Credit card usage and consumer debt burden of households

The primary objectives of this study were to examine changes in credit card usage and the amount of debt between 1982 and 1986 and to identify factors influencing the amount of and changes in consumer debt held by households. Personal interviews were completed in 1982 and again in 1986 with the money managers of households in a small midwestern town in the U.S.A. The sample consisted of the 123 households that were represented both in the 1982 and 1986 surveys. Paired-samples t-tests were used to identify changes over time. Significant differences were found between 1982 and 1986 total household assets and total amount of debt. Regression analysis indicated that significant predictors of the amount of consumer debt burden were age, net income, total assets, and the degree to which managers felt comfortable with debt. Younger money managers were more likely to make larger monthly debt payments and have more consumer debt. Households with larger incomes and higher levels of assets also had higher total debt. Significant predictors of change in debt burden over the 4-year period were change in net income and total assets, with year-end savings being negatively correlated with consumer debt.     

Renegotiation, collective action clauses and sovereign debt markets

Collective action clauses (CACs) are provisions specifying that a supermajority of bondholders can change the terms of a bond. We study how CACs determine governments' fiscal incentives, sovereign bond prices, and default probabilities in environments with and without contingent debt and IMF presence. We claim that CACs are likely to be an irrelevant dimension of debt contracts in current sovereign debt markets because of the variety of instruments utilized by sovereigns and the implicit IMF guarantee. Nonetheless, under a new international bankruptcy regime like that recently proposed by the IMF, CACs can increase significantly the cost of borrowing for sovereigns, contrary to what is suggested in previous empirical literature.     

VaR performance during the subprime and sovereign debt crises: An application to emerging markets

Highly volatile scenarios, such as those provoked by the recent subprime and sovereign debt crises, have questioned the accuracy of current risk forecasting methods. This paper adds fuel to this debate by comparing the performance of alternative specifications for modeling the returns filtered by an ARMA-GARCH: Parametric distributions (Student's t and skewed-t), the extreme value theory (EVT), semi-nonparametric methods based on the Gram–Charlier (GC) expansion and the normal (benchmark). We implement backtesting techniques for the pre-crisis and crisis periods for stock index returns and a hedge fund of emerging markets. Our results show that the Student's t fails to forecast VaR during the crisis, while the EVT and GC accurately capture market risk, the latter representing important savings in terms of efficient regulatory capital provisions.     

Introduction: Navigating the global private equity frontier: Tumultuous and opportunistic times

At the Fifth Annual Global Private Equity Investing Conference on Thunderbird's campus in Glendale, Arizona, held in late March 2009, it was made clear the economic crisis not only has shown the world that economic globalization has come, but it also brings with it many new and surprising opportunities. For private equity in particular, globalization is imperative. This issue of the Thunderbird International Business Review offers an in‐depth look into several key topics for private equity in these tumultuous times, including how to structure a successful private equity portfolio, tools for reaching liquidity, and opportunities in the secondary and distressed debt markets. Katharina Lichtner of Capital Dynamics, Hans Swildens of Industry Ventures, Roger Wittlin of Silver Lake, and Sebastien Burdel of Coller Capital explore these timely topics in the following pages. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Consumer debt attitudes: The role of gender,debt knowledge and skills

The link between financial attitudes and consumer financial market behaviour is well documented. However, little is known about the role of financial knowledge and skills—the main components of the financial literacy construct—in shaping debt attitudes. This link is especially absent from the gender perspective. This study focuses on consumer debt literacy and debt attitudes. A representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1,004) was participated in a computer‐assisted telephone interview. Latent class analysis was employed to reveal their debt attitudes, and subsequently, links between debt literacy and debt attitudes were studied with multinomial regression models. The results show that respondents in Poland can be grouped into five classes exhibiting different attitude profiles. The structure of debt attitudes is complex and differs from a simple unidimensional pro‐debt/ anti‐debt construct. Although this study did not find significant gender differences either in the conceptualization of debt attitudes or in their drivers, the results showed that in all but one class, consumer attitudes are strongly linked to either debt knowledge or debt skills or to both. Debt skills were revealed to be a particularly strong predictor of consumer debt attitudes.     

