Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?

Fixed income options contain substantial information on the price of interest rate volatility risk. In this paper, we ask if those options will also provide information related to other moments of the objective distribution of interest rates. Based on dynamic term structure models within the class of affine models, we find that interest rate options are useful for the identification of interest rate quantiles. Two three-factor models are adopted and their adequacy to estimate Value at Risk of zero-coupon bonds is tested. We find significant difference on the quantitative assessment of risk when options are (or not) included in the estimation process of each of these dynamic models. Statistical backtests indicate that bond estimated risk is clearly more adequate when options are adopted, although not yet completely satisfactory.     

“How are you vulnerable?”: Using participation for vulnerability analysis in emergency planning

Scientists in many fields of research have developed models, theories, and concepts attempting to grasp and manage dangers that are often difficult to imagine. Among the different perspectives, the science and technology studies (STS) vulnerability approach seems very promising. Relying on a constructivist paradigm, it is based on an inductive collection and analysis of a wide range of factors, with a particular focus on cultural factors and actual day-to-day practices. In this paper, we present the roots of this approach and we display findings based on three case studies exploring emergency planning in three different contexts (a city near a SEVESO plant, a school near a nuclear plant, and a city confronted to multiple catastrophic scenarios). The cases studies were realized by conducting three Focus Groups with different types of stakeholders (citizens, teachers, firemen, decision-makers, etc.). After presenting the results of the case studies, we discuss how stakeholders’ participation can inform such type of vulnerability analysis in the context of emergency planning. We argue that participation fosters a deep understanding of actual safety governance practices which allows innovative results to emerge as well as it initiates a learning process among the participants. It contributes to questioning the relations between decision-makers, experts, and citizens. It has the potential of bypassing the positivist and quantitative rationale of safety, and thus, of redefining the vulnerability governance. As a conclusion, we question the role of such STS vulnerability approach within the actual vulnerability governance.     

Nonlinear analysis for forecasting currencies: are they useful to the portfolio manager?

The importance of a time-varying specification for both the return and the risk of financial assets is well known. The purpose of this study is to investigate if some of the most recently developed econometric models, combined with technical indicators often used by practitioners, can significantly predict future returns. While most studies have focused on either univariate series or in-sample analyses of a given econometric specification, this study considers a multivariate framework where a US based investor daily reallocates a portfolio of three currencies (Deutschmark, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen). Series of three years out-of-sample forecasts are analysed in terms of risk and return and it is shown that some of the tested speciications can indeed signiicantly predict future daily returns and correlations over this three-year period.     

Corruption and the shadow economy: like oil and vinegar, like water and fire?

From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between corruption and the shadow economy is ambiguous: They can either be substitutes or complements. This paper contributes to this debate by using a structural equation model with two latent variables to extract information on various dimensions of corruption and the shadow economy. Analyzing a sample of 51 countries around the world over the period 2000 to 2005, we present empirical evidence for a complementary (positive) relationship of corruption and the shadow economy.     

Following the leader? The relevance of the Fed funds rate for inflation targeting countries

In a New-Keynesian model for a small open economy, we derive a CPI inflation-based Taylor rule that implements the flexible price allocation. We conclude that, in this rule, the natural rate of interest should be linked to the foreign interest rate and to domestic productivity shocks. This rule ensures that the CPI real rate moves in order to induce movements in consumption that are coherent with the flexible price allocation. The empirical evidence shows that inflation-targeting central banks respond to movements in the Fed funds rate, besides reacting to expected CPI inflation and to the domestic output gap. This is true for developed and emerging economies. Furthermore, we find that in emerging countries the response to foreign variables is not different from zero, as suggested by theory, when domestic inflation, rather than CPI inflation, is introduced in the policy rule.     

