Measuring the impacts of cash settlement: A stochastic volatility approach

Prior to 1986, any opening position on feeder cattle futures contract must be settled with physical delivery after the last trading day. Due to dwindling commercial interests, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) subsequently replaced the system with the cash settlement method. It was argued that cash settlement would help improve the convergence between cash and futures prices and reduce the basis variability. In this paper, we adopted stochastic volatility (SV) models to investigate this conjecture. The models allow for time-varying volatility. We found strong evidence of reduction in basis and in basis variance after cash settlement. Moreover, cash settlement induced a change in the structural relationship between cash and futures prices. The futures market has become more efficient after the change in settlement methods.     

Contract settlement specification and price discovery: Empirical evidence in Australia individual share futures market

This study applies Geweke [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76 (1982) 304] measures of information flow and dependence between Australian individual share futures (ISF) contract and its underlying stock market to investigate whether the price discovery function of futures price has been enhanced after the switch of futures contracts from cash settlement to physical delivery. It is found that the spot market leads the futures market as the futures trading volume is rather small. Further tests suggest that the switch from cash settlement to physical delivery in the ISF contracts has reinforced the information flow from the spot market to the futures market.     

Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets

Using prices from 182 cash markets from seven states and the Chicago Board of Trade futures, we investigate cointegration and price discovery for corn. Analysis based on cash–futures pairs reveals that cointegration holds for 52 cash markets and failures tend to happen farther away from futures delivery locations. Cash generally are as important as futures prices as information sources in the long run and cash to futures information flow is most likely in the short run. Contributions to price discovery also are measured quantitatively for cointegrated cases. Analysis based on state-level cash prices indicates bidirectional information flow between cash and futures prices under a bivariate model, and futures to cash information flow under the octavariate model with all cash and the futures series. Comparisons of the two models show that including local cash markets in a price relationship model highlights cointegration and the futures’ price discovery role and could benefit cash price forecasting. Finally, evidence of nonlinear causality is found.     

Cash flow vs. collateral‐based credit

We study factors affecting micro, small and medium‐sized enterprises (MSMEs) receiving loans and the effect of these loans on MSMEs performance. We study two types of loans – a new type based on cash flows and a traditional‐style loan based on collateral. We use unique surveys of MSMEs from Bulgaria, Georgia, Russia and Ukraine. We find that MSMEs receiving a cash flow or collateral loan in the past are more likely to receive the same type of loan (and larger sized) in the future and that cash flow loans may be the preferred form of credit. Both types of loans are related positively to most performance indicators, enabling the MSMEs for instance to be more profitable and expand production. The cash flow loans also appear to be particularly attractive credit delivery schemes for micro and small enterprises. Finally, the effects of the smallest loans are often negative, suggesting that the minimum loan size is an important policy issue.     

跨境贸易人民币结算失衡问题研究

跨境贸易人民币结算失衡明显,造成这一矛盾的主要原因在于以劳动密集型产品为主的出口商品贸易结构,出口企业缺乏议价能力、人民币升值预期以及人民币离岸市场广度和深度发展有限。结果是:一方面增加外汇储备资产风险暴露头寸;另一方面造成货币当局和境内进口企业福利损失。解决的方法是增强汇率制度弹性、深化人民币离岸市场和优化出口贸易结构以期完善人民币作为计价货币的市场条件。     

SETTLING LAWSUITS WITH PIRATES

A firm licenses a product to overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. Consumers may purchase the product, pirate/steal it, or forego it. Higher consumer types enjoy higher gross benefits and are caught stealing at a higher rate. The firm may commit to an out-of-court settlement policy that is “soft” on pirates, so high types purchase the product and low types steal it until caught. Settlement contracts, which include both cash payments and licenses for future product use, facilitate price discrimination. Settlement may either create social value by expanding the market or destroy value by limiting market access and possibly deterring more efficient entrants.     

Efficient delivery of subsidies to the poor: Improving the design of a cash transfer program in Ecuador

Many governments provide monetary transfers to low-income families. The mechanism through which these subsidies are distributed may contain several inefficiencies that diminish the net-value obtained by the recipients. In this paper, we build and estimate a behavioral dynamic model that allows us to evaluate the efficiency of current and alternative distribution mechanisms. The proposed model is simple and resembles the individual's decision to collect the transfer. To estimate it, we use data from a cash transfer program in Ecuador where recipients incur high transaction costs each time they collect their benefits. Despite its simplicity, our model is able to replicate the observed data remarkably well. We use it to simulate alternative payment mechanisms and show that an adequate design of the delivery of payments can substantially increase the value of cash transfer programs.     

论项目投资评价中的时间风险值效应及其选择

基于现行现金流折现的项目投资评价的有效性取决于对项目现金流量预测的正确性,而项目现金流量具有预测发生的时间越遥远,现金流量不确定性的程度越大但又趋于相对稳定的特征.从这一特征出发,本文引入时间风险值进行折现调整这种系统可循的方法来解决在投资评价时难以预计的项目现金流量未来的不确定性问题,从而使不确定性条件下的项目投资评价更具有客观性.     

