Sticky Swedes and flexible Finns: manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden during the Great Depression

ABSTRACT

Nominal wage stickiness is a popular explanation for the greatness of the Great Depression. According to the sticky-wage explanation, the slow adjustment of nominal wages raised real wages above the market-clearing level, causing a reduction of output and labour, thus increasing unemployment. Explanations for nominal wage stickiness are usually sought within the labour-market institutions and their changes after the First World War. This paper examines the role of labour-market institutions by comparing manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden. These two countries had quite similar economic structures, trade patterns, and exchange rate policies, but different systems of industrial relations. Results indicate that stronger trade unions and collective bargaining made nominal wages stickier in Sweden, while in Finland, where collective agreements did not exist, unions were weaker, and wage adjustment was more flexible. As a result, real product wages rose in Sweden but fell in Finland. This created in Sweden stronger pressure for reducing labour input than in Finland. Our results show on one hand that labour market institutions clearly influenced the course of the Great Depression, but on the other hand that they alone do not explain the different economic outcomes during the depression and the recovery.     

Trade in information technologies and changes in the demand for occupations

I use data from the World Input-Output Database and show that trade in information technologies (IT) has a significant contribution to the growth in foreign intermediate goods in the 2001–2014 period. China has strongly contributed to the rise in trade in IT and has become one of the major foreign suppliers of IT. I merge these data with the EU KLEMS database and EU Labour Force Survey and obtain a dataset of 12 European countries and 2001–2007 period. I show that IT imports from China are associated with lower IT prices in European countries. The fall in IT prices has increased the demand for high wage occupations and reduced the demand for medium wage occupations. Nearly 25% of the variation in the demand for occupations can be attributed to the trade with China.     

The unemployment problem

The paper reviews the unemployment problem in Europe. It showsthat while there is a good deal of heterogeneity in Europeanunemployment experience, a 'European model' of high and persistentunemployment characterizes many of the core continental economies,in contrast to the low unemployment experience of the USA. Theexplanation that this difference is due to a common skill-biasedshock interacting with more rigid labour-market features inthe European case is reviewed, as is the suggestion that theEuropean experience is exceptional on account of the more stringentmacro-environment created by devotion to tight monetary policies.The policy outlook is one in which strongly expansionary economicpolicies seem unlikely to be launched and most of the burdenof fighting unemployment will be borne by labour-market reforms;the bad side-effects of these could be cushioned by resort towage subsidies, supporting a 'European' bias in favour of equality.The 35-hour week is judged to be an unlikely remedy.     

Understanding Swedish social democracy: victims of success?

The economic policies of Swedish Social Democrats were not theproduct of one centralized authority but, rather, a series ofinitiatives influenced by many political actors and inspiredby egaliatarian preferences. We focus on three policy areas.First, the welfare state is a central achievement of SocialDemocracy. Although its expansion is over, it has cemented SocialDemocracy's position in power and is still popular among theelectorate. Second, the labour-market model is in crisis. Thecentralized Rehn-Meidner model is not working, coordinationof wage bargaining has turned out to be difficult, and the tradeunions' radical politics of the 1970s alienated Swedish employersfrom social concertation. Finally, macroeconomic managementhas had to struggle with inflationary pressures, and the overheatingof the late 1980s and the subsequent deflationary shock ledto a sharp increase in unemployment in the 1990s. Many of theseproblems are related to Social Democracy's internal strains.     

Eastern European trade and the Austrian labour market

Eastern European Trade and the Austrian Labour Market. — Recent years have seen a major break in trade relations between Western and Eastern European countries. Austria experienced a large bilateral trade creation with these countries. In this paper, the authors take a closer look at the impact this trade growth had on the Austrian labour market. To differentiate as far as possible between different segments of the labour market, they concentrate on unemployment experience and wage growth for a panel of individual workers in Austrian industry. The results show rather small employment effects, the impact on wage growth is more pronounced with interesting modifications for mobile and immobile workers.     

What has Happened to Wages in the New Order?

This paper reviews trends in real wages in Indonesia since the early 1970s. It finds that there has been wage growth in a range of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. However, growth has been uneven across sectors and for different periods. After the oil boom, wage growth slowed during the second half of the 1980s, although it picked up again in the 1990s. The paper discusses the relationship between various episodes of economic growth and labour market developments which might have contributed to patterns of wage change in various sectors. It also examines the influence of price deflators on real wage change, and compares trends in real earnings with trends in wage rates.     