Between debt and the devil: beyond the normalization delusion

Since 2008, we have found it incredibly difficult to achieve adequate nominal demand growth. I think a fundamental reason we found it so difficult focuses on debt overhangs, if we first allow private leverage to grow too high, we end up in a situation where the debt doesn’t go away, it just moves around the global economy. Total global debt to global GDP is now higher than it ever was before. When interest rates are already low, further reductions of interest rates have very little influence on investment and consumption. Ultra-loose monetary policy does produce increases in asset prices. But if that’s driving an increase in inequality on top of slow growth of real wages. There has been inadequate focus in economics on the different functions that credit creation plays within the economy. We have to think about control of the credit cycle as an end, per se. Our orthodoxy before the crisis was that private credit and money creation is just fine. We have to understand that both governments can fail and be dangerous, and that markets can fail and be dangerous.     

Profitable growth: Avoiding the ‘growth fetish’ in emerging markets

Growth management is a challenging but critical corporate strategy facing the fast economic growth in emerging markets. An overemphasis on growth would lead to the growth fetish, where growth is unqualified and seen as an end in itself. By examining the performance of 105,260 firms in key sectors of Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) from 2002 to 2011, this study presents quantitative evidence that supports a profit-oriented strategy as a more effective path to sustained profitable growth in emerging markets. To further support this argument, this study also provides qualitative evidence of a group of 70 sustained high-performing firms that are superior to their peers (the top 500 private companies in each of the BRIC countries) in terms of profit, growth, market share, and efficiency over a 10-year period. The study shows that sustained profitable growth requires qualified sales growth (i.e., organic growth), competence-based and competence-enhancing growth, and continuous product diversification.     

Debt-for-nature swaps: Axing the debt instead of the forests

Combining debt reduction with halting deforestation seems to be an attractive way of solving two urgent global problems at the same time at hardly any cost. But this view may be overly optimistic. What are the advantages and the drawbacks of debt-for-nature swaps? Are there any better alternatives?     

Afro-Diasporic women navigating the black ceiling: Individual,relational, and organizational strategies

In this article, we describe how the black ceiling—upheld by the powerful institutional logics of patriarchy and white supremacy, inordinately challenging and interlocking systemic barriers to leadership advancement—leads to the dearth of Afro-Diasporic women in senior corporate leadership positions and pathologizes Afro-Diasporic women as multiple outsiders. As a result, Afro-Diasporic women’s well-being in the workplace is compromised and many adopt coping and survival strategies to navigate a myriad of relational and environmental phenomena, such as spirit murder, emotional taxation, social closure, white privilege, and white fragility. To navigate and ameliorate these dynamics, we advance several individual, relational, and organizational strategies that support Afro-Diasporic women thriving in the workplace.     

Managerial Opportunism and Capital Structure Adjustments: Equity–for–debt Swap and Convertible Debt

This paper shows how capital structure adjustments through an equity–for–debt swap and convertible debt can resolve the inefficiency caused by managerial opportunism. We consider a situation in which a corporate manager's investment decision is affected by the firm's debt level. Although both an equity–for–debt swap and convertible debt can induce the self–interested manager to undertake only value–increasing projects through capital structure adjustments, there exists a significant difference between these two financial instruments. An equity–for–debt swap, which requires the agreement of both shareholders and debt holders, can change a firm's debt level only prior to the manager's investment decision. On the other hand, convertible debt, which gives debt holders a unilateral right to convert, can change a firm's debt level even after the manager's investment decision.     

Development through debt: Rationalizing the costs of external borrowing

Mounting external indebtedness has become a major problem for many developing countries. This may be not least a result of the fact that economists and policy-makers have tended to emphasize the benefits to the recipient countries of external borrowing to the neglect of its costs.     

The international debt problem: An analysis of the Brady plan

Recently the American Treasury Secretary, Nicholas Brady, launched a new initiative in which he proposed reducing the developing countries’ bank debt. What are the elements of the plan, and which countries would benefit? What problems does it entail? Can it bring about a decisive improvement in the international debt situation of the developing countries? The following two articles attempt to answer these questions.     

The challenge to Europe: Regional powers and the shifting of the global order

Europe’s position as the most important economic area in the world is gradually being challenged by China and other regional powers which have been growing faster than the EU in the last 20 years. An economic and political power shift is taking place. How can Europe best cope with this challenge?     

信用经济视野下企业社会责任的新内涵——信用责任

新时期企业社会责任的内涵应该包括信用责任历史上,德国经济学家布鲁诺·希尔德布兰（Bruno Hildrand,1812-1878）以交易方式作为划分经济时期的标志,认为社会经济的发展经历了三个时期,即自然经济时期、货币经济时期、信用经济时期。可以说,现代经济就是信用经济。