企业社会责任、现金股利与投资效率

本文选择我国2008-2016年沪深两市的A股上市公司作为研究样本,首先实证检验了企业承担社会责任对企业现金股利分配的影响。研究结果表明,社会责任表现越好的企业其更倾向于派发或连续派发现金股利,并且现金股利支付率越高。接下来本文对企业发放现金股利与投资效率的关系进行了研究。研究表明,企业发放现金股利通过减少企业的自由现金流抑制代理问题,缓解了自由现金流富余的企业的过度投资,连续派现向市场传递出的积极信号为企业带来新的融资,缓解了自由现金流紧缺的企业的投资不足。最后,本文进一步研究了企业社会责任在现金股利与投资效率的相关关系中发挥了何种调节作用,研究结果显示企业通过履行社会责任增加现金股利的发放,进而可以显著提高现金股利对过度投资的抑制作用。履行社会责任的企业更倾向于连续派现,从而提高了现金股利对投资不足的缓解程度。     

企业现金流量表结构分析浅探

现金流量是企业生存和发展的命脉,现金流量状况直接反映企业这一组织有机体的健康情况,是衡量企业价值的重要指标。现金流量表的结构分析,就是在现金流量有关数据的基础上对不同项目间的比较与分析,旨在明确现金流入、流出的构成及现金余额的形成情况,分析一定时期内影响现金额增减变化的主要因素,为企业管理者抓住现金流量管理重点提供科学依据,从而实现企业现金的最佳配置和使用。     

Determinants of corporate cash holdings: evidence from the emerging market of Turkey

This study analyses the factors that might explain the level of corporate cash holdings in a broad sample of Turkish-listed nonfinancial firms over the period 1997 to 2011. The empirical results reveal that, on average, Turkish firms hold 9.1% of their total assets as cash and cash equivalents. There is a steadily increasing trend in cash holding across the years. Both the system GMM and the difference GMM regression results are consistent; almost exactly the same variables are significant and going in the same direction. The findings indicate that the previous year’s cash holding is positive and significant determinant at the current year’s cash level, suggesting that these firms have a targeted cash level. Furthermore, the results reveal that cash flow and growth opportunities have positive and significant impact on the cash level. However, the amount of capital expenditures, liquid assets used as cash substitute, the degree of tangibility of assets, financial debt ratio and leverage have negative and significant impact on the cash level. Most of these explanatory variables were in line with our theoretical background and with previous studies as well.     

业绩考核制度如何影响央企现金持有?——基于《考核办法》第三次修订的准自然实验

本文基于2010—2017年我国A股上市公司数据,以十八大后推行的业绩考核办法优化修订为准自然实验,选用双重差分模型检验2013年新的《考核办法》实施对中央企业的现金持有的影响,研究发现:与不受该制度影响的民营企业相比,新的《考核办法》显著正向提升央企的现金持有水平,且这一结果均通过平行趋势、控制组调整、变量替换、PSM-DID和安慰剂检验等稳健性检验;通过机制分析发现,业绩考核制度通过发挥抑制央企因超额持现所诱发的过度投资而提升央企现金持有;进一步地,业绩考核还促使央企权衡增持的现金资源二次配置策略,缩减超额持现的股利支付且转而将其用于创新活动,进而提升中央企业现金持有价值。上述结果意味着,业绩考核制度既可以抑制过度投资的无效耗费行为促使央企增持现金,又将增持现金用于“多创新,少股利”的长期价值创造权衡配置,优化增持现金利用效率,提高企业创新能力,进而提升企业价值,这为十八大以来有关中央企业高质发展和国资监管体制建设而进行改革的政策预期效果提供经验证据,同时为进一步全面深化国资监管、积极深入推进业绩考核制度优化修订提供理论依据和经验证据。     

Tax evasion policies and the demand for cash

This paper analyzes the relationship between tax evasion and the demand for cash by studying the effects of two measures to fight evasion: accessing taxpayers’ bank data and imposing thresholds for cash payments. We study the effects of these policies in Italy, where visibility of bank data and cash thresholds were recently increased. We show that both significantly affected cash holdings, which grew by about 1.5 percent of the GDP. Using unique high frequency data on cash operations and exploiting regional heterogeneity in tax evasion propensity, we find that accessing bank data pushes regions with higher propensity to evade taxes to convert more deposits into cash. On the contrary, higher cash thresholds do not increase cash holdings more in these regions. We rationalize the findings with a simple model of tax evasion and payment choices, where cash and deposits have different degrees of privacy.     

