Rhetoric on the economy: have European parties changed their economic messages?

This study analyses the determinants of dispersion of economic issue mentions in European party manifestos. We examined three main economic domains (governmental control of the economy, free market capitalism and support for the welfare state) as consequences of globalization forces, economic conditions, partisanship and electoral turnout. Employing aggregate-level Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) data from legislative elections in 15 European countries from 1970 to 2010, we confirm that parties hold a common view of the salience of economic control of the state as a consequence of globalization pressure and economic growth levels. Partisanship of the cabinets (regardless of the political orientation) counteracted issue salience concentration in the welfare domain. Government size favoured dispersion in the free market realm. Our results do not indicate clear homogenization of parties’ economic messages in elections over the last 40 years.     

上海市经济增长与环境污染关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨理论的实证分析

文章运用环境库兹涅茨理论和综合评价理论,建立了上海综合环境污染与经济增长的科学评价模型,发现与发达国家和一般新兴发展中国家的"倒U"型环境库兹涅茨曲线不同,上海综合环境污染模型呈"正U"型,以20世纪末为分界点,之前环境综合污染水平不断下降,之后环境污染又开始有所恶化.文章还运用Grossman影响环境因素的机理分析模型,从规模效应、结构效应和技术进步效应对21世纪后上海环境污染加剧进行了分析,发现2000年后上海在经济规模扩张的同时产业结构有重工业化的趋势,这加剧了工业废气的排放从而导致了整体环境污染的恶化.技术进步效应的实证分析再次证实了技术进步对环境质量的改变具有正负效应两重性.最后为避免上海环境污染恶化,结合上海产业结构的调整和技术进步对环境作用的正负效应提出了针对性的解决措施.     

The EKC for SO2: Does firm size matter?

The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) predicts an inverse U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and per capita income. The literature with respect to the EKC is vast but far from conclusive. This paper adds firm size to the standard EKC reduced form regression and analyses whether firm size matters once income and composition are controlled for. Results suggest that large firm countries are initially associated with higher levels of environmental damage. However, as economies develop, large firm countries find it easier to adopt more stringent environmental legislation. Once environmental damage starts to decrease, the decrease is much larger in large firm countries.     

Long-run determinants of pollution: A robustness analysis

This paper examines how robust economic, political, and demographic variables are related to water and air pollution. Employing Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) for a cross section of 47 countries, 34 variables and 3 proxies for air and water pollution over a period from 1980 to 2000 we confirm the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis and highlight the relevance of variables that are not directly related to production.     

Green Polities: Urban Environmental Performance and Government Popularity

Ascertaining whether local election results are driven by incumbents' performance while in office or mechanically reflect constituencies' ideological affiliation and macroeconomic conditions is crucial for evaluating the alleged accountability‐enhancing property of decentralization. On the basis of a unique score of urban environmental performance and the results of all elections held in the major Italian cities over a decade, we investigate the role of local (fiscal and environmental) vs. national issues in municipal elections. Although the empirical evidence points to a strong ideological attachment and a somewhat weaker “fiscal conservatism,” it reveals that media reported environmental rankings have an impact on the popularity of city governments.     

Green technical innovation, environmental expenditure, and the environmental Kuznets curve： a dynamic s model

The relationship between the emission of pollutant and economic growth has attracted a lot of attention in the environmental debate of the recent decades. Based on some theoretical and empirical research on environmental Kuznets curve （EKC）, this paper introduces the environmental technical innovation and environmental investment into Salow growth model to discuss the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission of pollutant By the dynamic simulation and parameters analysis, the results of the model indicate： （1） when ＂green＂ technical progress and environmental investment are fixed, the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission shows the linear relationship; （2） ＂green＂ technical progress can lead to the positive growth rates with a decreasing level of emission, which is compatible with an EKC; （3） the proportion of the environmental investment can lead the different growth rates and level of emission. These results can explain that developing countries are ＂too poor to be green＂.     

A cointegration analysis of seafood import demand in Caribbean countries

This article re-examines the relationship between growth in per capita income and environmental degradation using econometric techniques appropriate for smooth transition regressions with panel data. This is a more intuitive and flexible methodology than the polynomial models widely used in the literature, and it can reconcile some of the mixed results found previously. The methodology is applied to carbon dioxide emissions from nonOECD countries over the period 1971 to 1997. Although there is no evidence of environmental Kuznets curve, we find two regimes, namely a low-income regime where emissions accelerate with economic growth and a middle to high-income regime associated with a deceleration in environmental degradation.     

Exploring the existence of Kuznets curve in countries' environmental efficiency using DEA window analysis

This paper, using data envelopment (DEA) window analysis and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimators, examines the existence of a Kuznets type relationship between countries' environmental efficiency and national income. Specifically, it measures the environmental efficiency of 17 OECD countries by constructing environmental efficiency ratios for the time period 1980-2002. The analysis with the application of dynamic panel data reveals that there isn't a Kuznets type relationship between environmental efficiency and income. Allowing for dynamic effects we find that the adjustment to the target ratio is instantaneous. We also find that increased economic activity does not always ensure environmental protection and thus the path of growth is important in addition to the growth itself.     

