Why are we surprised at surprises? Integrating disruption theory and system analysis with the scenario methodology to help identify disruptions and discontinuities

The scenario literature has limited discussion on the process of identifying the systemic conditions that could create disruption and/or discontinuity. This paper focuses on the integration of Christensen's theory of disruption and system analysis with the scenario methodology to develop a framework that provides an understanding of the underlying systemic conditions that create disruption and/or discontinuity. The framework is developed from a recent scenario case study to show the process of integrating these three theories and approaches. The case study reveals the systemic conditions inherent in the UK energy industry and how these conditions may portend discontinuity.     

The role of human and social capital in growth: extending our understanding

Human capital, institutions and social capital are now all recognisedas significant factors of growth. They have largely been studiedseparately, and although they present sufficient common characteristicsto be conceptualised as one main category distinct from physicalcapital, it may still be more important to focus on the linksbetween their specific sub-categories. Direct links with incomemay be spurious, as there appears to be a ‘web of associations’between the sub-categories, which would benefit from furtherempirical investigation. This paper reviews the literature onhuman capital, institutions and social capital, extracting threesub-categories of human capital (human skills capital, stock-of-knowledgeand entrepreneurship) and two of social capital (low- and high-rationalisation).Specific areas are then suggested for further empirical study.     

On the bad reputation of reputational concerns

Can reputational concerns do any good? Economists have shown how they lead agents to ignore valuable information, to herd, and to become overly risk averse. We explore how they may be a social blessing. An agent may exert effort to become informed about the uncertain benefits of a project. A smart agent's efforts make him better informed; a dumb agent's efforts are to no avail. If an agent does not know his type, reputational concerns are socially beneficial. If an agent knows his type, reputational concerns may be socially beneficial. A dumb agent takes inefficient, unconventional decisions to mimic a smart agent. The latter exerts more effort in order not to be mistaken for a dumb. This holds whether or not project rejection is a safe haven for the dumb.     

State capacity and the quality of policies. Revisiting the relationship between openness and government size

Countries with different levels of state capacity have access to different sets of policies. In particular, countries with strong state capabilities are able to draw from a broader menu of policies than countries with lower capabilities. We apply and test this insight to the case of exposure to trade‐related risk. So far, most of the literature has considered that only one type of policy—the one that increases government size—can help to overcome the challenge imposed by openness. However, there are a number of policies that can mitigate trade‐induced risks, many of which do not have the necessary implication of increasing public spending. Yet, many such policies require governmental capabilities not available to any country. For that reason, while the choice of a particular policy within a menu depends on political conditions, the relationship between openness and the size of government might be mediated by the capabilities of states. This paper provides reduced form evidence confirming that the empirical relationship between openness and government size is conditional on state capabilities. Therefore, public policies cannot be assessed independently of the capacity of the State that would have to implement them.     

Deriving the Engel Curve: Pierre Bourdieu and the Social Critique of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

In Post Keynesian Economics, theorists have sought an alternative to neoclassical choice theory by turning to Maslow's hierarchy of needs (Pasinetti 1981 Pasinetti LL 1981 Structural Change and Economic Growth Cambridge: Cambridge University Press  , Lavoie 1992 Lavoie M 1992 Foundations of Post-Keynesian Economic Analysis London: Edward Elgar  ). Instead of each individual surveying a complete choice set, individuals prioritize (basic) physiological needs, moving with increasing incomes to satisfy safety and social needs, through to the higher needs associated with self-actualization. This framework provides a theoretical foundation for the Engel curve, since as incomes increase consumers become satiated when particular needs are satisfied. As an alternative to the neoclassical preoccupation with prices and substitution, a Post Keynesian theory of consumption has been formulated with income effects as the cornerstone. The main problem with Maslow's approach is that individual needs are innate, so that questions of social interaction and culture are seriously downgraded. In this article, the social theory of Pierre Bourdieu is offered as an alternative to the Maslow approach, providing the basis for a social critique of consumerism and an alternative evolutionary theory of consumption. In this approach, the structure of the social hierarchy both constrains the consumption of lower social strata and leads to subtle, less conspicuous consumption patterns at the top of the social hierarchy: a scenario that could provide a social foundation to the Engel curve.     

