A transitions model for sustainable mobility

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.     

Infrastructure investment for a transition to hydrogen automobiles

This paper describes work undertaken in the MATISSE project to explore the potential for a sustainable hydrogen transition within Europe and the implications for infrastructure investment. Stakeholder engagement work conducted within MATISSE identified unsustainable aspects of current transport and desirable characteristics of sustainable hydrogen road transport. Key criteria were: emissions reduction, security of energy supply, affordability and economic competitiveness.Results from the ASTRA model show that a transition to hydrogen transport fuels would have an increase in GDP, employment and investment; and growth in a number of sectors (electronic, chemical, mechanical and automotive) associated with hydrogen fuel cell technology. A hydrogen diffusion model shows that in a few years after 2040 all cars in Germany could be hydrogen driven cars. Fast build-up of a network of at least 500 filling stations (in urban areas and at highways) is very important for the market acceptance of hydrogen vehicles and compared with subsidies for vehicles and fuel the necessary investments are very small. For fuel infrastructure:

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Only a total amount of approx. 200 million Euros are necessary for infrastructure build-up in urban areas.

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Additional support is needed for installation of hydrogen filing stations on highways (approx. 100 million Euros).

     

Another strategy to assess sustainable development

The goal of sustainoble development is to preserve sustainabitity trod simultaneously prevent catastrophe in a man-land .system. However, almost all the existing approaches to assessing sustainable development are to measure the sustainability. namely appraise from the obverse side of the sustainable development. So it seems necessary to attack the same task on the reverse, namely to measure the passibility of eatostrophe. In this paper, with a case study of Tianjin, China. we employ catastrophe theory and models to integrate Tianjin＇s sustainable development indicators, and then deduce the catastrophe risk index （ CRI） to present the level of catastrophic possibility in the city. Applying catastrophe theory, is a new strategy to assess sustainable development and shows great practical significance, especially for those developing regions or countries, who always give more priority to their economy and therefore have more obligation to make sure whether their social economic activities might bring forth any ecological environment catastrophe. Besides, being both qualitative and quantitative, the approach could be employed to explore not only static characteristics bat also dynamic mechanism of man-land system. Although our work is only a maiden attempt and still calls for further effort to improve it, the case study of Tianjin in this paper would assure as the great promising future to apply, catastrophe theory to sustoinable devetopment modeling,     

Functions of innovation systems as a framework to understand sustainable technological change: Empirical evidence for earlier claims

Understanding the emergence of innovation systems is recently put central in research analysing the process of technological change. Especially the key activities that are important for the build up of an innovation system receive much attention. These are labelled ‘functions of innovation systems’. This paper builds on five empirical studies, related to renewable energy technologies, to test whether the functions of innovation systems framework is a valid framework to analyse processes of technological change. We test the claim that a specific set of functions is suitable. We also test the claim made in previous publications that the interactions between system functions accelerate innovation system emergence and growth. Both claims are confirmed.     

Vehicle-to-grid systems for sustainable development: An integrated energy analysis

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems represent a means by which power capacity in parked vehicles can be used to generate electricity for the grid. This paper describes the first detailed and global analysis of the potential of V2G technologies over the long-term (to 2100) using a comprehensive energy-systems model. In this analysis we explore the potential for V2G systems to supply a number of electricity submarkets and concomitantly accelerate the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies, including hybrid-electric and fuel cell drivetrains. We also examine the potential impact of V2G on the global energy system, particularly in terms of investment in conventional capacity, and the possible role of V2G-enabled vehicles in increasing the market penetration of renewable electricity generation technologies. Importantly, however, V2G technologies represent a paradigm shift in how the energy and mobility markets are related, and a number of possible barriers to the widespread adoption of this technology are also discussed.     

Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: An integrated scenario analysis

Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO₂ concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.     

Quantitative analysis on the contribution of industrial structure change to sustainable development： a case study of Fujian Province

Development and sustainability are the core connotation of sustainable development. Sustainability of economic development and the provision capability of resources and environment are two aspects of sustainable development. The former ones are the foundation of the latter ones＇. Industrial structure has a close relationship with sustainable development. The optimization of industrial structure is the important base for the sustainable development of modern economy and also the important ways of the sustainable utilization of resources and environment; The intensive growth effect of industrial structure change has the meaning of sustainable development. This paper reviews and explains the theory on the contribution of indus＇trial structure change to sustainable development, builds the calculation model through introducing the coefficient of industrial structure change, makes an empirical study on the contribution of industrial structure change to sustainable development in Fujian, and puts forward ways and policies of optimizing industrial structure both among industries and inside the industry in the process of industrial structure change.     

