Discontinuous innovation capability accumulation in latecomer natural resource-processing firms

Most of the studies that describe the building of innovation capability in emerging and developing economies have focused on the ways in which latecomer firms develop continuously towards advanced capability levels along existing technological trajectories, particularly for the assembled products industries, especially in Asia. A slightly different approach is adopted herein by focusing on pathways of discontinuous capability building of firms in natural resource-processing industries. By drawing on evidence from a variety of case studies taken from 13 forestry, pulp, and paper firms in Brazil in the period 1950-2007, it was found that: (1) in contrast with the majority of case studies reported in the literature, the pathways followed by firms in their accumulation of innovation capability involved a qualitative departure from the established technological trajectory at an early stage in the development of their capability; (2) the pathways of firms along the new technological trajectories were nevertheless characterised by a high degree of variability (from intermediate to world leading innovators) in terms of the levels and speeds of the accumulation of innovation capability; (3) firms that have attained progressively higher levels of innovative performance have more rapidly developed a combination of internal and external research-based arrangements in order to undertake increasingly complex, but firm-centred innovation efforts. This paper sheds some light on some of the discussions that relate to the role of natural resources in the patterns of industrial progress and growth in those countries endowed with particular natural resource-based industries. It also provides a methodological contribution to the study of the long-term innovation strategies that make use of the dynamics of capability building, especially within natural resource-processing industries.     

Functions of innovation systems: A new approach for analysing technological change

The central idea of this paper is that innovation systems are a very important determinant of technological change. We describe that the emergence of a new innovation system and changes in existing innovation systems co-evolve with the process of technological change. Therefore, it is necessary to create more insight in the dynamics of innovation systems. Traditional methods of innovation system analysis that mainly focus on the structure of innovation systems have proven to be insufficient. Therefore, we propose a framework that focuses on a number of processes that are highly important for well performing innovation systems. These processes are labeled as ‘functions of innovation systems’. After explaining this framework and embedding it in existing literature, we propose a method for systematically mapping those processes taking place in innovation systems and resulting in technological change. This method can be characterized as a process analysis or history event analysis. Clarifying examples are taken from the empirical field of Sustainable Technology Development.     

Cumulative causation in the formation of a technological innovation system: The case of biofuels in the Netherlands

Despite its worldwide success, the innovation systems approach is often criticised for being theoretically underdeveloped. This paper aims to contribute to the conceptual and methodological basis of the (technological) innovation systems approach. We propose an alteration that improves the analysis of dynamics, especially with respect to emerging innovation systems. We do this by expanding on the technological innovation systems and system functions literature, and by employing the method of ‘event history analysis’. By mapping events, the interactions between system functions and their development over time can be analysed. Based on this it becomes possible to identify forms of positive feedback, i.e. cumulative causation. As an illustration of the approach, we assess the biofuels innovation system in The Netherlands as it evolved from 1990 to 2007.     

The interactions between national systems and sectoral patterns of innovation

Do national and sectoral innovation systems interact with each other? The paper explores this unexplored question by carrying out a cross-sector cross-country analysis of European systems of innovation in the 1990s. The empirical study takes Pavitt’s (Res Policy 13:343–373, 1984) taxonomy as a starting point, and it investigates the cross-country variability of Pavitt’s sectoral patterns of innovation. The analysis leads to three main results. First, the various technological trajectories show large differences across countries, due to the influence of national innovation systems. Second, there is evidence that the interaction between national systems and sectoral patterns of innovation constitutes an independent source of variability in the sample. Third, the analysis leads to the identification of eight sector- and country-specific technological trajectories in European manufacturing industries, and, based on that, proposes a refinement of Pavitt’s taxonomy. The refined taxonomy, in a nutshell, suggests that sectoral systems must be supported by and interact with their respective national systems in order to become industrial leaders.     

产品相似是技术并购的“福音”吗——基于资源编排视角

技术并购是企业从外部获取技术、提升创新水平的重要手段。然而，如何有效推动中国企业开展技术并购，这是迫切需要学者探究与回答的问题。为此，基于资源编排理论，按照技术并购中资源结构化—资源重组—资源撬动的动态演进过程，探究产品相似对各个资源编排阶段的影响。使用文本分析法，利用Python软件对上市公司年度报告进行数据抓取，测算并购双方的产品相似性数值，并利用条件Logit模型、负二项回归法进行实证检验。结果发现，在资源结构化阶段，产品相似有利于推动技术并购交易的达成；在资源重组阶段，产品相似有助于促进知识吸收，并加强对目标方资源的整合力度；在资源撬动阶段，产品相似有助于企业撬动融资环境和竞争环境以获利，并最终提升企业创新水平。总体而言，主并方在开展技术并购时，可以把产品相似作为挑选目标方的依据，从而降低技术并购失败的可能性。从政策看，政府应该加强对上市公司产品信息披露质量的监管及审查，构建有利于企业创新的竞争环境，鼓励企业积极参与技术并购，真正发挥技术并购对于促进企业创新的资源配置作用。     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

