The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

Scenario building: Uses and abuses

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.     

Strategic prospective for the implementation of employment policies in the Azores

This article explains how a far-off autonomous region of Portugal lying 2700 km from Brussels decided to approach its future, notably labor. The government in the Azores applied strategic prospective, and two of its methods, MICMAC and MACTOR,¹ at three key moments in the implementation of employment policies. While providing background on Azorean public policy and the broader European context, the author describes three cases, which deal primarily with education, qualifications and mobility. Interestingly, the results of decisions made on the basis of the prospective exercises can already be measured. This underscores the real efficiency of the policies adopted and the importance of the European policies of mobility, notably within the scope of Eurodyssey, a program of professional mobility of the Assembly of European Regions, that is now led by the Azores.     

Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases

Short term forecasting was applied to 20 emerging technologies under the “Machine and Materials” category based on the Vision 2023 foresight study previously conducted for Turkey. This scientometric approach uses the most suitable keywords linked to the technology in question and determines the number of publications and patents in those fields for a given year. Database analysis of publications and patents in the previous 11 years indicates that while the majority of the top 20 technologies identified by the experts are indeed emerging (i.e. the number of research and/or patenting in these technologies is increasing), some of them have not actually attracted too much interest in the science and technology (S&T) community. Forecasts based on S-curves indicate steady growth in some of the selected technologies. There is a high correlation between the number of scientific publications and patents in most of the technologies investigated. The method is proposed as a simple and efficient tool to link national foresight efforts to international S&T activities and to obtain quantitative information for prioritized technologies that could be used for technology management and decision making for research funding and technology investment.     

Host country's strategic policies and multinational firm's choice of entry mode

This paper examines the effects of contract enforceability and market structure on a firm's choice between licensing and foreign direct investment. Clearly, the firm's choice impacts upon social welfare in the host country. Therefore, the government of the host country is likely to set contract enforceability for inducing the multinational firm (MNF) to choose a desirable mode of entry. The paper takes into account two different cases. In the first case, the host country does not have an incumbent that can compete with the MNF, and in the second case, it has one incumbent that can compete. The paper shows that the government's choice of contract enforceability is crucially dependent upon the domestic market structure and the domestic capacity to absorb the advanced technology of the MNF.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Prospective in Brazil: The power to build the future

This paper looks at prospective in Brazil for the past 30 years. The prospective approach and methods, with their myriad tools, were adopted by Brazilian governmental bodies and companies in a process of progressive maturation of concepts and models. They brought about major changes for the country and for the companies and governmental bodies in which they were adopted. The following examples stem from the application of the prospective process, with the participation of employees and the population. We chose to highlight results applicable to practical life and visible today: 1) the opening up of the Brazilian economy (BNDES, 1984-90); 2) the anticipation of the global warming issue (ELETRONORTE, 1987-1998); 3) the preparation of a monopolistic oil and gas company to work in a competitive environment (PETROBRAS, 1989-2010); 4) the creation of a highly successful strategic state plan (Minas Gerais state, 2002-2010, and 5) the drafting of a strategic municipal plan (Belo Horizonte Municipal Government, 2009).     

Must conditional cash transfer programs be conditioned to be effective? The impact of conditioning transfers on school enrollment in Mexico

A growing body of evidence suggests that conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs can have strong, positive effects on a range of welfare indicators for poor households in developing countries. However, there is little evidence about how important each component of these programs is towards achieving these outcomes. This paper tests the importance of conditionality on one specific outcome related to human capital formation, school enrollment, using data collected during the evaluation of Mexico's PROGRESA program. We exploit the fact that some beneficiaries who received transfers did not receive the forms needed to monitor the attendance of their children at school. We use a variety of techniques, including nearest neighbor matching and household fixed effects regressions, to show that the absence of these forms reduced the likelihood that children attended school with this effect most pronounced when children are transitioning to lower secondary school. We provide substantial evidence that these findings are not driven by unobservable characteristics of households or localities.     

The trade-off between agriculture and biodiversity in marginal areas: Can crofting and bumblebee conservation be reconciled?

