Empirical analysis on China money multiplier

The paper firstly represents two kind statements of China money multipliers and theoretically analyzes the relationship between each structure factor and China money multiplier. Secondly, it summarizes the several features and the move trends of China narrow and broad money multipliers and their structure factors. Thirdly, the paper empirically analyzes how and what degree the each structure factor affects China narrow and broad money multipliers holding everything else constant. At last two important conclusions are got, that is, the required reserve ratio is the most associated with China money multipliers and the saving deposit ratio is more associated with that, the required reserve ratio and the interest rates can be used as the ways of affecting money aggregate by the People＇s Bank of China.     

货币供应量对我国宏观经济调控作用的模型研究

一直以来货币供应量作为中介指标在宏观经济调控中的作用受到很多专家、学者的关注,关注的焦点都集中在货币供应量作为中介指标是否合理这一问题上.本文针对我国货币供应量作的宏观调控作用,试建立了关于货币供应量增长率、名义国内生产总值增长率和消费价格指数增长率三者的经济模型,同时做出货币供应量的冲击响应曲线图。经进一步实证分析,得出结论和建议。     

A note on the monetarist interpretation of inflation in Austria

Zusammenfassung Die Vorstellung, daß eine exzessive Geldmengenvermehrung zu Inflation führe, hat besonders in den siebziger Jahren stark an Boden gewonnen. Die monetaristische Analyse der Inflation tritt allerdings, wie die einleitenden Zitate dokumentieren, in vielerlei Varianten auf. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt die Frage, wieweit die simple Version des monetaristischen Ansatzes auf Österreich zutrifft. Die Arbeit analysiert zuerst, in welchem Maße sich rein empirisch eine Beziehung zwischen Geldmengenwachstum und Inflationsrate nachweisen läßt. Für die Jahre 1964 bis 1977 ergibt sich in der Tat eine verhältnismäßig enge Beziehung zwischen diesen beiden Variablen. Werden jedoch die Jahre 1964 bis 1977 von der Regressionsanalyse ausgeschlossen, ergibt sich eine bedeutend losere und in der Form geänderte Beziehung, und die Rate der Geldmengenveränderung scheint sich nicht als Instrument für kurzfristige Prognosen der Inflationsrate zu eignen.Darüber hinaus gibt es auch von theoretischer Seite Einwände. Eine der wesentlichen Voraussetzungen für die Validität eines auf die geschlossene Volkswirtschaft beschränkten monetären Ansatzes, nämlich die Stabilität der Geldnachfragefunktion, scheint für Österreich nicht gegeben zu sein. Die zeitliche Aufeinanderfolge von hohen Wachstumsraten der Geldmenge in den Jahren 1971 bis 1973 und den hohen Inflationsraten 1974 bis 1975 scheint daher nur eine historische Zufälligkeit zu sein. Die abschließenden Bemerkungen weisen darauf hin, in welcher Richtung die monetäre Analyse der Inflation verfeinert werden könnte.     

中国通货膨胀的福利成本研究

Inflation is always an important indicator to measure whether economy is stable and healthy. This paper provides a substantive survey of the research on the welfare cost of inflation, and uses the methods of consumer’s surplus and neo-classical general equilibrium models respectively to estimate the welfare cost of inflation in China. The results show that high inflation will cause huge welfare cost in China, so keeping low inflation is beneficial to the entire economic welfare of China. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2007, (4): 30–42, 159     

A note on the specification of the fisher equation under inflation uncertainty

The effect of uncertainty on the relationship between the nominal interest rate and the expected rate of inflation, the Fisher equation, is examined both theoretically and empirically. It is found that the coefficient of the expected rate of inflation is significantly below unity. Variable rates of inflation tend to effect the nominal rate of interest positively, but real yields are apparently effected only by expected inflation, but not its variance.     

A note of caution on the relation between money growth and inflation

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The effect of money growth on inflation weakened notably after the 1980s before strengthening after 2020. There is evidence that this time variation is related to the pace of price changes, as we find that the maximum impact of money growth on inflation is increasing in the trend level of inflation. These results caution against asserting a simple, time-invariant relationship when modeling the joint dynamics of monetary aggregates and consumer prices.     

A note on the international transmission of inflation: The impact of U.S. inflation on Mexico

This paper investigates the relative impact of U.S. inflation and domestic monetary factors on the joint determination of inflation and the balance of payments of Mexico between 1950 and 1979. It also tests the hypothesis that the U.S. money supply has an additional, direct impact on Mexico's balance of payments.     

The effect of real wages and inflation on labour productivity in Malaysia

This study examines the relationship between labour productivity, real wages and inflation in Malaysia using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and also the Granger causality test. The findings of this study suggest that inflation is negatively related to labour productivity. However, the effect of real wages on labour productivity is non-linear and the two have an inverted-U shape relationship. From a policy viewpoint, the Granger causality test shows that real wages Granger-cause labour productivity, but there is no evidence of reversal causation. Hence, the Malaysian dataset supports the claims by the efficiency wage theory. Moreover, we find that inflation and labour productivity in Malaysia have bilateral causality in the short- and the long-run.     

A note on the rationality of survey inflation expectations in the United Kingdom

When actual and expected inflation rates are integrated process, the rational expectations assumption involves a particular cointegrating relationship between them. This makes it possible to test the rationality hypothesis using error-correction formulations. By using these cointegration- and error-correction techniques, unbiasedness and weak-form efficiency cannot be rejected on survey inflation expectations from British Manufacturing Industries.     

A note on the variability of inflation and the cross-sectional dispersion of stock returns

This paper documents a positive relationship between the variance of the inflation rate and the variance of cross-sectional common stock returns which is consistent with the imperfect information hypothesis. We also report that the relationship has changed over time.     

