中国金融系统压力指数的设计及其应用

结合当前金融系统的特点设计了中国金融系统压力指数,并通过两种方法检验了其识别作用;然后利用VAR模型对其宏观效应展开研究,基于Hsiao格兰杰因果检验过程对金融压力的直接和间接因果关系进行了验证,并采用VARX模型予以稳健性检验;最后,分析了金融压力变化时央行的政策反应及金融市场的反应。研究发现我国金融系统性压力主要集中在高压和低压区间,金融压力指数对宏观经济波动有较好的预测作用,货币政策的反应更明显地通过非常规货币政策工具实现。     

我国各省区科技金融发展水平的实证分析(2005-2012)

作为拉动经济健康增长的两大引擎,科技和金融的融合对转变经济增长方式、构建创新型国家有着至关重要的作用。通过对2005年至2012年的科技金融数据的计算分析,建立科技金融发展指数以反映出科技金融发展水平,再通过聚类分析,得出如下关于科技金融发展的结论:建立更多高新技术开发区和高校、确保科技金融投入和产出的稳定性、统筹兼顾各地区的科技金融发展。     

新时期中国金融支持实体经济发展的区域差异北大核心

在"十三五"规划以及新经济背景下,确保金融业与实体经济的协调发展是实现中国经济稳步增长的重要举措。新时期供给侧结构性改革对中国现阶段金融支持实体经济发展的状况,中国金融支持实体经济发展的有效性及区域差异都提出新要求。基于31个省份12年的实体经济融资额与实体经济增加值数据,对各省份以及东、中、西三大经济区的金融支持效率进行测算,发现中国金融支持实体经济的效率总体呈下降趋势,出现金融业过度发展而实体经济受到挤压的局面。从技术效率指数以及TFP有效性指数两个维度,运用聚类分析法将31个省份划分为7类。采用31个省份的面板数据对影响金融支持实体经济发展的主要因素加以验证,结果表明,直接融资比重对于提升金融支持的有效性作用显著。因此,应进一步提升直接融资比重,大力扶持中小企业的发展,同时也应缩小区域发展差异,提升金融服务于实体经济的效率。     

新时期中国金融支持实体经济发展的区域差异

在"十三五"规划以及新经济背景下,确保金融业与实体经济的协调发展是实现中国经济稳步增长的重要举措。新时期供给侧结构性改革对中国现阶段金融支持实体经济发展的状况,中国金融支持实体经济发展的有效性及区域差异都提出新要求。基于31个省份12年的实体经济融资额与实体经济增加值数据,对各省份以及东、中、西三大经济区的金融支持效率进行测算,发现中国金融支持实体经济的效率总体呈下降趋势,出现金融业过度发展而实体经济受到挤压的局面。从技术效率指数以及TFP有效性指数两个维度,运用聚类分析法将31个省份划分为7类。采用31个省份的面板数据对影响金融支持实体经济发展的主要因素加以验证,结果表明,直接融资比重对于提升金融支持的有效性作用显著。因此,应进一步提升直接融资比重,大力扶持中小企业的发展,同时也应缩小区域发展差异,提升金融服务于实体经济的效率。     

宏观审慎监管的内涵与框架分析

随着金融市场的深化与发展,金融机构之间以及金融机构与金融市场间的关联性日益增强,从而使得金融风险发生的概率大幅度上升,表现形式日益复杂,破坏性越来越大.金融系统性风险有可能会在表面平静的经济体内部累积,并对实体经济造成巨大冲击.维护金融稳定、化解系统性风险是所有经济金融政策的共同责任.因此,各国和国际都将宏观审慎监管作为监管重点并加以强化,以防止和控制系统性金融风险的发生.     

新疆经济增长质量分析

文章以新疆2000—2010年相关统计数据为依据，通过构建经济增长质量指数，对新疆经济增长质量状况进行评价，结论显示2000—2010年新疆经济增长质量不断提高，要先从经济效率和增长稳定性角度加大政策调整力度，再结合其他方面的发展政策共同推动经济增长质量的提高。     

科技金融促进徐州科技型中小企业高质量发展研究

徐州市大力推动科技与金融深度结合,以科技金融助推实体经济和科技型企业高质量发展.通过对徐州科技金融发展现状、问题的分析研究,提出徐州科技与金融结合实现新发展模式和路径,为职能部门制定政策、支持科技与金融结合发展提供理论依据和参考借鉴.     

