial crisis of 2007–2009 and the development in spending over the course of the crisis. We find a strong negative correlation between pre-crisis leverage and the change in spending during the crisis. This reflects that highly levered households spent a larger share of their income than their less-levered peers prior to the crisis, resulting in larger increases in debt in these years. Once we condition on the size of the pre-crisis change in debt, a high level of debt is no longer associated with a larger spending decline. Our results suggest that the larger decline in spending among high-leverage households is the result of a spending normalization pattern that is also found in other years, rather than a causal effect of high debt levels suppressing household spending during the crisis.     

Wealth inequality and financial inclusion: Evidence from South African tax and survey records

Theoretical models show that financial inclusion reduces wealth inequality. Existing empirical models are restricted to estimates using income inequality because of a lack of cross country wealth inequality data. We used 2010-11 and 2014-5 waves of the National Income Dynamics Study combined with South African tax records to estimate wealth and income inequality. Using Re-centered Influence Function regressions on the micro-level records, we confirmed the negative cross-country relationship between financial inclusion and income inequality. Wealth inequality is different. Financial inclusion improved wealth shares of only the middle class. Because of predatory lending, expansion of credit reduced the wealth share of the poor. Improved savings by the middle class, providing better oversight over financial services targeted at the poor and removing impediments to the small business sector are pre-conditions for financial inclusion to reduce wealth inequality.     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Crime: Evidence from India

This paper examines the relationship between crime, inflation, unemployment, and real GDP per capita in India. Based on the national-level data, the Johansen cointegration test confirms the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test suggests that macroeconomic indicators, especially unemployment, can significantly affect crime in India. Based on the state-level data, the ordinary least squares results corroborate the effect of inflation on crime even after controlling for governance. However, they fail to verify the relationship between crime, unemployment, and real GDP per capita.

     

Remittance and financial inclusion in refugee migrants: inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the impact on remittances on financial inclusion of refugee migrants. While financial inclusion is gaining traction in the humanitarian and development literature, the linkage with the potential to improve the wellbeing of refugees, who are part of an upward spiral in numbers, has not been tackled. We examine World Bank survey data of 1041 Syrian refugees, using the inverse probability of treatment weighting propensity score analysis (IPTW). The method minimises the influence of outliers and addresses unobservable and missing data biases, which can plague survey based data. We observe that common indicators of financial inclusion when applied to refugees, given their limited access to formal financial services, may introduce a bias as the informal financial sector and excluded formal financial sector services do contribute to inclusiveness. We adopt a broader protocol for our data, measuring financial inclusion through six metrics stemming from G20 proposals. Overall, there is an opportunity to deepen financial inclusion for refugees who receive or send remittances. The possibility of expanding the financial inclusion options, and for this to percolate through to greater social inclusion, proffers practical commercial steps and policy enabling actions.     

The impact of formal financial inclusion on informal financial intermediation and cash preference: evidence from Africa

This paper examines the effect of formal financial intermediation (inclusion) on informal financial intermediation and the use of cash for economic activities. Using data from the Global Findex 2014, we examine whether the use of formal financial intermediaries reduces cash preference and the use of informal financial intermediaries. Our empirical results show that informal financial intermediation is positively associated with formal financial inclusion. This indicates that the relationship between informal and formal financial intermediation is complementary rather than a trade-off, which demonstrates the importance of informal finance plays in the financial system of Africa. Moreover, the use of formal financial intermediaries significantly reduces the preference for holding cash, implying that a robust financial system infrastructure has the potential of mobilizing excess liquidity in the informal economy of Africa for growth and development.     