Crofting is a low intensity agricultural system restricted to the Highlands and Islands of northern Scotland typified by small scale mixed livestock production and rotational cropping activities. As with other low intensity farming systems across Europe, crofting is changing in response to a range of socio-economic factors. This is having a negative impact on the populations of rare bumblebees that are associated with this agricultural system. In this paper we use an ecological-economic modelling approach to examine the likely impacts of introducing two different management options for conserving bumblebees on croft land-use and income. Two linear programming models were constructed to represent the predominant crofting systems found in the Outer Hebrides, and varying constraints on bumblebee abundance were imposed to examine the trade-off between conservation and agricultural incomes. The model outputs illustrate that in some instances it is likely that both agricultural profits and bumblebee densities can be enhanced. We conclude that policy-makers should take into consideration the type of farming system when designing cost-effective agri-environment policies for low intensity farming systems, and that improvements in bee conservation are not necessarily in conflict with maintaining farm income.     

The Asian clam Corbicula fluminea in the European freshwater-dependent industry: A latent threat or a friendly enemy?

While the biofouler Corbicula fluminea (Müller, 1774) is known to cause great economic losses in North America, studies reporting the problem in Europe are much scarcer. This paper explores the industrial effects of the species in Portugal, the gateway by which the bivalve entered Europe around 30 years ago. National waterworks, major power stations, cement plants, pulp and paper mills and irrigation systems were surveyed. The industrial impacts of the pest were shown to remain relatively mild; irrigation systems are those that seem to be facing more significant economic losses due to infestation. Possible reasons for the apparent discrepancy between this result and the species dispersal in natural ecosystems are discussed, and recommendations on adequate responses to the latent threat are provided. This study may assist the implementation of integrated pest management policies in countries at risk of invasion or recently invaded, and contribute to an understanding of the species’ progression in industrial environments.     

The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?

One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North-South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas.     

Reduction of acidification from electricity — Generating industries in Taiwan by Life Cycle Assessment and Monte Carlo optimization

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a rather common tool for reducing environmental impacts while striving for cleaner processes. This method yields reliable information when input data is sufficient; however, in uncertain systems Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used as a means to compensate for insufficient data. The MC optimization model was constructed from environmental emissions, process parameters and operation constraints. The results of MC optimization allow for the prediction of environmental performance and the opportunity for environmental improvement. The case study presented here focuses on the acidification improvement regarding uncertain emissions and on the available operation of Taiwan's power plants. The boundary definitions of LCA were established for generation, fuel refining and mining. The model was constructed according to objective functional minimization of acidification potential, base loading, fuel cost and generation mix constraints. Scenario simulations are given the different variation of fuel cost ratios for Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that fuel cost was the most important parameter influencing the acidification potential for seven types of fired power. Owing to the low operational loading, coal-fired power is the best alternative for improving acidification. The optimal scenario for acidification improvement occurred at 15% of the fuel cost. The impact decreased from 1.39 to 1.24 kg SO₂-eq./MWh. This reduction benefit was about 10.5% lower than the reference year. Regarding eco-efficiency at an optimum scenario level of 5%, the eco-efficiency value was − 12.4 $US/kg SO₂-eq. Considering the environmental and economical impacts, results indicated that the ratio of coal-fired steam turbine should be reduced.     

Beyond the lamppost: Optimal prevention and control of the Brown Tree Snake in Hawaii

We develop an integrated model for the prevention and control of an invasive species. The generality of the model allows its use for both existing and potential threats to the system of interest. The deterministic nature of arrivals in the model enables clear examination of the tradeoffs inherent when choosing between prevention and control strategies. We illuminate how optimal expenditure paths change in response to various biological and economic parameters for the case of the Brown Tree Snake in Hawaii. Results suggest that it is more advantageous to spend money finding the small population of snakes as they occur than attempting to prevent all future introductions. Like the drunk that looks for his keys only where the light is, public policy may fail to look “beyond the lamppost” for snakes that have already arrived but have not yet been detected. Actively searching for a potential population of snakes rather than waiting for an accidental discovery may save Hawaii tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in future damages, interdiction expenditures, and control costs.     

Sharing a common resource in a sustainable development context: The case of a wood innovation system

This case study of the Aquitaine wood filière emphasizes the need to integrate a stronger consideration of natural resources in the analysis of innovation systems. The analysis focuses on eight eco-innovation projects representing the Aquitaine wood filière, and carried out under the aegis of the Industries and Maritime Pine of the Future ‘competitiveness cluster.’ We show that dependence on the wood natural resource can configure the limits, objectives and expected performance of such innovation systems. While previous approaches have considered similar innovation systems from territorial, sectoral or technological perspectives, we argue that centering the analysis on this natural resource better enables consideration of the technological and environmental tensions and risks that are likely to destabilize the system.     

Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight

Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and set-up of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through. Lessons include: Scenarios using ‘aspirational futures’ should include expectable, challenging, and visionary alternatives; beware of and understand ‘allergic reactions’ to foresight given some individuals', particularly leaders', psychological preferences; foresight is most effectively done by and for top leadership but foresight for units or regions of the organization can also be successful; to get the most value, it is important to err on the side of boldness and vision in developing scenarios; foresight efforts create a ‘safe space’ for exploring challenging situations; associations as collections of companies or professionals have unique foresight needs including elected leadership that rotates every year, and the need to communicate the results of foresight efforts to their members effectively; government and corporations have more similarities than differences in foresight, but companies have more resources and can move quickly to develop and use the foresight.     

Dynamics of the North-South welfare gap and global sustainability

The vast heterogeneity among nations in terms of economic and demographic characteristics is evident, despite being overlooked in some global studies. In this heterogeneity, it is possible to identify some distinct aggregate classes differing at some very fundamental level: developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study investigates these two distinct groups of socio-economic systems, as they interact in a context of global sustainability. We identify population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyze them using a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which discriminates the two groups of nations, is constructed to study the dynamics of variables related to the above key issues. The model is tested using extensive data between the years 1980-2005. According to the reference behavior covering the period 1980-2050, it is not viable to close the welfare gap between North and South, given the current prevailing non-renewable-resource-based growth system. A non-renewable-resource-based system adopted by the economic system of growing South would take the global system even closer to its limits. It is observed that indicators like reserve-to-demand ratio fail to provide reliable signals for a timely transition to alternative resources, and a very serious economic recession due to resource scarcity is likely to develop in the next couple of decades. By coupling the demographic and economic dynamics, it is shown that an economic slowdown due to a resource scarcity may have a dramatic widening effect on the already existing welfare gap. Scenario and policy experiments verify the widely accepted importance of stabilizing the population growth in South, transition to alternative energy resources, and investment support to the South in this transition simultaneously in order to reduce the welfare gap between the two blocks. It is observed that enthusiastic targets for an energy transition may have a serious negative impact on the welfare level experienced in South, whereas an energy transition in South supported by North seems to have the most desirable outcome regarding the welfare gap.     

Bootstrapping R and adjusted R in regression analysis

In this paper, using the bootstrap method, we consider to estimate the standard errors of R² and which are measures of their precision, and to construct their confidence intervals. It is shown by Monte Carlo experiments that the bootstrap standard errors are considerably accurate estimates of the exact ones. It is also shown that although the bootstrap 95% confidence interval of R² do not include the true value of the parent coefficient of determination in some particular cases, such a phenomenon does not occur when is used.     

p-Dominance and Equilibrium Selection under Perfect Foresight Dynamics

This paper studies equilibrium selection based on a class of perfect foresight dynamics and relates it to the notion of p-dominance. A continuum of rational players is repeatedly and randomly matched to play a symmetric n×n game. There are frictions: opportunities to revise actions follow independent Poisson processes. The dynamics has stationary states, each of which corresponds to a Nash equilibrium of the static game. A strict Nash equilibrium is linearly stable under the perfect foresight dynamics if, independent of the current action distribution, there exists a consistent belief that any player necessarily plays the Nash equilibrium action at every revision opportunity. It is shown that a strict Nash equilibrium is linearly stable under the perfect foresight dynamics with a small degree of friction if and only if it is the p-dominant equilibrium with p<1/2. It is also shown that if a strict Nash equilibrium is the p-dominant equilibrium with p<1/2, then it is uniquely absorbing (and globally accessible) for a small friction (but not vice versa). Set-valued stability concepts are introduced and their existence is shown. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

Opinion convergence in location: A spatial version of the Delphi method

This paper proposes a modified version of the Delphi method, starting from the assumption that in many situations the convergence of opinions can be considered in a spatial context. The Spatial Delphi we suggest is based, like the classical Delphi, on the judgments of experts, and it is useful in the consultations for decision and/or forecast purposes, provided that they concern matters of spatial location. The basis for the questionnaire is a map, on which each expert provides, as answer(s), one or more opinion-points, i.e., locations that, according to their opinion, are best for a specific purpose. We propose a method for narrowing the area of convergence along a multi-step procedure so that the final result of the consultation is a small portion of the initial territory with respect to the initial area considered. Besides a simulation study, we report also a prototype application with a panel of twelve experts.