On the real-time predictive content of financial condition indices for growth

We provide evidence on the real-time predictive content of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI), for conditional quantiles of U.S. real GDP growth. Our work is distinct from the literature in two specific ways. First, we construct (unofficial) real-time vintages of the NFCI. This allows us to conduct out-of-sample analysis without introducing the kind of look-ahead biases that are naturally introduced when using a single current vintage. We then develop methods for conducting asymptotic inference on tests of equal tick loss between nested quantile regression models when the data are subject to revision. We conclude by evaluating the real-time predictive content of NFCI vintages for quantiles of real GDP growth. While our results largely reinforce the literature, we find gains to using real-time vintages leading up to recessions—precisely when policymakers need such a monitoring device.     

Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency

We use a stochastic frontier model with firm-specific technical inefficiency effects in a panel framework (Battese and Coelli in Empir Econ 20:325–332, 1995) to assess two popular probability of bankruptcy (PB) measures based on Merton model (Merton in J Financ 29:449–470, 1974) and discrete-time hazard model (DHM; Shumway in J Bus 74:101–124, 2001). Three important results based on our empirical studies are obtained. First, a firm with a higher PB generally has less technical efficiency. Second, for an ex-post bankrupt firm, its PB tends to increase and its technical efficiency of production tends to decrease, as the time to its bankruptcy draws near. Finally, the information content about firm’s technical inefficiency provided by PB based on DHM is significantly more than that based on Merton model. By the last result and the fact that economic-based efficiency measures are reasonable indicators of the long-term health and prospects of firms (Baek and Pagán in Q J Bus Econ 41:27–41, 2002), we conclude that PB based on DHM is a better credit risk proxy of firms.     

Term structure surprises: the predictive content of curvature,level, and slope

This paper analyzes the predictive content of the term structure components level, slope, and curvature within a dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data. Surprise changes of the three components are identified using sign restrictions, and their macroeconomic underpinnings are studied via impulse response analysis. The curvature factor is found to carry predictive information both about the future evolution of the yield curve and the macroeconomy. In particular, unexpected increases of the curvature factor precede a flattening of the yield curve and announce a significant decline of output more than 1 year ahead. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

On the modification and predictive validity of covariance structure models

The relationship between model modification and predictive validity in covariance structure models is studied. It is shown that a function of the modification index (MI) (Joreskog and Sorbom, 1986; Sorbom, 1989) is asymptotically equivalent to changes in the predictive validity of the model as measured by Akaike's (1973; 1987) information criterion (AIC). Given this equivalency, it is argued that competing models should be modified independently in substantively plausible directions. The choice among the modified competing models should be made via the AIC. However, given the unreliable nature of the modification index as a specification error search tool, it is argued that a combination of the MI and expected parameter change methodology advocated by Saris, Satorra, and Sorbom (1987) and Kaplan (1990a, 1990b) may be more useful for guiding specification error searches. Implications for modeling practice are discussed.     

锅炉安装的工艺及技术浅析

文章将结合作者的实际工作经历,以WNS8-1.25-YQ型燃油锅炉为例,从法规文件、图纸会审、报装告知、施工工序、检测项目等方面对锅炉安装的工艺及技术要求进行分析阐述和总结交流。     

Cross-entropy estimation in technical efficiency analysis

Technical efficiency analysis is a fundamental tool to measure the performance of production activity. Recently, an increasing interest in the state-contingent approach has emerged in the literature although such interest has not yet been accompanied by an increase of empirical applications. This is largely due to the fact that empirical models with state-contingent production frontiers are usually ill-posed. In this work, a discussion on the role of the generalized cross-entropy estimator within the state-contingent production framework is presented. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the example provided in this work is the first real-world empirical application on technical efficiency analysis with the state-contingent approach using the generalized cross-entropy estimator.     

Contextual content analysis

This article suggests one way to systematically code textual data for research. The approach utilizes computer content analysis to examine patterns of emphasized ideas in text as well as the social context or underlying perspective reflected in the text. A conceptual dictionary is used to organize word meanings. An extensive profile of word meanings is used to characterize and discriminate social contexts. Social contexts are analyzed in relation to four reference dimensions (traditional, practical, emotional and analytic) which are used in the social science literature. The approach is illustrated with five widely varying texts, analyzed with selected comparative data. This approach has been useful in many social science investigations to system-atically score open-ended textual information. Scores can be incorporated into quantitative analysis with other data, used as a guide to qualitative studies, and to help integrate strengths of quantitative and qualitative approaches to research.     

水电站坝后背管工程技术分析

坝后背管作为一种相对新兴的水电站发电引水管道管型,近半个世纪以来有了长足的发展,成为巨型和大型水电站工程中的主力管型。全世界利用这种管型的水电站和抽水蓄能电站的总装机容量约达40000MW,我国约占60%。     

On the distribution of estimated technical efficiency in stochastic frontier models

We consider a stochastic frontier model with error ε=v−u$\epsilon =v-u$, where v$v$ is normal and u$u$ is half normal. We derive the distribution of the usual estimate of u,E(u|ε)$u,E\left(u\right|\epsilon )$. We show that as the variance of v$v$ approaches zero, E(u|ε)−u$E\left(u\right|\epsilon )-u$ converges to zero, while as the variance of v$v$ approaches infinity, E(u|ε)$E\left(u\right|\epsilon )$ converges to E(u)$E\left(u\right)$. We graph the density of E(u|ε)$E\left(u\right|\epsilon )$ for intermediate cases. To show that E(u|ε)$E\left(u\right|\epsilon )$ is a shrinkage of u towards its mean, we derive and graph the distribution of E(u|ε)$E\left(u\right|\epsilon )$ conditional on u$u$. We also consider the distribution of estimated inefficiency in the fixed-effects panel data setting.     

超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术分析

从提高整个电网的安全稳定运行水平出发,文章着重探讨超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术。     

超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术分析

从提高整个电网的安全稳定运行水平出发,文章着重探讨超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术。     

超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术分析

从提高整个电网的安全稳定运行水平出发,文章着重探讨超高压输电线路自动重合闸技术。     

日光灯照明集中控制系统关键技术分析

文章在分析日光灯照明相关技术基础之上,提出集中供电照明系统的两种设计方案,并重点指出直流400V集中供电方案,并提出了详细的设计方案。     

Computer-assisted content analysis of newspapers

Content analysis as a methodology of data collection from text sources is very labor intensive and therefore costly. Advances in computer-assisted content analysis have greatly increased the power of the methodology. But, even in a computer environment, complex searches require extensive prior manipulation of the original text in order to assign to it a basic structure. It is this structure that allows researchers to perform complex queries in highly general ways. I argue that Semantics provides powerful templates for structuring text data (text grammars) and other conceptual tools that can be profitably used to increase the efficiency of content analysis projects (e.g. news schema and macro propositions). More generally, I argue that efficiency in content analysis projects depends upon such characteristics as (1) organization of the coding task; (2) newspaper reporting practices. The discussion of these characteristics results in several suggestions on how to increase the efficiency of the methodology.     

技术经济分析在电力工程决策阶段的应用

文章在概述了电力工程特点的基础上,阐述了技术经济在其决策阶段的应用情况,重点分析了决策流程、造价管理内容、技术经济分析原理和财务评价的基本步骤,在此基础上,总结了投资风险的内部因素、外部因素、方案制定的常见错误及其决策方案产生过程中需要遵循的基本策略,旨在为我国的电力工程建设的决策优化设计提供理论参考。