The Effect of the Common Bond and Membership Expansion on Credit Union Risk

This paper empirically examines differences in credit union risk profiles based on membership type and membership expansion via select employee groups (SEGs). We find that (1) occupational credit unions have a greater exposure to concentration risk, which they hedge by holding greater proportions of capital, (2) the presence of SEGs is negatively related to credit union capital ratios and positively related to loan–to–share ratios, and (3) the number of SEGs and the proportion of loan delinquencies are positively related. We conclude that credit union membership expansion results in reduced concentration risk and expanded investment opportunities, but also dilutes the informational advantages associated with tight common bonds.     

Scale Economies in Credit Unions: Accounting for Subsidies Is Important

In 1998, the Credit Union Services Corporation Australia Limited (CUSCAL) recommended that Australian credit unions with assets below $5 million should consider merging with larger credit unions. This industry position is at odds with empirical studies, which find little evidence of increasing returns to scale in credit unions. However, an important bias in previous studies of scale economies in credit unions has been the omission of credit union subsidies. This paper shows that the failure to account for subsidies biases the results toward finding diseconomies of scale. After correcting for the subsidy bias, there is very strong evidence of increasing returns to scale in a sample of New South Wales credit unions, supporting the industry recommendation.     

债券违约对流动性影响的传染效应研究

2014年以来我国信用债市场违约事件频发,信用风险的积聚可能引发债券市场流动性恶化。本文以2014―2019年交易所和银行间市场信用债为研究对象,实证考察违约事件对债券流动性影响的传染效应。研究发现:违约事件在同一发行主体的债券之间具有流动性传染效应,当公司的某期债券出现违约时,公司其他未到期债券的流动性水平显著下降;违约事件对同行业其他公司债券的流动性具有传染效应,当行业中出现债券违约事件时,行业内其他公司的债券流动性显著降低;违约事件爆发越密集或者违约事件越严重,对债券流动性的负面影响越大,而且民营企业债受到的影响要大于国有企业债,低信用等级债受到的影响要大于高信用等级债;在市场密集爆发违约事件或出现较为严重的违约事件时期,宏观流动性增加能够改善债券流动性。     

2013年中国债券市场发展报告

2013年中国债券市场收益率曲线平坦化上行,高评级信用利差收窄,信用债等级间利差拓宽。展望2014年,资金面仍将维持紧平衡,利率债供给压力将小幅增加,国债收益率曲线小幅陡峭化下移,下半年市场表现好于上半年;在信用债市场,随着下半年市场收益率水平下行和信用债供给的增加,高评级产品利差将会拓宽;中低评级债券受信用风险事件和交易所重启IPO影响,等级间利差也将拓宽。     

Board of directors characteristics and credit union financial performance: a pitch

This short paper applies the ‘pitching research’ template developed by Faff (2015) to an academic research topic in corporate governance of Australian credit unions, from an accounting discipline perspective. The pitch template identifies the core elements that form the framework of any research project.     

The Law of Proportionate Effect: The Growth of the UK Credit Union Movement at National and Regional Level

Abstract:   This study examines credit union size‐growth relationships within the context of Gibrat's law of proportionate effect. This relates to the hypothesis that the growth of each firm in each period is random. The analysis covers the period 1994 to 2000 and is undertaken separately for the United Kingdom (UK) and its regions, Northern Ireland, England & Wales and Scotland. Sample attrition is a characteristic of the data and to avoid the problem of survivorship bias the inverse of the Mill's ratio, obtained from a probit regression for surviving credit unions, is introduced into the estimating relationship. In terms of the empirical results, little evidence emerged to support the law of proportionate effect as a theoretical paradigm. Although not universal, three broad findings emerged. First, small credit unions on average grow faster than their larger counterparts, although there was also some evidence of non‐linearity in this relationship. Secondly, growth persistence pertained with credit unions which experienced above average growth (below average growth) in one period, experiencing above average growth (below average growth) in the next. Thirdly, variability of growth was not independent of size with the cross‐sectional variance of the error term inversely related to size suggesting that small credit unions have greater growth variability than larger ones.     

国外市政债券银行的运作及启示

市政债券是国外市政建设融资的重要方式。市政债券的参与可以增强债券信用等级、扩大发行规模,从而降低隔资成本。随着我国经济的发展、资本市场的深化、产业结构的调整,培育和发展我国的市政债券市场已经势在必行。     

县级农村信用合作联社改革成效及其影响探讨--基于泌阳县农村信用社2012年达标升级工作的案例分析

我国农村信用社改革的方向历经多年探索,在近年才逐渐得以明晰。基于对泌阳县农村信用社2012年达标升级工作的案例分析,对县级农村信用合作联社改革的经验进行归纳总结。在政府统一协调制订方案并强化落实的基础上,做好不良贷款清收、资产置换、增资扩股、财政扶持、固定资产确权等各项工作,能够使农村信用社有效推进达标升级,进而在特色信贷产品推广、扶植小微企业发展、拓展金融服务、履行社会责任等方面发挥积极作用。案例揭示的经验,对各地区进一步深化农村信用社改革有着积极的借鉴意义。     

