Dynamic equilibrium and the structure of premiums in a reinsurance market

In this paper we present an economic equilibrium analysis of a reinsurance market. The continuous-time model contains the principal components of uncertainty; about the time instants at which accidents take place, and about claim sizes given that accidents have occurred. We give sufficient conditions on preferences for a general equilibrium to exist, with a Pareto optimal allocation, and derive the premium functional via a representative agent pricing theory. The marginal utility process of the reinsurance market is represented by the density process for random measures, which opens up for numerous applications to premium calculations, some of which are presented in the last section. The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations of individual dynamic optimization are established for proportional treaties, and the term structure of interest rates is found in this reinsurance syndicate. The paper attempts to reach a synthesis between the classical actuarial risk theory of insurance, in which virtually no economic reasoning takes place but where the net reserve is represented by a stochastic process, and the theory of equilibrium price formation at the heart of the economics of uncertainty.     

投资者结构与期限结构对期货市场效率的影响研究

有效市场假设认为,投资者不能通过任何信息的获取而获得超额收益,即价格能够及时地反映所标资产的相关信息和风险。通过对上海期货市场金融危机前后交易数据的检验,发现其存在显著的长期惯性利润,证明了其不符合有效市场假设和可能存在市场操纵行为。Granger因果检验进一步发现短期的投机行为越多惯性利润越低,长期惯性利润越高投机行为越多。因此上海期货市场有必要通过减少交易成本和提供更多的交易信息去改善市场结构和效率。     

Bank efficiency,market structure and strategic interaction: Evidence from Vietnam

This study investigates the impacts of Vietnamese banks’ efficiency on the strategic interactions with their rivals. The study argues that efficient banks will compete the market to grow, and then become more responsive to the strategies from their rivals. The study extends the Efficiency Structure theory to capture the behaviours of banks after the evolvement of market structure as the result of efficiency improvement. The study further argues that the speed of growth plays a key role in moderating the relationship between efficiency and strategic interaction. The study finds evidence that the impact of efficiency on strategic interaction is stronger at the lower level of growth.     

The global financial crisis and stock market migrations: An analysis of family and non-family firms in Germany

In most European countries, the number of exchange-listed firms has begun declining subsequent to the global financial crisis in 2008/2009. In the U.S., these numbers had already started to decrease one decade earlier. We investigate how the global financial crisis encouraged family and non-family firms in Germany to transfer from the highest to a lower stock market segment. Using logit and firm-fixed effects regressions, we provide several explanations why we observe a higher propensity of family firms relative to non-family firms to migrate to a lower market segment subsequent to the financial crisis. Explanations are lower investments during the financial crisis, decreasing growth opportunities and operating performance as well as lower stock market quality. Consequently, many family firms reassessed their listing benefits and costs after the financial crisis as well as their initial market segment decision. In contrast, the transfer reasons for non-family firms are often a lower performance and financial difficulties.     

An empirical analysis of the economic impact of federal terrorism reinsurance

This paper examines the role of the federal government in the market for terrorism reinsurance. We investigate the stock price response of affected industries to a sequence of 13 events culminating in the enactment of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA) of 2002. In the industries most likely to be affected by TRIA—banking, construction, insurance, real estate investment trusts, transportation, and public utilities-the stock price effect was primarily negative. The Act was at best value-neutral for property-casualty insurers because it eliminated the option not to offer terrorism insurance. The negative response of the other industries may be attributable to the Act's impeding more efficient private market solutions, failing to address nuclear, chemical, and biological hazards, and reducing market expectations of federal assistance following future terrorist attacks.     

The residual market factor,the APT,and mean-variance efficiency

The rapidly increasing volume of both published and unpublished work on the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) of Ross (1976) has given rise to a number of misunderstandings at the interface of theoretical and econometric work. In this article we extend the theoretical structure of our previous work (McElroy and Burmeister, 1985, 1988; Burmeister and McElroy, 1987, 1988) to provide a broad yet rigorous framework both for econometric estimation and for better economic interpretation of new empirical results. We begin with the case where allK factors are observed, and then present the second case ofK−1≡J observed APT factors and one unobserved factor, theresidual market factor introduced in McElroy and Burmeister (1985). The economic interpretations for equivalent specifications of this model are discussed, and we enumerate several immediate payoffs to these specifications. The main new results are concerned with the sometimes intricate relationships among APT models withK factors and APT models withK factors that are constrained to satisfy mean-variance efficiency restrictions. These results are not only of theoretical interest, but more importantly they provide the basis for econometric estimation and testing of nested hypotheses. These econometric issues are discussed in detail.     

