A monotonically converging algorithm for the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-markov risk model

This paper deals with the severity of ruin in a discrete semi-Markov risk model. It is shown that the work of Reinhard and Snoussi (Stochastic Models, 18) can be extended to cover the case where the premium is an integer value and no restriction on the annual result is imposed. In particular, it is shown that the severity of ruin without initial surplus is solution of a system of equations. It can be obtained by a monotonically converging algorithm when the claims are bounded.     

Commentary: Business Black Swans and the Use and Abuse of a Notion

Historical enquiry reveals how ideas mutate. This paper traces how ideas and practices underpinning initial understandings of fair value accounting (FVA) have changed as the concept drifted from the utility rate‐setting context to that of corporate financial reporting. The recall of history for the purpose of ‘learning lessons from the past’ has frequently resulted in misunderstandings of the historical record and misapplication of so‐called lessons. A more fruitful approach to recalling history is to gain insights into the development of the ideas (good and bad) that have contributed to current predicaments. Initially fair value was the basis for specific pricing calculations related to companies with a highly restricted scope of operations. Later, more by accident than design, the concept became a general purpose application used in the financial statements of highly and freely adaptive companies. The mark‐to‐market (MtM) dispute emerging in the global financial crisis (GFC) has given rise to a further mutation of the use of FVA. Discarding MtM contradicts what history tells us was the purpose of adopting fair value into accounting for adaptive companies. This analysis also highlights how conducive accounting theory and practice are subject to politicisation. Accounting is an apparently unresisting victim of interested parties’ special pleading, resulting in the corruption of its technical function – in this case primarily because it is inconvenient to have accounting data tell it how it is.     

Financing a Portfolio of Projects

This article shows that investors financing a portfolio of projectsmay use the depth of their financial pockets to overcome entrepreneurialincentive problems. Competition for scarce informed capitalat the refinancing stage strengthens investors' bargaining positions.And yet, entrepreneurs' incentives may be improved, becauseprojects funded by investors with "shallow pockets" must havenot only a positive net present value at the refinancing stage,but one that is higher than that of competing portfolio projects.Our article may help understand provisions used in venture capitalfinance that limit a fund'sinitial capital and make it difficultto add more capital once the initial venture capital fund israised.     

Inflation and Capital Budgeting Decisions: a Comment

F. M. Wilkes has argued that unadjusted cash flows and monetary opportunity costs be used when evaluating capital projects in an inflationary environment (Journal of Business Finance, Volume 4, No. 3). His conclusions are, however, that alternative approaches to net present value are probably necessary, This note examines Wilkes' analysis and argues that his initial model, using net present value techniques, is acceptable in practice on the adoption of fairly conventional assumptions.     

Portfolio optimization with a defaultable security

In this paper we derive a closed-form solution for a representative investor who optimally allocates her wealth among the following securities: a credit-risky asset, a default-free bank account, and a stock. Although the inclusion of a credit-related financial product in the portfolio selection is more realistic, no closed-form solutions to date are given in the literature when a recovery value is considered in the event of a default. While most authors have assumed some recovery scheme in their initial model set up, they do not address the portfolio problem with a recovery when a default actually occurs. Given the tractability of the recovery of market value, we solved the optimal portfolio problem for the representative investor whose utility function is a Constant Relative Risk Aversion utility function. We find that the investor will allocate larger fraction of wealth to the defaultable security as long as the default-event risk is priced. These results are very intuitive and reasonable since it indicates that if the default risk premium is not priced properly the investor purchases less defaultable securities.     

Optimal design of derivatives in illiquid markets*

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal structure of derivatives written on an illiquid asset, such as a catastrophic or a weather event. This transaction involves two agents: a bank which wants to hedge its initial exposure towards this illiquid asset and an investor which may buy the contract. Both agents also have the opportunity to invest their residual wealth on a financial market.

