业绩预告的类型会影响其准确性吗?——基于盈余管理动机视角

业绩预告的经验品属性使得资本市场如何预判业绩预告的准确性显得尤为重要,但已有研究难以为资本市场提供简单直接且便于观测的预判标准.本文通过挖掘业绩预告类型可能隐藏的盈余管理动机,以2010-2018年度在资产负债表日后披露业绩预告的A股上市公司为研究对象,实证考察盈余管理动机是否以及如何影响业绩预告准确性.实证研究发现,盈余管理动机越强,业绩预告的准确性越低;作用机制检验发现,审计师对盈余管理动机较强的公司进行了更多的审计调整,使得定期报告中的盈余水平偏离了业绩预告中的盈余水平,从而导致了业绩预告准确性的降低;在控制内生性问题和稳健性测试后实证结果保持不变.研究表明业绩预告类型隐藏的盈余管理动机信息,可以帮助资本市场预判业绩预告的准确性.     

基于山东墨龙业绩反转事件探究虚假披露的成本

近年来,上市公司虚假信息披露的事件层出不穷,其中一个重要原因就是造假成本太低。文章以山东墨龙业绩预告的虚假披露为例,分析上市公司虚假信息披露成本,主要通过事件分析法下的超额收益和成交量来分析市场对于上市公司业绩预告和修正的反应程度,以探究虚假披露对公司声誉的损耗。文章发现在业绩预告方面,上市公司进行虚假披露的成本非常低,所以市场上业绩反转的现象才会频频发生,建议从上市公司以及市场监管等多角度做出努力,减少虚假披露现象。     

CEO变更对公司业绩预告披露频率的影响研究

CEO作为企业的掌舵人,直接参与公司层面的战略决策,必然对财务报告的呈报施加影响,在一定程度上也影响了业绩预告。文章选取2012～2016年CEO发生变更的公司作为研究样本,通过多元回归模型进行实证分析,发现CEO变更与业绩预告披露频率显著负相关。     

杜邦分析体系的改进研究

为弥补传统杜邦分析体系的缺陷,文章提出了以每股EVA为核心的改进杜邦分析体系模型,使用偏最小二乘法研究了传统模型和改进模型对企业业绩的线性回归关系及拟合程度。研究表明每股EVA、权益净利率对业绩评价有不同侧重点,认为改进的杜邦分析体系能更准确地反映指标蕴含的财务信息,进而更好地评价企业业绩。     

上市房企撑不住了

50多家披露业绩预告,下滑不可逆转犹如天气预报里各地天气的阴晴不定,A股上市的房地产企业的中报业绩预告也出现了迥然分化。截至8月初,在剔除同名B股后,上市房企已有52家披露了业绩预告。其中有5家公司出现首亏,9家预减,10家继亏,2家预减。     

中小创的“火”与国企的“冰”

7月6日,沃华医药披露沪深两市第一份中报,A股正式进入财报季。截至7月18日,沪深两市2780家上市公司中已有1763家发布半年报业绩预告,占比超过63%。1763家公司中,预增公司为382家,续盈公司为163家,扭亏公司为97家,略增公司为454家,预喜公司合计1096家,占已发布业绩预告公司总数的62%,占全部2780家上市公司的比例为39%。整体来看,业绩呈现冰火两重天的状态。一方面,备受争议的创业板业绩表现好于预期;另一方面,在A股震荡调整阶段,大面积上市公司出现业绩修正。     

上市房企撑不住了

犹如天气预报里各地天气的阴晴不定,A股上市的房地产企业的中报业绩预告也出现了迥然分化。截至8月初,在剔除同名B股后,上市房企已有52家披露了业绩预告。其中有5家公司出现首亏,9家预减,10家继亏,2家预减．     

半年报：银行、上游行业成大赢家

进入7月份，上市公司2008年半年报已经拉开披露序幕，而这时，不少上市公司还在忙于对上半年业绩预告进行修正：据初步统计，7月以来已有50余家公司发布了半年报业绩的修正公告，而令人担忧的是，这些修改的业绩预告反映，上半年。原料成本、费用等增长的幅度似乎超过了上市公司此前的预计，而业绩修正公司中，调低上半年净利润预期的公司也达到了5成．     

行业锦标赛激励与并购业绩承诺达标程度

高管的行业竞赛心理不仅会影响其并购决策行为,还会刺激其关注企业并购整合及并购业绩承诺的履行情况和达标程度。以2011-2019年中国A股上市公司签订业绩承诺协议的并购事件作为研究对象,考察行业锦标赛激励对标的公司业绩承诺达标程度的影响。研究发现行业锦标赛激励与业绩承诺达标程度显著正相关,表明高管受到的行业锦标赛激励效应越强,越有动机和压力督促标的公司提高业绩承诺达标率。进一步研究发现,真实盈余管理在行业锦标赛激励与业绩承诺达标程度之间起到中介作用。行业锦标赛激励对业绩承诺达标程度的提升作用在并购方是非国有企业、并购支付方式为股份支付、承诺补偿方式为股份补偿的情形下更显著。     

