The growth of US credit unions

The growth of US credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically, using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques. Univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts. On average credit unions with above-average growth in one period tended to experience below-average growth in the next. Smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones. While credit unions share a common co-operative philosophy, they differ in terms of age profile, scope for membership growth, charter type and financial structure and performance. In estimations of a multivariate growth model, most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size-growth relationship. While large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts, the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions. In general, if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones, they tended to do so for specific reasons: because their charters were less restrictive, because they were more efficient, or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth. Therefore credit union growth was not ‘random', but highly systematic.     

Can mergers ensure the survival of credit unions in the third millennium?

The survival of small financial institutions in the third millennium depends on their competitiveness against large bank rivals. Accordingly, credit unions in Australia and the United States have attempted to increase efficiency through mergers. Our paper uses the data envelopment analysis methodology to evaluate the post-merger gains in technical and scale efficiency achieved by 31 Australian credit union mergers in 1993/1994 and 1994/1995, relative to non-merging credit unions. When compared with the only US study of credit union mergers [Journal of Banking & Finance 23 (1999) 367–386], our findings suggests that mergers are not associated with improvements in efficiency superior to those achieved by internal growth.     

The Effect of the Common Bond and Membership Expansion on Credit Union Risk

This paper empirically examines differences in credit union risk profiles based on membership type and membership expansion via select employee groups (SEGs). We find that (1) occupational credit unions have a greater exposure to concentration risk, which they hedge by holding greater proportions of capital, (2) the presence of SEGs is negatively related to credit union capital ratios and positively related to loan–to–share ratios, and (3) the number of SEGs and the proportion of loan delinquencies are positively related. We conclude that credit union membership expansion results in reduced concentration risk and expanded investment opportunities, but also dilutes the informational advantages associated with tight common bonds.     

Board of directors characteristics and credit union financial performance: a pitch

This short paper applies the ‘pitching research’ template developed by Faff (2015) to an academic research topic in corporate governance of Australian credit unions, from an accounting discipline perspective. The pitch template identifies the core elements that form the framework of any research project.     

The effect of mergers on credit union performance

The motivation for mergers in the credit union industry differs from the commercial bank industry due to the lack of residual claimants to benefit from wealth gains. In the cooperative ownership environment of credit unions, the owners/members gain utility via the rates offered for loans and deposits. Credit union regulators also gain utility when mergers remove risky credit unions from the industry. We measure these utility gains using the event study method of Bauer [Bauer, K., 2008. Detecting abnormal credit union performance. Journal of Banking and Finance 32, 573–586] employing quadrant tests based on a multivariate test of equality of centroids. We find gains to the owners/members of the target credit union and to the regulators but not to the acquiring firm. We posit that the acquiring credit unions may encounter regulatory pressure to merge. In addition, the owners/members of the acquiring firm may avoid potential disutility in the cooperative insurance environment were the target firm allowed to fail.     

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.     

资本约束背景下定向降准对企业信贷的定向引导效果

2017年,央行将普惠金融和定向降准相结合,定向降准能否精准引流决定着政策的成败。基于上市公司2011年至2019年的面板数据,采用双重差分法检验定向降准是否能够实现其政策目标,定向向三农和小微企业引导信贷资源,并用三重差分法引入资本约束这一调节变量,检验资本约束的增强是否对定向降准的实施效果有影响。结果表明:定向降准能够达到政策目标,增加三农和小微企业可获得的信贷资源,此外资本约束对定向降准的实施效果无显著影响。     

论无船承运人的信用风险及其规避方法

无船承运业务经营者,又名无船承运人(NVOCC),是国际货运代理经营者之一。无船承运人具有承运人和托运人双重身份,这使得其在整个操作流程中,包括合同的签订、单证的制作、费用的收付等方面都存在信用风险。明确自身的信用风险,研究规避风险的方法对规范无船承运人的操作,对降低无船承运人的经营成本具有重要意义。目前业界对无船承运人信用风险的研究还较少,本文试从无船承运人的角度来论述自身面对的信用风险及探讨其在业务流程中规避风险的方法。     