2010年债券市场回顾与展望

2010年,中国经济保持了总体向好态势,宏观经济指标不断回暖,然而受下半年通胀预期不断增强的影响,货币政策由适度宽松逐渐向稳健回归,债券市场在流动性总体充足的背景下走出了先扬后抑的走势。全年债券发行规模稳步扩大,市场交易更加活跃,投资者类型更趋多元。展望2011年,随着债券市场产品创新的深入,以及市场制度和基础设施建设的不断完善,债券市场支持经济发展的作用将进一步增强。     

信用债违约特征与市场展望

从总量的角度来看,信用债违约主体数量呈现上升的趋势,违约主体的行业、地区分布相对较为分散,各主体的违约特征呈现多元化的趋势,受经济增速下行压力加大、民企再融资收紧、股票质押爆仓等因素的影响较为明显.结合微观企业违约的最新特点,在信用风险分析的过程中需要重点关注企业是否发生了投资激进、短债长投、公司治理风险、财务舞弊等问...     

PROFILING: A STRATEGY FOR SUCCESSFUL VOLUNTEER RECRUITMENT IN CREDIT UNIONS

Credit unions are non‐profit financial organisations that provide financial services to their members. They are located in 97 countries across the world. All credit unions are governed by a volunteer board and many are reliant on volunteers for all their labour requirements. However, recruiting volunteers is a problem. The literature on recruitment issues in volunteering in general, suggests that the not‐for‐profit sector looks to the private sector for guidance on recruitment policies and approaches. One such approach which is considered in this paper is ‘market segmentation’ wherein the potential volunteer body is profiled to determine if an individual is likely to volunteer and if they are, to identify the type of role they are most likely to be attracted to. Prior literature on volunteering in non‐profit organisations suggests that certain types of individual (dominant individuals) are more likely to volunteer. This paper investigates whether this dominant status profile is evident amongst volunteers in credit unions in Northern Ireland (NI). The study finds that people with dominant characteristics are more likely to be attracted to volunteering to the board of directors and individuals who have less dominant traits overall should be offered more social/participative type roles. This information can be used by credit union governing boards for volunteer recruitment, retention and management purposes.     

Assessing Credit Rating Agencies by Bond Issuers and Institutional Investors

We examine how a sample of publicly traded corporate bond issuers and institutional investors assess the four major nationally recognized rating agencies and their role in capital markets. The results show that issuers and investors differ dramatically in their assessments about rating agencies. Specifically, the majority of institutional investors require only one rating when they buy rated corporate bonds, but most issuers obtain two or more ratings. Issuers and investors also differ in their assessments about whether ratings accurately reflect creditworthiness and timeliness. The results suggest that differences reflect the different roles that rating agencies provide in the market place.     

担保债券违约相关系数求解模式及增信有效性

在《关于有效防范企业债担保风险的意见》(银监发〔2007〕75号)出台后,债券担保主体呈现多样化,担保债券发行人和担保人违约相关系数的求解成为债券信用评级的一大难题。本文给出了担保债券违约相关系数的求解模式,并探讨担保提高发行人债信等级的有效性。     

Determinants of Sovereign Eurobonds Yield Spread

We examine the determinants of sovereign Eurobond spread at issuance covering 1991–2000. The results of the regression models showed that yield spread increases with maturity, issue size and gross fees and decreases with credit rating and the number of managers. Higher‐grade issuers also pay a relatively higher spread to borrow long‐term funds and for smaller issues. The findings are consistent with the notion of a term structure 'liquidity premium.' Low‐grade issuers pay a higher spread than better‐rated countries. However, low‐grade countries pay high spread for larger funds. Credit rating is found to provide additional information in explaining the spread on sovereign Eurobonds beyond that provided by macroeconomic variables.     

Risk structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis for Deutschemark‐denominated bonds

This paper empirically studies the risk structure of interest rates for Deutschemark‐denominated bonds. For this purpose, we estimate term structures of interest rates using the parsimonious fitting function of Nelson and Siegel (1987) for virtually risk free Government bonds and five different rating categories classified by Moody's ratings (Aaa, Aa, A, Baa, Ba). The sample period covers the time interval from July 1990 to December 1996. We investigate the pricing errors resulting from our estimation procedure and analyse credit spreads over the term structure of Government bonds.     

我国货币政策中介目标作用机制的实证检验与比较

在不同时期,我国采用不同的货币数量指标作为货币政策的中介目标。该研究以货币经济理论为基础,运用计量经济方法,对自1992年以来货币政策的传导机制,以1998年为分界点进行了分时段比较分析。总体而言,在1997年底以前,信贷规模是货币政策的中介目标;1998年初以后,货币供应量M2则是中介目标,同时也是货币政策的操作目标。