共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
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Theodore Gordon Author Vitae Adam Pease Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2006,73(4):321-333
The authors have recently developed a new approach to performing a Delphi study that does not involve the use of sequential “rounds” and as a result, greatly improves the efficiency of the process and shortens the time to perform such studies. This paper describes this process, RT Delphi, and illustrates its use in a decision-making application drawn from the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University. The illustrative application involves setting priorities among strategies for dealing with anticipated terrorist activities that might be initiated by a single deranged individual. 相似文献
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The general question of whether Delphi users have learned from Delphi research of the past decade is addressed in this article. Within the wider context of Delphi expansion anddevelopment, specific attention is given to examining the nature and quality of the growing number of Delphi dissertations. Although there are some signs for encouragement, the findings from the sample of dissertationsexamined might also give cause for some concern. Findings raise continuing questions related to excellencein the execution of Delphi studies and also to the concentration of applications of the technique in certain fields. It appears that the future of Delphi could be brighter if users of the technique would be more careful in implementing “quality control.” 相似文献
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Walter E. Riggs 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1983,23(1):89-94
Much research has been devoted to the Delphi technique. However, very little substantive work has been done on the subject of Delphi accuracy. The purpose of this effort was to test the accuracy of Delphi vs the conference method in making long-range forecasts. College students were used to form Delphi and conference groups that predicted the point spreads of college football games far in advance of play. The results substantiate the claim that Delphi outperforms conference methods on the basis of accuracy for long-range forecasting. 相似文献
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Gene RoweAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(9):1487-1490
The Delphi technique has been around for over half a century, so now seems a proper time to consider its past, present and future. This introduction characterises the papers in this special Delphi issue, which include both conceptual and empirical works. It summarises the main lessons that have been learned from these for the conduct of the technique, and provides a call for more and better empirical studies in the future. 相似文献
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《Journal of development economics》1986,22(1):129-170
This paper surveys the new literature on international trade relevant to the North-South controversy. In the first part, two types of North-South models are considered: the ‘unequal exchange’ theory of Lewis and Emmanuel, and the models of dynamic interaction of Findlay, Taylor and others. The analysis focuses on the determinants of growth, the terms of trade and relative employment in the world economy. In the second part, the paper reviews the empirical literature on South-North and South-South trade, and the theories of North-South technological gaps, intra-industry trade and external economies. Finally, we analyze the literature on exports and economic growth, and the neo-classical, Keynesian and disequilibrium approaches to the theory of import controls. 相似文献
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Delphi is a popular, long-range, qualitative forecasting technique that has been extensively applied to a wide variety of problems in different domains. Since the method was conceived in the early 1950s at the Rand Corporation, different variations of Delphi have evolved in an effort to meet the unique forecasting needs of different decision makers. This bibliographic study surveys the literature on the methodology and applications of Delphi over a period of two decades (1975–1994). A total of 463 papers were identified out of which 254 papers treat Delphi as a primary subject while the remaining 209 papers treat Delphi as a secondary subject. The study concludes with a brief commentary on the Delphi technique that may be useful for researchers and practitioners in qualitative forecasting. 相似文献
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Richard C. Stapleton 《Spanish Economic Review》1999,1(1):1-20
This paper surveys some recent developments in the theory of capital markets. Particular emphasis is given to two strands
of the literature. The first covers some recent and fundamental extensions to the theory of risk aversion and the demand for
risky assets. These papers are concerned with the effect of non-hedgeable background risk on risk attitudes. The important
implications for finance are for the size of the risk premium (the equity premium puzzle) and for the demand for and pricing
of contingent claims. For example, background risk may help to explain the apparent over-pricing of options on equity indices.
The second topic is interest rate term structure models. Stochastic term structure models try to capture the possible future
shapes of the term structure of interest rates. This is relevant for the pricing of contingent claims, in particular for the
pricing of interest rate derivatives such as American-style swaptions. The paper will survey the most important recent models
in the literature, each of which satisfies the fundamental no-arbitrage property. It will discuss the implications of the
models for the pricing of both European-style and American-style options. 相似文献
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