拥挤效应、经济增长与城市规模

本文运用新古典经济的框架建立了一个经济增长模型,系统分析了拥挤效应、经济增长与城市规模的关系。假设城市规模扩大产生集聚效应并反映为拥挤效应的降低,将拥挤效应作为影响经济增长的因素纳入生产函数,分析经济稳态的演化路径,得出最优的城市规模、合理的城市拥挤程度和稳定的经济增长速度,并分析扰动稳态的变量对演化路径的影响,据此给出了一个估算最优城市规模的简单模型的结论。研究表明在不同条件下城市的最优规模是可变的,不存在统一的最优城市规模,城市化进程应该适度有序的进行。     

促进我国经济增长的最优财政支出规模研究

本文首先对公共支出与经济增长的相关理论进行了详细综述,认为财政支出规模对经济增长的影响从根本上取决于其对总产出的边际效应,并利用生产函数框架进行实证研究.研究发现,我国公共支出有利于经济增长,其边际生产力显著大于1;进一步考察发现,如果就财政支出而言,中国的最优政府支出规模应该是20.0%;但是,如果把对象扩大到公共支出领域,中国的最优政府支出规模应该是27.9%.而实际上2004年的财政支出规模为20.8%,这说明我国的财政支出规模仍然没有达到最优,我国当前增加财政对改革、发展和稳定的支持力度还应当继续.     

Technology and Optimal Segment Size

Increasingly, there is greater appreciation of the impact of technology on marketing practice. Many strategies like mass customization, relationship marketing, interactive marketing, etc., have gained increased attention, in part, from advancements in manufacturing and information technology. In this paper, we formally examine how technology has made such strategies economically feasible through its impact on optimal segment size. We build on Lancaster's model of product differentiation to derive an equation that exposes the invisible hand of technology. This equation shows how technology influences marketing practice through its effect on optimal segment size. In addition, the equation provides a formal explanation for the apparent paradox of mass customization; that customized products can be mass-produced profitably, without the benefit of large production volumes. We then use this equation to gain a more insightful view of the history of segmentation.Madison S. Wigginton Professor of Management and Director of the Center for Service Marketing     

Establishment Size and Local Employment Growth

In a sample of more than 2000 U.S. counties, smaller average establishment size is generally associated with faster subsequent growth rates of sectoral employment, both within and across sectors. The estimated effects are large in magnitude and thus economically important, and are consistent with several theories previously developed. These findings contribute toward a more precise understanding of the role of small businesses in economic growth and labor markets.     

The Size and Growth of UK Manufacturing and Service Firms

This paper investigates the relationship between firm size and growth for UK manufacturing and services over the period 1991 to 1995. We test for size effects on growth, using models which incorporate the influences of previous growth and industry membership. The results from the analysis suggest that for both manufacturing and services, small firms tend to grow faster than larger firms. The growth of manufacturing firms appears to persist over time, whereas this is not the case for service firms. Small firms tend to have more variable growth rates than their larger counterparts in manufacturing and services. This suggests that large firms may enjoy advantages associated with diversified operations which make them less susceptible to periods of extremely high or low growth.     

Firm Growth,Size, Age and Behavior in Japanese Manufacturing

This paper investigates the relationship between firm growth and firm size, firm age and firm behavior, such as R&D activity and subcontracting, based on the data of nearly 14,000 Japanese manufacturing firms. The stylized facts that firm size and age have a negative effect on firm growth are confirmed in the case of Japanese manufacturing firms. Also, a firms survivability rises with its size and age. R&D expenditure per employee has a significant positive effect on firm growth, which justifies the argument made by Hall (1987). Although subcontracting to only one company has no significant effect on firm growth, it has a significant positive effect on a firms survivability. In addition, subcon-tracting firms depending on only one company as a customer are subject to no significant age effects. This possibly suggests that the age effect itself has some relation to the extent of the trade network.     