Bayesian forecasting of electoral outcomes with new parties’ competition

We propose a new methodology for predicting electoral results that combines a fundamental model and national polls within an evidence synthesis framework. Although novel, the methodology builds upon basic statistical structures, largely modern analysis of variance type models, and it is carried out in open-source software. The methodology is motivated by the specific challenges of forecasting elections with the participation of new political parties, which is becoming increasingly common in the post-2008 European panorama. Our methodology is also particularly useful for the allocation of parliamentary seats, since the vast majority of available opinion polls predict at national level whereas seats are allocated at local level. We illustrate the advantages of our approach relative to recent competing approaches using the 2015 Spanish Congressional Election. In general, the predictions of our model outperform the alternative specifications, including hybrid models that combine fundamental and polls models. Our forecasts are, in relative terms, particularly accurate in predicting the seats obtained by each political party.     

Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions in the European Union?

This paper addresses the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emission patterns of the European Union from 1950 to 2010, and examines the validity of the Green Solow model, which simulates \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions growth by including only Solow forces and assuming emission intensity growth to be exogenous and constant. This study verifies that an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) trajectory exists for per capita \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions in the European Union, that emission intensity growth is decreasing over time, and that the decreasing intensity growth reflects variations of the dependent variable in the specifications of the Green Solow model. The critique by Stefanski (On the mechanics of the Green Solow model. OxCarre Research Paper 47, OxCarre & Laval University, Oxford, 2013) of the Green Solow model assumption of exogenous and constant intensity growth is validated. The EKC is defined as the emissions plotted against income and emission intensity is defined as the ratio of emissions to income. The EKC and emission intensity share identical definitions and similar transition trajectories over time. The transition of the EKC trajectory and decline in emission intensity growth began before worldwide attention was focused on global warming.     

Inequality and Economic Growth: A Global View Based on Measures of Pay

This paper discusses two issues in the relationship betweeninequality and economic growth: the data and the econometrics.We first review the income inequality data set of Deiningerand Squire (D&S), which, we argue, fails to provide eitheradequate or accurate coverage, whether through time or acrosscountries. We then introduce our own measures of the inequalityof manufacturing pay, based on UNIDO's Industrial Statistics.These provide indicators of pay inequality that are more stable,more reliable and in our view also more comparable across countries,than the D&S data. Turning to the fabled "Kuznets" relationship between inequalityand economic development, we diagnose several common econometricproblems in the literature, including measurement error andomitted variable bias. By taking steps to account for theseproblems, and by introducing a more complete panel data setbased on pay inequalities, we seek more reliable inferencesconcerning the relationship between inequality, national incomeand economic growth. We find evidence that generally supportsKuznets' specification for industrializing countries: pay inequalitytends to decline as per capita income increases, though withsome tendency for the relationship to curve up for the richestcountries. After 1981 two findings emerge. First, per capitaGDP growth slowed dramatically in most countries, increasinginequality along the augmented Kuznets curve. Second, thereis a global and macroeconomic effect that produces rising inequalityin our data, independent of GDP or its changes. The timing ofthis effect suggests a link to the high real interest ratesand global debt crisis of the period beginning in 1982. (JELC23, D31, J31, O11)     

Moderation of an ideological party

It is a common fear in many countries that ideological parties will come to power through elections but will implement extreme policies. Many countries cope with this problem by overriding the election results when such parties are elected. We demonstrate that the alternative approach of containing these parties within the democratic system is more effective. We show that, as the probability of state's intervention in the next elections increases, an ideological party implements a more extreme policy in equilibrium. This hurts the median voter. Our main result shows that from the median voter's perspective, the optimal intervention scheme can be implemented by committing not to intervene and adjusting election times appropriately. That is, elections are a better incentive mechanism than the threat of a coup.     

Does Ecological Footprint Impede Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.     

从开放宏观的视角看环境污染问题:一个综述

在全球化背景下,伴随着国际间的要素流动,环境问题越来越多地被赋予了全球化的内容。本文将环境与增长、环境与贸易、环境与就业、环境与人口迁移等研究文献纳入到一个开放宏观分析框架中,通过文献研究发现,国际分工使"南—北"之间存在了多纬度的"环境不平等":首先,环境与经济增长问题先后经历了三个发展阶段,即罗马俱乐部提出的"增长极限说"、环境库兹涅茨曲线假说、贸易与环境库兹涅茨曲线假说相关性的争论。随着研究的推进,环境与增长问题越来越类似于一枚硬币的两面,难以同时兼得,但是,由于国际分工模式的差异,发展中国家却为发达国家提供了"污染储藏地"。其次,虽然环境规制使企业损失了部分"棕色"就业,但是环境保护同样能够创造"绿色"就业,然而,在国际分工背景下,环境保护是否有利于发展中国家的整体就业还存在着争议。最后,环境恶化已经导致一些国家出现了"环境难民"以及随之而来的人口迁移。到2050年,全世界由气候变化引起的人口迁移很可能达到5千万至7亿。然而,穷国和富国的环境压力和迁移能力却不尽相同,从某种程度上,这也是国际分工产生的间接影响,但是,关于这一问题的研究还十分有限。     