Climate reversals and the transition to agriculture

The transition to agriculture is generally acknowledged to be the economic foundation for population growth over the last 10,000 years and for modern civilization itself. Dates for pristine transitions to agriculture have become a key input into empirical work on economic growth over the very long run. We propose a model of the transition in which population and technology respond endogenously to climate. The available data on the southwest Asian case, other cases of pristine transition, and cases of non-transition are consistent with our model, but often inconsistent with rival explanations. In addition, our theory of the origins of agriculture has implications for instrumental variable strategies that can be used in empirical research on long run economic growth and development.      

A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy

This paper proposes a coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy, based on the coevolution of ecosystems, technologies, institutions, business strategies and user practices, within a multi-level micro-meso-macro perspective. This builds on and develops previous coevolutionary analyses of long-term technological and industrial change, and recent renewed interest within ecological economics on coevolutionary approaches. Previous work has analysed how the coevolution of technologies and institutions has led to the lock-in of current high-carbon energy systems; and how the coevolution of physical and social technologies and business strategies has brought significant material and welfare benefits to the minority of the world's population living in industrialised countries. The coevolutionary framework proposed here may be used to undertake: (1) detailed empirical analyses at a micro-meso level of the challenges relating to the innovation and adoption of particularly low-carbon technologies; (2) as a framework for analysing the multi-level interaction of social and technological elements within potential transition pathways to a low carbon energy system; (3) to assess the implications for economic growth and prosperity of a transition to a low carbon economy; and (4) to assist in the development of more formal, multi-level evolutionary economic models.     

Analysis of barriers in the transition toward sustainable mobility in the Netherlands

The transition toward a sustainable transportation system in the Netherlands takes place in the context of the Dutch “Transition management policy framework”. We study four technological routes that the “Platform Sustainable Mobility” has selected for this goal: (1) hybridization of vehicles, (2) liquid biofuels, (3) natural gas as a transportation fuel and (4) hydrogen as a transportation fuel. These technological routes all envision large-scale changes in vehicle propulsion technology and fuel infrastructure. Furthermore, they compete for the scarce resources available to invest in new (fuel) infrastructures, which implicates that these ‘transition paths’ are also interdependent at the level of the mobility system. The main outcome of the analysis is the identification of barriers that are currently blocking the transition toward sustainable mobility. Barriers are classified as being related to (1) technology and vehicle development, (2) the availability of (fuel) infrastructures, and (3) elements of the institutional infrastructure. The transition management framework currently misses guidelines for coping with (competing) technologies that each require large infrastructural investments. We further argue that avoiding undesired lock-ins and creating a beneficial institutional context for sustainable mobility cannot be pursued at the transition path level. Therefore, we recommend that a more systemic approach should be taken to the transition to sustainable mobility, in which the interdependencies between the transition paths are critically assessed and in which the possibilities to legitimize sustainable mobility as a whole should be used.     

On technological objects and the adoption of technological product innovations: rules, routines and the transition from analogue photography to digital imaging

We extend the transformational model of social activity proposedin recent realist social theory by importing into it a theoryof technological objects and technological change. The paperbegins with an account of the transformational model, focusingparticularly on the relationship between routines and socialrules. We then outline a theory of what we call the ‘technicalidentity’ of technological objects, drawing on the notionof collective assignments of agentive functions proposed bythe philosopher John Searle. Finally, we link this theory tothe transformational model and derive three broad categoriesof technological change. The framework as a whole is illustratedwith empirical material drawn from a recent study of the shiftfrom analogue photography to digital imaging in consumer photography.     

Designing trans-disciplinary research to support policy formulation for sustainable agricultural development

The article shows how existing multidisciplinary studies on sustainable agricultural development can be joined into a trans-disciplinary approach. Three interdisciplinary projects have been combined in a participatory discussion platform, in which researchers from different disciplines (economists, ecologists, social scientist and geographers) were brought together with a variety of stakeholders. The specific application of the developed method on agricultural development in Belgium, has revealed the need for crossing system boundaries within research, articulation of definitions on sustainable development, development of a coherent sustainability labelling policy and increasing the access to nation wide data both for researchers and policy makers.     

