Determinants of microcredit repayment in Portugal: analysis of borrowers,loans and business projects

Microcredit programs in Portugal represent a unique case for studying the microcredit repayment determinants in a developed country, as it experienced a financial hardship in 2008–2009, with economic and social consequences that led to unemployment crisis. This research examined the determinants of microcredit loan repayment based on a sample of 752 microcredit loans granted in Portugal by the National Association for the Right to Credit, adopting individual lending mechanisms and granting loans through partnerships with several credit institutions. This is the first study to ascertain the influence that a set of factors – grouped into three categories: borrowers’ individual characteristics; loan characteristics; and characteristics of business projects implemented by borrowers – has on the repayment ability of microcredit programs, in a developed country of the Eurozone. Moreover, this is the first study using an ordered logistic regression (OLR) in estimating the determinants of microcredit loan repayment. Similar to previous studies, married borrowers tend to repay loans faster as they tend to be more responsible than single borrowers. Nationality seems to be an issue as foreigners tends to default the repayment loans. Finally, those involved in manufacturing activities perform better than those involved in service activities in repaying their loans. This clearly indicates that in developed countries special attention needs to be provided to minority groups as well as market/supply conditions, which are not normally considered in less favored economic countries.     

The effect of corruption on microfinance loan portfolio: A semiparametric analysis

In this paper, we examine the extent to which corruption affects the loan portfolio of microfinance institutions (MFIs). We employ robust econometric estimation on a sample of 507 MFIs across 63 countries from 2005 to 2018. Our results show that corruption is negatively associated with the loan portfolio. However, in semiparametric analysis, we find that lower-level corruption is beneficial to increase the loan portfolio while higher-level corruption is detrimental. The results imply that it is not just corruption that matters as far as its effect on MFIs' loan portfolio is concerned; what matters is the degree of corruption. In further analyses, we find that corruption reduces both the number of active borrowers and average loan per borrower indicating that corruption reduces both coverage and amount of credit extension. The results suggest that the effect of corruption on the loan portfolio is gender-sensitive. Corruption facilitates an increase in loans to female borrowers. Our results are robust to alternative variable measurements and different identification strategies, including two-stage least square.     

INTEREST RATES IN GROUP LENDING: A BEHAVIOURAL INVESTIGATION

Abstract.  Microfinance institutions (MFIs) serve more than 5 million households in developing countries. A crucial variable for MFI schemes is the interest rate to be charged from borrowers. This paper studies the behavioural impacts of the repayment burden on repayment performance. In a laboratory experiment, we vary the amount a borrower group has to repay and study how this affects free-riding behaviour. We can identify two counteracting effects: a higher repayment burden intensifies the incentives to free-ride as shirking saves more money. On the other hand, high-interest loans are less tolerant towards defaulters, which exerts a disciplining effect.     

A pricing model with dynamic repayment flows for guaranteed consumer loans

In the literature, the pricing of guaranteed consumer loans remains largely unexplored. This paper proposes a pricing model with dynamic repayment flows for guaranteed consumer loans based on the expected net present value (ENPV) method. Our study contributes to the literature by providing a practical guide for individual lenders to invest in consumer loans. Specifically, we conduct an illustrative analysis of peer-to-peer consumer loans guaranteed by the Risk Protection Scheme (RPS) in China. The ENPV shows that the value of guaranteed loans is jointly determined by the borrowers’ Markov repayment behavior and the compensation ability of the RPS. Numerical simulations show that both the returns and losses of guaranteed loans are smaller than those of non-guaranteed loans. Further, the lenders who invest in a loan guaranteed by the RPS receive some repayments, although the borrower no longer repays the debt and the balance of the guarantee account is negative.     

Do women borrowers augment financial performance of MFIs?