山西区域金融发展差异研究:基于泰尔指数的分析

本文将山西省分为晋北、晋中、晋南及晋东南四个区域,通过选取山西省各区域2003年至2011年的相关经济与金融发展数据,运用泰尔指数对各区域金融发展差异程度,区域间、区域内金融发展差异程度及总差异进行了实证分析并计算了其相应的差异贡献率。结果表明,晋中地区的差异程度最大;总差异先升后降,区域间差异走势与其基本吻合,区域内差异以较小的幅度上升;区域内差异在多数年份决定了总差异,晋中地区的差异贡献率最高。     

江苏县域金融推进县域经济发展的策略研究

以江苏省为背景,首先回顾分析了国内外学者对经济金融和谐发展的精辟论述,然后通过分析江苏区域经济与金融发展的现实特征,提出江苏区域金融建设和促进区域经济发展的政策建议.     

中国钢铁行业景气指数实证分析

本文先采用景气指数普遍的编制方法,选出一批有代表性的敏感的经济指标,确定一个基准指标,然后根据波峰波谷分析法分成先行、一致、滞后三组指标,编制反映经济景气的合成指数指数。首先,选取影响经济运行的因素作为评价经济景气的指标,然后收集指标的资料,对各指标结合经济目标进行评价,最后依据2000-2014年钢铁行业各年度的数据编制了钢铁行业景气指数。     

Financial crises and economic growth

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky due to randomness in the firms’ production. Financial crises occur when output and liquid capital are insufficient to meet required loan payments and systemic defaults occur. In this model, a financial crisis caused by systemic defaults can shift the economy from an equilibrium with positive borrowing/lending to an equilibrium with no borrowing/lending. In this no-lending equilibrium, neither traditional fiscal or monetary policy tools are effective in increasing output. Fiscal and monetary policy can only increase the likelihood of the equilibrium evolving to a borrowing/lending equilibrium.     

Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy

We analyze the connectedness between the real and the financial sectors of the U.S. economy. Using the weekly ADS index of the Philadelphia Fed (the widely used business conditions indicator) to represent the real side, we find that during times of financial distress and business cycle turning points, the direction of connectedness runs from the real sector to financial markets. The ADS index is derived from a model containing a measure of term structure along with real variables. Therefore, it might not be the best representative of the real activity used in the connectedness analysis. As an alternative, we derive a real activity index (RAI) from a dynamic factor model of the real sector variables only. The behavior of RAI over time is quite similar to that of the ADS index. When we include RAI to represent the real side, connectedness from the real side to financial markets weakens substantially, while the connectedness from financial markets to the real side becomes more pronounced.     

Global finance,sovereign risk and economic performance of Brazil

This paper examines the impact of globalized financial markets on domestic economic policymaking and, ultimately, on economic sovereignty. It argues that the development of dollar-denominated Brady bonds, eurobonds, and global bonds issued by Latin sovereigns opened a new venue for foreign capital to participate in economic affairs of these countries. A natural outcome of the globalization of Brazil’s financial markets has been the increased vulnerability of the Brazilian economy to contagion from financial crises in other troubled markets of the globe. This paper focuses on how the contagion channel compromised domestic economic policymaking and affected the real sector of the Brazilian economy. It offers the first analytical attempt at estimating the real cost of contagion by investigating the impact of the Russian and the Argentine crises on Brazil’s output and production.     

A retrospective on the subprime crisis and its aftermath ten years after Lehman’s collapse

This paper reviews the interactions between policymaking, the financial system and the U.S. economy before, during and after the subprime crisis, with particular attention to current controversies about the policy decisions that led to Lehman’s downfall and their lessons for the future. The first part of the paper documents and analyzes the interactions between policy, financial markets and the economy during the acute and subsequent moderate phases of the crisis as well as during the later gradual exit from the zero lower bound and the extremely slow reduction in high powered money and bank reserves. The remaining parts develop alternative aspects of the thesis that mutual uncertainties inflicted by financial institutions on policymakers and by the latter on financial markets were at the root of the non-negligible surprises that the crisis inflicted on everybody. In particular, it discusses the political economy of bailout operations, reviews and evaluates recent controversies about the reasons for not rescuing Lehman Brothers, and informally presents the structure and policy lessons from a general equilibrium model of the financial sector highlighting the consequences of policy actions that have raised (Knightian) bailout uncertainty. The last section takes a brief look ahead and discusses some longer term consequences of the crisis.     

