THE IMPACT OF CASINO GAMBLING ON PERSONAL BANKRUPTCY FILING RATES

Personal bankruptcies soared in the United States between 1994 and 1998. One activity that can precipitate personal financial crises and that has also experienced dramatic growth is commercial gambling, especially casino gambling. This article builds a simple model of bankruptcy choice and empirically tests the model using unique county-level data on debt, income, household age, population density, and casino gambling as well as state measures of employment and marital stability, health insurance coverage, and garnishment restrictions. The authors find that the proximity of casino gambling appears to be associated with higher bankruptcy rates, but that the local impact is far more pronounced than the influence of casino gambling on the national filing rate. To quantify the magnitude of the impact, the analysis predicts over a 5% decline in 1998 filing rates for counties surrounding a casino, and a 1% decline in the nationwide filing rate if one were to eliminate casino gambling. Consequently, although casino gambling exerts important local effects, nationwide the incidence and growth of casino gambling does not explain much of the rise in bankruptcies during the past decade.     

Has Anything Changed in the Past Century? Revisiting Graue's "The Social Cost of Bad Debt"

In a seminal paper, Erwin Graue (1939) provides an institutional analysis of the causes and consequences of personal bankruptcy protection in the United States during the period 1900-1937 when bankruptcy procedures were guided by the Federal Bankruptcy Act of 1898 (the Law was revised in 1938). This paper revisits the Graue study in the context of the current recession using a simple institutional economic framework. Consistent with Graue, we begin shortly after the implementation of the Bankruptcy Abuse Protection and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) and follow its evolution to the present time. Our analysis suggests that, since passage of BAPCPA, both total filings and Chapter 7 filings decreased significantly, however temporarily. Moreover, Chapter 7 filings as a percentage of Chapter 13 filings also temporarily decreased. These results are not only consistent with Graue's analysis, but also demonstrate that the institutional characteristics of bankruptcy law have a profound impact on the decision to file for bankruptcy and the chapter under which a petitioner files.     

CONSUMER BANKRUPTCY AND CHAPTER CHOICE: STATE PANEL EVIDENCE

Between 1985 and 1996, the number of personal bankruptcy cases filed annually in the United States rose from 341,000 to 1.1 million, and the rate of bankruptcies per 100,000 adults increased from 203 to 596. By state, bankruptcy rates vary from a low of 147 in Hawaii to a high of 956 in Tennessee. A controversial aspect of bankruptcy policy is the discharge of debts permitted under Chapter 7, in contrast to Chapter 13, where the debtor agrees to repay all or a portion of unsecured debt over a 3-5-year period. This paper examines empirically the determinants of the frequency with which individuals choose Chapter 13 relative to Chapter 7 (chapter choice). The panel data set is a cross section of states and the District of Columbia for the 8-year period from fiscal year 1989 to 1996. The empirical model and policy application focus on the importance of several laws for bankruptcy decisions, and legal variables are included for each state's Chapter 7 homestead exemption, personal property exemptions, and garnishment laws. This study shows that both homestead exemption laws and garnishment laws are statistically significant for bankruptcy choices. Although the marginal effect of the homestead exemption is small, there is a large range under current laws, suggesting that changes in this exemption are important for bankruptcy policy. ( JEL K1, K4, D2, D9)     

The Relationship of Pari-mutuel Wagering and Casino Gaming to Personal Bankruptcy

In this article, the relationship of the availability of pari-mutuel wagering and casino gaming opportunities to personal (nonbusiness) bankruptcy filings is investigated. An econometric model was developed relating the number of personal bankruptcies to sociodemographic, legal, and economic factors. In addition, a unique measure of access to casino and pari-mutuel gaming was included. Population, personal income, age, race, divorce rate, unemployment rate, and the ratio of debt to disposable personal income were found to be significant determinants of personal bankruptcies. Access to pari-mutuel or casino gaming facilities was found not to have a significant impact on personal bankruptcies. (JEL K1 , K4 , D1 , L83 )     

Have Casinos Contributed to Rising Bankruptcy Rates?

This paper examines the relationship between casino gambling and bankruptcy rates in U.S. counties using a panel of U.S. county-level data from 1990 through 2005. We contribute to the literature in several ways, perhaps most notably by examining the possibility that the effect of a casino on bankruptcy may differ over the casino’s lifespan. Results confirm this possibility, indicating that the impact of casinos on bankruptcy follows a “U-shaped” curve over the life of the casino. More specifically, regression analysis indicates the existence of a casino in a county increases the bankruptcy rate by more than 9% in the first year of operation. The percentage of additional bankruptcies then decreases through the third year after the casino opens. Bankruptcy rates in casino counties then slightly fall below that of non-casino counties during the fourth through seventh years after opening, increasing once again in the eighth year and thereafter. This cycle corresponds closely to the 6 year statute of limitations period applicable to Chapter 7 bankruptcies.     

