The US current account,sustainability, and the international monetary system

In this paper, we examine the sources of the US current account imbalances and discuss the role of the international monetary system in enabling the US in carrying such external deficits. There is evidence that the stochastic properties of the US current account are not compatible with the intertemporal national budget constraint. We argue that this is likely to be related to the dominant role of the U.S. dollar as an international reserve asset, which allows the US to meet international demand for safe assets and allows borrowing at very low interest rates. Results from a structural VAR model indicate that temporary shocks dominate the current account in the short run, whereas domestic permanent supply shocks and preference shocks contribute significantly to US current account movements in the long run. To the extent that temporary shocks stem from aggregate demand, stabilizing aggregate demand is important in achieving long-term sustainability in the current account. Finally, the paper discusses the role of the international financial system and the international role of the U.S. dollar in contributing to US external imbalances.     

A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our results suggest that the dynamics between the current account and budget account variables are affected by macroeconomic activity: twin deficits are only the case in the upper regime, when the economy operates above its potential level. When the economy is in the lower regime, budget and trade deficits show divergent movements. The results are consistent with Kim and Roubini (2008), indicating that the divergence of fiscal balance and current account might be explained by the cyclical fluctuations of output.     

Federal budget deficits and long-term interest rates in USA

We investigate whether the emergence of high inflation rates after 1965 and large budget deficits after 1980s caused the financial market agents to become more sensitive to the outlooks for inflation and budget deficits. Our approach is parametric and our models fully account for possible presence of ARCH effects in the data.Our results show a statistically significant positive link between the budget deficits and the slope of the yield curve which is more pronounced in the later sub-sample period. These results are in line with Reinhard and Sack [Reinhard, V., & Sack, B. (2000). The economic consequences of disappearing government debt. Brooking Papers of Economic Activity, 163–209] but in sharp contrast with Evans [Evans, P. (1985). Do large deficits produce high interest rates? American Economic Review, 7, 68–87] and Evans [Evans, P. (1987). Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, 281–300].     

Budget deficits and real interest rates: a regime-switching reflection on Ricardian Equivalence

This paper investigates the relevance of the Ricardian Equivalence theorem for the relationship between the budget deficit and real interest rate. In contrast to the existing literature, we focus on regime-change over a long study period and consider nonlinearities. Using a Markov regime-switching model applied to two centuries of annual data, we find evidence that the US economy switches between a Ricardian Equivalence regime, characterized by an insignificant relationship between the adjusted primary budget deficit and real long-term interest rate, and a regime characterized by the traditional view of a positive relationship. We also find evidence that the transition probabilities between regimes are time-varying insofar as a weaker level of economic activity, a lower real interest rate differential between the US and abroad, or higher national debts, is associated with a weaker relationship between budget deficits and interest rates.     

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union

We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) with right-wing governments, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is mitigated; if the government is on the left, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is amplified; iii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iv) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.     

SURPLUSES AND DEFICITS

The US economy has twin deficits: internal (the budget deficit) and external (the current account). In sharp contrast, the UK combines a PSBR surplus with a rising current account deficit. Japan and West Germany both enjoy large current surpluses, though in Japan the public sector deficit is narrowing whereas in Germany it is rising. Remarkably, as Figure 1 shows, the present position on the public sector and overseas balances in each of the three major OECD economies and the UK is quite different. Japan is the mirror image of the US: the budget and overseas balances have been moving in the direction of surplus - private sector savings have been more stable. For the UK and West Germany (though again as images of one another) it is movements in private sector savings which have driven the current account. How has this come about?     

Real convergence,financial markets,and the current account – Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Global financial integration has been associated with divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in emerging markets. While countries in emerging Asia have been running sizeable current account surpluses, countries in emerging Europe have been facing large current account deficits. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining this divergence in the catching-up process in Europe and Asia. We assume that the two regions constitute distinct convergence clubs, with the euro area and the United States respectively at their core. In line with the theoretical literature, we find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. Moreover, the degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs – as opposed to the state of financial integration in the global economy – and the extent of reserve accumulation are significant factors in explaining the divergent patterns of real convergence and the current account in the regions under review.     

USA

The Federal Reserve, having failed in its attempts to persuade either the Japanese or West German governments to adopt a more expansionary stance, has persisted in its policy of monetary relaxation as a means of boosting domestic: demand and, by way of a lower dollar, improving US competitiveness. In spite of a monetary overshoot, interest rates have been cut repeatedly this year and the current level of the discount rate is the lowest in nearly a decade. The tightening of fiscal policy, which Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker insisted was a pre-requisite of monetary easing, remains elusive. As the "automaticity" element of Gramm-Rudman has been declared unconstitutional, the onus for cutting the budget deficit is once more back on Congress. And while little progress is made on reducing domestic absorption, the trade and current account deficits continue to set new records.     

我国事业单位财务管理存在的问题及集中管理对策探研

一直以来,我国事业单位的财务管理模式都是采用分散管理的模式。但是我国实施市场经济的今天这种财务管理模式已经显得有点落伍。文中主要针对我国事业单位财务管理存在的问题展开论述,并根据存在的问题提出相应的集中管理对策。希望能进一步提高我国事业单位的财务管理效率。     

Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case

Different severe financial crises episodes occurred in the Turkish economy in the last two decades. These crises led to severe economic and social consequences for Turkey in terms of increasing interest rates, large reserves losses, considerable currency depreciations, high output losses and high unemployment rates. This paper aims to illustrate the essential determinants of these crises by developing a multivariate logit model which estimates the predictive ability of sixteen economic and financial indicators in a sample that covers the period from January 1990 to December 2008. The empirical findings show that the Turkish crises are mainly due to excessive fiscal deficits, high money supply growths, sharp rises in short-term external debt, growing riskiness of the banking system (in particular currency and liquidity mismatches), and external adverse shocks.     

