How Rigid are Nominal Wages? Evidence and Implications for Germany*

Many recent attempts to find evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity in micro data have suffered from problems such as composition bias and the effects of measurement error. In this paper, a model of proportional downward nominal wage rigidity is developed which avoids these problems by taking into account the determinants of wage changes and the measurement process that leads to observable earnings changes. We find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity in German micro data. Its real implications for individual expected wage growth, the aggregate wage level and equilibrium unemployment have marked effects for rates of inflation lower than 3 percent.     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

THE AGGREGATE DEMAND FOR LABOUR IN AUSTRALIA: A META-ANALYSIS*

In this paper, meta-analysis techniques are applied to 34 studies of the aggregate demand for Australian labour. Inverse associations between the real wage and employment and demand and unemployment are established, and positive associations between demand and employment and the real wage and unemployment are established. The associations are stronger with respect to the real wage. The results suggest that at least two-thirds of the variation in estimates across studies is artifactual and is due to specification differences. It is argued in this paper that the available studies are of limited value to policy formulation. No single empirical study can provide definitive measures of a particular parameter. This guarantees that substantial numbers of empirical studies of the more important parameters describing labor demand will have been produced. (Hamermesh, 1993, p. 61)     

Are estimates of labour demand functions mere statistical artefacts?

This paper considers the estimation of putative neoclassical aggregate labour demand functions using constant price value data. Regression results normally find that employment is negatively related to the real wage and that the constant‐output elasticity of employment with respect to the real wage is about ?0.3. This is taken as evidence that unemployment is the result of the real wage being too high, ceteris paribus. This paper shows that these estimates are purely the result of an underlying identity and cannot be interpreted as implying any causal relationship and, as such, they have no policy implications.     

Wage indexation and the unemployment-inflation trade-off

A variety of wage indexation schemes are analyzed in the context of a simple dynamic disequilibrium macroeconomic model. These indexation schemes include rigid money wages (zero indexation), rigid real wages (full indexation), and intermediate cases (partial indexation). In a situation of unemployment, aggregate demand increases produce the most desirable results under rigid money wages. In a situation of excess demand for labor, aggregate demand increases produce the least desirable effects under rigid money wages. Mixed indexation schemes, in which money or real wages are rigid downward, are also examined as are the effects of stop-go policies.     

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

The relative adjustment of wages and prices: direct tests within a multiple-equation system

In order to assess the relative rigidity of the aggregate price level and the nominal wage rate most researchers have focused on the implied behaviour of the real wage rate in response to a purely demand disturbance. The present work examines the explicit behaviour of the two variables and is therefore able to analyse the variables' short-run responses within the context of their defined long-run behaviour. While the paper reports evidence of long-run stability in the real wage rate, additional evidence is presented which supports both sticky-price and sticky-wage models. The determining factor is the choice of lag.     

Nominal Wage Flexibility and Economic Performance: Evidence and Implications Across Industrial Countries

By considering the theoretical connection between labour and product markets, the paper evaluates the economic relationship of these markets within the contractual wage rigidity New Keynesian explanation of business cycles. The empirical analysis focuses on the short‐run cyclical behaviour of real output, prices and wages for 19 industrial countries. Time‐series and cross‐sectional regressions are estimated. Cross‐sectional cyclical correlations in the labour and goods markets are also evaluated across countries. Consistent with the theoretical predictions, aggregate uncertainty is an important factor in increasing the flexibility of the nominal wage in response to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility accelerates price inflation and moderates the response of real output growth to aggregate demand shocks. Wage flexibility does not appear to be an important factor in differentiating the real and inflationary effects of energy price shocks across countries. Finally, aggregate uncertainty increases the responsiveness of output and price to productivity shocks.     

COLLECTIVE BARGAINING,AWARENESS OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS,AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

We explore the significance of general equilibrium feedback effects for wage‐bargaining. We examine a two‐sector economy and show that if agents only consider labor demand effects low real wages and low unemployment are the consequences. With an intermediate view, i.e., when partial equilibrium effects within a sector are taken into account, high real wages and unemployment result. If all general equilibrium effects are perceived simultaneously, we once again obtain a situation with low wages and unemployment. The results may explain why unemployment is high in some European countries.     

Countercyclical or procyclical real wages? A disaggregate explanation of aggregate asymmetry

The time-series analysis of disaggregated data for a sample of 28 private industries verifies the prevalence and sources of asymmetry in aggregate data. The evidence indicates that asymmetry in the cyclical behavior of the real wage is widespread across the U.S. economy. The reduction in the real wage during recessions appears pronouncedly larger compared to the increase in the real wage during expansions in many industries. Across industries, price inflation increases faster compared to nominal wage inflation in the face of higher demand variability. Price flexibility moderates the increase in the real wage and output growth during expansions. In contrast, prices appear more downwardly rigid compared to the nominal wage in the face of demand variability. Price rigidity exacerbates the reduction in the real wage and output contraction during recessions. The combined evidence supports the implications of the sticky-price explanation of business cycles.First version received: June 2003/Final version received: June 2004The author thanks an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be interpreted as those of the International Monetary Fund.     

Australia's Unemployment Problem

A number of Australian studies have provided microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives on the causes of, and solutions to, Australia's unemployment problem. This paper provides an evaluation of these studies. Several important findings can be noted. First, from the cross-sectional studies economists have gained a good understanding of the factors contributing to a high probability of unemployment. Effective use is currently being made of this information. Second, there is general consensus from the time-series studies regarding the estimates of the aggregate labour demand wage and output elasticities. In addition, it has been widely acknowledged that lower real wages and economic growth would help reduce the high rate of unemployment. Despite the information available we are making slow progress towards reducing the unemployment rate. This may be due to political reasons or because we are unsure of how to deliver the wage cuts and faster rates of economic growth presented as solutions to the unemployment problem.     