There is some consensus that depth of outreach and financial performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are positively correlated. A majority of microcredit borrowers are women and since the prevalence of female borrowers is even greater among the very poor, there should be a positive correlation between female borrowers and financial performance. Most of the MFIs target women as preferred borrowers. However, no study to date has investigated the relationship between targeting women and MFI’s sustainability with respect to profitability and yield. Utilizing a panel of 892 MFIs over a period of 10 years, this study shows that increased proportion of women borrowers has a statistically significant positive impact on yield and financial performance of MFIs. Consequently, this article also analyses the implication as to whether female borrowers have better repayment rate than male borrowers.     

Repayment performance of joint-liability microcredits: Metropolitan evidence on social capital and group names

This study empirically tests the predictions of four primary theories applicable to joint-liability microcredit programs’ repayment performance using an administrative data in a metropolitan setting. We introduce a new variable, group names, as a proxy for social capital to capture cooperation, solidarity, and drive for success, which shows a significant positive impact of 9.9% on repayment performance. Precise calculations of residential distance between group members show a deterioration of repayment performance by 1.1% with a 15-min increase in minimum walking distance. The results also show that joint liability, sectoral diversification, type of sector that the borrowers facilitate, the ratio of new members in a group, characteristics of loan officers, loan amount, interest rate, income-loan amount coverage ratio, the existence of senior members, average education, and diversity in income streams significantly affect repayment performance.     

The impact of mobile financial services’ usage on microfinance delinquency

This paper studies the impact of Mobile Financial Systems’ usage on microcredit delinquency ratios in Tunisia by using either a two-part model or matching econometric procedures. Our large dataset contains all of the administrative registers that belong to the six branches of Enda, the incumbent Institution leader in Tunisia. We find a significant reduction of 4.92 days of late repayment for an average user of MFS in an environment where 15% of loans have been paid late at least once. We foresee a tremendous opportunity to improve the MFIs’ repayment ratios and, consequently, provide microcredit customers with more financing for income generating activities.     

Heterogeneity of farm loan packaging term decisions: a finite mixture approach

This article revisits the minority borrowers’ discrimination issue in farm lending by departing from traditional loan approval-rejection or default rate-based analytical models to focus on loan packaging decisions. This study analyses such decisions using a Finite Mixture Model that optimally separates the borrowers into two sub-classes allowing for a priori unspecified heterogeneity in borrowers’ data, which has not been accounted for in previous loan discrimination analyses. Results show that non-white farm borrowers tend to receive larger loans among those in the lower loan latent class, but receive relatively lower loans in the larger loans borrower category. These farmers are also charged higher interest rates vis-à-vis their peers in both the low and high interest rate latent classes. This study’s results also indicate that male borrowers are accommodated with larger loans and longer maturities in all loan amount and maturity latent classes. This study validates the interplay among significant trends in loan packaging terms for racial and gender minority borrowers that seems logical from the lenders’ credit risk management perspective.     

Competition and microfinance

Competition between microfinance institutions (MFIs) in developing countries has increased dramatically in the last decade. We model the behavior of non-profit lenders, and show that their non-standard, client-maximizing objectives cause them to cross-subsidize within their pool of borrowers. Thus when competition eliminates rents on profitable borrowers, it is likely to yield a new equilibrium in which poor borrowers are worse off. As competition exacerbates asymmetric information problems over borrower indebtedness, the most impatient borrowers begin to obtain multiple loans, creating a negative externality that leads to less favorable equilibrium loan contracts for all borrowers.     

Labour unions and global bank loan market

This article attempts to collect a data set of labour unions in global 500 biggest banks and investigate whether labour unions of banks influence the designing of bank loan contracts. We use global syndicate loan market to examine this issue. For simplicity, banks with and without labour unions are referred to as ‘unionized banks’ and ‘nonunionized banks’, respectively. We find that unionized banks tend to loosen their lending standard in the bank loan contract: unionized banks are more likely to charge lower loan spread and favourable nonprice terms compared with nonunionized banks. Hence, our results support that unionized banks tend to lend more loans to reduce the negative effect of labour unions.     