Based on a utility maximization point of view, we determine an optimal profile (and its value) such that it maximizes the bank's utility given that the investor decides to make the deal only if it increases its utility. In the case of exponential utility, we show that the pricing rule is a non-linear function of the structure and that the bank always transfers the same proportion of its initial exposure. In the general case, an additional term appears, depending only on the relative log-likelihood of the two agents' views of the distribution of the illiquid asset.     

The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as a Policy Tool

The premise of the paper is that the fervor for foreign exchange market intervention by U.S, and European monetary authorities has ebbed in recent years. A pattern of initial belief in the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention has recently been eroded, as is revealed by the absence of intervention in circumstances that in earlier times would have invoked it. Only the Bank of Japan among central banks of the developed world has not thusfar abandoned its faith that intervention can change the relative value of the yen as determined by market forces to conform with its notion of what that value should be. To explain why U.S. and European monetary authorities no longer believe that intervention is a tool that works, I review the equivocal record of past episodes, the inconclusive results of empirical research, and the problems of implementation that intervention advocates ignore.     

Mortality Risk and the Value of a Statistical Life: The Dead-Anyway Effect Revis(it)ed

In the expected-utility theory of the monetary value of a statistical life, a well-known result found by Pratt and Zeckhauser [1996] asserts that an individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a marginal reduction in mortality risk increases with the initial level of risk. Their reasoning is based on the so-called “dead-anyway effect” which states that marginal utility of a dollar in the state of death is smaller than in the state of survival. However, this explanation is based on the absence of markets for contingent claims, i.e. annuities and life insurance. This paper reexamines the relationship between WTP and the level of risk under more general circumstances and establishes two main results: first, when insurance markets are perfect, for a risk-averse individual without a bequest motive, marginal WTP for survival does increase with the level of risk but this occurs for a different reason, namely an income effect. Secondly, when the individual has a bequest motive and is endowed with a sufficient amount of wealth from human capital, the effect of initial risk on WTP for survival is reversed: the higher initial risk the lower the value of a statistical life. In the imperfect-markets case we interpret this result as a “constrained-bequest effect”.JEL Classification No.: D8, H43, I18     

Assets in Place, Growth Opportunities, and IPO Returns

We consider a simple model positing that initial public offering price is equal to the present value of an entity's assets in place and growth opportunities. The model predicts that initial return is positively related to both the size and risk of growth opportunities. Consistent with this prediction, we find initial return to be positively related to both the fraction of the offer price that is accounted for by the present value of growth opportunities and various proxies of issue uncertainty. We also find that IPO investors equate one dollar of growth opportunities to approximately three quarters of tangible assets.     

Deprival value and fair value: a reinterpretation and a reconciliation

Measurement is an important current issue for financial accounting standard-setters. Current values are increasingly replacing historical cost measures, but an important unresolved issue is the precise form that current value should take. In this paper two alternative measurement bases that have appeared in accounting standards. Deprivai Value (sometimes called Value to the Business) and Fair Value, are explained and compared. They are then reconciled by making the following three adjustments to their conventional definitions.

(1) In the case of Deprival Value, situations in which net realisable value exceeds replacement cost imply that there is a profitable redevelopment or redeployment opportunity, so that net realisable value is regarded as the appropriate measure of Deprivai Value.

(2) In the case of Fair Value, transactions costs (including installation and removal costs) are added to acquisition values and deducted from disposal values.

(3) In the case of Fair Value, it is assumed that net realisable value represents the ‘highest and best use’, except when it is exceeded by both replacement cost and value in use. In the latter case, ‘highest and best use’ (and therefore Fair Value) is inferred by assuming profit-maximising behaviour by the owner.

It is suggested that the resulting synthesis represents a method of current valuation which is consistent with the objective of measuring the asset in terms of the economic opportunities that are available to its current owner in the condition and location in which it is currently to be found.     

