Linkages and Industrial Policy for Eastern Europe

It is argued that insustrial policy for Eastern Europe is needed in order to reduce the social cost of transition. The industrial policy suggestes is based on unbalanced growth focused on key sectors that, according to linkage analysis, influence the economy more than other sector. An attempt should be made to increase efficency in key sectors, either by new investment or by closing down inefficient enterprises. This strategy could be adopted temporarily, gradually to move away from the existing structure of the economy rather than to reinforce it. In order to illustrate the potential of such an industrial policy, a sector-specific approach has been simulated for Poland using a compuable general equilibuium (CGE) model. The simulation results have shown that macroenonomic performance, measured by output, employment and funds available for invesment, is much better when industrial policy has been concentrated on a key sector.     

Optimal public education policy in a two sector model

Proposing a simple two sector model with occupational choice, this paper analyzes the relationship between optimal public education policy and industrial structure. Workers are employed based on their skills and education policy influences the distribution of human capital. Thus, the industrial structure determines whether an elite education policy or an egalitarian education policy is desirable. In particular, this paper indicates how the productivities of each sector and market sizes affect optimal public education policy.     

India's Economic Reforms: Achievements and Next Steps

This paper reviews the impact of India's reforms since 1991 on the performance of the Indian economy. It shows that the reforms definitely achieved a significant acceleration in growth and they also succeeded in reducing poverty. However, they have been less successful in generating good quality jobs. There was progress in providing better access to education, health services ,and clean drinking water and sanitation, but less than was hoped. The area where performance has been most disappointing is environmental sustainability. The paper concludes by identifying some of the critical policy challenges in the years ahead.     

Globalization,welfare, and the attitudes toward higher education

In this paper we study how the attitudes toward higher education may affect labor market outcomes in the context of globalization. In particular, we show that different educational attitudes are responsible for differences in the wage differential among countries. Using a matching model with two types of workers and firms, we find that there is a trade-off between the wage differential and the workers’ welfare, namely, that an economy that is less willing to educate itself will display a lower wage differential but will lose in terms of welfare. Moreover, from a policy perspective, we show that the negative effects on welfare due to this disinclination to study can be offset by increased labor market flexibility. All things considered, policy makers ought to keep in mind that both a positive attitude toward higher education and labor market flexibility, can lead to improved overall performance in this increasingly globalized world.     

Higher education and public sector employment: evidence from Finnish data on twins

Using data from Finland on twins, this paper examines the effect of labour quality, as measured by education, on the choice to work in the public sector. A distinction to previous studies is made by allowing controls of family background and genetics effects that could drive the positive relationship between higher education and public sector employment. The conditional (fixed effects) logit regression estimates indicate that highly qualified employees are more likely to seek public sector employment. The paper also utilizes the longitudinal structure of the data to examine whether the results vary over time. These results indicate that the association between public sector work and higher education is counter-cyclical. In other words, highly qualified workers are more likely to hold public service positions and to have greater access to public sector jobs during economic downturns.     

HOW TO RECTIFY UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES AND TO ESTABLISH APPROPRIATE SUPPLY CHAINS AND BETTER BUSINESS CULTURE UNDER THE GLOBAL MARKET ECONOMY

Banning unfair trade practices stands alongside private monopolization and the unjust restraint of trade as a key theme in competition policy. However, it poses much greater difficulties to deal with the matter than either private monopolization or unjust restraint of trade. In recent years, ongoing economic globalization, advances in information communication technology and other factors have wrought major changes in the traditional supply chain: for example, in subcontracting structure. Given the role of small and medium enterprises in underpinning economic growth, lifting the basic quality and performance level of these firms and improving business conditions for them have emerged as key policy themes. New efforts are needed to establish fair trade as a business practice and to create a new business culture in corporation with competition policy, small and medium enterprise policy and business ethics, such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices.     