Credit Union Governance and Survival of the Cooperative Form

Credit unions are cooperative financial institutions that typically operate on a one-member/one-vote governance rule. This paper demonstrates that such a governance rule may enhance the survival of such organizational forms in the face of adverse incentives created by accumulated financial surpluses and identifies factors that may prompt conversion to a joint-stock form. The analysis is based on noting that current members collectively have inherited accumulated surpluses of the cooperative from past members. Older members have an incentive to extract maximum personal private benefit from that inheritance by voting to convert from a cooperative to a joint stock company, even though such an outcome may be socially suboptimal. A simple overlapping generations model is used to develop a sustainability constraint, which must be met if conversion is not to occur and examine how a one-member/one-vote governance rule contributes to the survival of the institution in a cooperative form.     

国外市政债券银行的运作及启示

市政债券是国外市政建设融资的重要方式。市政债券的参与可以增强债券信用等级、扩大发行规模,从而降低隔资成本。随着我国经济的发展、资本市场的深化、产业结构的调整,培育和发展我国的市政债券市场已经势在必行。     

债券违约对流动性影响的传染效应研究

2014年以来我国信用债市场违约事件频发,信用风险的积聚可能引发债券市场流动性恶化。本文以2014―2019年交易所和银行间市场信用债为研究对象,实证考察违约事件对债券流动性影响的传染效应。研究发现:违约事件在同一发行主体的债券之间具有流动性传染效应,当公司的某期债券出现违约时,公司其他未到期债券的流动性水平显著下降;违约事件对同行业其他公司债券的流动性具有传染效应,当行业中出现债券违约事件时,行业内其他公司的债券流动性显著降低;违约事件爆发越密集或者违约事件越严重,对债券流动性的负面影响越大,而且民营企业债受到的影响要大于国有企业债,低信用等级债受到的影响要大于高信用等级债;在市场密集爆发违约事件或出现较为严重的违约事件时期,宏观流动性增加能够改善债券流动性。     

中国金融市场信用风险模型研究与应用

文章运用中国金融市场和原银行信贷登记系统数据及人民银行组织的信用评级等数据资源,在金融工程理论和技术方法创新的基础上,借鉴国际信用风险模型中违约模式代表——KMV模型原理,实证建立由判别函数和违约强度共同构成的中国金融市场违约预警模型;借鉴国际信用风险模型中盯市模式代表——CreditMetrics模型原理,使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法实证建立中国金融市场信用组合计量模型;探索这两类模型在中国信贷市场、外汇市场、货币市场和债券市场风险管理实务中的应用;并在此基础上提出了政策性建议。     

A re-examination of the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields

In this article we re-examine the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields using a two-step model. In the first step, we adopt an ordered probit technique to obtain consistent estimates of state bond default risk. In the second step, we estimate state bond risk premiums using a regression analysis with a categorized risk variable obtained from the first step. Similar to Terza (1987) and Hsiao (1983), the model involves a categorized ordinal explanatory (rating) variable. However, our two-step model deals with a case where category thresholds are unknown and dependent on economic factors. The model provides consistent estimates for the effects of ratings and economic factors on state bond yields. Contrary to previous findings, we find that state bond yields are mainly affected by fundamental economic variables.     

新时期民间借贷的功能定位及实践模式——基于河南省省情的思考

新时期随着我国中部地区的快速发展和东部地区产业结构的升级,河南省区域经济发展在未来几年内将面临新的契机。随着国家新一轮紧缩性货币政策的出台以及未来沿海中小企业逐步向该省梯度转移,现有资金融通渠道对河南省区域经济发展带动能力不足,其作用及影响难以持续性满足未来河南省投融资的总体需求。新时期如何认识这种民间借贷形式,以及如何合理引导它的资金融通功能,进而培育多层次的金融市场,拓宽河南省区域经济发展中的资金融通渠道以满足本地企业与沿海转移企业的协调发展,成为我们需要认真面对的课题。     

ESG in credit ratings and the impact on financial markets

This study examines environment, social, governance (ESG) consideration in rating reports published by credit rating agencies. 3,719 Moody's credit rating reports between 2004 and 2015 are examined and the ESG consideration is analyzed using a latent dirichlet allocation (LDA) approach. We further analyze the stock returns and credit default swap (CDS) spread changes to check whether ESG consideration has an effect on the capital market reactions. We find a small but present consideration of ESG in rating decisions. Within ESG, corporate governance plays the most important role. Moreover, the results reveal that ESG consideration is a significant determinant in the stock return and CDS spread around the rating announcement. We find that all ESG criteria are important for equity and debt investors.     

