对中国贸易顺差是否虚高的认识——以中美贸易不平衡为例

从出口退税与贸易顺差的因果关系检验出发,我们可以得出出口退税可能引发非贸易资金流入的结论。从统计方法、转口贸易等角度并结合中美两国的数据进行检验,我们可以看到,中国贸易顺差确实存在虚高成分。中国贸易顺差的虚高将催生经济局部甚至全面过热,增加人民币升值压力,加剧境内金融市场流动性过剩,导致贸易争端升级。对此,应当引起我们的重视。     

影响农产品贸易保护主要因素的因子分析

运用因子分析方法研究影响农产品贸易保护的主要因素,宜通过国家竞争力因子、出口竞争力因子和进口竞争力因子三个主因子进行分析。事实证明:一国的产权形式、经济自由程度、经济发展水平和农业的地位是影响农产品贸易保护的最大因素;产权制度越完善,经济自由程度和发展水平、农业的地位越高,政府对农产品贸易实行保护就越少。     

Fixed export cost heterogeneity, trade and welfare

Recent literature on the workhorse model of intra-industry trade has explored heterogeneous cost structures at the firm level. These approaches have proven to add realism and predictive power. This paper presents a new and simple heterogeneous-firms specification. We develop a symmetric two-country intra-industry trade model where firms are of two different marginal cost types and where fixed export costs are heterogeneous across firms. This model traces many of the stylized facts of international trade. However, we find that with heterogeneous fixed export costs there exists a positive bilateral tariff that maximizes national and world welfare.     

A contribution to the empirics of press freedom and corruption

We test the relationship between aggregate press freedom and corruption performing a modified extreme bounds analysis. We also test the relation among different forms of restrictions to press freedom using previously unexplored disaggregated data. Our results support the theoretical view that restrictions to press freedom leads to higher corruption. Furthermore, we obtain that both political and economic influences on the media are strongly and robustly related to corruption, while detrimental laws and regulations influencing the media are not. In all cases the evidence indicates, although not conclusively, that the direction of causation runs from a freer press to lower corruption.     

Internet Technology and the Extensive Margin of Trade: Evidence from eBay in Emerging Economies

Online platforms such as eBay offer technologies that make it easier for firms to export. This paper dissects a new firm‐level dataset that covers sales made through eBay by sellers based in 21 emerging economies to provide a new lens through which to look at the effect of trade costs on the extensive margin of trade. Comparing eBay sellers with “offline” firm‐level data from the World Bank's Exporter Dynamics Database allows us to test whether the observed trade patterns on eBay fit with the trade‐liberalization predictions of heterogeneous‐firm models. We find that eBay firms export to more destinations, suggesting low destination‐specific fixed costs on eBay. We then show that the distribution of export destinations across eBay sellers is well approximated by a balls‐and‐bins model of frictionless trade, suggesting eBay indeed lowers fixed export costs. Finally, we compare the gravity of eBay with that of offline trade and find geographic distance, languages, and trade agreements to matter less for online trade.     

The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries

This paper uses panel data and times series/cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the balance of trade and the balance of payments for a sample of 22 developing countries that have adopted trade liberalisation policies since the mid-1970s. We find that liberalisation stimulated export growth but raised import growth by more, leading to a worsening of the balance of trade and payments. To the extent that this has constrained the growth of output and living standards, the findings have important implications for the sequencing and degree of liberalisation.     

欧债危机与中国出口贸易的动态变化——基于细分贸易方式和商品类别的经验研究

本文梳理了欧债危机对出口贸易影响的作用机制,在此基础上采用我国2008年10月至2011年12月的月度数据,从出口的目标市场、细分商品分类以及贸易方式等多个维度进行了深入的实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）外需冲击是欧债危机影响我国出1：2贸易的最主要因素,国外需求对于我国总体出口的短期弹性和长期弹性分别为2．1和3．1,说明欧债危机引起的国外需求下降对总体出口的影响存在一定的时滞效应。（2）汇率和融资成本因素在本轮欧债危机中,对我国出口贸易的影响则相对较小。（3）外需冲击对不同目标市场、不同产品类别以及不同贸易方式出口的影响程度均存在显著的差异。此外,国外需求是我国出口贸易变动的格兰杰原因。     

Skills scarcity and export intensity

We describe a model of trade with skills-based product differentiation and non-proportional trade costs that predicts a positive correlation between firms' export intensity, the price of their exports and the wages they pay to their workers. In equilibrium, firms that employ workers with comparatively scarcer skills export a larger proportion of their output, pay higher wages and charge higher prices. In line with empirical evidence, the model predicts that trade liberalization can cause the distribution of earnings to become more polarized, with patterns that reflect the heterogeneous effects of trade liberalization on firms' export performance.     

