Accounting for Infrastructure Service Delivery by Government: Generational Issues

Infrastructure service provision by government creates huge distributional issues about service availability and performance over time and the relative funding burdens borne by successive generations of consumers across time. But providing financial disclosure on these issues through inter-generational accounting pre-supposes that accounting measurement is both generationally neutral (temporal neutrality) and does not legitimate any particular pattern of distribution. At the very least, accounting measurements of service provision costs should possess the attribute of distributional fairness. They should not bias the inter-generational allocation of cost or funding burdens. We argue that the forced application of inappropriate commercial accounting concepts of asset valuation, depreciation and capital maintenance does produce significant generational bias. More flexibility is required to produce the necessary accounting measurement attributes for financial disclosure on whether government has discharged its continuing accountability for inter-generational equity in burden sharing. We discuss three conceptual issues and illustrate the need for flexibility by proposing an alternative 'flow of obligations' approach which does not require reference to valuations of community service resources or arbitrary cost allocations under depreciation.     

GASB Statement No. 34:Research Opportunities

This article describes researchable issues arising from GASB Statement No. 34 , prescribing a new government reporting model. An overview of that statement is followed by a discussion of two researchable issues, detailing research questions, relevant methodology, and expected contributions. Remaining topics are described, with comment on that method most likely to lend insight. Colleagues are encouraged to commit to answering the questions posed, particularly those critically dependent on research being conducted during the implementation phase. Insights can be gained in such important conceptual and applied areas as valuation, aggregation, allocation, incentives, budgeting, inter-generational equity, users' understanding, independence, and cost/benefit tradeoffs.     

隔代照料对老年人健康状况的影响——基于CHARLS的实证研究

"421"型家庭结构的涌现和人口老龄化进程的加快使隔代照料成为目前我国家庭照料的一种重要形式。但是作为隔代照料提供者的老年人,他们的健康状况却经常被忽视。本文试图通过使用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,运用STATA数据分析方法,研究提供隔代照料与不提供隔代照料的老年人在日常活动能力障碍、自评健康状况和心理健康状况三方面的不同。研究结果发现,提供隔代照料对老年人的日常活动能力障碍、自评健康状况、心理健康状况三方面均产生了负面影响。     

The potential of integrated reporting to enhance sustainability reporting in the public sector

This paper examines the influence of integrated reporting (IR) on the sustainability reporting practices of a state-owned enterprise through a content analysis of their reports and interviews with report preparers. The findings show a steady increase in the quantity and quality of sustainability disclosures. In 2012, the organization chose to adopt the IR framework in order to enhance sustainability reporting for all stakeholders. The IR process resulted in a more balanced disclosure of material aspects of sustainability. However, while IR has the potential to enhance public sector sustainability reporting, inter-generational equity issues were ignored.     

Displacement risk and asset returns

We study asset-pricing implications of innovation in a general-equilibrium overlapping-generations economy. Innovation increases the competitive pressure on existing firms and workers, reducing the profits of existing firms and eroding the human capital of older workers. Due to the lack of inter-generational risk sharing, innovation creates a systematic risk factor, which we call “displacement risk.” This risk helps explain several empirical patterns, including the existence of the growth-value factor in returns, the value premium, and the high equity premium. We assess the magnitude of displacement risk using estimates of inter-cohort consumption differences across households and find support for the model.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度改革的收入再分配效应

论文采用精算方法,选择终身净转移额和内部收益率两大指标,从全国和地区两个层面,定量分析了机关事业单位养老保险制度改革的代内再分配效应和代际再分配效应。研究结果表明:养老保险制度改革对城镇职工、其他制度模式下的参保群体、不同地区、代与代之间的收入再分配效应,主要取决于工资增长率和利率的动态组合,新制度既可以发挥正向的代内再分配效应和代际再分配效应,也可能会引起代内不公平和代际不公平,而且再分配效应会随缴费年限增加而增强。     

Equity market timing and capital structure: International evidence

We investigate the equity market timing hypothesis of capital structure in major industrialized (G-7) countries. As claimed by its proponents, we find that leverage of firms is negatively related to the historical market-to-book ratio in all G-7 countries. However, this negative relationship cannot be attributed to equity market timing. We find no association between equity issues and market-to-book ratios at the time of equity financing decisions by Japanese firms. Firms in all G-7 countries, except Japan, undo the effect of equity issuance and the impact of equity market timing attempts on leverage is short lived. This is inconsistent with the prediction of the equity market timing hypothesis and more in line with dynamic trade-off model.     

