Consideration, choice, and classifying loyalty

Presented is an approach to classify a brand’s buyers into groups with varying degrees of loyalty along a continuum from “hard-core loyal” to “hard-core switcher.” A taxonomy is developed based on the joint use of stated consideration set and brand-switching data. In an empirical application to the automobile industry, classic stochastic models such as Grover-Srinivasan (J Mark Res 24:139–153, 1987) and Colombo-Morrison (Mark Sci 8(1):89–99, 1989), which attempt to recover the heterogeneity existing in the switching matrix overstate the number of hard-core loyals (buyers who repurchase with probability one) by 48% and 67%, respectively. The proposed taxonomy illuminates the sources of the overestimation and provides insights into the brand health of competing automotive makes.

The influence of pre-decisional constraints on information search and consideration set formation in new automobile purchases

We propose that the manner in which a purchase decision is initiated has an important influence on subsequent product evaluation and choice. Specifically, we propose that the problem recognition “event” and the consequent retrieval of pre-decisional constraints from memory significantly influence the ensuing processes of external information search and consideration set formation. Several hypotheses are developed to model these interrelationships. The data were collected from a national probability sample of new automobile buyers. Log-linear, logistic regression and linear regression analyses were used to test the hypotheses. The results suggest that the type of pre-decisional constraints that are activated as a consequence of the problem recognition event significantly influences the “route” consumers follow through the remainder of the purchase process. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications for understanding the consumer decision process for consumer durables.     

Consideration set influences on consumer decision-making and choice: Issues,models, and suggestions

This paper affords a stylized view of individual consumer choice decision-making appropriate to the study of many marketing decisions. It summarizes issues relating to consideration set effects on consumer judgment and choice. It discusses whether consideration sets really exist and, if so, the factors that affect their composition, structure, and role in decision-making. It examines some new developments in the measurement and modeling of consideration set effects on decision-making. The paper concludes with suggestions for needed research. The authors wish to acknowledge the numerous ideas and perspectives contributed by the other members of the Banff Symposium workshop:Mukesh Bhargava (University of Alberta),Bill Black (Louisiana State University),Gary Gaeth (University of Iowa),Hotaka Katahira (University of Tokyo, Japan),Gilles Laurent (Centre HEC-ISA, France),Irwin Levin (University of Iowa),David Midgley (Australian Graduate School of Management),Thomas Novak (Southern Methodist University), andJames Wiley (University of Alberta). This paper has benefited greatly from their contributions.     

Consideration-set heuristics

Consumers often choose products by first forming a consideration set and then choosing from among considered products. When there are many products to screen (or many features to evaluate), it is rational for consumers to use consider-then-choose decision processes and to do so with heuristic decision rules. Managerial decisions (product development, marketing communications, etc.) depend upon the ability to identify and react to consumers' heuristic consideration-set rules. We provide managerial examples and review the state-of-the-art in the theory and measurement of consumers' heuristic consideration-set rules. Advances in greedoid methods, Bayesian inference, machine-learning, incentive alignment, measurement formats, and unstructured direct elicitation make it feasible and cost-effective to understand, quantify, and simulate “what-if” scenarios for a variety of heuristics. These methods now apply to a broad set of managerial problems including applications in complex product categories with large numbers of product features and feature-levels.     

Affine multiple yield curve models

We provide a general and tractable framework under which all multiple yield curve modeling approaches based on affine processes, be it short rate, Libor market, or Heath–Jarrow–Morton modeling, can be consolidated. We model a numéraire process and multiplicative spreads between Libor rates and simply compounded overnight indexed swap rates as functions of an underlying affine process. Besides allowing for ordered spreads and an exact fit to the initially observed term structures, this general framework leads to tractable valuation formulas for caplets and swaptions and embeds all existing multicurve affine models. The proposed approach also gives rise to new developments, such as a short rate type model driven by a Wishart process, for which we derive a closed‐form pricing formula for caplets. The empirical performance of two specifications of our framework is illustrated by calibration to market data.     

