Accounting for ARPU: New evidence from international panel data

Average revenue per user (ARPU) is commonly used by regulators and industry observers to compare the performance of mobile telephony markets. Under the new EU electronic communications regulatory framework, some national regulatory authorities (NRAs) have linked higher ARPU with ‘significant market power’. This paper empirically examines the determinants of ARPU in a systematic way, taking account of service quality, market environment, regulation and quantity of service. The robust results suggest that concentration may not be a reliable indicator of competition in mobile markets; there are economies of density in mobile markets; and higher GDP per capita increases ARPU.     

Urban wireless traffic evolution: The role of new devices and the effect of policy

The emergence of new wireless technologies, such as the Internet of Things, allows digitalizing new and diverse urban activities. Thus, wireless traffic grows in volume and complexity, making prediction, investment planning, and regulation increasingly difficult. This article characterizes urban wireless traffic evolution, supporting operators to drive mobile network evolution and policymakers to increase national and local competitiveness. We propose a holistic method that widens previous research scope, including new devices and the effect of policy from multiple government levels. We provide an analytical formulation that combines existing complementary methods on traffic evolution research and diverse data sources. Results for a centric area of Helsinki during 2020–2030 indicate that daily volumes increase, albeit a surprisingly large part of the traffic continues to be generated by smartphones. Machine traffic gains importance, driven by surveillance video cameras and connected cars. While camera traffic is sensitive to law enforcement policies and data regulation, car traffic is less affected by transport electrification policy. High-priority traffic remains small, even under encouraging autonomous vehicle policies. Based on peak hour results, we suggest that 5G small cells might be needed around 2025, albeit the utilization of novel radio technology and additional mid-band spectrum could delay this need until 2029. We argue that mobile network operators inevitably need to cooperate in constructing a single, shared small cell network to mitigate the high deployment costs of massively deploying small cells. We also provide guidance to local and national policymakers for IoT-enabled competitive gains via the mitigation of five bottlenecks. For example, local monopolies for mmWave connectivity should be facilitated on space-limited urban furniture or risk an eventual capacity crunch, slowing down digitalization.     

The impact of regulation on the retail prices in fixed-line telephony across the European Union

This paper estimates reduced-form models for incumbent prices in the fixed telecommunications industry using data for European Union (EU) countries from 1998 to 2002. The regulation of fixed-line telephony has a significant impact on prices for residential consumers. Liberalization of the telecommunications industry decreased retail prices by about 8.2%. The introduction of carrier pre-selection and number portability had a negative impact on price levels. The estimation results also suggest that a 1% decrease in termination charges on the incumbent network led on average to a 0.17% decrease in the cost of usage basket for residential consumers. Furthermore, in the pricing regressions for incumbent local and national calls at peak and off-peak times interconnection charges are significant only in the estimation of national peak prices. A 1% decrease in single transit interconnection charges on the incumbent network led to a 0.31% decrease in incumbent national prices at peak times, as calculated for the average prices in the EU in 2002.     

Saving two in a billion:: quantifying the trade effect of European food safety standards on African exports

A growing concern over health risks associated with food products has prompted close examination of sanitary and phytosanitary standards in industrialized countries. This paper quantifies the impact of a new harmonized aflatoxin standard set by the EU on food exports from Africa. We employ a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in differing levels of protection based on the EU standard, in contrast to those suggested by international standards. The analysis is based on trade and regulatory survey data for 15 European countries and nine African countries between 1989 and 1998. Our results suggest that the implementation of the new aflatoxin standard in the EU will have a negative impact on African exports of cereals, dried fruits and nuts to Europe. The new EU standard, which would reduce health risk by approximately 1.4 deaths per billion a year, will decrease these African exports by 64% or US$ 670 million, in contrast to regulation set through an international standard.     

The impact of license duration on tangible investments of mobile operators

Using data from the WCIS (World Cellular Information Service) and the Telecoms Market Matrix of Analysis Mason, we were able to build a database relating the level of investment per capita to license duration for 14 countries over a 10-year period. An empirical analysis of the data shows a positive correlation between the tangible investment per capita and the license duration (the average of all active licenses or the latest license). More precisely, we observe an increase of €1.5 in the average investment per capita per year for each additional year of license duration. We also find no significant negative impact of license duration on mobile market competition. The competition outcomes are measured using the Lerner index at the operator level. Some robustness checks are performed at the country level by using the HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman index) and the number of active mobile operators as measures of the level of competition, and we obtain additional results indicating once more that the competition is not negatively impacted by license duration.     