Progress and poverty in early modern Europe

An econometric model of economic development is estimated with data from leading European countries between 1300 and 1800. The model explores the impact of population, enclosure, empire, representative government, technology, and literacy on urbanization, agricultural productivity, proto-industry, and the real wage. Simulations show that the main factors leading to economic success in north-western Europe were the growth of American and Asian commerce and, especially, the innovations underlying the export of the new draperies in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The enclosure of the open fields, representative government, and the spread of literacy did not play major roles.     

Current account balances and structural adjustment in the euro area

In the past decade, a set of euro area countries has accumulated large current account deficits. After a brief relaxation of the euro area internal imbalances in the wake of the financial crisis, it appears as if this pattern arises anew when times normalize again and Germany still sticks to export-led growth. This issue has been labelled one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe inter alia by the European Commission and some other players on the EU level. In this paper, we analyse the role of private restructuring and structural reforms for the urgently needed sustainable readjustment of intra-euro area current account balances. A panel regression reveals a significant impact of structural reforms on intra-euro area current account balances. This implies that in particular structural reforms and wage restraint in notorious current account and budget deficit countries such as Greece are highly suitable to support long-term economic stability in Europe.     

Labour-market reforms in transition economies

Several lessons can be drawn from the natural experiments ofcentral and eastern European countries with labour-market policies.Two of them are particularly relevant also for OECD countries.First, it is not wise to reduce the duration of unemploymentbenefits when the length of unemployment spells are on the rise,unless (I) unemployment is still low and there is the administrativecapacity to implement active labour-market policies on a widescale or (ii) there are income support schemes of the last resortin place and an administration capable of cost-effectively enforcingwork-tests for those falling off unemployment benefit compensationrolls. The second and perhaps more positive lesson in the lightof the above is that it is possible to transform institutionand create an efficient policy delivery mechanism within a shorttime span.     

Sectoral Wage Rigidities and Labour and Product Market Institutions in the Euro Area

We estimate wage Phillips curve relationships between sectoral wage growth, unemployment and productivity in a country-industry panel of euro area countries. We find that institutional rigidities – such as labour and product market institutions and regulations – limit the adjustment of euro area wages to unemployment, in both upturns and downturns, particularly in manufacturing and, to a lesser extent, in the construction and service sectors. In addition, there are further limitations in the response of wages to changes in unemployment during economic downturns which suggests that euro area wages are also characterised by significant downward wage rigidities, especially in the manufacturing sector. These results are robust to specifications that account for factors that may affect structural unemployment (such as duration-dependent unemployment effects), as well as changes in the skill composition of employment that may affect the evolution of aggregate wages. The results also hold for panels including or excluding the public sector (where wages may be determined differently to the private sector also due to the effects of fiscal consolidation on public sector wages during the crisis). From a policy perspective, reforms in product and labour markets which reduce wage rigidities can facilitate employment growth and enhance the rebalancing process in the euro area.     

Gender Wage Inequality and Economic Growth: Is There Really a Puzzle?-A Comment

Seguino (2000) shows that gender wage discrimination in export-oriented semi-industrialized countries might be fostering investment and growth in general. While the original analysis does not have internationally comparable wage discrimination data, we replicate the analysis using data from a meta-study on gender wage discrimination and do not find any evidence that more discrimination might further economic growth-on the contrary: if anything the impact of gender inequality is negative for growth. Standing up for more gender equality-also in terms of wages-is good for equity considerations and at least not negative for growth.     

市场潜力、外部性与中国地区工资差异

改革开放以来，中国地区间经济增长率的差异直接导致了地区间工资差距呈现持续扩大的现象。本文以新经济地理学的空间工资结构理论为指导．运用1997-2004年省级面板数据，着眼于市场潜力、产业外部性和城市外部性三方面来考察现阶段中国地区工资差距的变化趋势。研究结果表明，市场潜力的空间分布与产业和城市的外部性是造成中国地区工资差异的重要因素。     

Keynesian and Austrian Perspectives on Crisis, Shock Adjustment, Exchange Rate Regime and (Long-Term) Growth

The 2010/11 European debt crisis has revived the discussion concerning the optimal adjustment strategy in the face of asymmetric shocks. This paper approaches the question from a theoretical perspective by confronting exchange rate based adjustment with crisis adjustment via price and wage cuts. Econometric estimations yield a negative impact of exchange rate flexibility/volatility on growth, which is found to be particularly strong for countries with asymmetric business cycles and during recessions. Price flexibility is found to have a positive impact on growth. Based on these findings we support a further enlargement of the European Monetary Union and recommend more exchange rate stability for the rest of the world.     

Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?