试论技术美在设计艺术中的内容及要求

技术美产生于机械生产中科技与美的规律相结合的条件下,随着现代工业批量化生产,它在设计艺术审美中起着重要作用,成为设计产品的审美标准之一。文章阐述设计艺术中技术美的内容,探讨了设计艺术对技术美在功能、形式和材料等方面的要求。     

论诚信特性、生成因素及良好诚信环境的培育

诚信问题实质上人们在市场交易中的道德选择问题,本文探讨了诚信的特性,即互惠性、隐蔽性和单独实施的风险性,分析了影响诚信生成的多种因素,如信仰、价值观、现实的交易状况、交易特点及制度的供给等等,并对如何培育良好的诚信环境提出了一些针对性的对策。     

虚拟企业经营模式及其对我国企业改革的启示

虚拟企业的出现是新经济条件下的必然产物。新经济下技术更新速度加快，企业竞争空前激烈，企业单枪匹马地参与竞争收益有限，风险无限。虚拟企业通过准一体化的形式发挥企业和市场的优势，充分利用企业自身的优势资源，开发企业外部资源共同获益。现阶段我们应该充分了解虚拟企业的运作模式及虚拟企业的经济意义，研究了新经济下我国企业虚拟化经营的可能方式及其对我国企业改革的启示。     

新形势下我国货币政策的传导绩效及其优化

本课题坚持货币政策短期有效的命题，同时也强调，影响我国货币政策绩效的主要是长期因素。未到位的制度转轨引致包括短期因素在内的综合因素积累，在经济转型期以内生性通货萎缩为释解。其根源在于经济结构和投融资体制广泛存在的结构性矛盾和扭曲，削弱了货币政策的传导绩效。一方面，传统的货币政策传导途径处于梗阻状态；另一方面，现有货币政策传导架难以适应资本市场迅速发展、广泛的货币替代等新形势发展，货币政策的外部约束加强。提高货币政策有效性首先要解决的是通货萎缩的内生性问题，其核心在于重建适应于经济结构变化的投融资制度，在政策层面，应该搭配好财政政策与货币政策。     

我国农产品质量安全刑法保护的立法完善

农产品质量安全关系国计民生,对其进行刑法规制具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。我国已初步形成切实可行的农产品质量安全刑法保护体系,但还存在核心概念界定模糊、罪状规定不科学、刑罚手段有缺陷、过失犯罪有待完善等问题,需要通过立法逐步建立和健全相关的制度,起到预防犯罪和惩罚犯罪的相应效果。     

正确认识利益相关论者的企业产权和社会责任观

"利益相关者"理论描述了企业同其他社会主体的联系,却没有看清各种不同关系的实质,以它作为诉求企业所有权的根据,混淆了不同的产权主体和产权客体,颠倒了所有权与契约关系的地位和作用,分不清不同经济关系的处理原则,在产权理论上产生一系列错误.另一方面,它指出企业不可能离开社会的支持,必须处理好同其他社会主体,特别是企业职工的关系,为改善企业的经营管理,树立企业的社会责任感,构建正常的市场关系,作出有益的启示.但是,社会主义公有制内部的利益关系已经大大超越了在资本主义土壤产生的"利益相关者"理论所涉及的内容.只有它才是构建社会主义和谐社会的可靠基础.以社会主义关系及其形成的思维去论证"利益相关者"理论,或者以这种理论去解释和处理社会主义公有制的内部关系,都是不可取的.     