LES DÉTERMINANTS DE LA PERFORMANCE DE REMBOURSEMENT DES MICROCRÉDITS EN TUNISIE

Our work is part of the quest for sustainability of MFIs. To ensure sustainability, an MFI must be effective. It must, among others, face many risks and in particular the default risk. A question arises: what are the determinants of portfolio quality of MFIs? In other words, what are the determinants that influence delays in payment of MFIs? The interest of this research is twofold. The first is practical: knowing the importance of performance measures of microcredit as a precondition for the efficiency and financial performance of MFIs, this study identified determinants of the reimbursement rate in an MFI of Tunisia. It may even give an evidence for banks to intervene on the market of micro credit. The second is methodological: to find the determinants of reimbursement behaviour in MFIs, a binary logistic regression is used, while differing in explanatory variables between key variables and moderators’ ones, which was not met previously in the literature. The results showed that among the variables related to the characteristics of the loan, the loan amount and the borrower's experience with the MFI affect the rate of reimbursement. The credit increases the likelihood of default. Unlike, when borrower's experience with the MFI increases, the risk of default decreases. A relationship between the industry and the repayment rate has not been verified. For variables related to the characteristics of the borrower, age, educational level and marital status of the borrower appear to affect the relationship between the risk of default and the amount of credit. The effect of the credit amount on the default risk decreases as age and level of education increases. In addition, this effect is more important for married compared to the unmarried. For gender, we found that the effect of maturity on the risk of default is not the same for men or women borrowers. It seems that when the maturity increases, men provide reimbursement rates lower than women.     

高校助学贷款政策与实施效应相关性研究——以湖南省为例

利用分层抽样方法从部分湖南省高校2004到2008年的助学贷款数据中选取4070个样本,利用SPSS软件分析样本中贷款利率、期限及还款程序、生源地和各学科门类学费等自变量与贷款金额、人数、次数、年限、提前还款与违约率等因变量的相关性。由此建议在目前的政策环境下,推进重点地区生源地贷款与鼓励学生回家乡就业相结合、增加艰苦专业的学生补贴,制定均衡的利率政策,优化贷款程序等可改善国家助学贷款政策的实施效应,从而为助学贷款政策的完善提供一种新的思路。     

Here today,gone tomorrow: Can dynamic incentives make microfinance more flexible?

This paper presents a model of microfinance lending to individuals that uses dynamic incentives, in the form of access to additional loans, to discourage borrowers from strategic default, or the unwillingness to repay a loan once a positive outcome is realized. We propose an improvement on contracts currently used by microfinance institutions (MFIs) by endogenizing the default penalty, while constraining the MFI to maintain sustainable lending operations. Furthermore, accounting for the risks that the poor face by including a negative economic shock, we show that under certain circumstances, the punishment for default need not be a lifetime without loans.     

On the Term Structure of Sovereign-Debt Contracts*

This paper studies the term structure of a repudiation-proof debt contract encompassing many sequentially scheduled short-term loans in a principal-agent (lender-sovereign borrower) framework. the extension of each loan is conditional on the full repayment of the previous loans in due maturity. Both direct sanctions and loss of access to the international credit market are present as debt-repudiation costs. It is shown that the proposed repudiation-proof composite contract exhibiting decreasing loan sizes and increasing maturities is better for coping with the enforcement problems that characterize sovereign lending.     

建立高校助学贷款风险防范机制的构想

高校贫困生助学贷款政策的正确实施,关系到目前我国高校贫困学生的正常学习、教育公平和社会公平大局。国家助学贷款政策推出已经十年,历经调整变化,但仍然存在一些明显的机制缺陷,本文认为要实现高校贫困生助学贷款的可持续发展,建立高校资助贷款的风险防范机制十分必要。主要从以下五个方面着手：一是构建多元化的资助贷款体系,实现资助贷款主体多元化、资助手段多样化、还贷方式的多样化,使资助贷款更加人性化、科学化;二是建立资助贷款风险的顸警机制,建立“双重”环节的顸警机制,加强各参与方的良性互动;三是建立政策性资助贷款担保体系,通过建立政策性担保机构、建立银行、担保机构与政府共担风险机制;四是完善资助贷款的激励一约束机制,强化风险主体的责任意识;五是完善资助贷款的支持体系。     