Financial inclusion: measurement,spatial effects and influencing factors

Using the index of financial inclusion and the World Bank Global Findex database, this study measures the level of financial inclusion across countries. The results reveal a geographical spatial aggregation distribution in which developed European and North American countries enjoy higher levels of financial inclusion than the less developed countries of Africa and most of Asia. Accordingly, our spatial analysis proves our hypothesis and reveals dependence and aggregation effects among countries. Then, we employ spatial econometric research to identify those factors significantly associated with financial inclusion. The results show that an individual’s income, education and use of communications equipment are important factors that explain the level of financial inclusion, while financial depth and banking health status are the main determinants. Building an inclusive financial system is an important means for most countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India

Abstract

Exchange rate stability is crucial for inflation management as a stable rate is expected to reduce domestic inflation pressures through a ‘policy discipline effect’ – restricting money supply growth, and a ‘credibility effect’ – inducing higher money demand and reduced velocity of money. Alternatively, the ‘impossibility trillema’ of Mundell (1961a Mundell, R. A. (1961a). Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 29, 475–485. doi: 10.2307/139336[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1961b Mundell, R. A. (1961b). Flexible exchange rates and employment policy. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 27, 509–517. doi: 10.2307/139437[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) predicts that in the presence of an open capital account, a stable exchange rate may lead to lack of control on monetary policy and, hence, higher inflation. Using a monetary model of Inflation, this paper investigates the impact of the ‘empirically-claimed’ de facto stable exchange rate regime on inflation in India during different sub-periods of exchange rate stability. The results show that the impact of exchange rate regime on inflation is not visible in the Indian case, which could be because of the offsetting sterilization policy undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during expansionary money supply growth resulting from its large-scale intervention to even out exchange rate volatility.     

开放经济中的金融安全问题及其保障对策

在开放经济体系中，金融安全至关重要，它构成了产业安全的核心内容。一般认为，金融安全是指一国能够抵御内外冲击保持金融秩序和金融体系正常运行与发展的状态以反维持这种状态的能力和对这种状态与维持能力的信心与主观感觉，包括在这种状态和能力下所获得的政治、金融制度和体系的安全、金融财富的安全、金融机构的安全、金融发展的安全，对整体经济和政治安全起决定性作用的金融运行的安全等。发展中国家尤其应当重视金融安全问题，通过各种有效的措施积极防范和化解金融风险，保障金融安全。     

Sex,language and financial inclusion*

Reference to gender in language can lead individuals to draw distinctions between genders and reinforce traditional views of gender roles. To test our hypothesis that language gender marking exerts an influence on the gender gap in financial inclusion, we draw on data for 117 countries in the World Bank's Global Findex database and perform logit estimations at the individual level. We find the gender gap in the probability of owning a formal account, having access to a formal credit, as well as having savings in a formal financial institution is higher for countries with gendered languages than for countries with genderless languages. These findings are confirmed in robustness checks that control for alternative measures of culture and estimations at the country level.     

Effect of the global financial meltdown on India’s aggregate export volumes

ABSTRACT

This paper sets up a demand-supply model to analyse India’s export performance (in terms of volumes rather than values) between 2000Q1–2014Q4. The main objective is to determine the impact of the financial meltdown of 2008 on India’s export performance. During the meltdown period, decline in price by India’s competitors in the international market resulted in (1) loss of competitiveness of India’s export goods and (2) a complete breakdown of the price mechanism affecting India’s export demand. Though export supply was not significantly affected by the meltdown episode we find evidence that exporting firms turned towards the domestic market to cope with the loss in export. The meltdown episode began to significantly affect India’s export demand and supply equations from 2009Q3. The demand and supply equations after that period became so unstable that ‘nothing worked’ for India’s exporters as they tried to counter the decline in export. Hence there was ample reason for them to panic and seek the government’s help. Government policies aimed at boosting export demand did have a positive impact on India’s export performance. Government policies to boost export supply had no impact except being palliative for the exporters at their moment of crisis     

Financial inclusion and poverty: a tale of forty-five thousand households

ABSTRACT

Using a new nationally representative survey data covering approximately 45,000 Indian households, we examine the effects of financial inclusion on poverty. We construct a multidimensional indicator of financial inclusion and examine the effects of financial inclusion on multiple measures of poverty including the household Poverty Probability Index (PPI), household deprivation scores, and poverty line. We find that financial inclusion has a strong poverty-reducing effect. This finding is consistent across the different measures of poverty used, and alternative ways of measures financial inclusion. These results underpin the importance of financial inclusion and the need for its promotion across countries.     