我国存在最优政府规模曲线吗

本文运用格兰杰方法对我国1978-2004年政府支出与经济增长的因果关系进行检验,结果表明:经济增长是我国政府规模的格兰杰原因,但政府规模不是经济增长的格兰杰原因。这一结论说明我国并不存在最优政府规模曲线,但验证了瓦格纳定律,同时也为我国现阶段的财政政策取向提供了有益的参照。     

Job Creation by Company Size Class: The Magnitude,Concentration and Persistence of Job Gains and Losses in Canada

The statistical observation that small firms have created the majority of new jobs during the 1980s has had a tremendous influence on public policy. Governments have looked to the small firm sector for employment growth, and have promoted policies to augment this expansion. However, recent research in the U.S. suggests that net job creation in the manufacturing small firm sector may have been overestimated, relative to that in large firms.The first part of this paper addresses various measurement issues raised in the recent research, reassess the issue of job creation by firm size, and pushes this work beyond the manufacturing sector by employing longitudinal data covering all companies in the Canadian economy. We conclude that over the 1978–92 period, as a group small firms did account for a disproportionate share of both gross job gains and losses, and net employment increases, no matter which method of sizing firms is used. Measurement does matter, however, as the magnitude of the difference in the growth rates between small and large firms is very sensitive to the measurement approaches used. Part one of the paper also produces results for various industrial sectors, and examines employment growth in existing small and large firms (i.e., excluding births). It is found that employment growth in the population of existing small and large firms is very similar. Attempts are made to introduce a job quality aspect to the analysis by using payroll rather than employment data. Payroll data allow any relative change in hours worked or wages paid in small (relative to large) companies to be incorporated in the findings. This did not significantly alter the conclusions reached using employment data only.The second part of the paper looks at concentration and persistence of employment creation and destruction within size classes. If growth is highly concentrated, knowing that a firm is small will provide little information about its prospects for growth. Most small firms would grow relatively little, or decline, while a few expanded a lot. It is found that both job creation and destruction is highly concentrated among relatively few firms in all size groups. There are fast growing firms in all size classes, and although most job creation is found in the small firm sector, the fastest growing large firms out-perform the majority of small firms in any given period. Finally, the employment creation performance of businesses are compared over two three-year periods. It is found that knowing that a firm is a high performer (in terms of jobs created) over one period is of only limited value in determining growth in the second period. This is particularly true among small firms. These results suggest that firms which expand rapidly during one period are replaced to some considerable degree by others in the subsequent period.     

Firm Size,Source of Finance,and Growth - Evidence from China

Using a comprehensive firm-level data set from China spanning the period 1998–2005, this study investigates the relationship between firm size, financing sources, and total factor productivity growth. Controlling for the endogeneity of financing sources, we find that firm size plays an important role in the way financial structure affects the growth process. Domestic bank loans are more effective for bigger firms, while self-raised finance is more beneficial to smaller firms’ growth. We also uncover evidence that ownership mediates the relationship between firm size, finance, and growth.     

Size,Growth, and Variance among the World's Largest Non-merged Banks

This paper analyses growth, size, and variance of the capital, assets, and pre-tax profits of large international banks during 1987-97.We test hypotheses on whether size matters. It turns out that there is an inverse relationship between the amount of bank capital, assets, and profits and the growth rate of these items.This is in line with the findings for US banks in the pre-BrettonWoods era. Furthermore, we did not find, in contrast with Tschoegl's observations for international banks in the 1970s, a negative relationship between the size of large banks and the variability of growth in capital, assets, or profits. We conclude that size is not a self-sustaining attribute of international banks.     

The Exponential Age Distribution and the Pareto Firm Size Distribution

Recent work drawing on data for large and small firms has shown a Pareto distribution of firm size. We begin by showing that the firm age distribution is well approximated by an exponential distribution. We then mix a Gibrat-type growth process among incumbents with an exponential distribution of firm’s age, to obtain the empirically-observed Pareto distribution.     

Factor Substitution, Average Firm Size and Economic Growth

This paper extends the Lucas (1978, The Bell Journal of Economics 9(2), 508–523) analysis of firm size by taking into account a normalised aggregate CES production function. In a general equilibrium framework it is proved that there is an inverse relation between the elasticity of substitution and average firm size. If interpreted together with the fact that richer countries are characterised by a higher elasticity of substitution, this result can explain why the recent literature finds a positive association between the importance of SMEs in an economy and its stage of development, but seems to fail in finding causality between the two. Both have a common origin: a high value of the elasticity of substitution. This paper also provides a first empirical test of the theory proposed using cross-country data from both developed and developing countries.     