Assessing the appropriate grassroots technological innovation for sustainable development

ABSTRACT

Grassroots technological innovation (GRTI) is perceived as a source of sustainable development while addressing local problems and needs of people belonging to the bottom of the economic pyramid. The fostering of sustainable development develops a need for scientific evaluation and subsequent diffusion of GRTI to ameliorate the livelihood of grassroots communities. It is, hence, the purpose of this research to assess the relative performance of different GRTIs with respect to economic, social, and environmental benefits. The empirical data for this study comprised of 32 GRTIs from the three different rural non-farm sectors in the Indian context. Analytical hierarchy process is used for deducing the relative assessment of the selected GRTI against the aforementioned performance criteria. The findings of this study offer imperative insights into the field of technology diffusion and development at the grassroots level and suggest recommendations for sustainable policy formulation.     

走农业可持续发展之路--丽水市生态农业调查

1999年浙江省丽水地区(现为丽水市)被国家环保总局批准为全国第四个地区级生态示范区建设试点地区。本文在认真调研的基础上总结了近几年丽水生态农业的建设成效、存在问题,并提出了下一步发展思路和对策。     

浅析农家书屋的可持续发展

农家书屋历经5年,于2013年基本完成了书屋的建设工作,全国共建成标准书屋60多万个,基本实现了"农家书屋村村有"。然而,书屋建成后,其可持续发展问题却成为了一个亟待解决的难题。如何让这一民心工程真正发挥作用,如何让书屋在建成后活下去,如何不让书屋成为形式化的产物成为了许多人关注的焦点。因此,要根据农村的实际情况,从全局出发,从农民的需求出发,进一步挖掘农家书屋可持续发展存在的问题和对策。     

Applying agent-based modeling to the evolution of eco-industrial systems

Agent-based modeling is simply a modeling technique for describing complex adaptive systems in a form that can be solved by computers. In this paper, agent-based modeling is applied to eco-industrial systems to gain new insights into their behavior. The factory in the eco-industrial systems is taken as an agent, and the objects, attributes and behaviors are determined. Some important interaction mechanisms between agents are also designed. Besides, the sustainability evolution is also studied through emergy theory. More importantly, a new concept, the Internal-flow emergy, is used to indicate the evolution direction of an eco-industrial system. Finally, a hypothetical eco-industrial park utilizing natural gas and halite as the main raw material inputs is adopted as a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the agent-based modeling.     

On the relationship between population change and sustainable development

This paper investigates the relationship between population growth and economic growth, through the study of fertility choices and their effects on natural resources. It aims at analyzing the interactions between endogenous fertility choices and the environment and their link to the sustainable matter. We analyze a growth model driven by natural resources and without production, where agents have jointly to determine consumption and fertility, taking into account the effects of their decisions on the dynamics of natural resources. We adopt the most optimistic view on natural capital (it generates endogenous growth) and the weakest notion of sustainable paths (all variables are positive): in such a framework we expect that sustainable paths exist. We instead show that this is not always true. In fact, even if renewal capacity of natural resources is unbounded, not always can a sustainable path be found: this depends on the difference between the stationary fertility rate and the mortality rate. If the stationary fertility is lower than the mortality rate, a sustainable path will not be found, and in such a case public intervention is necessary in order to address the economy along a sustainable path. This can simply be done through policies affecting public attention to environmental protection or the intensity of the dilution effect.     

企业持续发展的绩效管理探讨

绩效管理注重组织目标和个人目标的一致性,通过提升个人绩效实现组织绩效的提高,对企业可持续发展具有重要意义。工作分析是绩效管理的基础,工作分析结果是实施绩效管理的依据;绩效考核是绩效管理的一个环节,科学的绩效考核是企业先进管理的重要手段;人力资源是企业持续发展的重要资源,有效的绩效管理可避免人才过度流失。     

The rising culture and worldview of contemporary spirituality: A sociological study of potentials and pitfalls for sustainable development

Several social scientists claim that the rise of the culture of contemporary spirituality is a pivotal part of the gradual but profound change taking place in the Western worldview, both reflecting the larger cultural development, as well as giving shape and direction to it. Its emergence is therefore not to be neglected in attempts to create a more sustainable society. The aim of this study is to generate insight into the culture and worldview of contemporary spirituality and explore its potentials and pitfalls for sustainable development. An investigation of the sociological literature on the so-called “New Age” phenomenon results in a delineation and overview of these and shows that this culture is both a potentially promising force, as well as a phenomenon posing specific risks. A structural-developmental understanding is introduced in order to be able to distinguish between regressive and progressive tendencies in this culture, and comprehend the deeper logic behind the observed potentials and pitfalls. This may serve to facilitate the actualization of the culture's potentials while mitigating its pitfalls, and in that way contribute to the timely challenge of creating a more sustainable society.