Underpricing and Ex Post Value Uncertainty

As documented by a vast empirical literature, initial public offerings (IPOs) are characterized by underpricing. A number of papers have shown that underpricing is directly related to the amount of ex ante uncertainty concerning the IPOs valuation. Recent theoretical papers propose that not all value uncertainty is resolved prior to the start of trading, but rather continues to be resolved in the beginning of the after market. We term this type of uncertainty as ex post value uncertainty and develop proxies for it. We find strong support for the existence of ex post value uncertainty and find that including a proxy for it more than doubles the explanatory power of previous models.     

IPO initial returns in China: Underpricing or overvaluation?

This paper separates the amount of IPO underpricing(primary market underpricing) and overvaluation(secondary market overvaluation) from the value of an IPO's initial return to evaluate the relative importance of these two factors and their main determinants. Using data on the IPOs of 948 Chinese firms, we find that average initial returns are 66% and that underpricing and overvaluation are between 14–22% and 44–53%, respectively, depending on the method used to assess firms' intrinsic values. In addition, while both the value of the initial return and the extent of overvaluation are significantly negatively related to post-IPO long-run stock performance, overvaluation can predict post-IPO performance better than the value of the initial return. Value uncertainty in IPOs is positively related to both underpricing and overvaluation, and both the underwriter's reputation and the existence of pricing regulation are positively related to underpricing. Investor sentiment has a positive effect on overvaluation but has no effect or a negative effect on underpricing. Overall, our results suggest that in China overvaluation accounts for a larger proportion of the initial return than underpricing,and that underpricing and overvaluation have different determinants.     

The effects of corporate governance and audit and non-audit fees on IPO Value

This paper examines the effects of non-executive board members, audit committee composition and financial expertise, and fees paid to audit firms on the value of 375 UK initial public offerings (IPOs). Empirical findings show that underpricing decreases in audit fees whereas it increases in non-audit fees. A higher proportion of non-executive directors on the firm’s board and audit committees with a higher proportion of non-executive directors and financial accounting expertise of their members positively moderate the inter-relationships between underpricing and both audit and non-audit fees paid by companies going through an IPO. Further investigations using the adjusted price-to-book value as a proxy for firm value at IPO confirm our main findings that internal governance mechanisms may complement services provided by the auditors in terms of generating higher valuations. Controlling for the simultaneous determination of audit and non-audit fees, our results remain consistent.     

The impact of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt

Extant literature provides conflicting results with respect to the usefulness and accuracy of analysts' operating cash flow forecasts. Our study empirically examines the importance and influence of meeting or beating analysts' operating cash flow forecasts on a firm's cost of debt. Results indicate that firms meeting/beating analysts' cash flow forecasts have higher initial bond ratings as well as lower initial bond yields. Additionally, based upon an analysis of rating changes, firms meeting or beating cash flow forecasts have a higher probability of receiving a debt rating upgrade and a lower probability of a ratings downgrade compared to firms missing cash flow forecasts. A direct comparison of the importance of meeting/beating cash flow versus earnings benchmarks indicates that debt market participants appear to incrementally value both types of forecasts, and contrary to selected equity market findings, neither forecast subsumes the other for debt market participants.     

Sunk costs and sunk benefits: A re-examination of re-investment decisions

Prior experimental studies supporting the prospect theory explanation of the sunk-cost effect manipulate the framing of the initial investment, describing it either in neutral terms or as a prior loss. This paper subjects the prospect theory explanation to further examination, but takes an alternative experimental approach based on the differential risk taking behaviour predicted by prospect theory’s S-shaped value function. The experiments manipulate whether an initial investment produces a sunk cost (prior loss) or a sunk benefit (prior gain) and investigate the impact of this on the likelihood of authorising an incremental investment held constant across treatment conditions. To ensure the results are robust to the type of incremental investment, two experiments are conducted across which the outcomes of the incremental investment are manipulated to produce poor or good investment opportunities. In all cases the results fail to support a higher likelihood of authorising the incremental investment following a sunk cost than a sunk benefit. In isolation, therefore, prospect theory is unable to explain fully the sunk-cost effect.     