SOCIAL INFLUENCE AND THE CONSUMER BANKRUPTCY DECISION

I examine the influence of neighbors on the consumer bankruptcy decision using administrative bankruptcy records linked to the 2000 Decennial Census. Two empirical strategies remove unobserved common factors that affect identification. The first strategy uses small geographical areas to isolate neighborhood effects, and the second strategy identifies the effect using past bankruptcy filers who moved states. The findings from both strategies reinforce each other and confirm the role of social influence on the bankruptcy decision. Having a past bankruptcy filer move into the block from a different state increases the likelihood of filing by 10%. (JEL D12, K35)     

How have banks fared following a borrower's financial distress?

This paper is the first to study the impact of a borrower's reorganization filing on its lead lending bank and second lending bank. This study analyzes 96 reorganization filings in Taiwan during the period 1995–2006. It is substantiated that the market's reaction to these filings is not indiscriminate and that the forbearance lending to a reorganization filing borrower suggests the lead bank's little concern for its shareholder wealth.     

Governments’ payment discipline: The macroeconomic impact of public payment delays and arrears

This paper considers the impact of changes in governments’ payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union countries using two complementary approaches. First, we use annual panel data, including a newly constructed proxy for government arrears. Using panel data techniques, including methods that allow for endogeneity, we find that payment delays and to some extent estimated arrears lead to a higher likelihood of bankruptcy, lower profits and lower economic growth. While this approach allows a broad set of variables to be included, it restricts the number of time periods. We therefore complement it with a Bayesian VAR approach on quarterly data for selected countries faced with significant payment delays. With this second approach, we also find that the likelihood of bankruptcies rises when the governments increase the average payment period.     

Plant-level employment development before collective displacements: comparing mass layoffs,plant closures and bankruptcies

This article analyzes the development of employment levels and worker flows before bankruptcies, plant closure without bankruptcies and mass layoffs. Utilizing administrative plant-level data for Germany, we find no systematic employment reductions prior to mass layoffs, a strong and long-lasting reduction prior to closures, and a much shorter shadow of death preceding bankruptcies. Employment reductions in closing plants, in contrast to bankruptcies and mass layoffs, do not come along with increased worker flows. These patterns point to an intended and controlled shrinking strategy for closures without bankruptcy and to an unintended collapse for bankruptcies and mass layoffs.     

Regulation and financial disclosure: The impact of plain English

In October 1998, the SEC implemented a rule requiring firms to use plain English in their prospectus filings. In addition to the rule, the SEC encouraged the use of plain English in all filings and communication with shareholders. Did the SEC rule significantly impact managers’ disclosure style? And, more interestingly, did the SEC’s recommendations lead managers to change their disclosure style in filings not under the plain English mandate? Our textual analysis of Form 424, IPO prospectus, and 10-K filings over 1994–2009 finds that the SEC’s implementation of the plain English rule substantively impacted managerial behavior. When we focus on 10-K filings, we find that after the 1998 rule, firms are more likely to improve the stylistic components of their filing before an equity issuance and firms with better corporate governance policies are more likely to comply with the rule.     

Bankruptcy in the pulp and paper industry: market’s reaction and prediction

This paper examines North American pulp and paper company bankruptcies that occurred between 1990 and 2009. We demonstrate that shareholders suffer substantial losses (37 %) during the month a bankruptcy occurs. Encouragingly, we show that financial ratios are useful in predicting firm failure and that failed firms are less profitable, more liquidity constrained and higher in debt leverage. Using a binary logit model in the spirit of Ohlson (J Acc Res, 19, 109–131, 1980), we predict financial distress for pulp and paper firms 1 to 2 years ahead of the bankruptcy. We also adapt and re-estimate the empirical model on a sample of pulp and paper firms and perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. For the out-of-sample analysis, our re-estimated Ohlson models correctly predict 93 % of bankruptcy and non-bankruptcy outcomes.     

Earnings management by firms announcing earnings after SEC filing

This study examines motivation and stock market reactions of firms announcing earnings in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) after filing with the Security Exchange Commission (SEC). Most firms announce earnings in the WSJ before SEC filing. Firms that reverse this sequence are voluntarily delaying public earnings announcements. The authors find that these firms are not only poor financial performers but also engage in earnings managements. They are delaying their WSJ announcements to postpone announcing bad news. The authors find significant stock price reactions to both the SEC filing and the WSJ announcement. The price reaction to earnings is incomplete at the SEC filings. The market continues reacting to firms' subsequent WSJ announcements as if the SEC filing fails to communicate earnings information to some investors.     

Domestic and global output gaps as inflation drivers: What does the Phillips curve tell?

We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework which controls for non-linear exchange rate movements for a panel of 26 advanced and 22 emerging economies covering the 1994Q1−2017Q4 period. We find that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in the pre-crisis (1994–2008) and post-crisis (2008–2017) periods. Furthermore, after the crisis, in advanced economies the effect of the domestic output gap declines, while in emerging economies the effect of the global output gap declines. Our results suggest that emerging and advanced economies have become more similar to each other in terms of output gaps as inflation drivers. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in identifying the impact of global and domestic output gaps on inflation.     