How do corporate tax bases change when corporate tax rates change? With implications for the tax rate elasticity of corporate tax revenues

We construct a new database of extensive margin changes to multiple aspects of corporate tax bases for OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. We use our data to systematically document the tendency of countries to implement policies that both lower the corporate tax rate and broaden the corporate tax base. This correlation informs our interpretation of previous estimates of the relationship between corporate tax rates and corporate tax revenues, which typically do not include comprehensive measures of the corporate tax base definition. We then re-examine the relationship between corporate tax rates and corporate tax revenues. We find that accounting for unobserved heterogeneity attenuates the relationship between corporate tax rates and corporate tax revenues, and increases the implied revenue-maximizing tax rate. Controlling for our new tax base measures does not substantively impact the magnitude of this relationship.     

Capturing the straw in the wind: do short sellers trade on customer information?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates whether short sellers trade the stocks of suppliers on customer information. Using the daily short-selling data derived from...     

Contagion from the crises in the Euro-zone: where,when and why?

The prevalence of contagion between the Euro-zone countries and other European countries since the Greek crisis of 2009 is now well – known, but the factors that influence the pattern of this contagion are not well understood. We investigate this question both within Europe and beyond to the USA and Japan, using an asymmetric M-GARCH model that focuses on extreme values of the risk premia on government bonds. We compare these extreme values with news of major events and find that they are highly correlated. We find a different pattern of contagion emanating from Ireland compared to the other crisis countries of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We also examine the factors that have made countries vulnerable to contagion and find that financial factors are more important than trade ones. However, intra-Euro-zone trade has also been a significant factor between the major Euro-zone economies. There is little evidence that global factors affect contagion between EU member states, but some evidence that nominal exchange rate movements offer a degree of insulation from contagion for the non-Euro zone states.     

Access to services: what are the real needs?

Adequate accessibility to managed care services is typically a key determining factor when an employer decides to implement a managed care plan. And although it can be difficult for an employer to determine what constitutes adequate accessibility, it is necessary in order for managed care utilization and associated cost savings to be maximized.     

Forecasting the exchange rate: A monetary or random walk phenomenon?

This paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of monetary and random walk models of the exchange rate. Instrumental-variable estimates of the ‘simple’ monetary model are not supported by the data, while the full-information-maximum-liklihood estimates of its rational-expectations counterpart are. The rational-expectations monetary model is operationalized using the results of Hansen and Sargent (1980) and Flavin (1981) and Box-Jenkins time series techniques. Monthly data on the US and UK economics over the recent flexible exchange rate period serve as the case study.     

Renewable Governance: Good for the Environment?

We conjecture that board renewal mechanisms—those substantive enough to renew the thinking of the board—are required before investors can address the mismatch between their preferences regarding environmental sustainability and what insiders at firms are actually doing. We identify the adoption of majority voting for directors and the introduction of a female director as two corporate governance mechanisms potentially strong enough to renew a board's thinking on sustainability. Using a sample of 3,293 firms from 41 countries, along with quasi-exogenous shocks to board renewal mechanisms in Canada and France, we find that both board renewal mechanisms are associated with significantly higher future environmental performance. Further tests provide suggestive evidence that board renewal is more strongly associated with environmental performance in settings with better institutions and more motivated institutional investors. These results suggest the importance of board renewal for alignment of firm policies with investor preferences around the world.     

What are the Capital Structure Determinants for Tax‐Exempt Organizations?

I study the determinants of capital structure in the absence of tax incentives. I find that debt use is positively related to asset tangibility, growth, and size, and negatively related to age, liquidity, and profitability. Tax‐exempt sector‐specific findings indicate that debt is also positively related to the efficacy of state laws against the misuse of assets and to the percentage of decision makers that are paid and negatively related to decision‐maker compensation and to charitable contributions. Religious organizations most commonly borrow from internal sources, those in education use tax‐exempt bonds, while human services organizations use mortgages and notes payable.     

What is an InsurTech? A scientific approach for defining the term

The insurance sector has been transformed as a result of the impact of InsurTech. However, although InsurTech has become a highly relevant concept in recent years, there has yet to be an agreed-upon meaning of InsurTech. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a solid definition that provides a clear understanding of the term InsurTech. For this purpose, an essential study of the complete scientific production has been carried out through the results obtained for InsurTech in the most relevant databases up to December 31, 2021. This paper aims to define the term InsurTech considering all the contributions made by scholars in the existing academic literature. The research methodology has consisted of an extensive systematic literature review merged with a comprehensive analysis of the nature of the definitions of InsurTech through a three-stage procedure. A total of 111 academic articles referring to InsurTech have been found. Based on a rigorous analysis and building on the common elements of the 17 meanings provided by the academics, a definition of Insurtech from a scientific approach has been presented. Finally, the nuances of this definition for an Insurtech to be considered as such are discussed and explained.     