Trust and the provision of trade credit

State-controlled listed firms in China receive preferential treatment when borrowing from commercial banks; in contrast, private controlled firms rely on informal finance and on trade credit. We argue for and find evidence that private firms located in higher social trust regions use more trade credit from suppliers, extend more trade credit to customers, and collect receivables and pay payables more quickly. These findings are enhanced for firms located in provinces with weak protection of property rights. Our results are robust to different measures of social trust, legal environment, and endogeneity. Overall, our results show that social trust helps private firms overcome institutional difficulties in financing their activities.     

The information content of three credit ratings: the case of European residential mortgage-backed securities

We assess the information content of three credit ratings for tranches of newly issued European residential mortgage-backed securities. We find that tranches rated by three credit rating agencies where the rating by Standard & Poor's (S&P's) Ratings Service or Fitch is inferior to Moody's lead to higher funding costs and reflects what we refer to as rating risk. Our results suggest that market participants do not view credit ratings by Fitch and S&P's as redundant despite the fact that both employ the same rating approach.     

基于KMV模型的中国短期融资券信用风险评级研究

针对短期融资券主体信用评级未能完全准确地反映出短期融资券信用风险的问题,本文引入信用风险计量的KMV模型,运用Matlab软件计算出短期融资券的违约距离,按照违约距离的大小通过聚类分析将样本划分为六组。在此基础上,以信用利差表示投资者对短期融资券信用风险的认可,将各组信用利差与其违约距离对应起来,对各组的信用利差进行方差分析,结果显示各组之间的差异非常显著,表明分组状况比较理想,按违约距离判断短期融资券的信用风险是合适的,实现了对短期融资券的信用风险评级。     

管理自由化与信贷市场的脆弱性--对工商银行股改后推进信贷管理精细化和科学化的思考

本文结合工商银行信贷管理现状,针对现阶段信贷管理风险意识淡化、制度约束弱化、贷款管理行为随意化及监管弹性化等自由化的诸多表现形式,将推进信贷管理精细化和科学化的思路概括为“培养一支队伍、重点完善两个办法、把好五个关口”,即构建风险信贷文化,打造信贷核心竞争力,培养一支高水平的专业技术人才队伍;健全激励机制和责任追究制度,重点建立和完善《信贷从业人员考核管理办法》和《不良信贷资产责任认定管理办法》;进一步优化信贷业务流程,把好贷前调查关口、贷款审批关口、贷款发放关口、贷后管理关口及信贷管理监督关口。     

The Law of Proportionate Effect: The Growth of the UK Credit Union Movement at National and Regional Level

Abstract:   This study examines credit union size‐growth relationships within the context of Gibrat's law of proportionate effect. This relates to the hypothesis that the growth of each firm in each period is random. The analysis covers the period 1994 to 2000 and is undertaken separately for the United Kingdom (UK) and its regions, Northern Ireland, England & Wales and Scotland. Sample attrition is a characteristic of the data and to avoid the problem of survivorship bias the inverse of the Mill's ratio, obtained from a probit regression for surviving credit unions, is introduced into the estimating relationship. In terms of the empirical results, little evidence emerged to support the law of proportionate effect as a theoretical paradigm. Although not universal, three broad findings emerged. First, small credit unions on average grow faster than their larger counterparts, although there was also some evidence of non‐linearity in this relationship. Secondly, growth persistence pertained with credit unions which experienced above average growth (below average growth) in one period, experiencing above average growth (below average growth) in the next. Thirdly, variability of growth was not independent of size with the cross‐sectional variance of the error term inversely related to size suggesting that small credit unions have greater growth variability than larger ones.