金融生态环境视角的非正规金融生态状况研究

运用金融生态理论,从金融生态环境角度分析非正规金融存在的经济基础、非正式制度的作用、法制环境以及金融生态的自我调节机制.可以认为中小企业和个私经济是非正规金融存在的经济基础;善于利用社会传统和习俗等非正式制度进行有效的风险控制是相对正规金融的优势;非正规金融没有合法地位,经营方式隐蔽,处于监管之外,导致金融风险隐患的形成;非正规金融市场化的利率机制会产生某些负效应.针对非正规金融生态上述现状,提出相应政策建议.     

南亚三国农村金融实践及其对我国的启示

通过改善农村金融服务以促进农村脱贫与发展已经成为世界各国之共识,广大发展中国家在这方面进行了艰辛的探索。在研究大量国外第一手资料的基础上,对印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国三个南亚国家农村金融实践进行了比较全面的考察,总结分析了构建有效的农村金融服务体系的基本经验和要求,提出了深化我国农村金融改革的具体建议。     

The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China

Using panel data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) in 2013, 2015, and 2017 and the digital inclusive finance index developed by Peking University, this study examined impacts of the digital inclusive finance on household consumption and explored its mechanisms. Results suggest that the digital inclusive finance could promote households consumption. A heterogeneity analysis showed that households with fewer assets, lower income, less financial literacy and in third- and fourth-tier cities experienced larger facilitating effects of digital finance on consumption compared to their counterparts. For consumption categories, digital finance was positively correlated with food, clothing, house maintenance, medical care, and education and entertainment expenditures. In terms of consumption structure, digital finance mainly promoted the recurring household expenditures rather than the non-recurring expenditures. Further analyses based on the mediating model found that online shopping, digital payment, obtainment of online credit, purchase of financing products on the internet and business insurance, were the main mediating variables through which digital finance affected household consumption.     

Micro and macroeconomic effects of financial innovation in a domestic and international perspective

This paper is focused on the rise and the fall of structured finance, derivatives, and asset-backed securities. Special focus is made on the attempts of the banking sector to improve the economic performance, particularly the ROE, by creating, acquiring, and selling derivatives. The possible outcome of public intervention to rescue the financial sector is finally discussed. V. Coppola supported the research in collecting and elaborating data.     

Structural Problems in Financing Development: Issues Relating to India

This paper argues that the process of financing development in India increased the fragility of the financial market. Consequently, the need arose for the government to implement policies that would reduce that fragility, and also to introduce strong enforceable bankruptcy laws, in order to prevent the emergence of corruption. It appears that the recent capital market reform did not give adequate attention to reducing the fragility of the financial market.     

正规金融、非正规金融对家户福利的影响——来自中国农村的证据

金融抑制是发展中国家所面临的重要约束,其可能给家户福利和生产活动带来损失。金融约束不仅来自于正规金融,也来自于非正规金融。利用区域转换模型,本文从两个方面论证了正规金融与非正规金融对家户福利的不同作用。实证分析表明,正规金融约束的家户采用新的农业生产技术受到限制,非农经营的效应也更低,而社会资本在一定程度上对正规金融形成了替代,弥补了其部分功能。受到非正规金融约束的家户,社会资本的功能被弱化,但采用新的农业生产技术的作用以及参与农业生产合作组织的作用由于得到正规金融的支持而更强。正规金融与非正规金融大致存在一种替代关系,农村正规金融在满足生产发展尤其是非农业生产发展的需要方面发挥着重要作用,而基于社会资本的非正规金融主要对于缓冲收入冲击起着更重要的作用。     

Reducing farmers' poverty vulnerability in China: The role of digital financial inclusion

This paper applies exogenous shocks to investigate the impact of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on farmers' poverty vulnerability in China. We find that farmers in highly developed DFI areas are less vulnerable to the poverty trap. The result is robust to various checks, including propensity score matching and difference-in-differences method and the instrumental variable approach. Moreover, we find that income diversification is the possible economic channel through which DFI affects farmers' poverty vulnerability. Further analyses show that DFI has a “targeting” effect on those who are poor and vulnerable, and a synergistic effect by working with medical insurance and informal finance in terms of reducing farmers' poverty vulnerability. Our research findings provide new theoretical insights and useful guidance in enhancing financial inclusiveness and sustainable development in the post-COVID-19 era.