Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology: A factor analysis approach

In 1996, the second German Delphi study (“Delphi '98”) was started. The Delphi '98 is a two-round Delphi expert survey being conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education, Research, Science, and Technology (BMBF). The study was published in February 1998, and is now getting into its implementation phase. Its inherent focus is on the development of science and technology in 12 thematic fields in the next 30 years. To arrive at a better understanding of the influence of personal attitudes towards general developments in natural environment and society, the respondents were asked in the first round of the Delphi survey for their personal opinion towards several megatrends concerning the natural environment, economic, sociological, and political developments. Over 2,300 answers led to a very solid database, which gives insights into the general attitudes of the German R&D experts. On some topics, there is a high consensus, whereas in others, opposite opinions coexist. These results may serve as the database for a factor analysis leading to the identification of five different expert types. This paper examines the crucial question of whether different patterns in assessing the future development in science and technology by expert types can be observed. In general, it turned out that differences in personal attitudes towards megatrends do not influence the estimation of developments in science and technology. However, differences exist in specific topics and the distribution of the five experts types among the respondents differs significantly in the 12 fields.     

Strategic prospective for the implementation of employment policies in the Azores

This article explains how a far-off autonomous region of Portugal lying 2700 km from Brussels decided to approach its future, notably labor. The government in the Azores applied strategic prospective, and two of its methods, MICMAC and MACTOR,¹ at three key moments in the implementation of employment policies. While providing background on Azorean public policy and the broader European context, the author describes three cases, which deal primarily with education, qualifications and mobility. Interestingly, the results of decisions made on the basis of the prospective exercises can already be measured. This underscores the real efficiency of the policies adopted and the importance of the European policies of mobility, notably within the scope of Eurodyssey, a program of professional mobility of the Assembly of European Regions, that is now led by the Azores.     

Competing at the frontier: The changing role of technology policy in Singapore's economic strategy

For an economy competing at the global frontier, an innovation-based growth strategy requires a well-developed technological infrastructure, a set of capabilities-focused technology policies, as well as an institutional environment that stimulates innovation and entrepreneurship. This paper examines the role played by science and technology policy in an economy's transition to an innovation-based growth strategy. We discuss the challenges governments face as they restructure economic institutions to deepen R&D capabilities and encourage technology creation. We review Singapore's experience in this regard and assess its ongoing efforts to remake itself to compete at the global frontier.     

Prospective in Brazil: The power to build the future

This paper looks at prospective in Brazil for the past 30 years. The prospective approach and methods, with their myriad tools, were adopted by Brazilian governmental bodies and companies in a process of progressive maturation of concepts and models. They brought about major changes for the country and for the companies and governmental bodies in which they were adopted. The following examples stem from the application of the prospective process, with the participation of employees and the population. We chose to highlight results applicable to practical life and visible today: 1) the opening up of the Brazilian economy (BNDES, 1984-90); 2) the anticipation of the global warming issue (ELETRONORTE, 1987-1998); 3) the preparation of a monopolistic oil and gas company to work in a competitive environment (PETROBRAS, 1989-2010); 4) the creation of a highly successful strategic state plan (Minas Gerais state, 2002-2010, and 5) the drafting of a strategic municipal plan (Belo Horizonte Municipal Government, 2009).     

Assessment of China's and India's science and technology literature — introduction, background, and approach

Science and technology (S&T) allows (1) automation to replace human labor, (2) enhanced human labor capabilities, (3) quicker and cheaper production of goods, and (4) more complex products and processes. In order to maintain competitive advantages, it is critical for any country to understand what other countries are producing in S&T, and what intrinsic S&T capabilities are being developed.India and China are the two most populous countries in the world. These two dynamic economies are advancing rapidly in S&T, and it is prudent to assess the quantity and quality of their research output as well as to examine trends in their S&T capabilities.This paper, the first of four in a Special Section on China's and India's S&T, introduces the remaining three papers. Specifically, this paper describes the motivation for the studies, the background for understanding national S&T assessments, an overview of text mining, a brief picture of the Indian and Chinese S&T establishments, and a summary of the analytical techniques used in the assessments.     

政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业R&D投入及其专利产出的影响——上海市的实证研究

本文从动态角度运用面板数据分析中的随机效应模型实证研究了上海市政府的科技激励政策对大中型工业企业自筹的R&D投入及其专利产出的影响。本文认为 ,政府的科技拨款资助和税收减免这两个政策工具对大中型工业企业增加自筹的R&D投入都具有积极效果 ,并且政府的拨款资助越稳定效果越好 ;政府拨款资助和税收减免互为补充 ,提高一个的强度也会增加另一个的效果 ,但这个效应以政府税收减免为主。不同来源的R&D支出和不同等级的人力资源对专利产出的影响是不同的 ,自筹的R&D支出对专利产出有着显著的正面作用。     

Extracting the commercialization gap between science and technology — Case study of a solar cell

In this paper, we compared structures of the citation network of scientific publications with those of patents, and discussed the differences between them. A case study was performed in a solar cell to develop a method of detecting gaps between science and technology. Scientific research has tended to be more basic, especially in terms of cell design, whereas patents have focused on more applied technology used in solar cell modules. Of the major citation clusters of scientific publications, only two, namely silicon and compound solar cells, corresponded semantically with patent clusters. Conversely, there were no patent clusters corresponding to the other two scientific research fronts, namely dye-sensitized and polymer solar cells. These research areas could be regarded as opportunities for industrial commercialization because scientific activities exist but not technological applications. Our results could offer an intellectual basis for discovering potential opportunities for industrial commercialization.     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