National Income Accounting and Public Policy

Modern national income accounting was designed in the early 20th century for the purpose of providing improved indicators about the performance of the economy so that government policy makers could better control the economy. The way that performance is measured affects the types of policies used to try to accomplish policy goals. Two attributes of national income accounting are analyzed for their effects on economic policy. First, government production is included in the national income accounts at cost, rather than at market value as private sector output is measured. This biases policy toward a larger public sector. Second, output is measured as a homogeneous dollar amount. This biases policy toward focusing on increasing quantities of inputs and outputs in the production process, rather than on innovation and entrepreneurship, which are the true engines of economic progress. Economic policy could be improved by focusing less on national income as an indicator of policy, and more on the underlying processes that foster economic progress.     

How history matters for student performance. lessons from the Partitions of Poland

This paper examines the effect on current student performance of the 19th century Partitions of Poland among Austria, Prussia and Russia. Using a regression discontinuity design, I show that student test scores are 0.6 standard deviations higher on the Austrian side of the former Austrian-Russian border, despite the modern similarities of the three regions. However, I do not find evidence for differences across the Prussian-Russian border. Using a theoretical model and indirect evidence, I argue that the Partitions have persisted through their impact on social norms toward local schools. Nevertheless, the persistent effect of Austria is puzzling, given the historical similarities of the Austrian and Prussian education systems. I argue that the differential legacy of Austria and Prussia originates from the Austrian Empire’s policy to promote Polish identity in schools and the Prussian Empire’s efforts to Germanize the Poles through education.     

Lobbying for Education in a Two‐Sector Model

Firms specialized in two different sectors lobby to induce the government to subsidize the type of education complementary to their production. Lobbying is endogenous. We show that, if lobbying is not costly, both sectors will lobby in equilibrium and the education policy will induce the same skill composition that would be chosen by the social planner. However, if lobbying is costly and there is sufficient asymmetry between the sectors, only one sector will exert pressure on the policy‐maker in the attempt to direct resources toward the type of education required by its production. Which sector will engage in lobbying depends on relative size, productivity, and price. We also provide some preliminary evidence that lobbying activity by firms may influence the production of skills needed by those firms.     

Modelling policy options in the Indonesian agricultural sector

This paper persents a simple model framework for quantitative multi-market agricultural sector policy analysis. Although the example refers to the Indonesian case, the model structure is also applicable for other country studies. Since either prices or trade requirements can be set exogenously, the model is particularly useful for policy analysis in countries using trade controls to pursue food self-sufficiency targets. Data requirements are limited to supply-and-demand elasticities, some technical coefficients on the relationship between food and non-food prices, non-price induced trends in single commodity markets and in the non-food sector as an aggregate and a base-year data set. The model was developed to be relatively transparent to policy-makers and to allow for an easy revision of the magnitude of policy parameters or trend estimates if so needed. For the case study, econometric estimates, which are consistent with the requirements of neoclassical theory, have been used to parameterize the model. Model simulations have been run for the price run-up period of 1986 to 1988 and also for the Fifth Plan period 1988 to 1993. The results show that the model is a useful instrument to investigate in multi-market and multi-sector interrelationships of a country focussing on agriculture. For the Indonesian setting moel results suggest that during the Fifth Plan period rice self-sufficiency targets are easily met without the need of a particular investment or subsidy scheme. However, rice self-sufficiency and on-target performance of other important agricultural commodity markets in Indonesia will not come along automatically with the creation of jobs up to an amount needed to fight increasing rural underemployment.     

Structural change: Pace,patterns and determinants

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of structural change in the world economy. The analysis relies on a newly constructed dataset comprising 169 countries and covering the period from 1991 to 2013. Shapley decompositions are employed to evaluate the pace and pattern of structural change across regions and sub‐regions. Country‐level estimates are then used to conduct an original empirical exercise on the determinants of structural change. The results suggest that labor reallocations (structural change) have played a critical role in enhancing economic performance since the early 2000s, even if they remain comparatively less important than within‐sector productivity improvements. The widespread reallocation of labor from agriculture to the services sectors has been the key driver of structural change. Finally, we find robust evidence that the pace of structural change is significantly shaped by human and physical capital. The policy implication is that investments in education and economic infrastructure are crucial to accelerating structural change.     

