THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND THE VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATES BEFORE AND AFTER THE ASIAN CRISIS: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS*

This paper carries out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries, both before and after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the $US, but in contrast to previous counterfactual exercises which compute the weights for effective exchange rates on the basis of simple bloc aggregates, we apply a more disaggregated methodology using a larger number of trade partners and utilise ARCH/GARCH techniques to better capture the time‐varying characteristics of volatility. Our results suggest that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries both before and after the crisis and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of bilateral exchange rates against the dollar the gains from a UBP or CBP could also be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers, especially post‐crisis, since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: APPLICATIONS TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of population growth and capital accumulation on trade and welfare. In the absence of a terms of trade effect, an population increase reduces the standard of living and causes a reduction in welfare. An increase in population causes deterioration in the terms of trade of a labour abundant country, whereas capital accumulation improves them, regardless of the source of growth. Moreover, an increase in the South's population is immiserizing.     

FISCAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION BEFORE THE CRISIS

This article investigates fiscal convergence attained by EU countries in the period 1991–2008, by employing β‐ and σ‐convergence techniques complemented by a time series analysis. Overall our results highlight a distinctive convergence pattern in the European Union. Fiscal discipline leading to a fast convergence of deficit/GDP ratio over the 1990s markedly weakened in the following decade. Nonetheless, after the Euro debut a pronounced convergence in total revenue and total government spending emerges, with different patterns characterizing each expenditure component. Despite this evidence of fiscal harmonization, European treaties failed to attract countries toward a common share of government debt over GDP. (JEL E61, H11, C23)     

THE EAST ASIAN CURRENCY CRISIS: CAUSES AND LESSONS

Financial deregulation and capital-account liberalization preceded speculative currency attacks in Thailand. A combination of de facto fixed exchange rates and high rates of interest generated excessive capital inflows, which led to too much liquidity chasing bad investments. The under-supervised and over-guaranteed financial sector extended loans excessively, particularly for non-productive, speculative purposes. Non-transparent practices, in the form of weak disclosure of institutions' true balance sheets and insider relations, masked these poor investments. The buildup of short-term, unhedged debt left East Asian economies vulnerable to a sudden collapse of confidence. Currency attacks ran down official foreign exchange reserves. Rapid capital outflows and the consequent depreciation of currencies exacerbated the strains on private sector balance sheets. The policy lessons are to (i) use macroeconomic policy to avoid excessive capital inflows and currency overvaluation, (ii) strengthen the financial system, with proper disclosure and accounting requirements, stringent loan classification and provisioning rules, and capital adequacy requirements, prior to capital-account liberalization, (iii) stabilize exchange rates based on currency baskets that reflect trade and investment linkages, and (iv) develop regional. financial cooperation with regional surveillance and peer pressure to maintain policy discipline.     

THE USA AS THE 'DEMANDER OF LAST RESORT' AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT

Abstract.  The present paper evaluates the current account patterns of 69 countries during 1981–2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the USA as the 'demander of last resort': a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with a 0.3% increase in current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but results in insignificant changes in the current accounts of countries running deficits. The impact of US demand variables is larger on the current accounts of developing countries than that of OECD countries. We also contemplate China's current account over the next 6 years, and project a large drop in its current account/GDP surpluses.     

东南亚区域发展与金融危机

本文从东南亚国家的发展角度探讨了其金融危机的必然性。认为始于 １９９７ 年的东南亚金融风暴并不是简单的金融信用危机，而是其经济发展模式的必然结果。经济发展过于依赖“外贸”和“外资”，为其经济发展的不稳定和爆发金融危机隐患之一；投资结构不合理，导致经济结构发展失衡，产业结构未能适时升级和转换，为其经济发展不稳定和日后爆发金融危机隐患之二；世界范围内区域经济一体化的冲击，动摇了东南亚国家经济基础，是其爆发金融危机的原因之三。     

DUALISM IN JOB STABILITY OF THE KOREAN LABOUR MARKET: THE IMPACT OF THE 1997 FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper measures the dynamic changes in job stability in the Korean labour market during the period between the 1997 financial crisis and the recovery. Drawing on the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study data, our empirical research shows that the sharp decline in job stability experienced by Korean workers during the 1997 financial crisis never bounced back to the previous level. The recovery process was much slower for irregular, short-tenured or less educated workers than the other comparison groups, aggravating the polarization of job stability.     

A BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ANALYSIS OF THE LATIN AMERICAN DEBT CRISIS

In this paper we offer a definition of a country "debt crisis" based upon the amount of new borrowing relative to the cost of servicing past debt. Policy implications for both debtor countries and their creditors are examined. An empirical application is made to Latin American countries, 1978–82. The causes of the debt problems created during this period are investigated with respect to the extent they were the result of rising interest rates vis à vis increased borrowing.     

TAXES, GROWTH AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT TICK-CURVE EFFECT

This paper examines the dynamic and long run effects of a shift from income taxes to consumption taxes in a growing small open economy. We introduce a government sector that maintains a balanced budget and expenditure at a constant proportion of domestic income to a small open economy Swan-Solow model. Our framework provides a previously unidentified dynamic effect that is robust to endogenising the savings rate. Lowering the income tax rate promotes economic growth and has a tick-curve effect on the current account balance, characterised by instantaneous deterioration, a period of recovery and gradual convergence to an improved position in the long run.     

基于信息的双重危机模型及其在东亚危机中的应用

由于近来在新兴市场国家发生的一系列货币危机都同时伴随着银行危机的发生,要全面地理解这些货币危机,我们需要将具有微观基础的银行部门明确地纳入到货币危机的分析模型中去.该文通过应用基于信息的银行挤兑模型,建立了一个双重危机模型,并对诸如经济基本面的脆弱如何导致双重危机,以及银行危机和货币危机如何相互作用等问题,做出了内生化的解释.模型抓住了最近新兴市场货币危机的本质特征,并与最近东亚危机的经验事实非常符合.     

危机转移视角下的金融危机解读

传统的危机态主要是以产能危机为核心特质的危机形态;而现代的危机态则是以信用危机为核心特质的危机形态。这两种危机态在发生机制、传导机制等方面存在着本质上的差异,这使得经典的危机"中心—边缘"结构假说在解释此次美国金融危机时陷入了理论困惑,但两种危机态的"中心—边缘"危机转移规律是不变的。我国应当在世界金融体系不断解构与升级的进程中准确地定位,加强监管,防范风险,从金融制度、金融工具乃至产业发展等方面采取积极有效的策略加以应对。     

HOUSEHOLD SAVING,FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS,AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT IN CHINA

In this article, we present a model that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the 2000s. Our results suggest that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to large increases in the household saving rate. These increases coupled with the financial frictions preventing the household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Relaxation of financial constraints, on the other hand, was responsible for the decline in the current account surplus after 2008.     

MONEY DEMAND STABILITY AND INFLATION PREDICTION IN THE FOUR LARGEST EMU COUNTRIES

In this paper, we analyze the money demand functions of the four largest EMU countries and of the four-country (EMU-4) aggregate. We identify reasonable and stable money demand relationships for Germany, France and Spain as well as the EMU-4 aggregate. For the case of Italy, results are less clear. From the estimated money demand functions, we derive both EMU-4 and country-specific measures of money overhang. We find that the EMU-4 overhang measure strongly correlates with the country-specific measures, particularly since the start of EMU, and is useful to predict country-specific inflation. However, it generally does not encompass country-specific money overhang measures as predictors of inflation. Hence, aggregate money overhang is an important, but by far not an exhaustive, indicator for the disaggregate level.     

THE POST‐ASIAN CRISIS DROP IN INVESTMENT: THE CASES OF INDONESIA,KOREA, MALAYSIA,AND THAILAND

This study analyzes drops in East Asian investment and their determinants after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. We first employ a random level‐shift autoregressive model to quantify the shift in investment ratios of four Asian economies hit by the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. We trace the major historical shifts in the levels of investment ratios and we find that the cumulated downward shifts in investment ratios during 1997–1998 for Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand are 6, 5, 14, and 14 percentage points, respectively. The investment ratios of most countries experienced several rebounds between 1999 and 2001, but the rebounds were too small to bring investment ratios back to their pre‐1990 levels. Having identified the episodes of investment shifts, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and several robust tests are employed to investigate the determinants of those level shifts in investment ratios. We find that real per capita gross domestic product growth and banking crises are the two most important factors contributing to shifts in the investment levels of these four crisis‐hit Asian economies. The results are useful in understanding the causes and remedies of global imbalances. (JEL C11, E22, F32, O53)