Currency futures market in India: an empirical analysis of market efficiency and volatility

As the Indian currency futures market has been in existence for over 7 years, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the 1-month USD/INR currency futures rates in predicting the expected spot rate. The volatility of the USD/INR spot returns was also analysed. Modelling volatility of the USD/INR spot rate using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model indicated the presence of volatility clustering. Using multivariate GARCH models such as the constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation, signs of a volatility spillover between the USD/INR spot and currency futures market were also observed.     

An examination of market efficiency: Information order effects in a laboratory market

A series of laboratory double auction experiments is conducted to examine whether the order of information releases affects market prices. Behavioral research on belief revision has shown that individuals are influenced by the order in which a series of information items is presented. The experiments are designed to provide a controlled investigation of whether order effects as displayed by individuals also can influence prices in a market setting where outcomes are not a simple aggregation of individual behavior. Significant evidence is found of a recency effect in the experimental asset markets.     

An examination of market efficiency around hurricanes

Hurricane Andrew produced more than $21.5 billion in property damage in Florida and Louisiana. Hurricane Hugo caused about $7 billion in damage in North and South Carolina. Although both hurricanes were large, the magnitudes of their destruction and the geographic concentrations of their paths were markedly different. This study finds that Hugo and Andrew produced substantially different market reactions on property and casualty (P&C) firms. The industry was generally unaffected by Hugo, regardless of whether or not firms had exposure in the Carolinas. Andrew, on the other hand, generated a significant negative impact on firms with exposure in Florida or Louisiana. Other firms were not effected by Andrew. These observations indicate that the market demonstrated an ability to discriminate by the magnitude of hurricane and by P&C firms based on their degree of loss exposure.     

An empirical test of the efficiency of the ADR market

This study examines the weak form efficiency of foreign equities — American Depository Receipts — traded in the U.S. The results of serial correlation and runs tests on a sample of listed and NASDAQ ADRs for the years 1974–1978 were consistent with weak form efficiency.     

An alternative measure of the “world market portfolio”: Determinants, efficiency, and information content

The world market portfolio plays an important role in international asset pricing, but is unobservable in practice. We first propose a framework for constructing a market proxy that corresponds to the “market portfolio” of financial theory. We then construct this proxy, analyze its determinants and test its efficiency and explanatory power over the period 1975-2007 with respect to the return generating processes of a broad asset universe. We show that its major determinants are traded assets and that it is not efficient. However, it is significant for explaining individual asset returns over an asset universe that includes stocks, bonds, money markets and commodities. The explanatory information is incremental to what is available in traded asset prices and the significance of this information is robust with respect to diversified portfolios generated by factor analysis and to characteristic-sorted portfolios as well as to various model specifications, including the single-index model, the Fama-French (1992) three factor model for stocks, and various specifications of multi-index models hedged and unhedged for foreign currency risk.     

The individual investor in the market: Forming a belief regarding market efficiency

Do the actions of investors drive the market toward efficiency or do investors utilize fads and other information unrelated to the true value of the security to drive the market away from efficiency? Investors have been forced to examine a multitude of challenges to the efficient markets hypothesis in recent years. One of the most formidable of the challenges is the “excessive market price volatility” argument. We examine this argument, as presented in the “variance bounds” literature, and conclude that, although markets may be inefficient, the “variance bounds” literature has not proved the case conclusively.     

海南省财政支出规模与结构的分析

控制财政支出规模,优化财政支出结构,一方面能够促使地方政府有针对性地提供公共物品及服务,使其更好地满足社会共同需要;另一方面能够对地方经济增长与社会公平产生积极显著的影响。因此,有意识地控制财政支出规模、完善财政支出结构是财政主体最重要的职能之一。文章以海南省财政支出规模及结构现状为依据,对海南省财政支出规模、结构中存在的问题进行分析,并提出相应的调整优化财政支出对策。     

Economies of scope in financial services: A DEA efficiency analysis of the US insurance industry

This paper investigates economies of scope in the US insurance industry over the period 1993–2006. We test the conglomeration hypothesis, which holds that firms can optimize by diversifying across businesses, versus the strategic focus hypothesis, which holds that firms optimize by focusing on core businesses. We analyze whether it is advantageous for insurers to offer both life-health and property-liability insurance or to specialize in one major industry segment. We estimate cost, revenue, and profit efficiency utilizing data envelopment analysis (DEA) and test for scope economies by regressing efficiency scores on control variables and an indicator for strategic focus. Property-liability insurers realize cost scope economies, but they are more than offset by revenue scope diseconomies. Life-health insurers realize both cost and revenue scope diseconomies. Hence, strategic focus is superior to conglomeration in the insurance industry.     