Productivity and Policy in Higher Education

Understanding and improving the performance of public higher education institutions is a matter of growing interest to university and government leaders. To this end, this article surveys dimensions of recent approaches to productivity measurement in higher education, illustrating trends, limitations and developments, and exemplifies these with reference to Australian universities. The article closes by discussing policy considerations that would help augment the design of policy, making comment on the implications for performance‐incentivised funding of higher education.     

The quality-access tradeoff in decentralizing public services: Evidence from education in the OECD and Spain

Decentralized delivery of public services should enhance constituents’ ability to hold politicians accountable and improve public service outcomes, according to theory. Yet, decentralization has not consistently yielded those improvements. This paper uses a novel cross-country panel from the OECD to show that decentralization generally improves students’ access to education, but in so doing, it creates congestion effects which diminish the overall quality of education that students receive. We argue that this is partially explained by the incentives of sub-central governments upon receiving their new authority. Sub-central governments are more incentivized than national ones to pursue policy improvements that are more visible and quicker to achieve, even when they are costly – like improving access – over improvements that are less visible and take longer to achieve – like increasing quality. Decentralization should therefore result in positive effects on education access and negative on quality, consistent with our findings. We directly test the impact of political incentives on responses to decentralization by exploiting the timing of education decentralization in Spain (1980–99), and variation in the political assertiveness of regional governments, using generalized difference-in-differences and synthetic controls. As predicted, the magnitude of decentralization's effects is greater for assertive regions, which are most incentivized to prioritize high visibility, costly policies.     

MID‐DAY MEAL PROGRAM AND INCIDENCE OF CHILD LABOUR IN A DEVELOPING ECONOMY

The present paper purports to examine the consequence of a mid‐day meal program and/or cash stipend scheme on the incidence of child labour in a developing economy using a three‐sector general equilibrium model. It has been found that the policy may be counterproductive as it lowers both the initial incomes of the working families and the return on education. Direct cash payments to the working families instead of a mid‐day meal program are likely to be effective in eradicating the problem of child labour.     

Biodiversity value and the optimal location of forest conservation sites in Southern Finland

Safeguarding biodiversity has been one of the most important issues in environmental and forest policies since the 1990s. In Southern Finland, decisions concerning further actions for the preservation of forest biodiversity will be made in the coming years. To support policy making, we present a multi-regional model that is applicable in determining the economically optimal regional allocation of conservation sites. Three habitat quality models are evaluated to calculate habitat quality indices used as a surrogate for a biodiversity value in a forest sector model. The scenarios presented provide information about the economic impacts of conservation choices on the forest sector. The overall economic impacts of conservation depend on its scale and regional allocation. Conserving land with high biodiversity value can have less adverse impact on the forest sector than conservation of typical commercial forest sites. When optimizing conservation set-asides, we found that set-asides targeted to certain regions possessing higher/lower than average relative share of ecologically valuable land, caused lower/higher adverse economic impacts on the forest sector. Because it is expensive to search land suitable for conservation, these regions could be respectively favoured/avoided when asking forest owners to offer their land for the new conservation program in Southern Finland, which will be based on voluntariness.     

Hospital Competition with Soft Budgets

We study the incentives for quality provision and cost efficiency for hospitals with soft budgets, where the payer can cover deficits or confiscate surpluses. While a higher bailout probability reduces cost efficiency, the effect on quality is ambiguous. Profit confiscation reduces both quality and cost efficiency. First‐best is achieved by a strict no‐bailout and no‐profit‐confiscation policy when the regulated price is optimally set. However, for suboptimal prices, a more lenient bailout policy can be welfare‐improving. When we allow for heterogeneity in costs and qualities, we also show that a softer budget can raise quality for high‐cost patients.     

