China's slowdown and global financial market volatility: Is world growth losing out?

China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Causes of Changing Inequality in the World

To come up with a theory that explains inequality and that has common application across many countries, we need measurements of inequality across countries and through time that are reasonably comprehensive and reasonably reliable — and this is a major challenge. For most countries in the world today, growth reduces inequality, and rich countries are more egalitarian than poor ones. However, there are exceptions. While global financial forces and changing financial conditions have played a powerful role affecting economic inequalities, there does not appear to be a single permanent trend to inequality.     

Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets

As part of a broader financial development reform agenda, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have successfully expanded and revitalised their stock markets over the last decade. Whereas previous contributions have investigated efficiency, international integration and portfolio diversification opportunities, very little is known about these markets’ vulnerability to external financial crises. In this paper, we investigate shift‐contagion to the MENA region using a comprehensive battery of econometric tests for a number of different crises episodes: the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian virus and its Brazilian sequel, the 2000 Turkish collapse, the 9/11 turmoil, the 2001 Argentinean crisis, the 2002 Enron/WorldCom scandal and the 2007–09 global financial crisis. We found that Turkey, Israel and Jordan were the most vulnerable markets over the 1997–2009 period, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Lebanon. Our results also highlight heterogeneous but increasing levels of sensitivity to external financial shocks, especially during the recent global financial crisis. From a financial point of view, this suggests that MENA‐based diversification strategies may be relatively inefficient during periods of global turmoil. From an economic point of view, our results suggest that stock market development also involves potential destabilisation costs. This issue should be acknowledged and addressed by policymakers if these countries are to ensure a smooth transition towards international financial integration.     

The impact of banks and non-bank financial institutions on economic growth

Empirical studies examining the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth without including non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) will likely generate biased empirical results. This study provides evidence that NBFIs can have a statistically significant negative impact on economic growth using cross-country data for both emerging and advanced countries. This finding suggests that these non-bank institutions, often loosely regulated, may introduce an excessive level of risk into the financial sector and the general economy. It is consistent with the current global financial crises where NBFIs, such as investment banks and insurance companies, introduced an excessive level of risk into the global economy. Hence, policy-makers may need to consider more timely and effective regulation of NBFIs and insure that adequate transparency and disclosure is provided to all financial markets participants.     

The global financial crisis,financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

The 2007 United States financial crisis has developed into the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the 1927 Great Depression. In addition to its severe repercussion in North America and the European Union, the crisis has put pressure on emerging markets in general, and the Middle East and North Africa region in particular. For a better understanding of how the crisis affected the MENA region, we focus in this paper on the global and regional financial linkages between MENA stock markets and the more developed financial markets, and on the intra-regional financial linkages between MENA countries' financial markets.     

国内关于国际金融危机成因的研究综述

论文发现,国内的相关研究,分别基于金融体系、美国国内经济失衡、国际环境和马克思经济理论等探讨国际金融危机的成因。基于金融体系展开的研究分别从金融体系运作、金融产品创新、金融体系顺周期因素和金融监管等视角进行探讨。基于美国国内经济失衡展开的研究分别从失衡本身、联储货币政策和政府经济政策等视角展开论述。基于国际环境展开的研究则分别从国际失衡本身、国际货币体系和新兴国家责任等视角进行分析。论文分别从以上几个方面对国内关于国际金融危机成因的研究进行系统的介绍和评价。     

The Asian economy: current state of play and future prospects

The global financial crisis, the so-called great world recession and recovery have had a serious impact on the Asian and global economies. Together, they managed to engender significant transformation in the contours of both the Asian and global economies. For instance, Asian economies presently depend less on markets in the advanced industrial economies and, due to their enlarging markets, can and did make a substantive contribution to the global recovery. They spearheaded the economic recovery from the global financial crisis. The post-crisis Asian economy is the third pole of the global economy. Significantly, the emerging market economies of Asia did not magnify the external shock this time and performed more like the advanced industrial economies. After a robust recovery in 2010, growth became somewhat subdued in 2011. Projections show that economic performance in the region in 2012 will not be very different from that in 2011 (see WB [World Bank] 2012).     

论建设国际金融中心的条件和指标

金融是现代经济的核心,国际金融中心则是全球经济的焦点.建立一个国际化的金融中心,需要一个城市从经济、政策、国民生产总值等各方面达到特定的条件及指标,但随着世界经济的发展,建立国际金融中心的条件已有了相应变化.本文通过研究老牌国际金融中心伦敦和新型国际金融中心新加坡的发展情况,分析建设国际金融中心所需要的条件和指标以及新旧两种国际金融中心的差异,探讨在我国建设国际金融中心所需的条件,以促进建立国际金融中心目标的实现.     