Banks as lenders and shareholders: Evidence from Japan

This paper examines the effects of the main bank's equity–debt structure, (i.e., equity stakes and debt claims) on firm performance and financial policies in Japan over the period 1977–1987. Results show that firms with main bank equity stakes have lower performance than those without. However, among firms with main bank equity stakes, the equity–debt structure of claims has a positive effect on firm performance. The positive effect of the main bank's equity–debt structure is found to be greater in group-affiliated firms than in independent firms. The main bank maximizes its own interests by charging a higher interest rate when its equity stakes are relatively less than its debt claims and by prompting firms to pay more dividends when its equity stakes are relatively high.     

Implied Equity Duration: A New Measure of Equity Risk

Duration is an important and well-established risk characteristic for fixed income securities. We use recent developments in financial statement analysis research to construct a measure of duration for equity securities. We find that the standard empirical predictions and results for fixed income securities extend to equity securities. We show that stock price volatility and stock beta are both positively correlated with equity duration. Moreover, estimates of common shocks to expected equity returns extracted using our measure of equity duration capture a strong common factor in stock returns. Additional analysis shows that the book-to-market ratio provides a crude measure of equity duration and that our more refined measure of equity duration subsumes the Fama and French (1993) book-to-market factor in stock returns. Our research shows how structured financial statement analysis can be used to construct superior measures of equity security risk.     

Optimal financial contracting: dept versus outside equity

This article presents a theory of outside equity based on thecontrol rights and the maturity design of equity. I show thatoutside equity is a tacit agreement between investors and managementsupported by the equity-holders' right to dismiss managementregardless of performance and by the lack of a prespecifiedexpiration date on equity. As a tacit agreement outside equityis sustainable despite management's potential for manipulatingthe cash flows and regardless of how costly it is for equityholders to establish a case against managerial wrongdoing. Iestablish that the only outside equity that investors are willingto hold in equilibrium is that with unlimited life, the veryoutside equity that corporations issue. Consistent with empiricalevidence, this model predicts that debt-equity ratios are higher(lower) in industries with low (high) cash flow variability     

Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk

Implied equity duration was originally developed to analyze the sensitivity of equity prices to discount rate changes. We demonstrate that implied equity duration is also useful for analyzing the sensitivity of equity prices to pandemic shutdowns. Pandemic shutdowns primarily impact short‐term cash flows, thus they have a greater impact on low‐duration equities. We show that implied equity duration has a strong positive relation to U.S. equity returns and analyst forecast revisions during the onset of the 2020 COVID‐19 shutdown. Our analysis also demonstrates that the underperformance of “value” stocks during this period is a rational response to their lower durations.     

Equity accounting adoption in regulated and unregulated settings: an empirical study

This article examines equity accounting adoption by Australian companies before and after standard AAS 14 (1984), the first standard on equity accounting in Australia. To bypass a legal constraint, AAS 14 and its successor ASRB 1016 (1989) required that equity accounting of associates appear in supplementary disclosures (third-column or footnote) and not in consolidated accounts. Before AAS 14, extensive voluntary adoption of equity accounting occurred in consolidated accounts. Equity accounting adopters from 1971 to 1989 were matched in their adoption years with companies that could have used equity accounting but did not. Throughout, equity accounting adopters' EPS tended to be declining and equity accounting adoption tended to increase reported earnings. After AAS 14, adopters showed equity accounting via a third column if it increased reported earnings but in footnote disclosures if it reduced reported earnings. Leverage is associated with adoption before but not after AAS 14, perhaps because the standards required equity accounting in supplementary disclosures which had no impact on borrowing constraints, while no such restriction on equity accounting existed before regulation. Pre-AAS14 adopters tended not to be audited by large audit firms. Adopters after AAS 14 had higher ratios of investments in associates to total tangible assets; before AAS 14 they did not. The results are consistent with equity accounting being adopted opportunistically; there is limited evidence to support contractual efficiency motives.     

ESTIMATING THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM AND EQUITY COSTS: NEW WAYS OF LOOKING AT OLD DATA

This article examines three alternative ways of estimating the expected return on the equity market in using the CAPM or some other risk premium model. The three techniques are (1) direct estimation of the average nominal equity return for use as a forecast nominal equity return; (2) estimation of the average real equity return, which can then be added to a forecast inflation rate; and (3) estimation of an average equity risk premium, which is then added to a current risk-free rate. Ibbotson and Sinquefeld's data on annual holding period returns are used to test the validity of their assumption that the equity risk premium follows a random walk and that the third of these approaches is thus the best method.
The paper reaches three major conclusions. First, each of these three techniques involves a "bias" of some kind. The use of average equity returns as a forecast is subject to "risk-free rate" and "inflation rate" biases, while the use of an average equity risk premium is subject to a "term premium" bias. As a result, only the data can tell us which approach is best. Second, from analyzing equity and bond return data and the trend in interest rates, the author concludes that the term premium bias when using average historic equity risk premium is by far the largest of the three sources of bias. Indeed, the popular practice of adding an historic average equity risk premium to the 30-year Treasury bond rate significantly overstates equity costs. Third, after examining equity rates of return back to 1871, the author concludes that the real equity return seems to follow a process that is close to a random walk and is thus the "best" of the three techniques to use as a "naive" forecast.     