Beyond the lamppost: Optimal prevention and control of the Brown Tree Snake in Hawaii

We develop an integrated model for the prevention and control of an invasive species. The generality of the model allows its use for both existing and potential threats to the system of interest. The deterministic nature of arrivals in the model enables clear examination of the tradeoffs inherent when choosing between prevention and control strategies. We illuminate how optimal expenditure paths change in response to various biological and economic parameters for the case of the Brown Tree Snake in Hawaii. Results suggest that it is more advantageous to spend money finding the small population of snakes as they occur than attempting to prevent all future introductions. Like the drunk that looks for his keys only where the light is, public policy may fail to look “beyond the lamppost” for snakes that have already arrived but have not yet been detected. Actively searching for a potential population of snakes rather than waiting for an accidental discovery may save Hawaii tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in future damages, interdiction expenditures, and control costs.     

Implementing technology-forcing policies: The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments and the introduction of advanced automotive emissions controls in the United States

Technology forcing is a strategy where a regulator specifies a standard that cannot be met with existing technology, or at least not at an acceptable cost. Using the 1970 U.S. Clean Air Act for controlling automobile emissions as a baseline example, we demonstrate the importance of the regulatory implementation process if regulations are to foster technological change. The 1970 legislation required steep emissions reductions for new 1975 and 1976 automobiles, which presented automakers with major technical and economic challenges. Nevertheless, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency successfully forced the adoption of two marquee control technologies—the catalytic converter in 1975 and the three-way catalyst in 1981. We focus on three factors critical to the implementation process: agency credibility to enforce standards, competitive pressures to drive industry research and development, and uncertainty about technological development.     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

The Innovation Potential and Thematic Leadership of Austrian Industries: An Interpretation of the Technology Delphi with Regard to the Old Structures/High-performance Paradox

The Austrian Technology Delphi searched for problem-oriented fieldsof potential leadership of Austrian scientists and firms. This study classifies the Delphi results according to standard industry classifications in order to facilitate their use by industrial economists and to propose an explanation of the old structures/high performance paradox. It reveals that expertsawarded the top marks for innovativeness to low- and high-qualification as well as to mainstream and research intensive industries, not to medium qualification and to marketing and labour-intensive ones. This implies that innovation is by no means restricted to high-tech industries and that the standard industry classifications are not well suited to deal with aspects of technology policy. Old structures need not hinder high performance.     

Sharing a common resource in a sustainable development context: The case of a wood innovation system

This case study of the Aquitaine wood filière emphasizes the need to integrate a stronger consideration of natural resources in the analysis of innovation systems. The analysis focuses on eight eco-innovation projects representing the Aquitaine wood filière, and carried out under the aegis of the Industries and Maritime Pine of the Future ‘competitiveness cluster.’ We show that dependence on the wood natural resource can configure the limits, objectives and expected performance of such innovation systems. While previous approaches have considered similar innovation systems from territorial, sectoral or technological perspectives, we argue that centering the analysis on this natural resource better enables consideration of the technological and environmental tensions and risks that are likely to destabilize the system.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

The emergence of technology systems: knowledge production and distribution in the case of the Emilian plastics district

The emergence of technology systems is the result of interdependentdynamics of the generation and diffusion of complementary bitsof localised technological knowledge. Technological communicationis the crucial element assessing the collective conditions underwhich technological knowledge is accumulated and diffused. Thecase study of the emerging Emilian technological system in theplastics sector shows that the synchronic and diachronic localisedinteractions among industrial dynamics, institutional R&Defforts and technological interrelatedness are the determinantsof the systematic production, accumulation and distributionof localised technological knowledge, in turn explaining theorigin and development of the technology system itself.     

The growth of government in the United States: An economic historian's perspective

This paper first outlines the salient features of the growth of government in American history. Secondly, it offers a neoclassical explanation of that history in which increasing specialization and division of labor brought on by the scientific/technological revolution of the nineteenth century drastically altered the demand for and supply of government. Finally, it argues that institutions matter and describes the way the particular structure of governments was important in the timing and pace of its growth.     

Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update

We update [13] and [Rose and Spiegel, 2010] and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the “Great Recession” of 2008–09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income and looser credit market regulation seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.     

Contracting for tacit knowledge: the provision of technical services in technology licensing contracts

Recent research on the economic payoff from new technology has emphasized the importance of tacit knowledge or know-how. This paper shows that arm's length contract can overcome the problems in contracting for know-how by bundling complementary inputs with know-how in a technology package, and leveraging the superior enforceability of contracts over the latter. In the empirical part of this paper, the relationship between bundling and transfer of know-how is analyzed, using Indian data. The results imply that tied sales of inputs may increase the efficiency of contracts involving the transfer of know-how. A striking result, in the context of the current North-South debates on intellectual property rights, is the packaging of patents with know-how.     

The relative weight of manufacturing and services in Europe: An innovation perspective

This paper uses an innovation-based taxonomy of both manufacturing and service industries to assess the role of the process of structural change of the last 25 years on the rate of productivity growth in Europe, US and Japan. The empirical analysis exploits the shift-share methodology for a decomposition of aggregate labor productivity growth. A modified version is applied, that allows to interpret whether employment has shifted to higher or lower productivity sectors. The results are discussed in light of the role that the different industries play according to the innovation-based taxonomy.