Rating the ratings: How good are commercial governance ratings?

Proxy advisory and corporate governance rating firms (such as RiskMetrics/Institutional Shareholder Services, GovernanceMetrics International, and The Corporate Library) play an increasingly important role in U.S. public markets. They rank the quality of firm corporate governance, advise shareholders how to vote, and sometimes press for governance changes. We examine whether commercially available corporate governance rankings provide useful information for shareholders. Our results suggest that they do not. Commercial ratings do not predict governance-related outcomes with the precision or strength necessary to support the bold claims made by most of these firms. Moreover, we find little or no relation between the governance ratings provided by RiskMetrics with either their voting recommendations or the actual votes by shareholders on proxy proposals.     

Crowd wisdom and internet searches: What happens when investors search for stocks?

Search engines and social media have become popular among investors as tools for finding and sharing information. The investor social media gathers a large amount of investor-generated content (IGC), which reflects the crowd wisdom of investors, while search engines help investors increase their chances of finding them. In this study, we integrate investor search behavior data from the Baidu Index and investor crowd wisdom data from Eastmoney Guba to assemble a unique data set at the daily level. We then describe and quantify crowd wisdom from investor-generated content (IGC) using three dimensions (IGC average sentiment, IGC sentiment volatility, and IGC increased volume) to investigate the impact of crowd wisdom in the relationship between investors' Internet searches and next-day stock returns. In our empirical analysis, we find that IGC average sentiment strengthens the relationship between investors' Internet searches and next-day stock returns, while IGC sentiment volatility and IGC increased volume have negative effects. These moderating effects are also moderated by institutional investor attention, search terminal preference, and content reading volume. These findings help to explain the value and impact of crowd wisdom when investors search for stock information through the Internet.     

Single-equation,multiple-regression methodology: Is it an appropriate methodology for the estimation of the structure-performance relationship in banking?

Tests of the structure-performance paradigm of the industrial organization literature have been carried out almost exclusively using a single-equation, multiple-regression methodology. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that where the firms being considered are multiple product in nature and may pursue objectives in addition to maximizing the value of the firm, such a methodology may be inappropriate. The results presented in this paper suggest that the absence of a consistently strong, positive, and statistically significant relationship between market concentration and bank profitability may be traced in part to such an inappropriate methodology.     

Economic democracy: A path for the future?

As opposed to political democracy and its attempts at power control in the public sector, the concentration of economic power, and its antidote, the concept of economic democracy, has received much less attention. In the paper, we first offer a definition of economic democracy as a “a system of checks and balances on economic power and support for the right of citizens to actively participate in the economy regardless of social status, race, gender, etc.” Based on our definition, we suggest six possible faces of economic democracy and look at their implications for the vision of a sustainable, equitable and non-growing society, as discussed within the degrowth movement: (1) Regulation of market mechanisms and corporate activities. Regulation is one of the most obvious paths to curbing economic power, hence we highlight the issue of deregulation vis a vis possible degrowth policies. A revision of the free-market paradigm is suggested. (2) Support for social enterprises. We discuss different forms of democratic governance within enterprises and suggest that co-operative approaches, common in social enterprises, are better suited to a degrowth economy. (3) Democratic money creation processes, including pluralist community currencies, are suggested to counter economic power caused by the practice of fractional banking. (4) Reclaiming the commons (especially in their original sense as communal land stewardship systems) both conceptually and physically is seen by us as an important aspect of enhancing economic democracy. (5) Redistribution of income and capital assets is discussed as another approach to achieving economic democracy. (6) Finally, inspired by Vandana Shiva, we suggest that a broader view of economic democracy would involve a diversity of production scales and modes, including small-scale, subsistence and self-employment.