Do corporate governance mechanisms affect cash dividends? An empirical investigation of UK firms

The study examines whether corporate governance mechanisms and the compliance with good governance practice are related to cash dividends. In particular, the study assesses the effect of institutional ownership and board structure on the decision to pay cash dividends. A study on UK firms is interesting because firms are expected to voluntarily structure governance mechanisms based on their own needs. We find that institutional owners positively affect cash dividend payments, suggesting that UK institutions are effective in forcing firms to disgorge cash. There is limited evidence that independent directors affect the cash dividends. The results also show that firm specifics affect the cash dividends, namely, business risk, firm size, and leverage ratio. The results are consistent across several robustness checks.     

新冠肺炎疫情冲击下企业现金持有的预防价值研究

最近爆发的新冠肺炎疫情牵动着亿万民众的心,面对突如其来的疫情,企业资金面临着巨大压力。企业持有现金主要源于预防和交易动机,然而预防动机的特性决定了其在企业正常经营状态下难以直观体现,因而目前鲜有研究对企业现金持有的预防价值进行直接检验。本文以新冠肺炎疫情事件的冲击为研究切入点,通过考察不同现金持有水平的企业在面临危机冲击的市场反应,发现企业现金持有水平与事件窗口期内的累计超额收益率呈显著正相关关系,从而为现金持有的预防价值提供了更为直接的经验证据。而且,当公司受疫情冲击程度越大时,二者之间正相关关系越强。进一步发现,企业现金持有的预防价值在企业现金流压力大以及外部融资环境较差时更加凸显。本研究丰富了已有关于现金持有预防价值的相关文献,并对政府与企业应采取何种举措以应对突发事件具有一定的启示。     

Natural resource valuation with a tribal perspective: a case study of the Penobscot Nation

The unique settings of tribal lands and preferences of tribal members can complicate the effective application of standard natural resource use valuation tools within these tribal settings. We present a study which utilised referendum format contingent valuation methods to value foregone tribal use of the dioxin-contaminated Penobscot River in Maine. The Penobscot Nation’s prior experience in using referendums to evaluate cash settlement offers provides a unique setting for this application. The valuation responses pass a scope test and are consistent with a priori expectations of economic theory as well as individual attitudes and beliefs. Implicit discount rates based on the valuation of two clean-up periods are plausible. The response model indicates that cultural motives are a significant basis of foregone use values. While each tribal setting presents unique characteristics and challenges, the presented application demonstrates how carefully applied standard valuation tools, when appropriately designed to account for and incorporate tribal history, settings, and perspective, can yield defensible estimates of resource valuation.     

Choosing and using payment instruments: evidence from German microdata

Germans are still very fond of using cash. Of all direct payments transactions in 2008, cash accounted for an astounding 82 % in terms of number and for 58 % in terms of value. With a dataset that combines transaction information with survey data on payment behaviour of German consumers, we shed light on how individuals decide on their cash usage. We employ a two-stage empirical framework which jointly explains payment card ownership and the use of cash. Our results indicate that cash usage is compatible with systematic economic decision making. Consumers decide on the adoption of payment cards and then use available payment media according to transaction characteristics, the relative costs of cash and card usage, socio-demographic characteristics and their assessment of payment instruments’ characteristics. Importantly, older consumers use significantly more cash than younger consumers. We show that this difference in payment behaviour is not attributable to age as such but largely to differences in the characteristics of older and younger consumers. This suggests that the high cash intensity of older consumers cannot fully be attributed to the role of habit or to their slow adoption to new payment technologies.     

Convenient prices,cash payments and price rigidity

Recent works suggest that convenient prices that match monetary denominations exhibit above-average price rigidity and are set up by firms that have incentives to be paid in cash. The relationship between convenient prices and cash usage has however never been explicitly examined. This paper proposes a model that relates convenient prices to cash usage and exploits to test it a unique dataset in 2011 on cash payments and prices by a representative sample of French consumers. In line with the model, estimation results bring direct evidence that individuals' shares of cash payments increase with convenient prices. This finding confirms that price rigidity can be in part explained by the use of cash to pay convenient prices.     

派现行为下的控股股东利益转移问题研究

本文运用深市上市公司的数据,对我国上市公司派现与控股股东利益转移行为之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明,控股股东将现金股利作为利益转移的方式之一,控股股东控股优势越大,公司派现意愿越强,派现水平也越高;派现意愿与公司上市年限负相关,而与上年配股情况正相关;此外,债务和股权制衡能够在一定程度上制约这种利用派现政策实施的利益转移行为.     

Financial constraints and cash–cash flow sensitivity

This article explores the cash–cash flow relationship by comparing financially constrained and financially unconstrained companies. Unlike previous research, we test the sensitivity of cash to cash flow by considering unlisted firms as constrained and listed firms as unconstrained. Our empirical evidence is based on findings from Spanish firms and is consistent with the core rationale that unlisted firms face more difficulties than their listed counterparts when looking for funding from external markets. As a result, unlisted firms tend to hoard significant amounts of cash out of the generated cash flow, while listed firms do not. Our findings are robust to a number of additional empirical tests.