建国以来我国旱灾述略

旱灾在世界范围内具有普遍性,我国也是一个旱灾频繁的国家。针对建国以来我国旱灾的概况、旱灾的成因、抗旱的措施作一粗浅梳理,认为加大水利建设的投入、采取科学的救灾措施和制定抗旱的预警机制,是提高抗旱能力的当务之急。     

邵阳烟草物流信息系统现状分析与思考

本文结合邵阳烟草物流信息系统的现状,对邵阳烟草物流信息系统中存在的问题进行了具体的分析和思考,创造性的提出了一些实际问题的解决方案。     

关于我国发展绿色贸易的思考

绿色贸易是一个国家或地区国际竞争力的重要标志。本文分析了我国发展绿色贸易存在的主要问题及其产生的原因,结合我国发展绿色贸易的实际和国际绿色贸易发展的趋势,提出了若干政策建议。     

Multi-stage purchase decision models: Accommodating response heterogeneity, common demand shocks, and endogeneity using disaggregate data

The most comprehensive models of purchase behavior for frequently purchased supermarket items explain households' purchase incidence decisions (whether to buy), brand choice decisions (what to buy), and purchase quantity decisions (how much to buy). In this study, we develop a three-stage purchase incidence/brand choice/purchase quantity model for household-level data in which all three stages are specified with (i) random coefficient distributions for model covariates and (ii) random effect distributions to account for unobserved factors affecting demand (known as common demand shocks), while also (iii) controlling for the effects of endogeneity on prices. Compared to current state-of-the-art models for multi-stage purchase decisions, the results show improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy when purchase behaviors are modeled with all of these components in combination. Perhaps more importantly, when common demand shocks are ignored, substantial differences in parameter estimates and diagnostic information about consumer behavior are likely (median differences in parameter estimates are 10% and 20% in two product categories), which impact managerial deliberations about price and promotion policies. Further, failure to account for common demand shocks affects the mean and variance of random coefficient distributions in unpredictable directions, which could produce results that encourage managers to pursue inappropriate and costly micro-level product marketing strategies.     

Some observations on models of growth and distribution with autonomous demand growth

This paper offers some theoretical and methodological observations on a model of growth and distribution, recently developed by Franklin Serrano and others and called the Sraffian supermultiplier model, in which the growth of autonomous capitalist consumption demand and distribution are exogenously given and capacity utilization is at an exogenously given “normal” level in long‐run equilibrium. First, it provides a simple long‐run equilibrium version and dynamic formulation of the model, and compares it to other models of growth and distribution using a common framework and focusing on the effect of a change in income distribution on growth. Second, it shows that the model can be modified to examine other components of autonomous demand growth, including government spending, exports, consumption by workers, and investment and technical change, and to simultaneous multiple sources of autonomous demand growth. Finally, it comments on some methodological issues concerning the model, and on its implications for the notion of long‐run equilibrium.     

Information search and consideration set formation in a web-based store environment

The research reported here attempts to understand information search and consideration set formation in a web-based choice environment. A conceptual model is used to propose hypotheses that link information search and consideration set formation with two task environment influences that are typical of online settings. A study that simulates information search and consideration set formation in a web-based choice environment is conducted to test the hypotheses. The results offer insights into how the number of available alternatives and the amount of time available may have an effect on search and evaluation in a web-based store. The research has implications for understanding how consumers shop in online stores.     

A comparison of two types of price discounts in shifting consumers' attitudes and purchase intentions

This study focuses on consumer responses to two different types of price discounts: 1) a price discount with and 2) a price discount without a minimum purchase requirement. The effects of the discounts are examined to the extent that they may change consumers' attitudes and purchase intentions regarding a particular brand, by moving it from consumers' hold set to consideration set. A three-phase study on fast-food services in China was conducted. The results of the study provide new empirical insights regarding how to use a brand categorization model to predict the effects of different types of price discounts on consumer purchase behavior. More specifically, this study demonstrates that when a price discount with and without a minimum purchase requirement is applied to a brand in a hold set, the brand moves from the consumers' hold set to the consideration set. However, the effects of the two types of price discounts on consumers' attitudes and purchase intentions are not significantly different. The results are discussed in relation to brand management and marketing strategies in consumer goods industries.     