ACCRUAL BUDGETING AND FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN THE EMU

Drawing on modern macroeconomic literature focusing on the study of politico-institutional determinants of public policies, this article analyzes the institutional design of the European fiscal policy laid down by the Treaty of Amsterdam and the Stability and Growth Pact. Both documents provide countries in the EU, and in particular those that have adopted the euro, with a common code of fiscal conduct that is expected to uphold discipline in the management of government finances. Nevertheless, a simple review of this code of conduct shows the existence of serious drawbacks mainly derived from the asymmetry between the treatment given to outcomes of fiscal policy in comparison with that given to the procedures followed in generating them. It seems that the current design of the European fiscal coordination system does not really take into account the findings of modern macroeconomics and does not pay due attention to the relation between budgetary processes/institutions and outcomes in fiscal policy. Moreover, this article argues that in the implementation of the broad reforms needed to achieve a sustainable fiscal consolidation, there are political complementarities (in the sense that the ability to gain political consent for one reform depends on the acceptance of other reforms) between the setting up of new fiscal policies of expenditure containment and new fiscal procedures.
All in all, this analysis points to a sorely needed procedural reform in public sector budgeting as the best contribution to pursuing the stabilization of European public finances: the fuller use of accrual concepts in budget reporting. Much more than an isolated technical exercise, the shift to accrual budgeting could be quite a useful tool to facilitate wider reforms aimed at improving public sector financial management and performance while enhancing transparency and accountability.     

“The people want the fall of the regime”: Schooling,political protest,and the economy

We provide evidence that economic circumstances are a key intermediating variable for understanding the relationship between schooling and political protest. Using the World Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income outcomes fall short of that predicted by their biographical characteristics, in turn display a greater propensity to engage in protest activities. We discuss a number of interpretations that are consistent with this finding, including the idea that economic conditions can affect how individuals trade off the use of their human capital between production and political activities. Our results could also reflect a link between education, “grievance”, and political protest, although we argue that this is unlikely to be the sole explanation. Separately, we show that the interaction between schooling and economic conditions matters too at the country level: Rising education levels coupled with macroeconomic weakness are associated with increased incumbent turnover, as well as subsequent pressures toward democratization.     

Household-level analysis of the impacts of electricity consumption on welfare and the environment in Cambodia: Empirical evidence and policy implications

Cambodia’s biomass consumption is the most dominant energy source at residential sector, and its use is mainly for cooking and heating which could affect health due to indoor air pollution. The biomass is mainly sourced from wood cutting and forest-encroachment that could impact the environment due to reduction of forest at considerable scale. By using the data 2015 of Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey, the study investigates the impacts of electricity consumption on household welfare, such as earnings and the school performance of children in the households, and further to investigate its impacts on the environment. The study found that household’s access to electricity with ability to spend on electricity consumption contributes to the positive household welfare effects and environment via a reduction of biomass consumption, and the more household spends on biomass, the more they are prone to sickness of lung problem. The study also confirmed the important role of human capital formation for the positive impact on the welfare and the environment. These findings lead to policy implications that would improve affordable access to electricity to ensure that all households can use electricity for their basic needs and productivity, and also to reduce the negative effects on environment.     

The Financial Resource Curse*

In this paper, we present a model of the financial resource curse (i.e., episodes of abundant access to foreign capital coupled with weak productivity growth). We study a two‐sector (i.e., tradable and non‐tradable) small open economy. The tradable sector is the engine of growth, and productivity growth is increasing with the amount of labor employed by firms in the tradable sector. A period of large capital inflows, triggered by a fall in the interest rate, is associated with a consumption boom. While the increase in tradable consumption is financed through foreign borrowing, the increase in non‐tradable consumption requires a shift of productive resources toward the non‐tradable sector at the expenses of the tradable sector. The result is stagnant productivity growth. We show that capital controls can be welfare‐enhancing and can be used as a second‐best policy tool to mitigate the misallocation of resources during an episode of financial resource curse.