The economic crisis of the 1990s in Finland

In the 1990s, Finland underwent a deep depression as its GDP dropped about 14% and unemployment rose from 3 to almost 20%. This is a story of bad luck and bad policies. Bad luck took the form of external shocks: the collapse of trade with the former Soviet Union in 1991, but also sharp cycles in the OECD area. However, bad luck is far from being the whole story. In the absence of bad policies, Finland would have experienced a recession, not a depression. Bad policies included a poorly designed financial regulation and mistaken reactions to the onset of the crisis. Of particular interest is the role of financial factors in triggering the crisis and aggravating the effects of bad policies. Not only were consumption and investment spending hurt by the credit crunch, but there is evidence that the private sector's indebtedness has increased structural unemployment, which explains why the recovery is proceeding with few job creations. A number of general lessons emerge. They concern the deregulation of financial markets, the policy reaction to massive capital inflows and the role of employment policies.     

The college-to-work transition during the 1990s: evidence from Sweden

This article analyses the time it takes for Swedish college graduates to start a full time job that lasts for 6 months or more. The focus is on the transition over time during the period 1991 to 1999. This period covers both upturns and downturns of the business cycle, providing a unique opportunity to consider the importance of the timing of graduation. The results show that the risk of unemployment and the unemployment duration have varied considerably with the business cycle, both within and between cohorts. For example, the field of education is of more importance for the outcomes during recessions. Further, the relative risk of unemployment has decreased over time for individuals with the highest degree of education whereas the unemployment duration has increased, indicating that the selection into unemployment for this group may have changed over time. This is interesting, not least in the light of the sharp expansion of the higher educational system during the study period.     

Survey Evidence on Wage Rigidity and Unemployment: Sweden in the 1990s*

We document the results of a repeat survey, which updates Agell and Lundborg (1995) , on wage rigidity in a sample of 159 Swedish manufacturing firms, conducted during the severe Swedish recession of the 1990s. It is found that not even a prolonged period of very high unemployment and quite low inflation softened workers’ resistance to wage cuts. We discuss possible reasons for this. In addition, we report new evidence on underbidding, efficiency‐wage mechanisms, and unemployment persistence.     

Lessons from the recent economic crisis: the Australian household stimulus package

This paper provides an impact evaluation analysis of the 2009 Australian Household Stimulus Package, which was composed by three main cash payments: the Back to School Bonus, the Single Income Family Bonus and the Tax Bonus for Working Australians. Using panel data from the 2008 and 2009 HILDA surveys, the results show that these cash payments reduced the risk of poverty and stimulated consumption expenditure. Nonetheless, only the Back to School Bonus and the Single Income Family Bonus were really important in achieving these goals, while the Tax Bonus for Working Australians did not contribute to stimulate consumption and failed to reduce the risk of poverty. Thus, the analysis confirms the crucial role of governments to protect the most vulnerable groups avoiding a dramatic deterioration of social outcomes and favoring a fast economic recovery when interventions are timely and well-targeted.     

Uneven Development and Grounded Comparative Institutional Advantage: Lessons from Sweden and Mondragon

In this paper we use the theory of grounded comparative institutional advantage to analyze the possibilities for progressive development in the face of the uneven development patterns endemic to neoliberal capitalist development. We demonstrate that efforts to promote institutional structures to spur regional development, such as Swedish efforts to create high wage jobs via education, training, and technology diffusion, and the Mondragon Cooperative’s efforts to create and preserve manufacturing jobs via education, technology development and cooperative organization, can be a countervailing power to the forces of capitalist uneven development, if the state becomes a major allocator of investment funds. To succeed in creating stable, progressively-oriented industries in a region within a capitalist economy, there must be cushions for firms against downturns and sectoral shifts, mechanisms for the creation of cutting edge technologies, and a commitment to reallocate investment to key industries. Otherwise the forces of uneven development, spatially and sectorally, will tend to prevail. While the models developed by Sweden and Mondragon hold promise, this approach requires a major political commitment to the region, and a willingness to embrace some of the vagaries of international capitalism.     

Taxation and household portfolio composition: US evidence from the 1980s and 1990s

This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases.     

Explaining ethnic unemployment and activity rates: evidence from the QLFS in the 1990s and 2000s

This article uses data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey for 1992–95 and 2000–03 to examine changes in ethnic unemployment and economic activity. The intention was to compare the relatively high unemployment era of the 1990s with the lower unemployment era of the 2000s. Although the ethnic minority unemployment situation has improved, only half of the difference between white and non‐white unemployment can be attributed to differences in observed characteristics. This suggests that a large unexplained discriminatory element still exists for most ethnic minorities. This has become larger for Pakistani/Bangladeshi men, implying a widening of the unexplained ethnic differential.     