STOCK‐FLOW INTERACTIONS,DISEQUILIBRIUM MACROECONOMICS AND THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC POLICY

This paper presents the ‘KMGT’ (Keynes–Metzler–Goodwin–Tobin) portfolio model and studies its stability properties. The approach to macrodynamic modelling taken here extends the KMG model of Chiarella and Flaschel (2000) , focusing in particular on the incorporation of financial markets and policy issues. The original KMG model considered three asset markets (equities, bonds and money) but depicted them in a rudimentary way so that they had little influence on the real side of the model. The only financial market influencing the real side of the economy was the money market (via an LM curve theory of interest). Here Tobin's portfolio choice theory models the demand for each asset in such a way that the total amount of assets that households want to hold equals their net wealth, which is a stock constraint attached to portfolio choice. There is also a flow constraint, that the net amount of assets accumulated (liabilities issued) by one sector must equal its net savings (expenditures). The Tobinian macroeconomic portfolio approach characterizes the potential for financial market instability, focusing on the interconnectedness of all three markets. The paper goes on to study the potential for labour market and fiscal policies to stabilize unstable macroeconomies.     

MACRO‐FINANCE LINKAGES

In this survey, I review the academic and policy‐oriented literature on the linkages between financial markets and the rest of the economy. First, I summarize the leading economic theories for why the financial sector can influence the macroeconomy. Second, I consider empirical research on spillovers from the financial sector to the rest of the economy, as well as across financial markets in different countries. Third, I discuss key monetary policy debates regarding the appropriate response of central banks to financial conditions. Finally, I conclude with an overview of the major gaps in the existing literature.     

Failure of the index theorem in an incomplete market economy

Recently, it was proved that the index of an economy with incomplete real asset markets is typically +1$+1$ when the degree of incompleteness, which is defined as the difference between the number of states and the number of securities, is an even number. This paper considers the case where the degree of incompleteness is an odd number and proves that any odd number can be realized as the index of such an economy.     

Evaluating inflation targeting based on the distribution of inflation and inflation volatility

In this paper the Financial Development Index (FDI) is used to rank 57 of the world's leading financial systems. Its calculation is based on the following 7 economic pillars: (1) Institutional environment, (2) Business environment, (3) Financial stability, (4) Banking financial services, (5) Non-banking financial services, (6) Financial markets, and (7) Financial access. Pillar (4) is constructed from bond markets, stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and derivative markets. Pillar (5) includes a country's IPO activity, namely the IPO market share, IPO proceeds amount, and IPOs share of world IPOs. The stock market index provides a short-term account of financial activities, whereas the FDI provides a long-term broader account of the financial structure and health of an economy. As the performance and success of a given monetary policy would less likely be judged on short-term dynamics, it seems sensible to use the annual FDI as one of several economic and country attributes in a policy evaluation of Inflation Targeting. The paper offers a potential outcomes analysis of the impact of inflation targeting on inflation and inflation volatility, and focuses on advanced economies that adopt ⿿inflation targeting⿿ as a formal monetary policy. In order to deal with the counterfactual question, namely what would be the inflation rate for an adopting country had it not adopted this policy, the paper offers a new matching technique that subsumes the traditional propensity scores methods as a special case. The paper has different proposals for assessing ⿿matching⿿ based on the whole distribution of any ⿿scores⿿. Additionally, the paper goes beyond the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and examines the entire distribution of inflation and its ⿿variability⿿. It is found that the adoption of inflation targeting has helped lower inflation (not just the mean) for the targeting countries. However, it is shown that exact numerical quantification of this policy effect is as highly subjective as choosing ideal social welfare functions. The paper also finds no evidence of a larger gain for ⿿late adopters⿿ of inflation targeting. As for inflation variability, there is some robust evidence of small and often statistically insignificant reduction in variability due to targeting.     

A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy

We have incorporated a financial accelerator mechanism operating through investments in the business sector in a dynamic macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. In this new and amended model aggregated credit and equity prices are determined simultaneously in a system characterized by a two-directional contemporaneous causal link, which has been designed and estimated by a new procedure for simultaneous structural model design. Combined with a mechanism where credit and asset prices are mutually influenced by real investments, this creates a financial accelerator amplified by a credit-asset price spiral. Simulations illustrate how the introduction of a financial accelerator significantly reinforces and extends the economic cycles in projections and forecasts, in particular when confronted by a severe shock. Furthermore, monetary policy has a markedly stronger effect in the short and medium term, while the impact of fiscal policy is affected to a relatively small degree as it is more remotely linked to financial markets.     

Stock Prices and the Real Economy: Power Law versus Exponential Distributions

This paper explores the relationship between the stock prices and the real economy. The standard approach – the so called consumption-based asset pricing model – attempts to explain it based on the assumption of the representative agent. In this paper, we argue that the representative agent assumption is fundamentally flawed. Drawing on the recent advancement of “econophysics” on financial markets See Mantegna and Stanley (An Introduction to econophysics: correlations and complexity in finance, 2000) for the introduction to econophysics, we argue that in contrast to the neoclassical view, there is in fact a wedge between financial markets, the stock prices in particular, and the real economy.