Tick size,market structure,and market quality

Large tick sizes imposed on high-priced stocks on the Korea Stock Exchange (KSE) are significant binding constraints on bid-ask spreads. Nearly 60% of quoted spreads are equal to the tick size for stocks with the largest tick size and more than 87% of quoted spreads are equal to the tick size for stocks in the largest size portfolio. We also show that the average spread of KSE stocks with large tick sizes is greater than that of matched NYSE stocks, whereas the average spread of KSE stocks with the smallest tick size is smaller than the corresponding figure for the matched NYSE stocks. We interpret these results as evidence that traders on the KSE are paying large trading costs because of the artificially imposed large tick sizes.     

The forward discount puzzle and market efficiency

We argue that the forward discount puzzle is primarily a statistical phenomenon and that statistical rejections of Uncovered Interest Parity do not necessarily constitute valid rejections of market efficiency. We find by using a Taylor expansion a theoretical negative bias in existing regressions of UIP. We propose two alternative tests for market efficiency, one of which is designed to measure the degree of market inefficiency. Our results from these tests indicate that for all four of the bilateral dollar parities studied the foreign exchange market is efficient despite decisive clear rejections of UIP using the conventional regression approach.     

Tests of rationality,neutrality and market efficiency: A Monte Carlo analysis of alternative test statistics

This paper examines the small sample properties of three testing strategies used to analyze the rationality, monetary neutrality and market efficiency hypotheses. We focus on the original ‘two-step’ Barro test of the MRE hypothesis formed entirely from OLS results, a test that employs the correct variance-covariance formulae for these ‘two-step’ estimates, and Mishkin's FIMLE testing framework. Each test is examined under likely model respecifications. The findings highlight the extensive bias incurred by drawing inferences from simple unadjusted ‘two-step’ estimates and reveal the relative power of all tests in identifying alternatives to the null hypotheses.     

On the asymmetric relationship between stock market development,energy efficiency and environmental quality: A nonlinear analysis

It has been widely documented in the literature that financial development drives up the impact of CO₂ emissions through increases in real economic activities and the consumption of polluting fossil fuel energy. However, when dealing with stock market development, such upward effects on economic growth, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions seems to give away to a positive impact especially in emerging markets. This paper contributes to this debate by exploring both the symmetric and asymmetric responses of CO₂ emission to changes in stock market development indicators. Using both the panel linear and nonlinear ARDL, our results demonstrate the asymmetric effects of stock market development indicator son carbon emissions in the context of emerging markets. In particular, the long-run elasticities results suggest that positive and negative shocks on stock market indicator decreases environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. Based on these empirical findings, this study offers some crucial policy implications. Especially, policy makers should implement strong environmental policies in emerging markets economies to reduce carbon emissions of industrial companies without significantly affecting the development of financial markets.     

Banking efficiency and stock market performance: an analysis of listed Indonesian banks

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the monthly profit-based technical efficiency and productivity of listed Indonesian banks and their market performance. We examined the banks through the prism of two modelling techniques, efficiency and super-efficiency, over the period January 2003 to end-July 2007. Within this research strategy we employed Tone??s (2001) non-parametric, Slacks-Based Model (SBM) and Tone??s (2002) super-efficiency SBM to estimate the bank efficiencies. They were then combined with recent bootstrapping techniques, namely the non-parametric truncated regression analysis suggested by Simar and Wilson (2007), to identify the determinants of the efficiency scores. With respect to the latter, in the case of the SBM efficiency scores, the Simar and Wilson methodology was adapted to two truncations, whereas in the super-efficiency framework the original technique was utilised. The first part of the analysis reveals that listed banks?? average efficiencies varied widely over the sample period, from a low of 34% to a high of 97%, with only one bank having a score in excess of unity under the super-efficiency framework. The two most efficient banks were domestically owned. With respect to the truncated regression analysis, we found that the banks?? efficiency scores were positively correlated with share prices and return on equity in all models, and with the log of total assets in the super-efficiency analysis. Moreover, it was found that the JCI index of the Indonesian Stock Exchange is positively related to bank efficiency in all models. Another interesting finding is that the coefficient for the share of foreign ownership is negative and statistically significant in the super-efficiency modelling. This suggests that Indonesian banks with foreign ownership tend to be less efficient than their domestic counterparts. Finally, Malmquist productivity results suggest that, over the study??s horizon, the sample banks displayed volatile productivity patterns in their profit-generating operations.