信用风险、出口信用保险和出口贸易关系的研究

文章基于厂商理论对信用风险、出口信用保险与最优出口量之间的关系进行理论分析,论证了信用风险对出口贸易的负面效应,以及政府支持的出口信用保险对外贸出口的推动效应;并通过对中国的出口规模和进口国国家信用之间的关系进行实证检验,验证了信用风险的负面贸易效应,阐明了对于信用评级下调的发达市场以及绝对信用评级较低、人均收入较低的新兴市场,中国不仅需要而且必须加强发挥出口信用保险的功能。     

贸易成本、企业出口动态与出口增长的二元边际-基于中国出口企业微观数据:2000-2005

本文基于企业异质性贸易理论框架,利用中国海关数据从企业层面将中国出口增长分解为扩展边际(出口企业数量)与集约边际(单位企业的平均出口额),描述了中国企业出口动态和二元边际结构,并考察不同贸易成本的作用机制。结果发现,2000—2005年间尽管扩展边际的波动幅度远大于集约边际,中国出口的增长仍大部分是由持续出口企业的贸易额扩大实现的;各种因素对二元边际的作用机制和程度不尽相同,经济规模、距离和贸易成本的变动主要通过扩展边际影响贸易流量。     

Product life‐cycle,knowledge capital,and comparative advantage

This paper empirically investigates the effect of product life‐cycle on trade patterns. We measure the product life‐cycle length with patent citation data at the industry level. Using bilateral trade data from 2002 to 2006, we find that countries with more knowledge capital endowment export more in industries with shorter product life‐cycles. We show that this pattern is largely driven by the risk of imitation. The pattern is reversed when imitation is limited by stronger intellectual property rights.     

International Borrowing, Specialization, and Unemployment in a Small Open Economy

The authors show that an increase in international borrowing increases specialization and unemployment in a small open economy that is subject to terms‐of‐trade risks. The economy has a production advantage in the export sector. However, the size of the export sector is limited by the available funds. To insure workers against income fluctuations arising from terms‐of‐trade risks, firms in the export sector offer workers a stable wage rate with the possibility of unemployment. An increase in international borrowing increases specialization in the export sector, which leads to higher unemployment when the terms‐of‐trade shock is bad. A state‐contingent price subsidy can reduce unemployment without inefficiently reducing specialization. The results are robust to the introduction of risk‐averse firms.     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND NEW EXPORTER DYNAMICS

This article studies the role of financial frictions as a barrier to international trade. We study new exporter dynamics to identify how these frictions affect export decisions. We introduce a borrowing constraint and working capital requirements into a standard model of international trade, with exports more working capital intensive than domestic sales. Our model can quantitatively account for new exporter dynamics in contrast to a model with sunk export entry costs. We provide additional evidence in support of our mechanism. We find that financial frictions reduce the impact of trade liberalization, suggesting that they constitute an important trade barrier.     

国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的影响——来自企业层面的微观证据

当前,以贸易保护主义为主要特征的"逆全球化"思潮涌现,国外的贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口增长构成严重的威胁.那么,这些贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口到底产生了怎样的影响?其内在机制是什么?文章采用2009?2011年GTA数据库与中国海关统计数据库的合并数据,从企业这一微观层面定量识别国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的实际影响.研究发现:(1)国外贸易保护措施的实施显著地降低了受影响企业的出口规模,贸易保护措施的数量每增加1次,受影响企业的出口将下降17%左右;贸易保护强度每增加1个单位,受影响企业的出口将下降52%左右.(2)从影响机制看,国外贸易保护措施对制造业出口的抑制效应是通过降低出口的数量和质量来实现的.(3)贸易融资对制造业出口的边际影响最大,而贸易救济措施是对制造业出口整体影响最大的贸易保护措施.(4)国外贸易保护措施对外资企业、同质产品以及中间品出口的抑制作用更明显.文章的研究结论既为理解贸易保护主义的危害提供了经验证据,也为中国在持续推动对外开放背景下如何应对贸易保护壁垒提供了决策依据.     