Bankruptcy and Entrepreneurship: The Value of a Fresh Start

This article considers bankruptcy law design in a setting thatis appropriate for entrepreneurial firms. These firms are characterizedby a dependence on an owner-manager who is essential to thefirm and must be given incentive through an ownership staketo maximize the value of the project. In a relationship-lendingenvironment, the banks that fund entrepreneurs cannot capturethe gains from providing the entrepreneur with this stake, andthis leaves the entrepreneur emerging from bankruptcy with alarger debt burden than is socially efficient. In this setting,a "fresh-start" bankruptcy policy provides greater debt reliefthan the bank would approve voluntarily, and this generatesgreater social surplus. The results suggest the value of separateprocedures for small business bankruptcies that allow some mandatorydebt relief to preserve ex post incentives.     

AN ANATOMY OF U.S. PERSONAL BANKRUPTCY UNDER CHAPTER 13

We build a structural model that captures salient features of personal bankruptcy under Chapter 13. We estimate our model using a novel data set that we construct from bankruptcies filed in Delaware between 2001 and 2002. Our estimation results highlight the importance of a debtor's choice of repayment plan length on other Chapter 13 outcomes. We use the estimated model to conduct policy experiments to evaluate the impact of more stringent laws that impose restrictions on the length of repayment plans. We find that these provisions would not materially affect creditor recovery rates and would not necessarily make discharge more likely.     

HETEROGENEOUS EFFECTS OF THE ACA MEDICAID EXPANSION ON HOSPITAL FINANCIAL OUTCOMES

This study examines the effect of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion on hospital financial outcomes. A key innovation relative to prior studies is that we explicitly account for heterogeneity across states in the timing and extent of the expansion as well as across hospital types. We find that Medicaid expansion led to a decrease in uncompensated care expenditures and an increase in average operating margins. The effects were larger in states where the Medicaid expansion led to a greater increase in program eligibility. Operating margins improved most for public hospitals and facilities located in rural areas. (JEL I11, I13, I18)     

An extension of the Tiebout hypothesis of voting with one’s feet: the Medicaid magnet hypothesis

This study empirically extends the Tiebout hypothesis of ‘voting with one’s feet’ in two ways. First, it provides updated estimates using net migration data for the period 2000–2008. Second, in addition to investigating variables reflecting public education outlays, property taxation and income taxation, it investigates whether migrants are attracted to states with higher Medicaid benefits per recipient. The latter hypothesis is referred to as the ‘Medicaid magnet hypothesis’. The analysis includes three economic variables, three quality of life variables and three Tiebout-type factors in addition to Medicaid benefits. Results indicate that consumer voters were attracted to states with higher per pupil public school spending, lower property and income tax rates, and that certain consumer-voters may be attracted to states that offer higher levels of Medicaid benefits.     

MEDICAID EXPANSION AND EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT UTILIZATION

This study measures the effect of Medicaid expansion on emergency department (ED) utilization. It also explores the mechanism through which treatment effects operate. Identification relies on a county‐level Medicaid expansion rollout within California from 2011 to 2013. The results suggest that Medicaid expansion increased ED utilization in California. Every time one individual transferred into the Medicaid program, there emerged one additional ED visit per year. Furthermore, the effect appears to be driven by difficulty accessing primary care. These findings suggest Medicaid expansion may have different effects in different environments, depending on how easily enrollees can schedule appointments. (JEL I13, I18, I38)     

Exploring the worldwide patent surge

Worldwide patent filings are at historically unprecedented levels. In 2011, the total number of patent applications for the first time exceeded two million – double the approximately 1.05 million patents filed in 1995. Understanding what is behind this growth is important, as it may indicate faster technological progress, new innovation models and strategic shifts in how companies use the patent system. Policy-makers need to understand what drives the growth in patenting worldwide, not least to evaluate how the patent system can cope with the increasing flow of applications. A number of studies have looked at the growth in patent filings in individual countries, but have not focused on the world as a whole. This paper seeks to fill this gap by providing an analysis of global patenting trends using the most comprehensive data currently available. Among other things, it finds that subsequent patent filings – additional filings of the same invention, mostly in additional countries – contributed considerably to the growth in filings worldwide, pointing to globalization as one important driver of filing growth. However, no single factor can fully explain the marked increase in the use of the patent system.     

Optimal personal bankruptcy design under moral hazard

In this paper, we develop a normative theory of unsecured consumer credit and personal bankruptcy based on the optimal trade-off between incentives and insurance. First, in order to characterize this trade-off, we solve a dynamic moral hazard problem in which agents' private effort decisions influence the life-cycle profiles of their earnings. We then show how the optimal allocation of individual effort and consumption can be implemented in a market equilibrium in which (i) agents and intermediaries repeatedly trade secured and unsecured debt instruments, and (ii) agents obtain (restricted) discharge of their unsecured debts in bankruptcy. The structure of this equilibrium and the associated restrictions on debt discharge closely match the main qualitative features of personal credit markets and bankruptcy law that actually exist in the United States.