中关村未来发展的晴雨表——“中关村指数”2012在京发布

＂中关村指数＂的编制,借鉴了硅谷指数编制的方法和思路,把全球指数编制的最新技术、成果进行学习、借鉴、集成,创造出了自己的一套指标体系。     

Opportunities for Crossing the Chasm between Early Adopters and the Early Majority through New Uses of Innovative Products

Crossing the chasm between early adopters and an early majority is an important issue for innovation diffusion. This research addresses the uses of innovative products used by early adopters to solve the problem of crossing the chasm. First, a Human-Centered Computing System (HCCS) is used to extract the uses of innovative products by early adopters to create an advertising scenario, which in turn, is an opportunity for the early majority to cross the chasm. Secondly, our method is used to conduct a two-fold Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) test, i.e., before and after consumers read the advertising scenario. Lastly, clustering analysis is employed to classify the consumers and then to calculate the number of consumers in each cluster. The results of this experiment reveal that 22% of additional consumers agree with the use of innovative products by early adopters. The results also indicate that the uses of innovative products are likely to cross the chasm between early adopters and an early majority.     

我们仍缺少“第三世界视野”

缺少＂第三世界的视野＂,其实容易造成我们的心理的失衡和焦虑。     

最需要一个朴素的社会

朴素不仅是大德,也是大智。而不朴素、反朴素不仅是一种恶性行为．也是一种愚蠢勾当。“万物莫与朴素争美!”这句话是中国古代一位顶尖级卓人说的,此人就是道家的始祖老子。     

The Contents-Based Website Classification for the Internet Advertising Planning: An Empirical Application of the Natural Language Analysis

This study proposes a model for website classification using website content, and discusses applications for the Internet advertising (ad) strategies. Internet ad agencies have a vast amount of ad-spaces embedded in websites and have to choose which advertisements are feasible for place. Therefore, ad agencies have to know the properties and topics of each website to optimize advertising submission strategy. However, since website content is in natural languages, they have to convert these qualitative sentences into quantitative data if they want to classify websites using statistical models. To address this issue, this study applies statistical analysis to website information written in natural languages. We apply a dictionary of neologisms to decompose website sentences into words and create a data set of indicator matrices to classify the websites. From the data set, we estimate the topics of each website using latent Dirichlet allocation, which is fast and robust method for sparse matrices. Finally, we discuss how to apply the results obtained to optimize ad strategies.     

An Advertising Strategy Using Consumption Externality and Forgetting in the Case of Japanese Electronic Books

We construct a two-period model in which a consumer recognizes the existence of goods after advertised by firms, and total sales of the first period affect the utility of each consumer’s purchase in the second period, indicating a consumption externality. Some consumers see advertisements in the first period and remember the product, whereas some forget the product in the second period. We show that the advertising volume changes given the differences in the forgetting rate. In particular, we apply our method to the data on Japan’s electronic books obtained through a conjoint analysis survey to clarify that a better strategy is to sell a product to a small number of people at a low price or to lower the price to a certain level during the early period, and then to sell the product to a specific consumer segment at a higher price after reflecting the externality.     

霍夫曼：硅谷趋势的早期预警系统

如果创业者希望就新技术进行头脑风暴,或者咨询如何创建企业,甚至是如何筹集上亿美元资金,那么雷德·霍夫曼（Reid Hoffman）是必须要见的人。即使他不能提供帮助,他也知道其他能提供帮助的人。霍夫曼的人脉非常广泛。     

Graph-Based Entropy for Detecting Explanatory Signs of Changes in Market

Graph-based entropy, an index of the diversity of events in their distribution to parts of a co-occurrence graph, is proposed for detecting signs of structural changes in the data that are informative in explaining latent dynamics of consumers’ behavior. For obtaining graph-based entropy, connected sub-graphs are first obtained from the graph of co-occurrences of items in the data. Then, the distribution of items occurring in events in the data to these sub-graphs is reflected on the value of graph-based entropy. For the data on the position of sale, a change in this value is regarded as a sign of the appearance, the separation, the disappearance, or the uniting of consumers’ interests. These phenomena are regarded as the signs of dynamic changes in consumers’ behavior that may be the effects of external events and information. Experiments show that graph-based entropy outperforms baseline methods that can be used for change detection, in explaining substantial changes and their signs in consumers’ preference of items in supermarket stores.     

抢滩区域产业集群两化融合

＂在中国传统产业中,要提升管理水平,提高效率,信息化也是一个重要的突破口,也是大势所趋,传统行业不是缺乏信息信息化的动力,而是缺少好的信息化的方案,缺少有价值的信息化支撑。＂     

The Effectiveness of Social Media for Business Activities in Japanese Firms

A large number of firms use social media for various business activities. This paper clarifies how social media has become effective to sales in Japanese firms. To this purpose, the following are addressed: (i) whether social media is useful for company activities, (ii) what kinds of business activities are affected using social media, and (iii) how social media improves the final outcomes of sales for firms. This study uses data of business activities and social media conducted in 2014. Probit analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) are employed. Probit analysis clarifies the relationships between the effects of social media and its use in sales. The SEM model clarifies the relationships among the effects of social media use in business. In the SEM, a model is examined by taking sales caused by use of social media as an explained variable, while the explanatory variables are the first and intermediate effects of social media. The results indicate that social media is effective for business activities such as promoting sales. This study may help to promote social media in Japanese firms.