Innovation strategy of local pharmaceutical firms in Korea: a multivariate analysis

This article examines 37 local pharamaceutical firms in Korea to identify different patterns of innovation behaviour associated with four types of firms, which are categorized by two variables: the scale of operation and technological capability. Both bivariate and multivariate analyses support the hypotheses that these four types of firms exhibit different innovation strategies and in turn the level of performance they achieved. Specifically, large firms with high technological capability diversify their efforts, investing in their own R & D and tapping foreign capabilities, and as a result exhibit the highest degree of innovativeness, while large firms with low technological capability resort primarily to the transfer of foreign technology for short-term profitability. In contrast, small firms with high technological capability rely mainly on their own R & D efforts with the assistance from local R & D institutes and enjoy the highest growth rate, whereas small firms with low technological capability imitate technologically low-grade products by hiring experienced technical personnel from other firms. There are also fragmented indications that many local firms have long evolved from small firms with low capability to large firms with high capability. Finally, managerial and theoretical implications for the innovation strategies in LDCs/NICsE are discussed.     

On S-curves and tipping points

In his discussion in this journal of Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, Modis criticizes Kurzweil's loose characterization of the “knee” of a growth curve. Likewise, the “tipping points” described by Gladwell (The Tipping Point) are clearly relevant to forecasting systems, but Gladwell did not mathematically identify such points. Both concepts refer to a point on the curve where growth accelerates dramatically and sustains itself. What can be said in a rigorous way about knees and tipping points in growth systems?The answer has to do with the number of parameters of the growth curve, and the (probabilistic) model underlying the growth curve. Using probability theory and computational experiments, this paper clarifies these points for the logistic and Bass curves (identifying an unambiguous tipping point for the latter), and explores the merits of a 3-parameter model of innovation adoption. It concludes that if forecasters are to deal scientifically with the now-established management notion of “tipping points,” a 3-parameter model is needed. The paper also resolves four minor but annoying paradoxes in the growth curve literature.     

Dynamics of the North-South welfare gap and global sustainability

The vast heterogeneity among nations in terms of economic and demographic characteristics is evident, despite being overlooked in some global studies. In this heterogeneity, it is possible to identify some distinct aggregate classes differing at some very fundamental level: developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study investigates these two distinct groups of socio-economic systems, as they interact in a context of global sustainability. We identify population, economic growth, welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyze them using a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which discriminates the two groups of nations, is constructed to study the dynamics of variables related to the above key issues. The model is tested using extensive data between the years 1980-2005. According to the reference behavior covering the period 1980-2050, it is not viable to close the welfare gap between North and South, given the current prevailing non-renewable-resource-based growth system. A non-renewable-resource-based system adopted by the economic system of growing South would take the global system even closer to its limits. It is observed that indicators like reserve-to-demand ratio fail to provide reliable signals for a timely transition to alternative resources, and a very serious economic recession due to resource scarcity is likely to develop in the next couple of decades. By coupling the demographic and economic dynamics, it is shown that an economic slowdown due to a resource scarcity may have a dramatic widening effect on the already existing welfare gap. Scenario and policy experiments verify the widely accepted importance of stabilizing the population growth in South, transition to alternative energy resources, and investment support to the South in this transition simultaneously in order to reduce the welfare gap between the two blocks. It is observed that enthusiastic targets for an energy transition may have a serious negative impact on the welfare level experienced in South, whereas an energy transition in South supported by North seems to have the most desirable outcome regarding the welfare gap.     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

Towards a Disequilibrium Theory of Endogenous Economic Growth

This paper discusses the need for a new approach to economic growth theory. The standard theory of growth-in-equilibrium driven by exogenous, uncaused, productivity gains has an implication that is both unjustified and perverse from a policy perspective: that government intervention of any kind can only introduce constraints and reduce option space, thus decreasing potential growth. It is argued that growth theory should (1) acknowledge the importance of natural resources, especially fossil fuels, as a driver of past and present economic growth, (2) incorporate an explicit recognition that growth is a consequence of technological innovation, especially radical innovation, that often responds to natural resource scarcities or other societal needs and (3) explicitly reflect the fact that the important (i.e. scarce) factors of production in economics can and do change over time, i.e. from a rural ‘cowboy’ economy of the past to an urbanized ‘spaceship’ economy of the future. In short, it should reflect the fact that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’. The first and third of these modifications have been proposed before, but not in combination. The third seems to be new.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新——基于全球跨国面板的实证分析

选取全球87个国家2000—2016年的数据,分析了老龄化与资源依赖如何对技术创新产生影响,并运用工具变量二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了实证检验。研究思路主要基于人力资本这一传导机制,通过计量模型也证实了人力资本在老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新间的传导作用。研究结果表明:老龄化对技术创新并非阻碍作用,反而会促进一国技术创新发展。然而,资源依赖与大多数研究结论一致,会对技术创新带来消极影响。全球各国应该提高资源利用效率,防范自然资源依赖对人力资本投资的挤出效应,并且应注重人力资本投资,应对日益严峻的老龄化现象,提高区域技术创新水平。     

自然资源资产离任审计如何影响企业绿色技术创新?