外资股比例与公司业绩——来自境内上市公司的经验证据

本文选取我国境内上市公司1993年至2003年间,其前五大股东中含外资股东的94家公司作为研究对象,实证考察了外资股比例与公司业绩之间的关系.研究结果显示,在同等条件下,拥有外资股的公司的业绩明显好于没有外资股的公司,外资股比例与公司业绩之间存在显著的正相关关系,引入外资股有助于提升公司的业绩.另外研究还发现,外资股股东对公司业绩的影响程度与其对公司的介入程度正相关,外资股东直接参与被持股公司生产经营管理的那些公司的业绩显著优于外资股股东未直接参与生产经营的公司的业绩,外国机构投资者对公司业绩的影响有限.     

个人、机构投资者情绪与证券分析师的乐观偏差——来自中国A股市场的证据

证券分析师的盈利预测存在着显著的乐观偏差,且这种乐观偏差会因投资者情绪的变化而忽高忽低。基于开户数量构建个人、机构投资者情绪指标,实证研究投资者情绪对证券分析师乐观偏差的影响。研究发现,个人、机构投资者情绪越乐观,证券分析师的乐观偏差越大;机构投资者情绪的波动比个人投资者更为剧烈,且对证券分析师的影响也大于个人投资者;在考虑了公司的截面特征后,结论依然稳健。研究有助于进一步理解新兴市场中证券分析师的盈利预测行为,并为投资者使用证券分析师的研究报告提供决策参考。     

Earnings Management to Avoid Losses and Earnings Decreases: Are Analysts Fooled?*

This paper explores whether analyst forecasts impound the earnings management to avoid losses and small earnings decreases documented in Burgstahler and Dichev 1997, whether analysts are able to identify which specific firms engage in such earnings management, and the implications for significant forecast error anomalies at zero earnings and zero forecast earnings. We use data from Zacks Investment Research 1999 and find that analysts anticipate earnings management to avoid small losses and small earnings decreases. Further, analysts are much more likely to forecast zero earnings than firms are to realize zero earnings, and analysts are unable to consistently identify the specific firms that engage in earnings management to avoid small losses. This latter inability contributes to significant forecast pessimism associated with zero reported earnings and significant forecast optimism associated with zero earnings forecasts.     

分析师的现金流预测有用吗——基于信息供给的视角

文章考察了证券分析师现金流预测行为对盈余预测质量的影响。研究发现,相对于没有现金流预测的公司,有预测的公司其盈余预测质量更高;现金流预测的次数越多,盈余预测质量越高;以上关系在盈余波动大、经营活动现金流波动大的公司更加明显。这说明我国分析师提供现金流预测信息的确有用,能够帮助分析师改善其盈余预测质量。文章的发现具有重要的实践价值,能够帮助投资者了解分析师现金流预测对盈余预测的影响,从而更有效地利用证券分析师报告进行决策。     

An Empirical Examination of the Divergence between Managers’ and Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts

We study circumstances when analysts’ forecasts diverge from managers’ forecasts after management guidance, and the consequences of this divergence for investors and analysts. Our results show that investors’ return response to earnings surprises based on analyst forecasts is significantly weaker when analyst and management forecasts diverge, and that this attenuating effect is stronger when the management forecast is more credible. When the divergent management forecast is more accurate than the analyst consensus forecast, the subsequent‐quarter analyst consensus forecast is significantly more accurate than that of the current quarter, and exhibits less serial correlation. Overall, our findings suggest that, when analyst and management forecasts diverge, investors find the two sources to contain complementary information, and analysts learn to improve their subsequent forecasts.     

Common Institutional Ownership and Earnings Management*

This study examines the relation between earnings management and block ownership of same‐industry peer firms by a common set of institutional investors (common institutional ownership). This relation is important given the tremendous growth of common institutional ownership and the significant influence of blockholders on financial reporting. We hypothesize that common institutional ownership mitigates earnings management by enhancing institutions' monitoring efficiency and by encouraging institutions to internalize the negative externality of a firm's earnings management on peer firms' investments. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that higher common institutional ownership is related to less earnings management. Analyses of a quasi‐natural experiment based on financial institution mergers show that this negative relation is unlikely to be driven by the endogeneity of common institutional ownership. Cross‐sectional tests provide evidence that the negative relation is stronger among firms for which common institutional ownership is likely to generate a greater reduction in institutions' information acquisition and processing costs, and among firms whose severe financial misstatements are more likely to distort co‐owned peer firms' investments, supporting both mechanisms underlying our hypothesis. Our findings inform the ongoing debate on the costs and benefits of common institutional ownership by highlighting an important benefit: the enhanced monitoring of financial reporting.     