Aggregate demand, the wage gap and unemployment in LDC's

This paper begins with the Todaro framework which relates LDC urban unemployment to the existence of an urban-rural wage gap. An explanation of the wage gap is developed from aggregate demand conditions in the urban sector, providing a Keynesian theory of LDC unemployment. Various policies to alleviate LDC unemployment are considered. Aggregate demand policies are most certain of success when the response of urban output to these policies is low, a situation which has usually been held to invalidate demand policies in LDC's. Import substitution policies promote unemployment and should be reversed or even replaced by rural sector subsidization.     

Prices,Productivity and Wage Bargaining in Open Economies*

According to the standard union bargaining model, unemployment benefits should have big effects on wages, but product‐market prices and productivity should play no role in the wage bargain. We formulate an alternative strategic bargaining model, where labour and product‐market conditions together determine wages. A wage equation is derived and estimated on aggregate data for four Nordic countries. Wages are found to depend not only on unemployment and the replacement ratio, but also on productivity, international prices and exchange rates. There is evidence of considerable nominal wage rigidity. Exchange rate changes have large and persistent effects on competitiveness.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence against a “greasing effect”

The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. A rise in the inflation target would attenuate the long‐run level of unemployment and hasten economic recovery after an adverse shock. Following Daly and Hobijn (2014), we re‐examine these issues in a model that accounts for precautionary motives in wage‐setting behaviour. We confirm that DNWR generates a long‐run negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, in line with previous contributions to the literature. However, we also find that the increase in the number of people bound by DNWR following a negative demand shock rises with the inflation target, offsetting the beneficial effects a higher inflation target has on closing the unemployment gap. As an implication, contrary to previous contributions that neglected precautionary behaviour, the speed at which unemployment returns back to pre‐crisis levels during recessions is relatively unaffected by variations in the inflation target.     

A dynamic macroeconomic model with monopolistic behavior in the labor market

Is the monopolistic behavior of a wage setting labor union compatible, in the long and in the short run, with price stability and full employment? What is the effect, if any, of economic policies? The answers are strongly affected by the prevailing technology and by the union's objective function. With limited short run production possibilities, a short run trade-off may exist between full employment and maximum expected real wage revenues. In the long run, however, when expectations are fully adjusted, this trade-off disappears. Therefore, a labor union consistently pursuing maximum short run expected real wage revenues may not maximize long run effective real wage revenues. Price stability is granted in the long run, provided inflation is not induced by public policy. The only instrument a pure consuming government has to fight long unemployment is to reduce its share of aggregate demand.     

Small Firms and Unemployment in a Two-sector Model

This paper presents a two-sector model of an economy – one sector consisting of large firms with institutionally determined wage (the Formal sector) and the other sector consisting of small firms (the Informal sector). The paper examines the effects of changes in benefits, entrepreneurial zeal, and the institutionally determined wage in the Formal sector on unemployment. It concludes with brief comments on the role of aggregate demand and supply policies in reducing unemployment in this economy.     

Wage Determination In Australia*

This paper examines whether a stable expectations-augmented Phillips curve exists for Australia. High real wages in the face of continuing high unemployment over the past decade have led to suggestions that the level of unemployment has little effect on wage determination, with the bargaining process taking place between employers and those employees in ‘secure employment’. Results from aggregate data suggest that the level of unemployment is relevant to wage determination. In addition, the impact of overtime on the growth in money wages is consistent with the view that those in secure employment are influenced by labour market conditions.     

Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom

The wage led aggregate demand hypothesis is examined for the United Kingdom over the period 1971–2007. Existing studies disagree on the aggregate demand regime for the UK, and this appears to be due to differing empirical approaches. Studies relying on equation-by-equation estimation procedures tend to find support for wage led aggregate demand in the UK, while the single study using a multiple time series estimation procedure finds no support for the hypothesis. We test the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis in the UK using VAR models estimated on quarterly data employing an alternative identification strategy based on shocks to real earnings. The results provide support for the wage led aggregate demand hypothesis during the period of study. However, the expansionary effects of higher earnings seem to be limited and relatively short-lived.     

Wage Cyclicality and Composition Bias in the Norwegian Economy*

Using employer–employee register data, I estimate the real wage semi-elasticity of aggregate unemployment for the years 1997–2014 in the Norwegian private sector. An increase of 1 percentage point in aggregate unemployment is associated with an average decrease of 2 percent in (total) daily wages. Although Norway has influential labor market institutions, wages in the Norwegian private sector are quite sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations. Gender differences in wage cyclicality and compositional variation are considerable. Men have significantly more procyclical wages than women, and appear more likely to upgrade procyclically to better-paying firms.     

Labour Demand and Wage-induced Innovations: Evidence from the OECD countries

This paper shows that increasing real wages steepens or reverses the slope of the labour demand schedule because increasing wages give firms incentives to innovate and to invest in newer and more efficient vintages of capital. Using macroeconomic data for the OECD countries it is shown that the efficiency inducement of higher real wages steepens the traditional neoclassical labour demand function substantially. Taking into account the adverse demand effects of wage reductions it is doubtful that real wage reductions are a cure for the unemployment problem in the OECD countries.