强震、海啸的冲击力

强震、海啸及核泄漏危机的三重打击，使日本经济受到重创，并影响到世界经济的发展。     

世界经济难有新变化

自2月份以来,国际政治出现了一些重大事件:埃及、也门、利比亚等出现政局动荡甚至战事;日本发生了里氏9级的强震,并引发海啸、导致核泄漏事件,造成了更大范围的灾难。虽然世界经济的基本态势并没有因此而发生改变,但这些事件的发生必将会对世界经济发展产生影响,值得关注。     

对日本大地震全球经济影响的若干认识

大地震后日本经济V型反弹趋势可期里氏9.0级的强震,以及相伴而来的海啸和核泄漏,这场日本140年来最大的地震正严重侵蚀着日本并不太稳固的经济复苏根基,给曙光渐露的世界经济蒙     

强震之下日本经济的痉挛

里氏9级的强震、惊涛骇浪的海啸、耸人听闻的核电爆炸与核泄漏——号称“1200年一遇”的日本大震灾正在残酷而无情地吞噬着日本国民的生命和财富，同时使危机之后日本经济的复苏之路变得异常坎坷与曲折，而更加严重的问题还在于，基于灾后重建的巨量资金需求，日本政府将在增发公债之路上走得更远，原本负债累累的日本财政和主权债务可能爆发重大危机。     

日本灾后重建的辐射力

日本东北部海域发生的地震以及海啸因其所引发的核泄漏危机而持续发酵,由于其是世界第三大经济体,这必然会对全球经济产生重大的辐射作用。虽然目前福岛核电站的危机还没有得到有效控制,但我们倾向于相信事件不会最终走向导致日本经济大面积瘫痪的极端状态。核泄漏事件的进一步发展将主要影响日本灾后重建的进度。因此我们认为,短期来看,本次灾难对资本市场所引发的直接冲击和恐慌应该已近尾声。     

世界经济难有新变化

自2月份以来，国际政治出现了一些重大事件：埃及、也门、利比亚等出现政局动荡甚至战事；日本发生了里氏9级的强震，并引发海啸、导致核泄漏事件，造成了更大范围的灾难。虽然世界经济的基本态势并没有因此而发生改变，但这些事件的发生必将会对世界经济发展产生影响，值得关注。     

日元升值原因初探——基于日元供给角度的研究

2011年3月11日,日本东北部发生里氏9级强震引发海啸,并导致福岛核电站发生核泄漏事件,给日本带来巨大损失。据日本政府公布的数据显示,此次地震海啸给日本造成的损失额约为16～25万亿日元,远超过1995年日本阪神大地震的10万亿日元,是＂二战＂以来的最大灾     

股市:确定性上涨趋势难现

2011年,全球经济复苏遇到了强劲的挑战:3月份日本发生地震、海啸与核泄漏事件,年中标普调降美国主权信用评级,整个下半年欧元区主权债务危机持续发酵。后两个挑战增加了全球经济的系统性风险,使实体经济和股市都遭受了直接的冲击:欧洲主要股指均大幅下跌,其中德国DAX指数全年下跌15%;而美国在年中的急跌之后,由于下半年就业、消费以及房地产市场出     

日本大灾:影响与借鉴

日本遭遇地震、海啸乃至核泄漏危机,可谓大灾大难,乃国之殇。此次危机给日本带来了巨大的损失,在全球化的今天,作为世界第三大经济体,其灾害影响远远超过日本本身,参看本栏目文章《日本东北大地震对日本经济的影响》     

日本地震对我国国际贸易融资业务的影响

3月11日,日本东北部发生里氏9.0级强震,同时引发了大规模海啸并造成福岛核电站核泄漏事故。地震发生后,全球媒体对此次灾难的整体评价基本都是"世纪大灾难"、"致命冲击"、"数百年未遇"。其对于进出口贸易、大宗商品、产业链等方面的波动和影响,是否同样是一场"灾     

Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?

We assess whether the long-run volatilities of Bitcoin, global equities, commodities, and bonds are affected by global economic policy uncertainty. Empirical results provide evidence supporting this hypothesis, except in the case of bonds. For Bitcoin investors, the results imply the ability to use information about the state of global economic uncertainty to enhance the predictions of Bitcoin volatility. We further examine whether the correlation between Bitcoin and global equities, commodities, and bonds are affected by global economic policy uncertainty. Empirical results reveal that global economic policy uncertainty has a negative significant impact on the Bitcoin-bonds correlation and a positive impact on both Bitcoin-equities and Bitcoin-commodities correlations, suggesting the possibility of Bitcoin acting as a hedge under specific economic uncertainty conditions. Interestingly, the hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin for both global equities and global bonds enhances slightly after considering the level of global economic policy uncertainty. Such a weak effect of the state of global economic uncertainty on the hedging ability of Bitcoin implies that investors cannot substantially enhance the hedging performance of Bitcoin under different economic uncertainty conditions.     

Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns

This paper evaluates whether global economic activity, measured by the maritime index and commodity index, is a distinct common factor in explaining equity returns in emerging markets. We document two important features of global equity markets that show that emerging market equities are a segregated part of the global stock market. First, our results show that increases in global economic activity are associated with higher emerging market equity returns. Second, companies in developed markets that have a significant exposure in emerging markets have incremental exposure to commodity returns. By allocating more capital to emerging market equities, an investor increases portfolio exposure to changes in global economic activity.     

Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

This paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows (PCFs) to emerging markets (EMs). Results suggest that PCFs to EMs depend mainly on economic activity at the global level and monetary policy in America and Asia, positively on the former and negatively on the latters. PCFs are procyclical with respect to global activity, but countercyclical to regional activity. In aggregate, regional variations contribute more than global variations. This implies that economic divergence in the developed world can have significant effects on EMs via PCFs.     

美元本位制的问题及其可持续性

当前的国际货币体系本质上是美元本位制。美元本位制在促进全球经济增长的同时引发了全球经济失衡、全球流动性过剩以及全球金融动荡等问题。这些问题能否得到彻底解决在很大程度上取决于美元本位制是否可持续。本文分析了美元本位制与全球经济问题之间的内在联系,认为美元本位制在短期内仍会持续,但在长期内将面临越来越严峻的挑战进而难以为继。     

2011年全球经济与市场回顾和2012年展望

2011年,受欧洲主权债务危机不断蔓延的影响,发达国家经济复苏缓慢并呈现逐步分化趋势,新兴市场国家作为全球经济复苏主引擎的作用仍然突出,但也面临着经济增长趋缓的困扰。2012年,由于欧债危机隐患未除、全球金融系统依然脆弱以及发达国家自身结构性问题远未解决,全球经济方向将面临较大不确定性。未来新兴市场经济体有望继续充当全球经济复苏的主要动力,但增速将趋于放缓。发达经济体将维持宽松的货币政策,并将迫于财政赤字压力采取财政紧缩措施,而新兴经济体预计将实施相对稳健的货币政策与较为宽松的财政政策,以应对通货膨胀和经济增速趋缓的双重压力。     

经济增长下行周期中商业银行的经营策略研究

本文指示,美国次贷危机只是导致全球经济增长下滑的导火索,本轮全球经济增长步入了周期性调整,其本质原因在于决定经济周期的三股核心力量发生了根本性的转折。面对宏观形势的变化,商业银行应认真审视各项业务面临的挑战,积极调整业务结构,采取多项应对措施,以经受经济周期性波动的考验。     

The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis in 44 selected countries. A dynamic model based on endogenous growth theory is employed for the study for the period 1990–2017. We find robust evidence that the global financial crisis has distorted the link between bond market development and economic growth: before the global financial crisis, the bond market's impact on economic growth was positive; after the global financial crisis, the evidence is mixed. The main finance–growth channel by which proceeds from the bond market are eventually allocated to the most productive investments appears to be broken.     

“十二五”时期的中国银行业改革与发展

受本轮全球经济金融危机影响,"十二五"时期世界经济金融发展格局将发生重大变革,全球银行业也将发生结构调整。本文分析了"十二五"时期中国银行业面临的经济金融环境,并对这一时期中国银行业改革发展的基本定位及具体路径进行了探讨。     

Return dispersion risk in FX and global equity markets: Does it explain currency momentum?

We investigate the potential link between momentum in currency returns and global economic risk as measured by currency return dispersion (RD). Initial tests contribute to the exchange rate puzzle by showing that a common macroeconomic risk component in currency markets is present in global equity markets. Subsequent tests indicate that the spread on zero-cost currency momentum strategies is larger and highly significant in high RD states compared to low RD states. Also, the relation between these momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Based on this evidence, we conclude that global economic risk as proxied by RD helps to explain currency momentum profits.     

The role of global economic conditions in forecasting gold market volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS approach

In this study, we examine the role of global economic conditions in the predictability of gold market volatility using alternative measures. Based on the available data frequency for the relevant series, we adopt the GARCH-MIDAS approach which allows for mixed-data frequencies. We find that global economic conditions contribute significantly to gold market volatility, albeit with mixed outcomes. While the results also lend support to the safe-haven properties of the gold market, the outcome can be influenced by the choice of measure for global economic conditions. For completeness, we extend the analyses to other precious metals (palladium, platinum, rhodium and silver) and find that the global economic conditions forecast the return volatility of the gold market better than these other precious metals. Our results are robust to multiple forecast horizons and offer useful insights on the plausible investment choices in the precious metals market.