Unit Root Analyses of the Causality Between Japanese Money and Income

Unit root techniques and cointegration analysis have develop ed considerably in the last ten years. At the same time, the nonstationary test for Granger causality has been developed. We shed some new light on Japanese money supply and income causality by using nonstationary techniques. We specify univariate ARMA models of money, income, GNP deflator and rate of interest, initially by using the Dickey and Fuller (DF) or the augmented DF (ADF) tests. Two diagnostic tests are applied to each selected ARMA regression. One is the residual DF test, and the other is the moving average (MA) unit root test of residuals . After selecting the ARMA model, some causality tests are applied to the error correction model (ECM) of a vector autoregression (VAR) one of which is ordinary least squares (OLS) and another is the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The former requires only the standard F -test on the deleted variables in the ECM. The latter requires the Johansen's ML method in estimating cointegration. Causality is found to go from income to money supply but not the other way. Appendices include a simple implementation of the MA unit root test, a pedagogical proof of the Granger causality tests developed by Toda and Phillips (1993) and an interpretation of the test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995).
JEL Classification Numbers: C32, E50     

货币供给量对资本市场收益的影响——基于中国股票市场的分析

当一个经济体中存在股票市场时,货币政策的传导机制显得非常复杂。本文就货币供给量对股票市场收益的影响进行了经验研究,得出狭义货币供应量（M1）和广义货币供应量（M2）均对市场有正向影响的结论;同时发现,市场对现有影响因素的反应有过度的倾向,但长期内会恢复均衡。因此,在制定货币政策时,需要考虑货币供应量对证券市场特别是股票市场的影响。     

A note on optimal procurement contracts with limited direct cost inflation

Laffont and Tirole's [Using cost observation to regulate firms, J. Polit. Econ. 94 (1986) 614-641] pioneering analysis identifies the optimal procurement contract when the supplier can readily inflate his innate production cost without detection. When the buyer has some ability to limit such cost inflation, an alternative contract can outperform the contract identified by Laffont and Tirole. The alternative contract induces substantial pooling, discontinuous production costs and effort supply, and rent that varies non-monotonically with innate cost.     

Income velocity and non-GDP transactions in the UK

It is widely reported for many countries, including the UK, that income velocity has been highly variable around a declining trend in recent years. This paper advances the following hypothesis. The demand for credit and hence the broad money stock are influenced by total spending in the economy, rather than spending only on newly produced goods and services. Since total spending in the economy has generally increased relative to GDP (mainly because of asset transactions) credit and money have expanded more rapidly than GDP, with the resulting fall in income velocity. Using quarterly data from 1975 to 2008, we estimate a vector error correction with income velocity as the dependent variable and the ratio of total to GDP transactions as an explanatory variable. The results show substantial support for the hypothesis and raise (further) doubts about the information content of broad money aggregates for inflation targeting central banks.     

Review article. Kalecki on imperfect competition, inflation and money

This paper reviews the final two volumes of Kalecki's CollectedWorks. It first discusses, based on the papers in Vol. VI, hiscontributions on cartels, on Nazi Germany, the development ofindices of business fluctuations and of national income accounts,and the movement of prices and costs over the business cycle.Drawing on the papers reproduced in Vol. VII, this paper continuesby discussing Kalecki's writings on rationing, inflation, imperfectcompetition and unemployment, money and finance, the nationaldebt and the welfare state, international economic arrangements,the post-war American economy and econometrics and methodology.     

Threshold cointegration between inflation and US capacity utilization

An analogue to the Phillips curve shows a positive relationship between inflation and capacity utilization. Some recent empirical work has shown that this relationship has broken down when using data after the mid-1980s. We empirically investigate this issue using several threshold error correction models. We find, in the long run, a 1% increase in the rate of inflation leads to approximately a 0.0046% increase in capacity utilization. The asymmetric error correction structure shows that changes in capacity utilization show significant corrective measures only during booms while changes in inflation correct during both phases of the business cycle with the corrections being stronger during recessions. We also find that, in the short run, changes in the inflation rate do Granger cause capacity utilization while changes in capacity utilization do not Granger cause inflation. The Granger causality from inflation to capacity utilization can be interpreted as supporting recent calls made in the popular press by some economists that it may be desirable for the Federal Reserve Bank to try to induce some inflation. However, it is also possible to interpret these Granger causality results as arising because both variables respond to some more fundamental set of variables with the inflation rate simply responding sooner. The lack of Granger causality from capacity utilization to inflation casts doubt on the older view that capacity utilization could be a leading indicator for future inflation.     

Estimation of Money Demand Function of South Korea Considering Regime Switching

The stability of money demand function is an important issue in macroeconomic policy implementation. Money demand of Korean economy was estimated. Cointegration test with time dummy variables results show that there is not only long-run equilibrium relationship between money demand and macroeconomic variables, but also structural breaks in this equilibrium relationships. Least squares, state-space, and Marcov switching methods show that there also has been instability （or regime shifts） of parameters in money demand, especially over 1997 crisis and the early 2000s. This fact implies that monetary policy for stabilization might encounter big problems due to change （instability） of money demand.     

A note on the generalised measures of risk aversion

This paper is concerned with generalised scalar measures of risk aversion. A measure R which may meaningfully be applied to both unidimensional risks (risk in income or wealth) and multidimensional risks has been constructed. In case of identical preferences, we have also constructed an alternative measure of risk aversion $\text{R}{}^1$ which is shown to be related to the Khilstrom-Mirman measure. This relationship explains the nature of the Khilstrom-Mirman measure.