Access regulation and infrastructure investment in the mobile telecommunications industry

While mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) increase competition in the mobile telecommunications industry, granting market access to MVNOs may have unwanted consequences. In particular, infrastructure investment by incumbent mobile network operators (MNOs) may be smaller. This paper examines the effects of MVNO entry and access regulation on the investment behavior of MNOs. It uses firm-level data for 58 MNOs in 21 OECD countries during 2000–2008. The results suggest that mandated provision of access is related to lower investment intensity of MNOs, while voluntary access provision has no effect. Although reduced investment incentives do not necessarily correspond to under-investment, this underscores the need for those countries where MVNOs are provided access to address the issue of investment incentives.     

Customer retention,loyalty, and satisfaction in the German mobile cellular telecommunications market

Customer retention (CR), loyalty (CL), and satisfaction (CS) are important (intermediate) goals for telecommunication network operators on their way to superior economic success in the liberalised German market. Therefore, drawing on a sample of 684 residential customers of digital cellular network operators in Germany this study tests hypotheses suggesting that CR, CL, and CS should be treated as differential constructs which are causally inter-linked. LISREL analyses support a two-staged model in which overall CS has a significant impact on CL which in turn influences a customer's intention to terminate/extend the contractual relationship with his mobile cellular network operator (=CR). Mobile service price and personal service benefit perceptions as well as (lack of) number portability between various cellular operators were identified as supply-related variables with the strongest effects on CR. Mobile network operators’ perceived customer care performance had no significant impact on CR. The findings suggest that an important lever for regulators to promote competition in cellular markets is the enforcement of efficient number portability procedures between mobile network operators.     

Tariff-mediated network effects versus strategic discounting: Evidence from German mobile telecommunications

Mobile telecommunication operators routinely charge subscribers lower prices for calls on their own network than for calls to other networks (on-net discounts). Studies on tariff-mediated network effects suggest this is due to large operators using on-net discounts to damage smaller rivals. Alternatively, research on strategic discounting suggests that small operators use on-net discounts to advertise with low on-net prices. We test the relative strength of these effects using data on tariff setting in German mobile telecommunications between 2001 and 2009. We find that large operators are more likely to offer tariffs with on-net discounts but there is no consistently significant difference in the magnitude of discounts. Our results suggest that tariff-mediated network effects are the main cause of on-net discounts.     

TP case study: fixed–mobile interconnection in India

The Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) attempted, in late 1999, to introduce the calling party pays (CPP) regime for mobile cellular services, with a corresponding revenue-sharing arrangement between fixed and mobile operators. According to the revenue-sharing proposal, mobile operators in India were to be compensated for carrying traffic to and from the fixed networks. Under their original license conditions, fixed operators (usually one of the two state-owned incumbents) were not paying mobile operators for terminating calls on their networks. However, mobile operators had to compensate the state-owned incumbent for terminating traffic. This unfavourable environment for mobile operators has meant that mobile services have not been able to reach their full potential in India. There was great disappointment within the mobile industry when the TRAI's CPP order was overturned by the Supreme Court of India in early 2000, due to lack of jurisdiction. Since then, the enabling legislation has been amended. It is hoped that the new provisions of the TRAI Act will empower the regulator to establish a level playing field for mobile network operators. It is only through the creation of a suitable framework for interconnection that the TRAI will be able to ensure the success of telecommunications reform in India.     

International roaming in the EU: Current overview,challenges, opportunities and solutions

As technology evolves and globalization continues, the need for reasonably priced roaming services has never been higher. In 2007, the European Commission (EC) introduced a first set of regulatory decisions to cap the maximal roaming fee end users have to pay for voice services. In the years after, additional price caps have been introduced for SMS and data, initially only for end users, in a later stage also for the wholesale tariff. The final step, Roaming Like at Home (RLAH), will start to take effect in June 2017; from then on end users will pay the same price (for voice, SMS and data) when roaming like in their domestic country.The effect of RLAH on the business case of each mobile operator is hard to predict, as the different national markets are extremely heterogeneous and operators face large discrepancies in terms of roaming usage and network costs due to different travelling patterns and various other reasons that cannot be harmonized (geography, economics, working force, usage history, etc.). Furthermore, competition in the telecom market will no longer be a purely national matter, as the decision to abolish roaming tariffs will fully open up cross-border competition.This paper aims at providing insights in the effect of RLAH for both the end user as well as the mobile operators. Following a literature survey approach, including an overview of the roaming regulation process from 2007 up to now, the paper discusses possible effects the RLAH initiative might trigger, going from lower wholesale prices for mobile operators to higher retail prices for end users. Additionally, as the European Commission strives for a digital single market, this paper presents a number of technical solutions (carrier portability, software-based SIMs, cross-border IMSI, Roaming like a Local, Wi-Fi offloading) that may pose a - partial or full - alternative for roaming and explains how these may impact cross-border competition both positively and negatively. The solutions are assessed against two axes: (1) generating the best possible outcome for the end customers (in all countries) and (2) ensuring the best level playing field for (virtual) mobile operators in Europe, which will of course involve trade-offs on different levels.     

