The sooner,the better: The economic impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper estimates the economic impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and calibrate these measures to estimate the magnitude of the economic impact. To address the potential endogeneity in the introduction of NPIs, we instrument their stringency by the extent of a country's social ties to China. The results suggest that the NPIs led to a decline of about 10% in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short-term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. Moreover, there is evidence that COVID-19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of labor market interventions on reducing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper evaluates whether different labor market policy interventions taken in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been effective in reducing its adverse impacts. We construct a database covering 165 countries and 39 labor market interventions grouped into four pillars: stimulating the economy and jobs (pillar 1); supporting enterprises, employment, and incomes (pillar 2); protecting workers (pillar 3); and social dialogue (pillar 4). The results revealed that measures taken under pillars 1, 2, and 3 have reduced the impacts of the pandemic on economic growth; measures under pillar 4 were significantly associated with reducing its impacts on employment and those under pillar 2 with reducing its impacts on working hours.     

The impact of health sector on R&D,economic growth and wages

We extend the existing R&D growth literature by focusing on the short-, medium-, long-run effects of the health sector on R&D intensity, economic growth and wages, and by considering 21 OECD countries between 1991 and 2008. We show that: (i) there is a unique and stable steady state; (ii) an increase in health-labour share in skilled population has no effect on growth, but affects negatively (positively) the R&D intensity (the skill premium); (iii) Anglo–Saxons countries have the lowest health-labour share in skilled-labour population, and Nordic countries have the lowest skill premium and the highest consumption/production of healthcare per capita.     

On the economic impacts of COVID-19: A text mining literature analysis

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected everyday lives worldwide. As governments started to implement confinement and business closure measures, the economic impact was felt by entire societies immediately. The urgency of such a theme has led researchers to study the phenomenon. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to provide the state of the art on relevant dimensions and hot topics of research to understand the economic impacts of COVID-19. In this survey, we conduct a text mining analysis of 301 articles published during 2020 which analyzed such economic impacts. By defining a set of relevant dimensions grounded on existing literature, we were able to extract a set of coherent topics that aggregate the collected articles, characterized by the predominance of a few sets of dimensions. We found that the impact on “financial markets” was widely studied, especially in relation to Asia. Next, we found a more diverse range of themes analyzed in Europe, from “government measures” to “macroeconomic variables.” We also discovered that America has not received the same degree of attention, and “institutions,” “Africa,” or “other pandemics” were studied less. We anticipate that future research will proliferate focusing on several themes, from environmental issues to the effectiveness of government measures.     

An empirical characterization of the effects of public debt on economic growth

Based on a data set of 115 economies, this article empirically investigates the relation between public debt and economic growth. Using the World Bank’s classification for income groups, we initially find that those countries that present the lowest public debt are characterized by the highest economic growth, while the smallest growth rates are associated with the highest public debt. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyse the countries by income level: low-income countries have a different behaviour with respect to lower-middle, upper-middle and high-income countries. When using the IMF’s country classification, the results do not suggest a clear pattern in the public debt–economic growth nexus across different countries, but indicate a heterogeneous relationship between such key macroeconomic variables.     

Examining SNAP and TANF caseload trends,responsiveness, and policies during the COVID-19 pandemic

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) cases increased by 3.3 million between March and June 2020, their largest quarterly increase ever. During the pandemic, many states adopted a wide set of policies and procedures to facilitate program enrollment, retention, and eligibility. I track these policies and create a pandemic policy index measuring state generosity. States that adopted more generous policies experienced larger TANF and SNAP caseload growth, especially eligibility policies such as exempting TANF work requirements or SNAP P-EBT availability. Analyzing the caseload relationship to labor markets, caseloads were less responsive to unemployment rate changes during the pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period.     

Performance budgeting: effects on government debt and economic growth

This article examines the effects of performance budgeting on government debt and economic growth rates. The results show that countries with a higher share of ministries using performance targets in budget negotiation tend to have lower government debt and higher GDP growth rates. A simple fixed-effect model shows similar results. The evidence suggests that these results hold only in those countries with relatively lower corruption.     

Housing affordability and responses during times of stress: A preliminary look during the COVID-19 pandemic

The global SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 Pandemic has disrupted public health, economies, and housing markets since early 2020. The shock has called forth a number of policy responses, such as moratoria on foreclosures and evictions, attempts to regulate rents and prices, and a range of subsidies on both supply and demand sides. This paper reviews the state of housing markets and discusses the expected efficacy of alternative policy measures taken or contemplated. Recognizing the provisional nature of any paper written during a large and durable ongoing shock, suggestions for additional research are provided.     

This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis

Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a “this time truly is different” moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995–2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020–2021) did more to counteract the downturn – especially in the Eurozone –, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.     