How Much Does Expertise Reduce Behavioral Biases? The Case of Anchoring Effects in Stock Return Estimates

We use data from surveys involving 300 Scandinavian financial market professionals and 213 university students to conduct three controlled experiments in which we manipulate the background information given to subjects. We find a very large anchoring effect in the students' long-term stock return expectations, that is, their estimates are influenced by an initial starting value. Professionals show a much smaller anchoring effect, but it nevertheless remains statistically and economically significant, even when we restrict the sample to more experienced professionals. We also find that the professionals are not conscious of the impact of historical returns on their expectations.     

Unifying Rule Induction and Rule Refinement—Towards Discovering Anomaly from Granville's Law in a Stock Market Technical Analysis

This paper discusses a framework for refining an initial object-level rule base with a rule induction to learn meta-level rules which find a data set applicable to an object-level rule. A rule induction process such as ID3 tries to learn meta-level rules and classifies given training data sets into positive data sets and negative ones. The rule refinement process tries to refine an initial object-level rule base on classified data sets by using four refinement strategies. Unifying these two processes, one can obtain a refined object-level rule base with high performance where a meta-level rule selects a data set applicable to it. In order to evaluate the framework, an experiment on real Japanese stock price data shows that a refined object-level rule base, which comes from the initial object-level rule base for representing Granville's Law, has a performance beyond that of the average stock price. The performance is difficult for human technical analysts in a stock market to achieve. The result implies that the framework could create an anomaly from Granville's Law in a stock market technical analysis.     

Fair value accounting from a distributed cognition perspective

This study offers a unique interdisciplinary perspective on fair value accounting. The growing influence of esoteric financial instruments whose valuation is becoming increasingly complex makes it necessary to focus on actual valuation practices. Based on an extensive review, this paper regards fair value accounting for complex financial instruments as involving processes distributed among actors located inside and/or outside a reporting entity. It also draws attention to collaboration by organizations that apply their external and internal resources to perform complex financial valuations. Furthermore, it demonstrates that cases involving unusual market conditions underline the importance of human interactions to the valuation process.     

The price of rapid exit in venture capital-backed IPOs

This paper proposes an explanation for two empirical puzzles surrounding initial public offerings (IPOs). Firstly, it is well documented that IPO underpricing increases during “hot issue” periods. Secondly, venture capital (VC) backed IPOs are less underpriced than non-venture capital backed IPOs during normal periods of activity, but the reverse is true during hot issue periods: VC backed IPOs are more underpriced than non-VC backed ones. This paper shows that when IPOs are driven by the initial investor’s desire to exit from an existing investment in order to finance a new venture, both the value of the new venture and the value of the existing firm to be sold in the IPO drive the investor’s choice of price and fraction of shares sold in the IPO. When this is the case, the availability of attractive new ventures increases equilibrium underpricing, which is what we observe during hot issue periods. Moreover, I show that underpricing is affected by the severity of the moral hazard problem between an investor and the firm’s manager. In the presence of a moral hazard problem the degree of equilibrium underpricing is more sensitive to changes in the value of the new venture. This can explain why venture capitalists, who often finance firms with more severe moral hazard problems, underprice IPOs less in normal periods, but underprice more strongly during hot issue periods. Further empirical implications relating the fraction of shares sold and the degree of underpricing are presented.      

A welfare analysis of the site value taxation model

This study is a short-run version of Brueckner's (long-run) analysis of graded tax systems. Brueckner assumes a long-run market equilibrium that allows for changes in the market value of the land with a zero profit condition. It is our contention that it is more realistic to solve for the short-run conditions with fixed value of land. Under these conditions, we find that if land is relatively inexpensive, the graded tax system leads to superiority in terms ofk (capital improvement per unit of land),Q (initial housing output), andCS (Consumers' Surplus). With steeper inverse demand curves and greater marginal product and initial housing output, the land tax has a more negative impact on profit with graded tax systems.