Estimating the sensitivity of state tax revenue to cyclical and wealth effects

In this study, we estimate the elasticities of alternative sources of state tax revenue relative to the economy, as measured by GSP, and to wealth, as measured by the S&P500. Next, efficient tax frontiers are estimated for each state by minimizing the standard deviation, given the current average growth rate of revenues. It is shown how states could attain the same expected growth rate of tax revenues with less volatility by modifying the composition of their existing tax structures. In most cases, corporate income taxes are found to reduce efficiency due to their high volatility without a correspondingly high growth rate.     

Estimating cigarette-tax revenue

This paper presents a cigarette-tax revenue model which predicts potential tax revenues. The model is unique in that revenues are estimated in a two-stage process which is invariant to the type of state sales/excise tax regime. The model also controls for cross-state spillover effects. The empirical model was estimated using data from Alabama and surrounding states from 1955 to 1990. The results suggest the demand for cigarettes in Alabama is relatively inelastic; spillover effects are found but are small in scale; and additional revenue potentials can be realized by changes in the tax regime.     

Fiscal impact of privatization revisited: The role of tax revenues in transition economies

In contrast to earlier literature, this paper finds empirical evidence that privatization has deteriorated fiscal balances in transition economies. The investigation focuses on the role of tax revenues in explaining the fiscal impact of privatization, as it appears that tax revenue in many transition countries remained lackluster even after the adoption of several tax reforms in the last two decades, and no formal econometric assessment has been conducted of the extent to which privatization has affected tax revenues. Using panel data for 29 Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries, the analysis finds robust signs of a strong negative impact of privatization on different tax revenue sources. The paper also provides some empirical evidence favoring the early adoption of value-added taxes that appear to have contributed to government revenue recovery.     

中国省级政府债务风险测度与分析

将财政收入分解为税收收入,土地出让收入以及其他收入。假设三类收入分别服从扩散过程,利用伊藤引理和投资组合理论,建立地方政府债务违约概率测算模型。省级政府债务违约风险的评价结果表明：税收收入和其他收入对地方政府债务违约风险的影响较大,“土地财政”的影响相对较小;偿还债务的期限越长,地方政府债务的违约风险越低;东、中、西部地区的省级地方政府债务的违约风险存在显著差别。西部地区省份的违约风险最高,东部发达地区的违约风险最低。发债试点的8个省市的违约风险普遍较低。四是如果偿还期限为5年,有29个省份的地方政府债务违约风险低于50%。     

Revenue trade-offs: Implications for state Government finance

Modifications in state level fiscal structures to address inequitable tax burdens or the issue of public sector growth have been accomplished by substituting one tax for another or by adjusting rates of existing taxes. This paper presents this fiscal adjustment process on the state level in terms of a policy in which complementary or competitive taxes are jointly determined as a tax mix in a process of revenue trade-offs.     

The incidence of congestion tolls on urban highways

The incidence of an optimal short-run congestion toll is investigated using an equilibrium model of modal choice and congestion on a highway corridor served by express bus transit. It is argued that for an externality tax the usual equi-revenue analysis of burdens is inappropriate; instead, welfare effects are computed under three alternative assumptions about redistribution of toll revenues. In almost all cases the net result is benefits for all income groups. It is concluded that congestion tolls should not be rejected on grounds of income distribution, but that an explicit package of tolls and revenue uses is probably a political prerequisite for adoption.     

Theoretical analysis and empirical measurements of the effects of the Philadelphia income tax

This study develops policy-oriented measures of optimal local taxes and their maxima which take into account the existence of macro multipliers, other taxes, and discounting. It also presents an estimate of the effects of the Philadelphia income tax on employment tax and revenues. An upper bound for the optimal tax rate is suggested. The current tax rate is found to perhaps be above both the optimal and the revenue maximizing (or monopoly) point.     

The choice of tax base by local authorities: voter preferences, special interest groups, and tax base diversification

We analyze local jurisdictions’ behaviors when selecting the type of tax levied in support of local services. Our analysis focuses on taxes that must be approved by voters. Taxes differ in their incidence; thus, even when proposed revenue amounts are held constant, voting patterns and the aggregate level of voter support differ among potential revenue sources. We use a general model of political cost minimization to derive three hypotheses about local tax authorities’ behaviors. Using Ohio school district data, we find that the expected probability of passage is a highly important determinant of tax choice. Further, there is evidence that special interest groups wield influence greater than their direct impact on voting behavior, and evidence that tax authorities attempt to diversify their tax structure.     

Migration and public policies: a further empirical analysis

This study of internal migration at the state level empirically investigates the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of “voting with one’s feet.” In addition to its adoption of more current data (net migration from July, 2000 through July, 2008) than other related studies to date, the model differs from most previous comparable studies by including a separate cost of living variable and a measure of per capita state income tax burdens. We also test the hypothesis using two alternative specifications: one linear and the other semi-log. Finally, the analysis also provides both OLS and 2SLS estimates. The advantage of this multi-faceted approach is that it permits an assessment of how sensitive the results are to specification changes and to different estimation procedures. After controlling for economic factors and a quality of life/climate variable, migrants (consumer-voters) appear to prefer lower state income tax burdens, lower state plus local property tax burdens, and higher per pupil outlays on primary and secondary public education.     