Evaluating the efficiency change and productivity progress of the top global telecom operators since OTT's prevalence

The telecommunications industry has undergone significant evolvement from fixed to mobile substitution (FMS) to fixed mobile convergence (FMC) and now to over-the-top (OTT) services due to the huge rise in data usage. This paper explores efficiency variation during the period 2012–2017 for the top 41 global telecom operators in Forbes Global, 2000. Based on the data envelopment analysis (DEA) meta-frontier approach to reflect differences in production functions, the empirical results herein show that the number of operators achieving technical efficiency with respect to the meta-frontier fell from 13 firms in 2012 to 10 firms in 2013 to 8 firms in 2014 to 8 firms in 2015 and then to 7 firms in 2016, but then rose to 11 firms in 2017, displaying the impact from rise in OTT. For the mobile-only group, the average technical efficiency with respect to the meta-frontier is 0.841, which is superior to the fixed-mobile group's 0.774 and the fixed-only group's 0.714, and the group difference is significant among the three facilities-based groups. The meta-frontier estimation suggests that the fixed-mobile group has the highest meta-technology ratio (MTR) of 0.901 versus the mobile-only group's 0.886 and fixed-only group's 0.718. The empirical results offer policy implications for regulators to encourage telecom operators to have fixed-mobile operations. We further suggest that telecom operators cooperate with OTT service providers and invest in them in order to take advantage of people's more personalized digital life.     

Rollout and regulation of Fibre-To-The-Premises networks. Insights from the Spanish case

In 2017, the coverage of Fibre-to-the-Premises (FTTP) infrastructure reached 71% of households in Spain, surpassing most of the other Member States of the European Union (EU) and only outweighed by Portugal, Latvia and Lithuania. This article analyses the factors that have contributed to the deployment of these fibre networks by both the incumbent and the alternative operators that previously relied on the Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) of copper cables. An investment-friendly regulatory framework, which did not mandate access to the optical loops, and a telecommunications market comprised of dissimilar actors in the fixed and mobile segments, have been key to the deployment of FTTP networks in Spain. Additionally, based on historical coverage data, we test retrospectively, the sensitivity of geographic market segmentation to the time of the analysis and criteria for potential NGA competition. As per the analysis, the unregulated area where facility-based competition may be expected range between 23% and 61% of the premises upon the case. We discuss the implications of having mandated a Virtual Unbundled Local Access (VULA) to New Generation Access (NGA) infrastructure in 2013, examining the most likely operators' strategies. We conclude that, in the Spanish market, an earlier regulation would have reinforced inter-platform NGA competition at the expense of more limited coverage. The analysis can provide policy-makers with useful insights about the trade-off between coverage and infrastructure competition.     

Occupational Regulation in the European Union: Coverage and Wage Effects

We present the first EU‐wide study on the prevalence and labour market impact of occupational regulation in the European Union. Drawing on a new EU Survey of Regulated Occupations, we find that licensing affects about 22 per cent of workers in the European Union, although there is significant variability across member states and occupations. On average, licensing is associated with a 4 per cent higher hourly wage. Using decomposition techniques we show that rent capture accounts for one‐third of this effect and the remainder is attributed to signalling. We find considerable heterogeneity in the wage gains by occupation and level of educational attainment. Finally, occupational licensing increases wage inequality. After accounting for composition effects, licensing increases the standard deviation of wages by about 0.02 log points.     

Termination-discriminatory pricing,subscriber bandwagons,and network traffic patterns: the Taiwanese mobile phone market

This article studies network effects induced by termination-based price discrimination in the evolving Taiwan mobile phone market. An econometric model that estimates the effects attests to the formation of bandwagon behavior among network subscribers. It is shown that networks with a large subscriber base will recruit a disproportionately greater share of new users ceteris paribus compared with low-penetration operators. The strength of the subscriber bandwagon varies closely with the price differential of intra- and inter-network calls. Also, analysis of network traffic reveals that an average mobile phone user consumes considerably less inter-network than intra-network airtime; consequently, mobile phone use is largely clustered within respective networks and hindered from traversing others.     

WiFi4EU: Techno-economic analysis of a key European Commission initiative for public connectivity

This paper analyses the WiFi4EU initiative, the measure proposed by the European Commission (EC) to speed up public access to Wi-Fi throughout Europe in the coming years by subsidising the infrastructure. We set out to analyse how these measures are incorporated into the EU policies for building a Gigabit Society and the EC's regulatory tradition, and what the impact is likely to be. This innovative initiative has been drawn up in a climate of uncertainties and delays, and will have an effect upon the network deployments strategies of operators and countries. The article puts all of this into the context of the current European regulation debate and conducts a techno-economic analysis to assess the expected impact of the initiative. We have observed a slight shift towards developmental models in the EC regulatory framework and a step ahead towards multi-level governance. Furthermore, the techno-economic analysis has revealed the limited extent of Community aid and the considerable variability of the equipment deployed and the expenditure involved. We have also highlighted the questionable formulation of the allocation mechanisms, and we have included certain examples or suggestions for improvement.     