The interactive effects of human capital and quality of life on economic growth

To bridge the gap in the quality of life (QOL) and economic growth literature and understand the reinforcing effects of QOL and human capital on economic development, we examine the interactive effects of these two factors on wage growth from 2000 to 2007 at the county level across the United States. First, a Rosen–Roback model is employed to estimate implicit values of amenities including climate, clean air and other natural attributes, which are used to generate QOL indices. Second, QOL, human capital represented by the share of college graduates, and their interaction serve as key variables in the wage growth model. An instrumental variable approach and location fixed effects are used to address endogeneity of human capital and control for location-specific unobservable characteristics. Results suggest that human capital and QOL significantly contribute to economic growth and the growth effects are even larger in nonmetropolitan counties. Importantly, we find that the effect of human capital on growth is larger in high-QOL counties and QOL enhances the effect of human capital on growth. Our results provide empirical support for community development strategies through providing utility-enhancing amenities that improve QOL and retain human capital.     

Endogenicity of economic growth models

In his celebrated 1956 article, “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Solow calibrated the stylized facts of economic growth observed in the Western developed countries and summed up by Kaldor. Solow reconciled steady-state rate of growth of per capita output with constant capital/output and capital/labor ratios by introducing labor augmenting technological progress and measuring physical labor time in efficiency units. A series of articles have appeared since the mid-1980s, which have substantially extended the neoclassical model of growth theory presented by Solow. Most of these are entitled endogenous in juxtaposition to Solow's model, which is considered and often labeled exogenous. The purpose of this article is to show that this dichotomy is not worthwhile by arguing that the way technological progress enters in Solow's model plays a crucial role. Moreover, the designation of a model need not depend on the way it employs just one element among others.     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

The effects of remittances,foreign direct investment,and foreign aid on economic growth: An empirical analysis

The Sustainable Development Goals have refocused attention on ways of providing external finance to support development. Because they have different motivations and work through different modalities, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and official development assistance may be expected to have different consequences for economic growth. Existing empirical evidence suggests that both positive and negative effects are associated with each source of finance. We use both a dynamic panel model and a fixed effects model to calculate the overall effects of each source of finance in isolation and taken together over the period 1976–2015. We include a range of control variables to allow for other potential influences on economic growth. We disaggregate the effects across geographical regions and income levels to test for heterogeneity. We also undertake a series of robustness checks. Our results suggest that FDI has a significant positive effect on economic growth, whereas remittances have a significant and negative effect. The effect of foreign aid is more ambiguous but is usually insignificant. The article offers an interpretation of the results drawing on ideas from the relevant theory.     

关于公共支出与经济增长的国内外研究综述

公共支出与经济增长的关系一直以来为经济学家们所争论。持公共支出促进经济增长观点认为,政府公共支出在经济增长中发挥着重要作用,因为它为经济发展提供了大量的公共品和其他具有外部效应的公共福利或服务,从而鼓励和便利了私人投资,形成了一个较好的投资环境,促进了经济增长。而持反对意见的认为,公共支出往往是生产率较低的,为融通政府支出而形成的高税收又会对私人部门的消费和投资造成很大的负面影响,因此,必须缩减政府支出,才能保证经济增长。当然也有人持两者根本就没有关系的观点。     

Political instability and economic growth

This paper investigates the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950 through 1982. We define political instability as the propensity of a government collapse, and we estimate a model in which such a measure of political instability and economic growth are jointly determined. The main result of this paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise. We also discuss the effects of different types of government changes on growth.     

技术引进与中国经济发展相关性研究

本文以中国人中型企业为背景，分析了技术引进发展的历程和现状，封技术引进和经济增长进行了Granger因果关系和OLS相关性分析。文章分析了技术引追与经济增长在短期、中期和长期的关系，显示两到三年之间技术引进对经济增长能够产生促进作用。     

财政分权与经济增长关系的文献综述

近年来,伴随着我国财政分权实践的不断推进,财政分权理论研究得到众多学者的重视。有关财政分权的理论文献可谓是汗牛充栋,其中不乏对财政分权后果的研究,财政分权与经济增长关系的理论研究和经验研究更是研究的热点之一。但是,相关研究并没有得出一致的结论,财政分权的利弊之争持续不断。因此,有必要对财政分权与经济增长关系的相关文献进行总结和评述,进而获取有益的启发。     

Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective

This article examines the relationship between Population Growth (PG) and Economic Growth (EG) in the framework of simultaneous structural equation models. Based on Lewbel (2012), the structural parameters can be estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Identification requires a heteroscedastic covariance restriction that appears in some models of endogeneity, measurement errors and panel data. This study obtains several findings. First, the current and lagged variables of PG negatively and positively affect EG in the short run. Second, PG does not significantly influence EG in the long run. Third, the reverse relations running from EG to PG are weak in both the short and long run, regardless of economic development conditions.