Size of investment,opportunity choice and human resources in new venture growth: Some typologies

A diversity of factors encompass entrepreneurship phenomena. An overview of theory and research in the field shows that entrepreneurship covers (1) number of start-up firms, (2) growth of the firm, (3) growth of the industrial economy, (4) individual mobility, and (5) social transformation. This paper tries to advance, through a partially developed formal model, an integration of some of the important aspects of entrepreneurship. Based on nearly 50 case studies carried out in the course of field work over North India, it examines the interplay of resources, opportunities and capabilities in new venture growth. The findings suggest that resource access may itself limit the range of opportunity choice and growth potential. Within these limits, managerial capability, as related to human resources in particular, could be more significant than hitherto recognized. A preliminary effort is made to develop a typology of firms based on the varying proportion of factors influencing growth of a venture. Further, a model of entrepreneurial firm stabilization and human resources is outlined. A path-based typology of new venture growth and human resource management is described. These include the use of family labor or supervisory resources, an empathetic leadership style and the presence of entrepreneurial teams.The findings in this paper result from a project to document profiles of entrepreneurs who have emerged through interactions with support systems, including entrepreneurship and small business development training programs in India. The states were divided into categories based on per-capita income and level of industrial development or backwardness. A judicious mix of purposive and random selection of cases was used. Criterion for selection included “extent of break from the past,” that is, non-business social origin of the entrepreneur and high-growth rate of the firm. Locationally, cases in a particular state have been selected from a) major urban center, b) smaller, more interior center, and c) small, remote center.The argument for small new ventures in developing countries lies in their positive employment and income generating effects. The claim rests on the presumed better efficiency of factor use in small enterprises—(surplus) labor in particular. Since the 1970s and the 1980s in the developed countries, too, new firms are acknowledged as being vital to an economy. The outlook for an individual new firm, however, can vary. High rates of sickness and mortality are also widely reported. Small firm start-ups are thought to play a role in widening the entrepreneurial base of a given society. It is an important expression of social mobility, as well as structural change, in a developing country context. At the micro-enterprise level, limited resources can restrict choice of opportunity to low growth ones. These represent a bad business idea, subsidized by family resources, including labor—the true self-employment cases. There could be a middle `growth zone’ where higher investment size widens opportunity choice.This slab represents the seedbed for firms with high-growth potential and merits the focus of policy makers, promotional agencies and advisory services. The strategic behavior of these firms can provide valuable insights into how `sweat equity’ is generated in growth ventures. There is a significantly sharp decrease in the number of firms in the third or highest, investment slab, approaching medium size. At this level, the size of the margin money required from the potential entrepreneur would limit the number of new entrants and their catchment sources. From a social transformation point of view, this may not be the desirable outcome. In the absence of developed markets for venture capital, this would render weak, the case for complete withdrawal of countervailing state assistance in industrially backward or depressed regions, which would favor those already advantaged.     

Profit Sharing, Risk Sharing, and Firm Size: Implications of Efficiency Wages

By taking account of output fluctuations, this paper constructs a synthesis of profit-sharing and efficiency-wage models to highlight the role of the risk attitudes of the firm and its employees. We show, contrary to the traditional efficiency wage theory, that in a profit-sharing economy unemployment is no longer a necessary device to induce work effort and, consequently, the labor market equilibrium may be characterized by full employment. Such a result is more likely to be true when the economy is characterized by small-sized firms. In addition, we also provide a preliminary sketch of the situations in which the firm chooses a profit-sharing program or a fixed-wage one, and discuss how a firm determines its pay parameters and employment in response to output fluctuations.     

Firm versus Sector Effects on Profitability and Growth: The Importance of Size and Interaction

In this study we contribute to the long‐standing debate on the impact of firm versus industry effects on firm performance in three distinct ways; firstly by testing the firm, industry and their interaction effects on performance, secondly by examining the impact of each effect for different size groups, and lastly by measuring performance in terms of sales growth in addition to profitability. We use data of 71,750 UK firms, between 2002 and 2004, and employ moderated regression analysis for three sub‐samples namely micro, SMEs and large firms. With regards to profitability, we find the interaction effect to be significant in all sub‐samples for broad level of industrial aggregation (SIC4). For narrow industrial aggregation (SIC2), the interaction effect is only significant for micro firms. Neither of the above effects is significant for sales growth.     