Technological and geographic heterogeneity in broadband markets: The challenge for regulation

When the telecommunications industry was liberalised in Europe and North America in the 1980s and 1990s, it inherited a legacy of monopoly providers whose footprint was national or multi-regional in its character. The regulatory framework, particularly that adopted in EU member states, reflected this pattern of relatively homogeneous deployment achieved, in part, by decades of cross-subsidised pricing and universal service goals. Perhaps because of this legacy, telecommunications regulators have often adopted the presumption that relevant markets are national in character, unless proven otherwise Although geographically-variegated regulatory remedies have been permitted (even in the face of allegedly national relevant markets) and adopted in many member states, many regulators have never done so, and overly cautious thresholds for permitting geographically based forbearance suggest a continued bias towards presuming national markets and remedies. We find that this presumption of uniformity and the tendency to aggregate geographic markets together is not supported by first principles of antitrust analysis, although there may have been strong practical reasons to apply this presumption in the past circumstances of the telecommunications and broadband industries.On the ground, however, there has arguably never been as much heterogeneity across geographies and across technological solutions that provide effective ultra-fast broadband speeds. Both technological (i.e., product market) and geographic heterogeneity are likely to increase with the advent of mobile 5G networks. With their deployment, a cautious regulatory stance towards geographic variation and a cautious regulatory stance towards inter-technology or inter-modal competition may result in regulation that could exceed what is required to ensure effective competition and could instead distort the incentives to enter of facilities-based actors. This may also result in higher-cost and inefficient investment. A more geographically varied and technologically agnostic regulatory framework may satisfy the principle of proportionate and focused regulation—with the possibility that the locus of regulation shifts from the access network to bottleneck facilities such as fibre, ducts and poles.This discussion is especially germane when one considers the highly speculative nature of forecasts and projections about future demand, and the competing claims of proponents of 5G and fibre. While there is some scepticism about the performance of mobile networks, we note that pure mobile and fixed 5G services may have synergies in deployment, and that the idea of competing with residential broadband services is a core strategy of very influential large-scale industry actors. In terms of a future research agenda, regulatory decisions could benefit from much more research into the relationship between domestic and global bandwidth constraints and their influence on development of software and application, as well as much more quantitative research by academics on the drivers of bandwidth demand. The risks associated with promoting investment that results in large-scale wasted resources should also be central to the regulatory agenda.     

The Impact of European Integration and German Unification on Industrial Relations in Germany

Can the present turmoil in German industrial relations be attributed to the effects of the Single Market, or to unification, or to other factors? European regulation or legislation may intervene in the German industrial relations system, may remove responsibilities from national actors, or may, by deregulation, induce stronger interdependence between national regimes. Various instances are considered to evaluate the actual and potential EU impact on German industrial relations. The evidence suggests that fears of ‘social dumping’ in the richer member-states are largely unfounded, and that the effects of unification and the recession on German industrial relations are currently more significant than the impact of European integration.     

That pesky last mile: Call termination strategies for mobile satellite systems

This article will examine call termination strategies of several representative mobile satellite service (MSS) operators with an eye towards identifying the strengths and weaknesses of their terrestrial call routing strategies. MSS traffic must easily flow into and out from public switched telephone networks even if it triggers an accounting rate settlement. To provide a flat, per minute rate of $3.00 or less per minute, MSS operators must recognize the strategic importance of where they install gateways, and the potentially adverse financial impact of the current accounting rate regime.     

When good intentions are not enough: Sequential entry and competition in the Turkish mobile industry

A decade into the liberalization of the Turkish mobile industry, the sector remains one of the most concentrated in Europe. This paper analyzes the links between the regulatory environment and competitive outcomes in the Turkish context. The paper argues that 7 years of duopoly incumbency resulted in a significant first-mover advantage. It then focuses on the role of the regulatory tools that could potentially restrain the incumbent operators’ first-mover advantage and stimulate competition: national roaming, interconnection regulation, and number portability.     

Romania’s accession to the EU: Short-term welfare effects on food consumers

This paper focuses on estimation of the welfare effects on different Romanian households of assumed food price changes as a result of EU accession. Using the Slutsky compensating variation approach, results suggest that these changes affect welfare differently for various categories of households. Although on average the welfare loss is 2.6%, a higher impact is estimated for low-income groups. However, the relatively high share of home-produced consumption of food diminishes these impacts, in particular for rural households, and somewhat smaller monetary amounts would be required if compensation is paid.