全球经济周期调整与中国对外开放政策

伴随金融危机,全球经济处于一个艰难的调整期。在这一时期中无论是发达经济体和新兴经济体经济都遭受巨大冲击,甚至不同程度陷入衰退;中国的经济也受到很大不利影响。为了应对金融危机,保持经济增长,中国应积极调整对外开放政策。     

金融业对英国经济增长和贸易收支的贡献

英国的产业结构和贸易结构已经进入典型的"后工业化时代",金融业在国内市场、离岸市场和海外市场全面发展,在英国各大产业中增速最快,已经取代制造业成为英国经济增长的发动机。金融业还是当代英国最具全球比较优势和国际竞争力的产业,巨大的金融服务贸易顺差有力地改善了英国的贸易收支,金融业已经成为缓解英国贸易失衡的主要缓冲器。     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

金融危机与区域经济发展模式的转变——以沿海四大区域经济模式为例

全球性的金融危机已经开始对我国实体经济产生较明显的影响,代表我国四大区域经济发展模式的苏州地区、温州地区、泉州地区及东莞地区经济也在此次危机中遭受了不同程度的冲击。本文依据此次金融危机前的数据,从人均经济指标、经济活动主体特征、贸易方式、经济开放度等方面综合比较了四种模式的异同,并利用2008年的数据,通过比较外贸出口额、失业率等八个经济指标的变化,分析了各地区在金融危机下的经济稳定性和抗风险能力,进而对我国区域经济发展模式的转型和调整提出建议。     

World War II to 2011: Changes and Challenges in the Global Economy

This paper discusses six major changes and challenges that have emerged since World War II that will shape the global economy for the indefinite future. These are the changing economic role of women, the emergence of the global economic and financial system, the re-emergence of state-supported enterprises, the impact of the Internet, the global diffusion of opportunity and innovation, and globalization as an opportunity and a threat. How these challenges are addressed will have important consequences for business and for public policy. In addition to the prepared remarks, this paper also has a summary of the question-and-answer session that followed Dr. Hormats’ address.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?

This speech compares and contrasts two different interpretations of the current plight of the global economy. It argues that the world has been suffering not so much from a structural deficiency in aggregate demand—secular stagnation—but from the aftermath of financial booms gone wrong—financial cycle drag. This perspective suggests that the very low levels of interest rates that have prevailed are not necessarily equilibrium ones—consistent with the “natural rate”. And although it indicates that the headwinds from the financial bust, while very persistent, are temporary, it also points to a number of material risks ahead: further episodes of financial distress, a “debt trap” and, ultimately, a rupture in the open global economic order. To limit these risks, policies should be rebalanced towards structural measures and address more systematically the financial cycle.     

Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets

This paper examines contagion vulnerability and the international and regional financial linkages of the MENA stock markets. The degree of vulnerability of those markets to global and regional financial crises will have important bearings on the respective economies' growth rate, and on their ability to diversify international and regional portfolios. Granger causality tests and impulse response functions reveal that while the GCC equity markets still offer international investors portfolio diversification potentials, those markets are relatively less vulnerable to global and regional financial crises. Moreover, even though the remaining MENA stock markets of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have matured and are now financially integrated with the world stock markets, they tend to exhibit more vulnerability to regional and international financial crises. Their vulnerability to international financial crises is due, on the one hand, to weak regional integration, and to greater economic and financial integration with the more advanced economies on the other.     

全球经济失衡与调整的政治经济学分析

美国金融危机爆发以来,全球经济失衡及其调整逐渐成为世界主要国家争论与战略博弈的一个焦点问题。本文在分析全球经济失衡的内涵及其成本的基础上,重点探讨了全球失衡的国内调整与国家间调整,认为寻求国内不同利益集团的利益平衡和主要相关国家之间失衡调整成本分担的平衡是决定全球经济失衡调整能否成功的关键。     

Investing in Asia's emerging equity markets

Asian equity markets have been hot for some time and they show no dramatic signs of cooling. The economies of the region have moved towards greater economic and financial integration while opening their capital markets to foreigners. Attracted by strong economies, credible reforms and further intentions of liberalization, global investors have made significant investments. However, the stability promised by a financially strong Japan is diminishing, and the region as a whole faces a variety of political and financial challenges.     

Outlook of World Economy——Sustaining the Recovery

Atier a deep global recession, economic growth has turned positive, as wide-ranging public intervention has supported demand and lowered uncertainty and systemic risk in financial markets.The recovery is expected to be slow, as financial systems remain impaired, support from public policies will gradually have to be withdrawn,and households in economics that suffered asset price busts will continue to rebuild savings while struggling with high unemployment.