知识产权天生论——与知识产权代价论、对价论和利益平衡论商榷

知识产权是在一定社会生产关系下知识生产过程中与生俱来的,是天生的,不是在流通或扩散中产生的,更不是国家凭空法定创制的。完整复位知识财产权是客观规律。知识流通或扩散中的垄断不是由财产权引起的,而正是由财产权得不到应有尊重和保护造成知识投资、生产和供给不足所造成的。与知识产权代价论、对价论和利益平衡论试图以法权强行限制、对价和平衡知识产权根本不同,知识产权天生论以马克思主义思想方法为指导,认为知识产权既不是对社会公众的代价,也不是法权按一定对价条件衡平或按利益平衡原则所创制的产物,而是由知识生产劳动过程创造的对社会发展所必要的财富的一部分。     

论垄断性市场中厂商产品供给曲线的存在性

西方微观经济学一直认为,只有完全竞争市场上的厂商才有产品的供给曲线,而在其它任何具有垄断性的产品市场上的厂商则没有此曲线的存在。然而,这一结论是错误的。原因在于西方微观经济学对需求变化的错误理解,并由此进一步导致了西方经济学需求理论前后逻辑上的自相矛盾。按西方微观经济学需求理论的逻辑推导,垄断性的产品市场上的厂商也同样存在可以描述和定义的产品供给曲线。这一结论的存在为宏观总产品供给曲线的推导提供了微观基础。     

人员选聘的直觉模糊复合决策模式

在探讨了人员选聘的意义和标准的基础上,根据人员选聘标准具有模糊性,以及复合决策中不同岗位对人员的个性能力有不同要求,不同人员的个性能力也各不相同的特点,给出了一种直觉模糊复合决策模式,并结合模拟算例说明了该模型的应用,具有较强的实用性和信度。     

基于ELES模型的我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性分析

利用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),并借助SPSS13.0统计软件对2009年我国农村居民消费需求价格弹性进行实证分析。结果发现农村居民人均年纯收入与各项消费支出高度相关;农村居民各项消费需求自价格弹性都为负值,位居前三位的分别是交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务;农村居民各项消费需求互弹性都小于0,互价格弹性绝对值小于自价格弹性绝对值;各类消费品价格变动对交通通讯需求量影响最大;食品价格变动对其他各类消费品需求量影响最大。最后提出降低交通通讯、居住、文教娱乐用品及服务价格、调整食品价格,使食品价格保持在合理水平、提高农村居民收入等建议。     

Understanding consumer's brand categorization across three countries: Application of fuzzy rule-based classification

In multi-brand situations, people categorize all known brands into subsets called consideration, hold, foggy and reject sets. This is the Brisoux–Laroche model. Traditional brand categorization models including this, assume that consumers can properly categorize each brand into these subsets. However, a brand with both perceived positive and negative attributes increases the difficulty for a consumer to decide about the placement into subsets. This study investigates consumers' brand categorization when a brand has both perceived positive and negative attributes. We propose that a brand may belong to more than one subset (decision fuzziness). Using fuzzy-rule-based classification, this is investigated across three cultures (Chinese, Japanese and Kazakhstan) and two product categories: Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) and beer. The findings confirm that decision fuzziness varies across cultures. Chinese consumers have less decision fuzziness for foreign brands than for local brands in the QSR market. In general, the opposite is found to be true for Japanese and Kazakh consumers.     

An investigation of determinants of counterfeit purchase consideration

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the determinants governing the likelihood of considering the purchase of counterfeit branded products (CBPs) in the context of non-deceptive counterfeiting. The study anticipates and explores the effects of consumer-perceived brand image (i.e., brand personality, product attributes, and benefits/consequences), perceived risk, product knowledge, product involvement, and consumer demographic variables. Focus groups generated the criteria that consumers use to evaluate the studied brands; the main study then collected data from interviews. The results show that among the tested variables, brand personality performs best in determining consideration of the CBP. In general, demographic variables and product involvement do not appear to be significantly influential. The results also provide empirical evidence for Plummer's (Plummer, J.T. How Personality Makes a Difference. Journal of Advertising Research 1985; 24 (6): 27-83 (December/January), Plummer, J.T. How Personality Makes a Difference. Journal of Advertising Research 2000; 40 (6): 79-83 (November/December)) notion of brand image components; furthermore the results also suggest that perceived risks should not be part of the benefit/consequence component of the brand image concept.     

Avoiding Malicious Agents in E-Commerce Using Fuzzy Recommendations

This paper presents a complex computing reputation mechanism to be applied in a domain of e-commerce, that handles reputation as a fuzzy set while decision making is inspired in a cognitive human-like approach. This reputation algorithm has been proved in several scenarios where the goal is to avoid (in other words, filter out) the disturbing influence of wrong recommendations from agents with malicious intentions, such as a collusion between a merchant and a recommender. Results show how the evolution of reputation computed with our fuzzy reputation algorithm is compared with other previous reputation models.