The Dilemma of Growth: Understanding Venture Size Choices of Women Entrepreneurs

In recent years the number of women-owned firms with employees has expanded at three times the rate of all employer firms. Yet women remain underrepresented in their proportion of high-growth firms. A number of plausible explanations exist. To develop richer insights, a two-stage research project was undertaken. A mail survey was sent to a sample of female entrepreneurs to assess motives, obstacles, goals and aspirations, needs, and business identity. Based on the survey results, follow-up, in-depth interviews were conducted with entrepreneurs, selecting equally from modest-growth and high-growth ventures. In terms of quantitative findings, growth orientation was associated with whether a woman was "pushed" or "pulled" into entrepreneurship, was motivated by wealth or achievement factors, had a strong women's identity in the venture, had equity partners, and believed women faced unique selling obstacles. The qualitative research made clear that modest- and high-growth entrepreneurs differ in how they view themselves, their families, their ventures, and the larger environment. The results of both stages suggest that growth is a deliberate choice and that women have a clear sense of the costs and benefits of growth and make careful trade-off decisions.     

Job Flows and Job Quality by Establishment Size in the Finnish Manufacturing Sector 1980–94

This paper studies how employment patterns and growth vary with establishment size in the Finnish manufacturing sector during the period 1980–94. The findings are compared with the predictions of alternative theories of firm growth. The paper also examines some aspects of job quality in different size categories, including wages, labour productivity, working hours, labour turnover and the persistence of jobs. According to the findings, small establishments create and destroy jobs relatively more than large establishments. In addition, in the smallest size categories both the share of gross job creation and the share of gross job destruction is larger than the share of employment. However, there is no clear relationship between establishment size and net employment change. Furthermore, after studying different aspects of job quality, we can conclude that the jobs offered by small and large establishments differ greatly in many respects and it is difficult to evaluate the total welfare effect.     

GDP growth determinants and foreign direct investment causality: the case of Iran

Given the economic conditions in Iran and the need to accelerate its economic growth, there is a rising interest in examining the variables that fuel its GDP growth. The scant literature on economic growth in Iran is composed of only a few scholarly studies that investigate this nation's GDP growth. However, none of these studies has examined the causality between GDP growth and its determining elements. The purpose of this study is: (1) to determine the economic variables that contribute to Iran's GDP per capita growth over time, and (2) to examine the causality between foreign direct investment and the relevant variables that are included in the model. To achieve these goals the study uses a model that is based on the postulates of de Mello. The results indicate that: (1) the major determinants of GDP per capita growth in Iran are value added growth and domestic investment growth; (2) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and GDP per capita growth in Iran in either direction; and (3) there is no causal relationship between foreign direct investment growth and value added growth in Iran in either direction.     

政府规模影响因素实证研究述评

政府规模一直是学术界和现实社会长期关注的焦点问题。在经济全球化的今天,一个国家的政府应该行使哪些职能及如何行使职能,政府规模应该控制在什么样的水平才能更加高质、高效地为公众服务,这是中国亟待解决的问题,也是一个世界性的难题。去年召开的十八届三中全会决议也再次强调要完善社会主义市场经济体制改革,其核心是处理好政府和市场的关系。本文试图从经济增长、政府财政能力、人口和开放等角度来对国内外重点文献进行梳理,以期从理论和学术角度对我国政府规模研究及实践提供一些借鉴。     

Networks,Firm Size and Innovation

Using survey data on Australian firms this paper investigates the determinants of innovation. Various possible determinants are investigated, including market structure, export status, the use of networks, and training. Regression analysis is conducted separately for manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms and, within each sector, by firm size categories. The results include evidence of persistence in innovative activities and that the use of networks is associated with innovation in some sector-firm size categories. Specifically, small manufacturing firms exhibit a positive association between networking and innovation. In contrast, for non-manufacturing firms this association is present for medium and large sized firms.