This paper considers future European growth prospects in the light of a new productivity paradox, namely, the co-existence of a productivity slowdown and exciting new technologies. Several potential explanations are reviewed. It is argued that while some are unpersuasive it is too soon to be sure which carry the most weight. This has the implication that while the slowdown is real, it is not necessarily permanent. A key, hotly disputed issue is the future economic impact of technological progress on which forecasts differ dramatically. Supply-side reform could have a strong positive effect, but this is not likely to happen.     

我国中央企业工资收入分配改革的方向与策略——基于工资集体协商视角

一年来,面对复杂经济环境,中国政府将"拉动内需"作为经济发展的重要途径。为促进消费,政府积极引导企业建立和实践工资集体协商,以合理、有效地增加职工工资收入。文章从工资集体协商视角对央企工资收入分配改革的方向和策略进行研究。指出应该在央企监管部门、央企所属行业工会和人保部门之间建立行业级工资集体协商机制以保障协商谈判的效率与公平。基于合作博弈理论,构造了协商主体的效用函数;通过模拟赋值,对三种联盟结构下的工资协商主体的整体效用进行计算,进而得出央企效益类型以及议定工资增长率的高低决定协商主体策略选择的结论。     

Top wage incomes in Japan, 1951–2005

Using wage income tax statistics, we construct continuous series of upper wage income shares in Japan from 1951 to 2005 to document the evolution of top wage incomes and investigate their long-run determinants. We find that, while the middle wage income class gained enormously both in absolute and relative terms during the period of high economic growth, the upper wage income class faired comparatively better after 1975. In particular, the shares of total wage accruing to the top 1% wage earners and above have risen steadily since the late 1990s. A simple time-series regression analysis indicates that marginal income tax rates, corporate performance, female labor force participation, and labor disputes are important determinants of top wage income shares in post-WWII Japan. Although not conclusive, our results suggest that much of the recent gains in wage income shares at the top can be explained by the changes in these four factors, placing a less emphasis on a story of structural change.     

Trade Union and Global Economic Growth

Abstract

This paper develops a simple framework for examining the role of unions in a global economy. It builds on the model of different institutions by comparing America with a flexible wage and Europe with a rigid wage (the existence of union), where the two areas are integrated via perfect capital mobility. We find the necessary condition that the degree of wage orientation of the union is larger than the firm's bargaining power and determines the positive direction on global economic growth. In addition, the effect of union's bargaining power on global economic growth is ambiguous. If the sum of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour and the output elasticity of labour is smaller than one, or the firms are characterized by a Leontief production function (Harrod–Domar growth model) or an extremely low substituting elasticity (much empirical literature is supported), the union's bargaining power will lead to an increase in the growth of the global economy. In the general Cobb–Douglas production function (Solow–Swan neoclassical growth model), the union's bargaining power will result in a decline in the growth of the global economy.     

A Tale of Two Peripheries: Real Wages in Denmark and New Zealand 1875–1939.

Abstract

Denmark achieved dramatic real wage growth after 1870, compared to other European economies and to those of the New World. The ingredients of Denmark's success are gauged by comparison with one its major competitors in the British food-products markets, New Zealand. Faster Danish productivity growth explains only part of Denmark's faster real wage growth. Open economy forces, chiefly international capital flows before 1913, and especially Danish trade union militancy around the end of World War I, influenced income distribution and especially favoured wages over property income in Denmark. Denmark's GDP per capita equalled New Zealand levels between the world wars but her real wages surged past those of New Zealand as distributional shifts favoured Denmark's wage earners.     

Spatial spillovers of regional wages: Evidence from Chinese provinces

This study investigates the effects of spatial interactions on local wages based on a panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2001 and 2010. Using the Global Moran's I statistic, we provide empirical evidence for the presence of spatial dependencies in provincial wages. Then, we estimate the provincial wage equation using a spatial panel model that controls for spatial heterogeneity and spatial interdependence as well as other regional characteristics. The empirical results show that spatial wage spillover plays an important role in the determination of local wages. Furthermore, we find that human capital and economic growth are two underlying forces strengthening wage spillovers across provinces.     

Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China

We examine the wage trends of ordinary workers and the wage convergence between unskilled and skilled workers in China. First, we find that wages in all non-agricultural sectors, wages of migrant workers, and wages of hired workers in the agricultural sector have increased dramatically since 2003. Second, through comparing wage differentials between migrant and urban resident workers and between heterogeneous education groups within migrant workers, and by investigating the changes in the contribution of the returns to education to wage differentials, we find that the wages of unskilled and skilled workers have converged. Both the increasing wage trends and wage convergence are interpreted as evidence supporting the hypothesis that China has passed what can be called the Lewis turning point in the industrial sector. We conclude that the sustainability of economic growth in China requires an upgrading of labor market institutions to accommodate the merging of the rural and urban labor forces.