Earnings Non‐Synchronicity and Voluntary Disclosure

Earnings non‐synchronicity reflects the extent to which firm‐specific factors determine a firm's earnings. Prior research suggests that high earnings non‐synchronicity impedes corporate outsiders' ability to process information. This study examines the impact of earnings non‐synchronicity on managers' decisions to provide earnings forecasts. We propose that high earnings non‐synchronicity motivates managers to issue earnings forecasts to reduce information asymmetry between managers and investors and to preempt costly information acquisition by outsiders. Consistently, we find a positive relation between earnings non‐synchronicity and managers' propensity to issue earnings forecasts, particularly long‐horizon forecasts. This positive relation is weaker when earnings are easier to predict based on the firm's earnings history and is stronger when the firm has higher institutional ownership and greater analyst following. We also find that the market's reaction to management forecasts increases with earnings non‐synchronicity. Overall, the evidence suggests that managers voluntarily provide earnings forecasts to alleviate the adverse consequences of earnings non‐synchronicity. These findings provide a more complete picture about the impact of earnings non‐synchronicity on a firm's information environment, and highlight the effect of the nature of information asymmetry on voluntary disclosures.     

The Effect of Enterprise Systems Implementation on the Firm Information Environment

This study uses an archival research design to assess the impact of enterprise systems on a firm's internal information environment as reflected in the production of management earnings forecasts. Specifically, the authors hypothesize that, if enterprise systems improve management's access to decision‐relevant internal information, higher quality management earnings forecasts should ensue. Consistent with disclosure theory and the purported technical characteristics of enterprise systems, the authors find a positive association between enterprise system implementations and subsequent increases in the likelihood of management forecast issuance and the accuracy of the forecasts. Additional robustness tests support the argument that improvements in management forecasts are due to improvements in the firm's internal information environment rather than to enhancements in management's ability to manage earnings. Beyond accumulating financial reporting information, the authors note that such systems provide management with information to make day‐to‐day operational decisions. Moreover, the paper provides a basis for considering management forecast qualities as a measurable proxy for improvements in the firm's internal information environment that result from information technology investments.     

An analysis of RSQE forecasts: 1971–1992

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of ex ante econometric model forecasts of four key macroeconomic variables: real GNP growth, the rate of price inflation measured by the GNP deflator, the civilian unemployment rate, and the Treasury Bill rate. Annual forecasts produced by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) based on the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S. Economy are compared with quasi ex ante forecasts from a four-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Statistical tests of the equality of forecast error variances as well as univariate and multivariate forecast encompassing-type tests are conducted. The forecast error variance comparisons indicate that for three of the four variables the RSQE forecasts are more accurate than the VAR forecasts and for one of the variables (real GNP growth) only slightly less accurate. The forecast encompassing-type tests indicate that the RSQE forecasts contain information not contained in the VAR forecasts and, conversely, that VAR forecasts contain information not included in the RSQE forecasts. The scope for improving RSQE forecasts by combining them with VAR forecasts is rather limited, however.     

Earnings Announcement Disclosures and Changes in Analysts' Information

This study examines how financial disclosures with earnings announcements affect sell‐side analysts' information about future earnings, focusing on disclosures of financial statements and management earnings forecasts. We find that disclosures of balance sheets and segment data are associated with an increase in the degree to which analysts' forecasts of upcoming quarterly earnings are based on private information. Further analyses show that balance sheet disclosures are associated with an increase in the precision of both analysts' common and private information, segment disclosures are associated with an increase in analysts' private information, and management earnings forecast disclosures are associated with an increase in analysts' common information. These results are consistent with analysts processing balance sheet and segment disclosures into new private information regarding near‐term earnings. Additional analysis of conference calls shows that balance sheet, segment, and management earnings forecast disclosures are all associated with more discussion related to these items in the questions‐and‐answers section of conference calls, consistent with analysts playing an information interpretation role with respect to these disclosures.     

Financial Determinants of Corporate R&D Investment in Korea

This paper investigates the relationship between corporate investment in R&D and finance. By using panel data on Korean manufacturing firms between 1999 and 2008, we find that R&D investment is sensitive to fluctuations in internal cash flow and that debt is more important than equity in financing R&D expenditure. This empirical result supports the traditional theory of financing hierarchy. In relation to equity ownership, the empirical result shows that ownership concentration and foreign ownership positively affect R&D investment, but institutional ownership does not show any significant effect on investment. This study synthetically analyzes the relation between finance and investment by simultaneously considering corporate finance, equity ownership structure, macroeconomic environments and the institutional setting of Korea.