Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth

Housing wealth constitutes most of the non-pension wealth of the elderly population. This study analyzes the potential of reverse mortgages to increase the income and liquid wealth of the elderly by identifying households with relatively high levels of housing equity. Because this article looks at the whole distribution of elderly households and considers debt as well as income, it finds a larger potential market for reverse mortgages than previous studies.
Calculations from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation and Census population estimates show that over six million homeowners in the United States could increase their effective monthly income by at least 20% by using a reverse mortgage. Of these, more than 1.3 million have no children. Furthermore, a reverse mortgage would allow over 1.4 million poor elderly persons to raise their incomes above the poverty line.     

Pricing Default Risk in Mortgages

This paper examines the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and the pricing of insurance against default on such mortgages. Both the mortgage and the insurance are treated as compound European put options. A put is the right, but not the obligation, to turn over an asset to another party for a specified payment, and being a European put indicates that this can only occur at a specified expiration date. The mortgage contract, and hence the insurance on it, fit into a European option framework because no rational borrower would ever choose to default until a payment is due. Mortgages are compound options in nature because at each payment data prior to the last one, the borrower either defaults or purchases a new option to default at the next payment date by making the scheduled payment. Since the current value of the mortgage is affected by options to default in the future, the problem is solved working backwards in time with the value of later options feeding into the earlier ones, so that the process builds on itself in a recursive fashion. Using familiar arguments from option-pricing theory, the value of any of the assets in the model is expressed as the solution to a partial differential equation, where the terms of the contract yield the appropriate terminal conditions. Standard numerical procedures are then used to produce the value of the mortgage and the insurance under various economic conditions. The simulations indicate that the prime determinants of the value of the assets considered are the volatility of the house price and the volatility of the spot interest rate. Sensitivity tests show that changing either of these parameters affects the results substantially more than any of the other parameters examined. The paper completely analyzes the default option and insurance against default on the mortgage. It is one part of a complete model of fixed-rate mortgages that would allow for both prepayment and default and treat the interaction of the two options. The general approach outlined in this paper can be used to develop such a model as well as to value any mortgage-related security. In light of the increasing variety and the complexity of such instruments in the market today, the presentation of our approach to these valuation problems is perhaps the most important contribution of the paper.     

Rate Level Indexed Mortgages: An Evaluation

In this paper, a new and superior alternative mortgage design is presented and evaluated. The mortgage design is motivated by a desire to reduce the exposure of both borrowers and lenders to risks that result from high and variable interest rates, while at the same time providing a mechanism by which changes in the real value of payments and rates of amortization can be controlled. In addition to a theoretical discussion of the merits of this design a simulation of the mortgage's performance is provided that uses market data from the period 1965 to 1983.     

Prepayment Risk in Adjustable Rate Mortgages Subject to Initial Year Discounts: Some New Evidence

This paper uses microlevel data to examine recent prepayment performance of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) employing the competing risk methodology developed by Deng, Quigley and Van Order (2000). We find support for the teaser rate and adjustment date effects implied by the theoretical model of Kau et al. (1993). In addition, we find that teased ARMs bear prepayment risk related to their discount, contrary to results reported by VanderHoff (1996) and Green and Shilling (1997). Finally, and contrary to the usual finding for fixed-rate mortgages, we find that loan age has a negative effect on prepayment risk for ARMs, consistent with the phenomenon that borrowers with high mobility and/or propensity to refinance exit the pool early.     

简述利率

利率按划分的方法不同可分为：名义利率和实际利率,并对有关利率的常名词进行了解释。     

The Borrower's Choice of Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages in the Presence of Nominal and Real Shocks

This paper concerns the conditions under which borrowers select fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. The novelty of the paper lies in its capability to analyze the effect of nominal and real shocks separately. The fixed rate mortgage (FRM) versus the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) choice is determined by the expected real interest rate differential, initial wealth, income, expected real and nominal income risk exposure—measured by different parameters—the value of the house, the appreciation of the house and the influence of the variance of nominal and real shocks. Results differ according to whether or not borrowers are restricted by the loan-to-value constraint.     

Managing the Short-Term Interest Rate Exposure Inherent in Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans

This paper develops a model for determining the level of, and changes over time in, the short-term interest rate exposure contained in adjustable rate mortgage loans (ARMs). Results of the study indicate that movements in the underlying adjustment index can create both upward-movement or downward-movement interest rate risk for lenders whose ARMs carry rate adjustment limits. The model presented here is useful for designing hedging strategies for ARM loans, and for analyzing the impact of new originations on the interest rate exposure of the ARM portfolio.     

Valuing ARM Rate Caps: Implications of 1970–84 Interest Rate Behavior

This paper computes how coupon rates on hypothetical default-free 1- 3- and 5-year adjustable rate mortgages with various caps and teaser rates issued during the 1970–76 period would have had to be set in order for the ARMs to have earned the market rate of return over a 7 1/2-year holding period. The 1970–84 period includes both a relatively stable interest rate experience (1970–77) and a "worse case" sharply rising rate environment (1977–84). Thus the calculations include the entire gamut of margins that lenders might need to charge for various caps in order to earn the market rate of return. What margins lenders should be charging at any point in time depends on the relative likelihood of future interest rate paths, e.g., the 1970–77 pattern versus the 1977–84 pattern. More formally, the appropriate charge depends on the slope of the yield curve and the perceived volatility of interest rates.     