Making EMU Work: Some lessons from the 1990s

This paper investigates what lessons may be learned from Europe's convergence process of the 1990s. The paper challenges the conventional focus on labour market institutions and 'structural rigidities' as the root cause behind Europe's poor employment record. Instead, it is argued that macro demand management played the key role, particularly monetary policy. Concentrating on Germany, the analysis shows that fiscal consolidation was accompanied by monetary tightness of an extraordinary degree and duration. This finding is of interest regarding the past as well as the future. For the Maastricht regime much resembles the one that produced the unsound policy mix of the 1990s: a constrained fiscal authority paired with an independent monetary authority free to impose its will on the overall outcome. The analysis thus highlights a key asymmetry in the Maastricht regime that is likely to continue to inflict a deflationary bias on the system. It is argued that this policy bias may be overcome only if the ECB deliberately assumed its real role of generating domestic demand-led growth, thereby resolving Euroland's key structural problem: asymmetric monetary policy. As regards the conventional structuralist theme, the analysis debunks the 'Dutch myth' of supply-led growth through structural reform. Depicting a popular fallacy of composition, we stress that the peculiar Dutch strategy of demand-led growth does not present itself as an option for Euroland.     

Unemployment duration and the role of compositional variation: evidence from a period of economic crisis in Finland

The recession of the early 1990s caused a serious unemployment problem in Finland. This study investigates the role of compositional variation in unemployment duration using individual data on Finnish workers. The compositional effect is examined by predicting the impact of the observed unemployment inflow heterogeneity on aggregate re-employment rates. Focusing on a recession period provides useful variation for the analysis due to large increase in the unemployment inflow. According to the results, the aggregate outflow effect dominates and the observed compositional variation implies only a small increasing trend in the average duration during the recession period.     

美国90年代经济持续增长的启示

本文通过对美国经济增长原因的深入研究,对我国加入WTO后的经济发展借鉴外国经验,有许多有益的启示,尤其对于促进经济结构调整,保持经济持续稳定增长更有借鉴意义。     

Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships among income distribution, debt ratio and capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. One explanation for the relatively slow growth of the Brazilian economy is the relatively low rate of investment. The paper presents an econometric model, based on Nishi, to investigate the causes of instability in investment in the period. It concludes that the Brazilian economy since the economic opening presents a debt-burdened pattern of capital accumulation.     

Political economy of China’s trade policy: the evidence from industrial protection in 1990s

The theory of the political economy of trade policy, combining public choice and neoclassical trade theories, studies the level and pattern of trade intervention from the perspective of policy decision-making process, by stressing on income distribution instead of economic efficiency. The paper attempts to apply such an endogenous trade theory to an empirical study of China. On the basis of a formal revised model of political economy of trade protection, it tests theoretical hypotheses concerning the political and economic determinants of cross-sector trade protection in the Chinese industry at various periods. The results show that trade protection in China fits into China’s national development strategy of fast catching-up with the developed world.     

石油危机对中国国际贸易发展战略的警示

自从2003年年底以来,国际油价一直呈波动中的大幅上扬态势。2004年第一、二季度的油价一路上升,3月份的平均价超过了32美元/桶,比上年同期提高3.27美元,达到1990年10月以来的月平均最高价。2004年4月,伊拉克局势混乱更增添了国际油市的紧张气氛,油价直线上升,比2003年同期上涨近7美元。5月的平均价为36.37美元/捅,比2003年同期上涨了近11美元,创下了1990年10月以来的月平均最高价的新纪录。到2004年6月中旬,欧佩克(OPEC)油价已持续半年超过28美元/桶的上限,创下了石油价格上涨的新纪录。而到8月5日,油价则创下44.41美元/桶的历史新高,最高…     

Racial discrimination and professional basketball salaries in the 1990s

Racial differences in professional basketball player salaries are examined to determine whether the 20% premium paid to whites in the mid-1980s has persisted into the 1990s. OLS and tobit regressions indicate no difference between white and black salaries, controlling for player and team characteristics for the 1994 - 95 season. However, censored quantile regressions show substantial racial differences at certain points in the salary distribution. Whites earn less than blacks at the lower end of the distribution, although the difference is not statistically significant, and varies with minutes played. In contrast, whites receive a significant premium (18%) at the upper end of the salary distribution. These findings are consistent with a form of consumer discrimination in which sports fans prefer to see white star players, all else equal.     

1990年代的中国散文民中国文化

伴随着国家政治文化中心的转移,１９９０年代的中国文学在中国社会文化整体结构中的地位发生了微妙而重要的变化;一种受市场意识形态支配的文学写作动向首先在散文领域显现了出来;从１９９０年代前期“文化散文”和“学者散文”等文学/市场品牌的创制,到１９９０年代后期“黑马文丛”的风行,１９９０年代的中国散文写作和相关的理论活动,在积极参与意识形态话语重构的过程中确立了自己的主流品格,而真正在文学史和社会、艺术价值的尺度上达到较高水准的少数人的散文写作活动,却被屏蔽在主流现象之外。