Do common currencies facilitate the net flow of capital among countries?

Earlier studies have hypothesized that membership in a common currency arrangement (either a currency union or a currency board) is associated with larger current account imbalances (either deficits or surpluses) for participating countries. This paper examines a panel of 128 countries over the period 1976–2005, and finds that the current account balances of common currency participants are more highly correlated with fundamental factors (such as net foreign assets, incomes, growth rates, fiscal policy, demographics, resource endowments) than the current accounts of non-participants. Furthermore, this greater sensitivity to fundamentals leads to larger current account imbalances. Participation in a common currency is typically associated with a 1.6 percent increase in a country's current account imbalance. Larger current account imbalances under common currency arrangements could be a sign of increased financial integration. Alternatively, they could reflect the difficulties of current account adjustment under fixed exchange rates.     

Fiscal deficits and current account deficits

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50% of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75% for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100% for a small open economy.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF FISCAL DEFICITS: A SURVEY

Abstract This paper surveys recent literature, both theoretical and empirical, regarding political explanations for fiscal deficits. Political economy suggests conflicts of interest may lie behind the emergence of deficits: (1) Opportunistic politicians generate deficits to win elections, even in conflict with general welfare; (2) Conflicts of interests between politicians’ partisan preferences create incentives for (at least some) incumbents to run deficits and (3) Conflicts of interest between different social groups or regions generate tensions in the allocation of government resources leading to overspending. This paper reviews these different strands of the literature. It also covers contributions that highlight the crucial role of budget institutions in determining the extent to which the political motivations to generate deficits are indeed translated into poor fiscal outcomes. Promising avenues for future research are highlighted.     

Option-based risk management of a bond portfolio under regime switching interest rates

In the present paper, we assume an economy with regime switching short rates and show how the Value at Risk of a financial position on zero-coupon bonds, hedged by buying protective put options under budget constraints, can be minimized by selecting optimal (regime-dependent) strike prices.     

大数据背景下事业单位财务预算资金管理现状与措施

近年来,我国经济飞速发展,财政改革也在不断调整深化,而随着各项改革进入深水区以及国内外发展形势的快速变化,事业单位财务预算资金管理面临着更大的挑战。大数据技术因其严密高效等特性,为事业单位财务预算资金管理提供了新的思路和方法,应用愈加广泛。论文通过对事业单位财务预算资金管理进行现状分析与研究,指出其不足之处,并结合当下大数据技术的发展和应用,提出相应优化对策,以期推进我国事业单位财务预算资金管理的可持续发展。     

Cointegration of U.S. budget and current account deficits: Twins or strangers?

In this paper the authors employ the cointegration approach to explore empirically the existence of a possible long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. budget deficits and the current account deficits. This study uses annual nominal data in levels for the postwar period 1946–1988. Both the DW and the ADF tests confirm that the two deficits are not cointegrated. It implies that the two deficits have no possibility of reverting to a long-run equilibrium relation.     

An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries

The present study investigates the causality relationship between the external (trade and current account) balance and government budget balance for five countries of the euro area's Mezzogiorno, namely Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. These countries, due to their weak economic and financial performances, have been labelled the GIIPS group. The analysis is implemented using two methodologies: the traditional Granger test and the approach developed by Toda–Yamamoto. The results reveal homogeneity in using both approaches and give support to the Ricardian theory, according to which there is no clear nexus between budget-current account balances and budget-trade balances. This implies that fiscal austerity could help the five peripheral countries to conform to the budget deficit criteria as established by the Stability and Growth Pact, but would not be effective in restraining external deficits.     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

Last year saw the most coordinated cyclical upturn in the world economy since the early I970s, with OECD output rising 4per cent, industrial production and world trade even more rapidly. The boom in demand, which followed five years of continuous expansion, has outstripped supply and prices have begun to accelerate. To tackle inflation, the G7 monetary authorities have tightened policy over the last year, reversing the short-lived drop in interest rates necessitated by the stock market crash. This tightening may have to go further, especially in Germany and Japan where the effects of a rising oil price and higher indirect taxes are being exacerbated by currency depreciation. Although the rise in interest rates came too late to stop inflation rising, it has beet pursued with sufficient vigour to prevent inflation from seriously breaching the 5 per cent level. It is on these grounds that we forecast a relatively soft lending for the world economy on output, with growth continuing at 2.5–3per cent, accompanied by a limited reduction in inflation which stays in the 4–5per cent range. Progress on current account balances is also likely to be sluggish: in the absence of a serious attack on the budget deficit, the US deficit is likely to stay in the region of $140bn a year.     

Net treasury borrowing and interest-rate changes

As noted by Arora and Dua (1993, 1995), studies investigating the relationship between budget deficits and short-term interest rates have generated inconsistent results. This study performs Granger causality tests on four short-term interest rates using changes instead of level measures. In lieu of deficit, the level of net treasury borrowing will serve as thex variable.     

知识经济时代大型企业财务管理问题与对策分析

文章综合分析了知识经济对大型企业集团财务管理发展产生的影响，针对当前企业集团财务管理面临的预算制度不健全、风险估算不足等问题，通过对企业集团财务管理模式的选择与研究，探讨适合知识经济时代下企业集团财务管理模式的对策。