利率市场化对中国商业银行的影响及对策

中国为顺应世界潮流,在不断进行利率市场化的改革。在利率市场化的大背景下,对中国的商业银行会带来一系列的影响。文章首先分析了中国进行利率市场化改革的必要性,然后,在中国当前改革的背景下,分析了利率市场化对商业银行带来的机遇和挑战,最后,为商业银行提出了对策。     

基准利率、社会融资规模与实体经济增长

基准利率、社会融资规模与实体经济增长的关系状况在国民经济运行中至关重要。本文基于2002~2013年季度宏观经济数据并运用VAR模型的Johansen协整检验,误差修正模型实证研究了基准利率、社会融资规模与实体经济增长的关系。结果表明,基准利率和社会融资规模都会长期正向地促进实体经济增长,无论从长期还是短期看,基准利率和社会融资规模对实体经济增长都有影响,基准利率和社会融资规模的共同变化是实体经济增长变化的格兰杰原因,基准利率和社会融资规模变化分别是实体经济增长变化的格兰杰原因。在此基础上,提出了促进实体经济增长的利率市场化及社会有效融资的建议。     

金融衍生工具与汇率风险管理

在国际外汇市场动荡加剧的背景下,汇率风险已成为人们关注的焦点。本文在介绍管理汇率风险的主要金融衍生工具的基础上,分析了我国汇率衍生工具市场的现状,并提出了发展建议。     

Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Economic Fluctuations, and Lender Portfolio Change

In this study we examine the effects of economic fluctuations on the repayment behavior of a portfolio of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Because the U.S. experience with ARMs is quite recent, we have used data on a form of ARM used in Canada, the rollover mortgage. The results of our analysis suggest that use of ARMs similar to the rollover mortgage may reduce but not eliminate interest-rate risk for lenders, as borrowers, albeit constrained, prepay above-market-rate loans. In addition, we find that the periodic payment change inherent in the rollover mortgage does not lead to higher default rates and, therefore, credit risk.     

利率市场化对中小企业融资的影响及对策

中小企业是我国经济的重要组成部分,在改善民生、促进就业方面发挥着重要的作用。但是中小企业的发展受到种种限制,尤其是在融资方面。最近,央行实施了利率市场化调控措施,全面放开了金融贷款利率管制,这一政策对处于融资困境的中小企业带来了一定的影响。本文首先分析中小企业在经济中的重要地位,然后阐述中小企业的融资现状,紧接着,分析了利率市场化对中小企业的影响,最后提出在利率市场化下中小企业应如何应对和利用好这一发展契机来为自己谋福利。     

美联储利率政策与世界原油价格牛市

本轮原油期货价格的上涨是始自2001/2002年更迭之际的全球商品期货牛市的一部分.至于原油价格上涨的原因,比较普遍的说法是:供应紧张、基金投机炒作、地缘政治和自然灾害等等.但是考虑到不同商品价格走势的一致性时,应该还存在着一个对商品投资起共同作用的因素.通过分析发现,原油价格长期上涨的背后还有一个更重要的、鲜被提及的因素就是美联储利率政策.正是美联储利率政策对热钱投机取向和美元汇率的双重影响对五年多来的原油价格形成了长期支持,而且间接地导致欧元成为判断油价高低的标准.世界经济的持续稳定发展在长时间内还要依赖原油,在影响原油价格的诸多因素中,美联储利率政策的影响确实是理论和实践中需要重视的问题.     

Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.     

利率市场化对新疆本地银行的影响——基于SWOT分析的研究

近年来我国利率市场化进程不断加快,利率市场化对我国经济稳定增长和经济结构优化调整产生了显著的积极影响,但是利率市场化会加剧各金融机构之间的竞争,对金融业的平稳产生冲击。本文通过对新疆本地银行近几年来的发展进行研究,并运用SWOT分析法发现了各地方银行在利率市场化的过程中所面临的机会和风险,寻求新疆各地方银行在应对利率市场化时的有效措施。     

部分发达国家利率期货发展路径及对我国的启示

随着中国人民银行在1996年建立全国统一的拆借市场以及尝试国债市场化的发行,我国拉开了利率市场化的序幕。利率市场化加速推进的过程中,利率风险将逐步加大,利率期货作为有效的风险管理工具,已成为世界成熟金融市场最重要的金融衍生工具。本文研究了美国、英国和日本等发达国家利率期货的发展路径,并从利率现货市场培育、利率期货合约设计、政府监管和自律监管等三方面得到发展我国利率期货的启示。     

Borrowing Interest Rate as a Function of the Debt-Equity Ratio in Capital Budgeting Models

This research extends Weingartner's basic horizon model by letting the borrowing terest rate vary from period to period as a function of the debt-equity ratio. blicly available data for two industries are used to obtain the function. Two models 2 developed: a non-convex nonlinear programming problem, which is solved by the oke and Jeeves algorithm; and an iterative linear model. It is concluded that either del can be used to represent the relationship between borrowing interest rate and Dt-equity ratio in the context of the capital budgeting problem.