A SHARP model of bid–ask spread forecasts

This paper proposes an accurate, parsimonious and fast-to-estimate forecasting model for integer-valued time series with long memory and seasonality. The modelling is achieved through an autoregressive Poisson process with a predictable stochastic intensity that is determined by two factors: a seasonal intraday pattern and a heterogeneous autoregressive component. We call the model SHARP, which is an acronym for seasonal heterogeneous autoregressive Poisson. We also present a mixed-data sampling extension of the model, which adopts the historical information flow more efficiently and provides the best (among all the models considered) forecasting performances, empirically, for the bid–ask spreads of NYSE equity stocks. We conclude by showing how bid–ask spread forecasts based on the SHARP model can be exploited in order to reduce the total cost incurred by a trader who is willing to buy or sell a given amount of an equity stock.     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

A simple mean–dispersion model of ambiguity attitudes

Several characterizations of ambiguity aversion decompose preferences into the expected utility of an act and an adjustment factor, an ambiguity index, or a dispersion function. In each of these cases, the adjustment factor has very little structure imposed on it, and thus these models provide little guidance as to which function to use from the infinite class of possible alternatives. In this paper, we provide a simple axiomatic characterization of mean–dispersion preferences which uniquely determines a subjective probability distribution over a set of possible priors and which uniquely identifies the dispersion function. We provide an algorithm for determining this subjective probability distribution and the coefficient in the dispersion function from experimental data. We also demonstrate that the model accommodates ambiguity aversion in the Ellsberg paradox.     

A Bayesian mixed logit–probit model for multinomial choice

In this paper, we introduce a new flexible mixed model for multinomial discrete choice where the key individual- and alternative-specific parameters of interest are allowed to follow an assumption-free nonparametric density specification, while other alternative-specific coefficients are assumed to be drawn from a multivariate Normal distribution, which eliminates the independence of irrelevant alternatives assumption at the individual level. A hierarchical specification of our model allows us to break down a complex data structure into a set of submodels with the desired features that are naturally assembled in the original system. We estimate the model, using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique with a multivariate Dirichlet Process (DP) prior on the coefficients with nonparametrically estimated density. We employ a “latent class” sampling algorithm, which is applicable to a general class of models, including non-conjugate DP base priors. The model is applied to supermarket choices of a panel of Houston households whose shopping behavior was observed over a 24-month period in years 2004–2005. We estimate the nonparametric density of two key variables of interest: the price of a basket of goods based on scanner data, and driving distance to the supermarket based on their respective locations. Our semi-parametric approach allows us to identify a complex multi-modal preference distribution, which distinguishes between inframarginal consumers and consumers who strongly value either lower prices or shopping convenience.     

A spatial analysis of inward FDI and urban–rural wage inequality in China

This article investigates the spatial effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on urban–rural wage inequality, both in the short and long run, by employing the Spatial Durbin Model. In particular, we carefully consider the heterogeneity of inward FDI with respect to its entry mode (ownership type) and sectoral distribution. Based on a panel dataset covering 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2016, our results show that inward FDI does not increase urban–rural wage inequality. In particular, we do not find a significant relationship between inward FDI in the secondary and tertiary sectors, while inward FDI in the primary sector has a slightly negative effect on inequality. When we consider inward FDI by entry mode, we find that wholly foreign-owned enterprises (WFE) have a negative spatial effect on urban–rural wage inequality in the short and long run, while equity joint ventures (EJV) reduce urban–rural inequality in the long run only.     

A model of selective tendering: Does bidding competition deter opportunism by contractors?

Under contractual incompleteness, a bid-taker is obliged to depend on a self-enforcing contract where a winning bidder puts his reputation at stake. In this case the winning bidder will renege on contractual obligations if any one-shot gain from opportunism is greater than a long-term gain from maintaining his reputation. Since the long-term gain is decreasing in the number of competing bidders, excessive bidding competition may provoke the winning bidder's opportunism. We derive an optimum number of bidders which ensures the self-enforcing contract at the lowest expected procurement cost. We also show how excessive bidding competition leads to the phenomenon of cost overruns.     

The consumption–investment decision of a prospect theory household: A two-period model

This study extends the literature on portfolio choice under prospect theory preferences by introducing a two-period life cycle model, where the sufficiently loss averse household decides on optimal consumption and investment in a portfolio with one risk-free and one risky asset. The optimal solution depends primarily on whether the household’s present value of the consumption reference levels is below, equal to, or above the present value of its endowment income. Reference levels below the endowment income are associated with the self-enhancement motive. In this case, the household avoids relative losses in consumption in any present or future state of nature (good or bad). As a result the degree of loss aversion does not directly affect optimal consumption and risk taking activity. Reference levels equal to the endowment income are associated with the belonging motive. An example would be a household comparing to others that belong to the same social class. In this case the household’s optimal consumption is the reference consumption and the household will not invest in the risky asset. Finally, reference levels above the endowment income are associated with the self-improvement motive (or high aspirations). For such high reference levels, households cannot avoid experiencing a relative loss in consumption, either now or in the future. As a result, loss aversion directly affects consumption and risky investment.     

Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

A low quality–high cost–low satisfaction trap in public health care: a model and an efficiency-quality-welfare improving stochastic resolution

This paper develops an applied stochastic model of public health care and shows that the public health care sector in Turkey is plagued by a low quality–high cost–low satisfaction trap which has been persistent over time. The values in question are shown to be stochastically stable. We formulate an efficiency-quality-welfare improving stochastic policy rule, which helps the sector to reach a selected target and which stabilizes quality, cost and welfare around that target.     

A model of task demands,social structure,and leader–member exchange and their relationship to job satisfaction

In the present study, we examine task demands, leader–member exchange, and social structure in their relationship to job satisfaction. Based on the reflections of Seers and Graen in their dual attachment model, in the present study we combined task demands, leader–member exchange, and social structure in a model of antecedents of job satisfaction. The resulting model was tested using structural equation modelling. While task demands and leader–member exchange are related to their respective equivalents in job satisfaction, social structure is positively related to a latent factor job satisfaction, indicating that the social structure of a job has an impact on different facets of job satisfaction. The results are discussed with respect to sample characteristics.     

A collaborative evolutionary model: the self-organizing evolutionary process of urban–rural digital sharing system of social public resources

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Urban–rural digital sharing of social public resources (SPR) is related to the balanced allocation and efficient utilization of public...     

Accounting for wage and employment changes in the US from 1968–2000: A dynamic model of labor market equilibrium

In this article, we present a unified treatment of and explanation for the evolution of wages and employment in the US over the last 30 years. Specifically, we account for the pattern of changes in wage inequality, for the increased relative wage and employment of women, for the emergence of the college wage premium and for the shift in employment from the goods to the service-producing sector. The underlying theory we adopt is neoclassical, a two-sector competitive labor market economy in which the supply of and demand for labor of heterogeneous skill determines spot market skill rental prices. The empirical approach is structural. The model embeds many of the features that have been posited in the literature to have contributed to the changing US wage and employment structure including skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarity, changes in relative product-market prices, changes in the productivity of labor in home production and demographics such as changing cohort size and fertility.     

A necessary and sufficient condition for the positivity of the growth rate in the Neumann–Gale model of economic growth

In the paper I will discuss an extension of the classical problem of the positivity of the growth rate in the Gale–Neumann model. I will show that the exploitation of the labour is a necessary and sufficient condition for the positivity of the growth rate.     

Structural model for analysis of key performance indicators for sustainable manufacturer–supplier collaboration: A grey-decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based approach

With growing competition in the market and dire need for sustainability, it has become imperative for companies to build long-term relationship with their supply chain partners through sustainable collaboration. Among these, the supplier–manufacturer relationship is crucial for improved organizational, business and sustainable performance. Sustainable collaboration with suppliers involves crucial decision-making processes such as continuous supplier monitoring and supplier development. Hence, a critical challenge that a company faces is to identify the key performance indicators (KPIs) for assessing the performance of a supplier for sustainable collaboration. In this regard, this study focuses on identification of KPIs for an Indian home appliance company through exhaustive discussions involving multiple decision-makers. Further, a grey-based decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) model is proposed in the study for analysing the importance levels among the fifteen KPIs based on multiple stakeholder perspectives. The results of the grey structural model indicate seven KPIs as influencing KPIs and eight KPIs as influenced KPIs. The KPI ‘Information disclosure’ has been identified as the most influential KPI for the evaluation of suppliers for sustainable collaboration. The implications drawn from the result analysis model can provide meaningful insights to managers for identifying strategies towards strengthening the supplier–manufacturer relationship and achieving organizational and market competence.     

Researching Sales Forecasting Practice: Commentaries and authors’ response on “Conducting a Sales Forecasting Audit” by M.A. Moon,J.T. Mentzer & C.D. Smith

Sales forecasting is a common activity in most companies affecting operations, marketing and planning. Little is known about its practice. Mentzer and his colleagues have developed a research programme over twenty years aimed at rectifying the gap in knowledge. Most recently, in the Mentzer et al. (2002) paper they have demonstrated with supporting evidence the use of a sales forecasting audit to establish the dimensions of best practice. In this commentary on the paper, the methodology underlying their approach is examined from a number of different perspectives. The commentaries examine how convincing and complete has been the choice of audit dimensions as well as how this new research fits with evidence from other sources. Both commentators and respondents agree that the topic is important to organisational practice and more research is needed to gain a complete picture of the sales forecasting function and the systems that support it. Clarifying the audit function is particularly important since sales forecasting often has a low organisational profile until events turn sour with damaging consequences to organisational viability.