Schumpeter and the `Schmollerprogramm': integrating theory and history in the analysis of economic development

This essay addresses the historical and institutional aspects of Schumpeter's thought. It suggests that Schumpeter prepared a pluralist research agenda, formulated in accordance with the conceptual perspective of the German Historical School, as presented by major scholars such as Schmoller, Sombart, Spiethoff and Max Weber. Schumpeter's notion of development, with its emphasis on the correspondence of economic and socio-cultural evolution, is therefore to be viewed in the context of the comprehensive Schmollerian approach. Moreover the ethical-evolutionary components of Schmoller's ideas point at the vital role of the German Historical School in the elaboration of a modern evolutionary economics in Schumpeterian terms. The essay concludes that the Schmollerprogramm is going to inspire further developments in Schumpeterian economics, as the integration of theory and history continuously marks the research agenda of evolutionary approaches to economic development.     

论我国公共秩序保留制度在国际民商事案件中的适用

公共秩序保留,是指一国法院依据冲突规范本应适用外国法时,因其适用会与法院地国的重大利益、基本政策、道德的基本观念或法律的基本原则相抵触而排除其适用的一种保留制度。实践中,公共秩序保留制度存在着很多不确定性,在国际私法的法律选择和法律适用中,给司法实践带来许多困难,增加了审判的难度。中国没有对适用这项制度的条件做出具体规定,这赋予了法官巨大的自由裁量权。如何保证案件审理结果的一致性和相关法律的可知性、明确性,如何对公共秩序保留原则的适用加以限制,是我国公共秩序保留制度适用中面临的问题。     

Industrial policy, competence blocs and the role of science in economic development

Government is studied as supporter of science and of the transformation of scientific discoveries into new technology and firm formation. The importance of scientific discovery outside academe is recognized as is the experimental nature of the transformation process entailing frequent business failure. Competence bloc theory is used to understand the minimum set of actors with competence needed for the incentive structure to be complete and the risk of losing the winners minimized. Competence bloc analysis also helps clarify the theoretical foundations of industrial policy and useful roles for science parks. I find that to succeed as a catalyst for industrial competitiveness park management should be less concerned with science and technology and more with the economics of the transformation process.     

Increased Input Supplies,Government Size,Welfare and Trade in the Presence of Increasing Returns

This paper examines the impact of exogenous changes in the supply of primary factors of production on the relative size of government and welfare in the context of a model where increasing returns are present in the production of an intermediate good. It is shown that an increase in the supply of labor (capital) increases the relative size of government if the share of labor is large (small) in the public sector as compared to the private sector. An increase in the supply of capital increases welfare but the impact of an increase in the supply of labor cannot be unambiguously determined. In the context of a North-South model, the paper also considers the pattern of trade. It is shown that North will export capital-intensive intermediate goods to the South. Received September 13, 2001; revised version received June 1, 2002 Published online: February 17, 2003 I am indebted to Professor Bob Catley and two anonymous referees for invaluable comments and suggestions. However, responsibility of any remaining errors or omissions is mine alone.     

对国际经贸专业实践教学体系的再思考——以新疆财经大学为例

为了培养既懂国际惯例理论知识，又具有实际动手能力的高层次应用型国际经贸人才，尤其是为新疆经济和外经贸发展培养高素质专业人才，我们必须适应我国加入WTO的形势，构建包括认识实习、社会调查、课程实习和双语教学、校内学年实习、校外毕业实习及撰写毕业论文等模块在内的实践教学体系。     

The temporal dynamics of technology promises in government and industry partnerships for digital innovation: the case of the Copyright Hub

What is the expectation work required to ensure that technological innovation initially supported by government funding is subsequently taken up by market actors? This paper explores this question by applying a linked ecologies framework to the study of the Copyright Hub, a digital infrastructure for Intellectual Property trading developed in the UK. We draw our analysis from a five year long study, including forty-six interviews and six weeks of participant observation. We found that expectation work in policy-led infrastructural communities entails (1) leveraging technology to reshape the position of actors in the innovation space; (2) exploiting the different temporalities of expectation work in allied ecologies and (3) mobilising ‘slow’ expectations to provide momentum to the newly arranged innovation space. Highlighting difference in temporal dynamics for the various partners involved as a ‘hinging’ factor, our analysis contributes to clarifying the complex temporal alignment of policy and innovation processes in technology projects.