Federal deductibility and local property tax rates

Recent econometric work has suggested that federal deductibility of state and local taxes has raised the proportion of these taxes—especially property taxes—in local budgets. This paper lends additional support to these earlier findings by showing that one channel through which deductibility leads to higher local property tax revenues is by increasing the rate of local property taxation. Specifically, we find that if deductibility were eliminated, the mean property tax rate in our sample would fall by 0.00715 ($7.15 per $1000 of assessed property), or 21.1% of the mean tax rate.     

Property taxes and property values: evidence from Proposition

We examine the effect of Proposition  on revenues and housing prices in Massachusetts. Communities that were initially constrained by the law saw large increases in state aid and the use of fees. We use these initial constraints as instruments for changes in other components of revenue while treating the change in the property tax as exogenously determined by Proposition  . Our results strongly suggest that communities that were able to increase their property taxes more rapidly saw greater increases in their housing values in the period following passage of the law.     

The Role of Symmetry between the Revenue and the Expenditure Side of the Government Budget in the Debate about the Potential Negative Effects of Tax Competition

The effects of capital tax competition are reconsidered in this paper incorporating the argument that the expenditure structure of public budget should reflect its revenue structure. The paper offers a small open economy model where capital and labour tax revenues are used exclusively on the provision of public inputs. It is shown that if the revenue side of the government budget exactly matches the expenditure side that is if industrial public goods are financed by both private production factors with the weights reflecting the contributions of public inputs to the private factor productivity then public inputs are provided optimally even in the presence of tax competition.     

Neutral carbon tax and environmental targets in Brazil

We evaluate the effects of a carbon tax in the Brazilian economy using an input–output framework. First, we consider the impacts of a carbon tax of US$ 10 and US$ 50/metric ton of CO₂ equivalent. As usual, the adoption of the carbon tax generates adverse effects on GDP, wages and jobs in the short term, but reduces emissions and generates new government revenues, especially in the case of the greater tax. Second, we consider a broader tax system reform. In this reform, we replace distortionary taxes by a tax on value added. To compensate for the loss of government revenue, we assume a carbon tax with equivalent revenue. We find that the net effect is a GDP increase of 0.47%, the creation of 533 thousand jobs and reduction of 1.6 million tons of CO₂ emissions. Both scenarios exempt exports and levy imports to correct adverse effects on the country’s competitiveness.     

地方财政一般预算收入预测模型及实证分析

目前,我国地方财政收入预测模型的水平参差不齐,预测方法科学不足、预测机制不能与国际接轨。本文结合地方财政收入的构成内容以及结构特点,使用传统时间序列、多元回归以及基于学习理论的SVM方法,分别对一般预算收入以及其中的主要税种建立单项预测模型,最后引入组合预测方法将上述三种方法有效结合,在浙江省实际数据的支持下建立了较为完整的地方财政一般预算收入预测模型,预测出浙江省“十一五”期间的地方财政一般预算收入。     

Charging for public services: the case of utilities in Norwegian local governments

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of utility charges using a panel data set for a sample of Norwegian local governments. There is strong evidence of revenue substitution in the sense that local governments increase their utility charges when other sources of revenue (lump-sum grants and regulated tax revenue) become more restricted. Moreover, local political institutions are shown to be important: a high share of socialist representatives in the local council leads to high utility charges, whereas a strong political leadership is able to keep utility charges low.     

房地产税改革与土地财政困局破解——基于对地方财政影响的情景分析

地方政府过度依赖土地出让收入是当前中国公共管理面临的重要难题。改革房地产税制并触发土地制度的连锁反应是破解中国土地治理困局的基本出路。通过预测不同改革方案下典型城市住房相关土地财政收入变化,评估房地产税替代土地出让（纯）收益成为地方支柱性收入源的前景。研究发现,如果合理设计覆盖城市存量和新增住房的房地产税,可在短期内保证地方土地财政收入的相对稳定,并在远期实现房地产税替代土地出让金成为地方财政支柱的目标,增强土地财政收入的可持续性。近期政府应改变“重流转、轻保有”的状况,将房地产税培育成为地方主体税种,远期应推进城乡一体化土地市场体系、土地出让制度和土地增值税制度联动改革,使地方土地财政收入从以一次性的土地出让纯收益为主向以持续的房产保有税、土地增值税等为主转变,促进政府土地管理本位职能回归,破解土地财政与政府治理困局。     

Reducing tax receipt volatility in a developing country

This paper reports on a study that examines how tax revenue instability can be minimized by a developing country. The empirical analysis employed in the study identifies a combination of taxes that can be used to obtain both an acceptable rate of growth and the minimum variability of receipts for that rate of growth in revenues. An analysis of empirical results demonstrates how a government can have a growing, but relatively stable tax structure.     

Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

Do Casinos Cause Economic Growth?

A bstract .   Casino gambling is a popular form of entertainment and is purported to have positive effects on host economies. The industry surely affects local labor markets and tax revenues. However, there has been little evidence on the effects of casino gambling on state economic growth. This paper examines that relationship using Granger-causality analysis modified for use with panel data. Our results indicate that there is no Granger-causal relationship between real casino revenues and real per capita income at the state level. The results are based on annual data from 1991 to 2005. These findings contradict an earlier study that found that casino revenues Granger-cause economic growth, using quarterly data from 1991 to 1996. Possible explanations for the differences in short- and long-run effects are discussed.