为检验领导干部自然资源资产离任审计在实现其环境治理功能过程中是否驱动了企业绿色技术创新,利用2014年领导干部自然资源资产离任审计试点这一准自然实验,运用双重差分法(DID)实证检验了其对试点地区企业绿色技术创新的影响。研究发现:相较于非试点地区,领导干部自然资源资产离任审计显著提升了试点地区的企业绿色技术创新水平。进一步研究发现,政府对企业绿色技术创新行为进行奖励产生的绿色技术创新激励效应与政府对企业污染行为进行处罚产生的约束效应是促使企业绿色技术创新水平提升的两种路径。研究结论为领导干部自然资源资产离任审计的政策效果提供了经验证据,也丰富了企业绿色技术创新激励机制领域的研究。     

The sufficiency strategy: Would rich-world frugality lower environmental impact?

One alleged weapon against unsustainable environmental impact is for the wealthy to consume less. This sufficiency strategy is to complement the efficiency strategy of lowering ratios of resource inputs to economic outputs; the former would reduce the affluence factor in I = PAT, the latter the technology factor. That the latter strategy suffers from a consumption rebound is widely recognized. This paper identifies a similar rebound when the affluence factor is autonomously lowered: The lower initial demand lowers prices, which in turn stimulates new demand by others. The strategy moreover addresses only the rich, raising questions of its theoretical maximum efficacy. Its proponents usually conflate frugality with the North-South dichotomy and intragenerational with intergenerational equity. Moreover, there are difficulties with the supporting arguments that frugality is good for one’s own sake as well as for the environment, and that the rich should ‘lead the way’ to living more lightly. Personal behaviour change is furthermore not a substitute for international political efforts. Finally, since all changes in right-side factors of the I = PAT equation change other right-side factors, such indirect attacks on impact should be abandoned in favor of supply and emissions quotas.     

Technological innovation and knowledge network in Asia: Evidence from comparison of information and communication technologies among six countries

South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and India have become much larger force in the world economy. Due to the enormous contribution of the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in economic growth, this study investigates four main issues related to technological innovation and knowledge network in ICT among six countries. First, indicators of technological innovation were evaluated and used to compare capability of technological innovation in ICT between the six countries. Secondly, differences in innovation configurations among six countries were manifested. Thirdly, relative innovation strengths of these six countries were examined in five sub-technological fields. Finally, this study consists of analyzing the interactions into knowledge network among them; moreover, this study manifests the difference of knowledge network in five sub-technological field of ICT. The empirical findings of this study, based on analysis of a patent and citation dataset comprised of all patents granted by the U.S. Patents and Trademark Office (USPTO) to assignees in six countries from 1976 to 2006, are helpful to understand the comparative development of technological innovation of ICT in six countries.     

“资源诅咒”悖论国外实证研究的最新进展及其争论

许多文献证明,自然资源缺乏的国家往往依靠技术和制度创新,实现了更快的经济增长,而自然资源丰裕的国家却容易陷入资源依赖型增长陷阱,经济学家用资源诅咒来描述这一经济增长中的悖论。资源诅咒的出现激起了学者们的广泛研究兴趣,产生了大量实证研究成果。本文将从荷兰病、制度和暴力冲突三个维度,对资源诅咒的国外最新实证文献进行系统梳理,并对目前学术界存在的争论进行述评。     

Interaction patterns of systemic problems in distributed energy technology diffusion: a case study of photovoltaics in the Western Cape province of South Africa

ABSTRACT

Compared to large-scale renewable energy systems, distributed systems have diffused relatively slowly in recent years, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we analysed the barriers to the diffusion of distributed photovoltaics in South Africa by applying the technological innovation system framework. More specifically, we carried out an interview-based structural-functional analysis to identify underlying systemic problems, reveal their patterns of interaction, and analyse the implications of these patterns for the relationship among the key processes within the innovation system, the so-called system functions. We identified a variety of interlinked problems, shed light on the specific roles of different, mal-performing, system functions, and revealed constellations where specific functions blocked each other and, thereby, created lock-in situations. Although the findings reveal the complexity of the problems that are associated with the implementation of distributed energy technologies, they also indicate that these problems may be addressed successfully.     

循环经济下的水资源可持续利用

当前我国面临严重的水资源危机，循环经济是保证我国水资源安全的新的经济发展模式，是水资源新战略的理想选择。循环经济下的水资源可持续利用需要新的水资源制度安排和水资源经济运行方式，使人类对水资源的开发利用活动既符合水循环自然规律，又遵循社会经济规律，实现水循环与经济循环的和谐统一。发展循环经济，实现水资源可持续利用必须进行制度创新、技术创新和观念创新。