Political decentralization and corruption: Exploring the conditional role of parties

This study investigates how national levels of corruption are influenced by the interaction of two factors in political decentralization: the presence of local elections and the organizational structure of national parties. Previous studies have focused primarily on the role of fiscal decentralization on corruption and have mostly ignored the institutions of political decentralization. Using new data in a series of expansive models across multiple countries and years, we find that corruption will be lower when local governments are more accountable to and more transparent toward their constituents. This beneficial arrangement is most likely to occur when local elections are combined with nonintegrated political parties, meaning that party institutions themselves are decentralized from national control. Such an institutional arrangement maximizes local accountability by putting the decision to nominate and elect local leaders in the hands of those best in a position to evaluate their honesty—local electors.     

Did political constraints bind during transition?Evidence from Czech elections, 1990–20021

Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we test whether the ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of economic reform influenced voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become winners or losers of transition. Using survey data we measure the degree to which regions were ‘not afraid’ or ‘afraid’ of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential ‘winners’ who should vote for pro‐reform parties and the latter as potential ‘losers’ who should support left‐wing parties. Using election results and economic indicators at the regional level, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro‐reform and communist parties which is driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. We find that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of voting patterns in 1990 and provide empirical evidence that political constraints bind during transition.     

Factors Behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve. A Decomposition of the Changes in Air Pollution

The environmental Kuznets curve theory suggeststhat economic growth in the long run may reduceenvironmental problems. In this article, we usea decomposition analysis to isolate eightdifferent factors, in order to investigate theorigins of changes in emissions to air over theperiod from 1980 to 1996. Among these factorsare economic growth, changes in the relativesize of production sectors and changes in theuse of energy. Given constant emissions perproduced unit, economic growth alone would havecontributed to a significant increase in theemissions. This potential degradation of theenvironment has been counteracted by first ofall more efficient use of energy and abatementtechnologies. In addition, the substitution ofcleaner for polluting energy types and othertechnological progressions and politicalactions have reduced the growth in emissions.Consequently, the growth in all emissions hasbeen significantly lower than economic growth,and negative for some pollutants.The results indicate that policymakers mayreduce emissions considerably through creatingincentives for lower energy use andsubstitutions of environmental friendly forenvironmental damaging energy types, inaddition to support environmental friendlyresearch or to conduct direct emission reducingactions, such as abatement requirements orbanning of environmental damaging products.This is particularly relevant to countries andsectors with relatively high energy intensitiesand low pollution abatement.     

Employment shocks and anti-EU sentiment

Euroscepticism and the rise of populist parties have often been linked to economic insecurity. This paper identifies regional employment changes as causal factors for forming attitudes towards the European Union and voting for eurosceptic parties in European Parliament elections. To do so, I combine industry-specific employment data for roughly 260 European NUTS II regions with individual-level Eurobarometer survey data for the past 20 years and regional voting results. I apply panel data and instrumental variable methods; for the latter I construct a Bartik-style instrument, which predicts employment changes on the basis of regional industry specialization and Europe-wide sector specific employment growth rates. The effect of employment changes on attitudes towards the EU is particularly strong for unemployed and low-skilled workers in regions with a high share of migrants from other European member states, which supports the narrative that ‘losers of globalization’ tend to be more skeptical towards economic and political integration.     

经济增长与环境质量可持续发展的实证分析

本文以我国工业在发展过程中产生的“三废”为研究对象,以环境库兹涅茨曲线假设为基础,通过比较新旧环境库兹涅茨模型构建了能较好反映经济增长对环境影响的计量模型,并对其环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及所涉及的和经济增长环境的关系进行了分析,得到经济增长与环境质量之间的关系,并依据此关系给出经济与环境可持续发展的政策建议。     

ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGE IN THE EU: A CROSS‐COUNTRY EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF NPM REFORM RHETORIC

Framed within the paradigm of New Public Management (NPM), structural reforms in the EU aimed at modernizing the public administrations of Member States (MSs) have long since been a priority area of the EU's economic policy. Since the 1990s, these reforms have been sharply intensified across European countries with the declared purpose of enhancing economy, efficiency and effectiveness in their national public sectors’ organizations. In line with the European Commission's recent research initiatives in search for novel quantitative data on NPM in the EU, this paper studies European parties’ NPM reform rhetoric. More specifically, it investigates the MSs’ institutional, economic and political context within which parties have declared their intention of reforming national administrative systems. Thus, it sheds light on the MSs’ domestic factors that are associated with the diffusion of the NPM values across the political discourse of EU's national parties.