The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico

Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale.     

城市服务业发展、企业出口与加工贸易转型

文章基于中国经济向"服务型经济"转型及面临产业"空心化"挑战的背景,研究了城市服务业发展对企业出口行为的影响,并识别出其对加工贸易转型的作用.实证研究表明,城市服务业发展提升了企业出口概率,也促进了企业出口量的扩张,并且通过"分工效应"促进了企业的出口,通过"工资溢价效应"抑制了企业的出口.进一步研究发现:(1)持续出口企业、存在时间较长企业以及规模较大企业的出口受惠于城市服务业发展,但外资企业、资本密集型企业以及生产率水平较高企业的出口却会因城市服务业发展而受损;(2)加工贸易企业的出口受到城市服务业发展水平的抑制作用;(3)在剔除加工贸易企业后,资本密集型企业和生产率水平较高企业的出口同样会受惠于城市服务业的发展.上述结论意味着,随着"服务型经济"的临近,寻求服务业发展与加工贸易转型的联动机制及助推新兴产业发展,是应对产业"空心化"挑战的关键.     

皖江城市带支柱出口产业的现状、瓶颈与突破

近年来,皖江城市带的优势产业在出口贸易中取得了重大的进展,但是与其他省市相比,支柱出口产业在规模、结构及其对经济增长的贡献方面却呈现出低水平态势。在中部加速崛起和皖江城市带承接产业转移的背景之下,新一轮产业结构的调整必将为皖江乃至安徽的出口产业发展带来新的契机。在对皖江城市带的典型出口产业进行实证分析的基础上,指出皖江城市带出口产业结构存在外贸规模较小、出口商品结构不合理、加工贸易发展滞后等问题,并提出优化产业布局、优化出口商品结构及整合产业结构等具体对策。     

对外贸易、进出口商品结构与我国城乡收入差距

笔者利用1978年～2008年期间的数据,对我国对外贸易和进出口商品结构对城乡收入差距的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:对外贸易是影响我国城乡收入差距的重要因素;对外贸易总额、进口和出口对我国城乡收入差距的影响都表现为倒U型,符合库兹涅兹假说。目前,对外贸易总额、进口、出口与我国城乡收入差距的关系都表现为正相关,处于拐点之前;综合考虑直接影响和间接影响,出口商品结构优化缩小城乡收入差距的作用小于进口商品结构优化拉大城乡收入差距的作用,进出口商品结构优化的总效应表现为拉大城乡收入差距。因此,我国应该继续大力发展对外贸易,扩大进出口贸易规模,优化出口商品结构,以期实现对外贸易缩小城乡收入差距的新局面。     

信贷融资对异质性企业出口参与的影响* ——基于商业信贷和银行信贷角度的理论和实证分析

本文在新新贸易理论框架下，基于商业信贷和银行信贷的综合视角，系统研究了信贷融资对异质性企业出口参与的影响。本文重点围绕商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用展开分析，从企业层面为中国出口增长“奇迹”提供来自金融视角的证据。本文在异质企业出口模型中引入商业信贷和银行信贷，论证商业信贷和银行信贷通过缓解出口成本融资约束影响企业出口参与，并运用中国制造业企业和IVprobit估计方法进行实证检验。本文发现：（1）改善商业信贷和银行信贷融资状况会提高企业出口概率；（2）商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用有利于企业参与出口；（3）商业信贷对企业出口参与的作用不受企业所有制、企业规模、行业竞争性和企业出口固定成本差异的影响，银行信贷的作用则受上述差异的影响，商业信贷对银行信贷的促进作用受企业所有制和企业规模差异的影响。因此，发展信贷融资、建立商业信贷和银行信贷的互融互通机制，是加快中国出口增长的重要举措。     

Trade liberalization in a differentiated duopoly reconsidered

Constructing a model of differentiated Cournot duopoly, we consider welfare effects of trade liberalization (i.e. reductions in transport costs). We examine both multilateral trade (i.e. the firms in both countries export bilaterally) and unilateral trade, under which foreign entry is possible but the home firm cannot export. Some new results on trade gains under differentiated oligopoly are proved and their implications are discussed.