International investment patterns: Evidence using a new dataset

This paper examines the bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across a set of countries using International Monetary Fund's new dataset on international equity holdings at the end of 1997, 2001 and 2002.The paper finds that the bilateral equity investment is strongly correlated with the underlying patterns of trade in goods and services. The information asymmetries and cultural-institutional proximity are important for bilateral equity investment. The size of domestic stock market is the key correlate of aggregate foreign portfolio equity asset and liability holdings. The scale of aggregate foreign equity asset holdings is larger for countries having high income per capita.     

股权制衡对上市公司绩效的非线性影响——基于股权制衡度的新测算

测算股权制衡度时不考虑股东间的关联关系可能引致偏差。鉴此,重新测算了股权制衡度,以2003~2013年927家 A 股主板上市公司为样本研究其与公司绩效的关系。结果表明：“新股权制衡度”与公司绩效为非线性的 U 型关系,而“旧股权制衡度”与公司绩效为线性关系;[1,2]为股权制衡度对公司绩效影响的灰色区间;股权制衡度与公司绩效的关系受股东持股模式和外部环境影响。研究结果支持条件有效论,适度的股权制衡才能发挥积极作用。     

The growth in equity market size and trading activity: An international study

This paper presents new evidence on the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors in equity market development and on the sources of equity market growth. Using panel data on 33 countries, I find that development of financial intermediaries and trade openness are positively associated with equity market size, and that development of financial intermediaries is also positively associated with the level of activity in equity markets. Government consumption is negatively associated with equity market activity. I construct a direct estimate of the effect of institutional factors on equity market development that compares a country's actual level of development to a hypothetical “best-practice” country having the same macroeconomic fundamentals as the original country. I show that the level of equity market development of an average country is around 30% below its maximum potential. There are wide differences in institutional characteristics across countries and over time, and Canada, the United States, and Singapore possess the most shareholder-friendly institutional frameworks that foster larger and more active equity markets. It appears that institutional improvements and changes in financial technology have provided the major impetus for the phenomenal expansion of global equity markets.     

Small Business Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Business Credit Card Securitization Market

We present a new approach for estimating small business equity returns. This approach applies the Merton (1974) credit model to the returns on entrepreneurial business credit card debt securitizations and solves for the implied equity returns for the small businesses owned by the cardholders. The estimated small business equity premium is 10.74%. The standard deviation of small business equity returns is 56.37%. We validate the methodology by applying it to investment-grade corporate bonds and recovering a public equity premium of 6.17%.     

Shadow price of equity and political connectedness: A study of Chinese commercial banks

This study estimates the shadow price of equity capital applying a directional distance function for Chinese commercial banks. Using an unbalanced panel of 746 observations from 2013 to 2019, we find that the average shadow price of equity in the Chinese banking system is 2.94%. Moreover, in our sample, the price of equity of most banks is lower than that of deposits, suggesting that the majority of sampled banks are underleveraged during the study period. We also find that politically connected banks have higher prices of equity than their non-politically connected counterparts, and that the price of equity is positively related to ownership concentration. Furthermore, large politically related banks tend to have lower shadow prices of equity than large non-politically related banks, although large banks usually have higher prices of equity than small banks.     

Great expectations: Banks as equity underwriters

We examine the in-roads commercial banks have made into equity underwriting over 1990–2002. While banks end the period handling upwards of 25% of equity underwriting, this increase results almost exclusively from acquisitions of investment banks with an already established market share of equity underwriting. We find a significant decline in the market share of equity underwriting that banks acquired in the post-merger period, a decline that is larger than that experienced by independent investment banks of comparable reputation. Banks lose market share because they originate fewer IPOs and their IPOs have a lower incidence of follow-on SEOs compared to independent investment banks. Following the merger, banks experience a large fall off in their ability to retain follow-on SEOs and are less successful in winning SEO mandates when an issuer switches from its IPO underwriter. Overall, the findings suggest it has been difficult for banks to achieve scope economies in equity underwriting.     

Private equity bids in Australia: an exploratory study

In this study, we provide an insight into how private equity players choose their targets and the bid arrangements they prefer. We test our expectations of the unique features of private equity targets using a sample of 23 listed private equity target firms during 2001–2007. We find, relative to a benchmark sample of 81 corporate targets matched by year and industry, the private equity target firms to be larger, more profitable, use their assets more efficiently, more highly levered and have greater cash flow. Multivariate testing indicates that private equity targets have relatively greater financial slack, greater financial stability, greater free cash flow and lower measurable growth prospects. All conclusions are found to be robust to a control sample of 502 takeover bids during 2001–2007.