银行关系、政治关联与上市公司银行贷款的可获得性——基于我国上市公司的实证分析

以2001—2011年我国2373家上市公司为研究样本,检验了政治关联和银行关系对其银行贷款可获得性的影响。研究结果显示:对于所有的上市企业而言,政治关联和银行关系均有助于增强其银行贷款的可获得性,但同时具有两种关系反而不利于企业获得银行贷款;对于国有企业而言,建立政治关联或银行关系均有利于其获得长期贷款,但对短期贷款的获得没有显著影响;对于民营企业而言,政治关联有利于其获得长期借款,银行关系能显著增强其获得短期贷款的能力。     

Designing credit agent incentives to prevent mission drift in pro-poor microfinance institutions

Credit agents in microfinance institutions (MFIs) must be given incentives to acquire information on potential borrowers and select them in accordance with the MFI's objectives. We show that while giving incentives has no cost in for-profit MFIs, it is costly in pro-poor MFIs: When repayment and wealth are positively correlated, a pro-poor MFI cannot obtain the selection of poor clients in the proportion it wishes with incentives based solely on repayment. It then becomes necessary to audit the share of very poor borrowers selected by an agent in order to provide the latter with adequate incentives. When audit costs are large, pro-poor MFIs may have to forego selection on wealth — and use other targeting devices such as working in impoverished geographical locations. Driven by donor concerns with ‘mission drift’ away from the poor, audits on the wealth status of clients have been introduced at the level of MFIs. We show that introducing pro-poor incentives requires extending such audits to the level of credit agents.     

A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches

This article presents a micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches. Using a survey among German firms which regularly queries the firms' assessment of the current willingness of banks to extend credit, we estimate the probability of a restrictive loan supply policy by time taking into account the creditworthiness of borrowers. Creditworthiness is approximated by firm-specific factors, e.g. the firms' assessment of their current business situation and their business expectations. After controlling for the return on the banks' risk-free investment alternative, which is also likely to affect the supply of loans, we derive a credit crunch indicator, which measures that part of the shift in the loan supply that is neither explained by firm-specific factors nor by the opportunity costs of providing risky loans.     

Cash flow vs. collateral‐based credit

We study factors affecting micro, small and medium‐sized enterprises (MSMEs) receiving loans and the effect of these loans on MSMEs performance. We study two types of loans – a new type based on cash flows and a traditional‐style loan based on collateral. We use unique surveys of MSMEs from Bulgaria, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine. We find that MSMEs receiving a cash flow or collateral loan in the past are more likely to receive the same type of loan (and larger sized) in the future and that cash flow loans may be the preferred form of credit. Both types of loans are related positively to most performance indicators, enabling the MSMEs for instance to be more profitable and expand production. The cash flow loans also appear to be particularly attractive credit delivery schemes for micro and small enterprises. Finally, the effects of the smallest loans are often negative, suggesting that the minimum loan size is an important policy issue.     

Financing Tertiary Education: An Examination of the Issues

The subsidies provided to the tertiary sector in Australia are more generous than those offered in most other advanced countries and most other industries. Evaluated using the criteria of economic efficiency, equity and consistency with the stated aims for the tertiary sector, these subsidies do not appear to be given for the right reasons. It can therefore be argued that there is justification for the imposition of tuition fees and for consideration of loans as a method of student finance. Overseas experience with loan finance is reasonably encouraging. Income contingent loans have been advanced as a viable means of perfecting the market for investment in human capital and as a form of profit sharing in which taxpayers share in both the costs and benefits of the educational investments of a nation's youth. Many standard arguments against loan finance, such as their disadvantaging lowincome groups and their constituting a negative dowry for female students, do not stand up to close scrutiny of the empirical evidence. The gradual introduction of a student loans scheme characterised by a high degree of income contingency, lengthy repayment periods, decreasing marginal tax rates per unit of debt, and moderate interest rate subsidies, appears to have considerable merit as a means of passing on to graduates part of the cost of the expensive service they now receive largely for free.