Remittances and misery index in Turkey: is there a link?

This study tests the long run relationship between remittances and misery index in Turkey over the 1975–2011 period, using bounds testing approach. The results indicate that remittances and misery index are co-integrated. The misery index appears to have positive impact on remittance inflows in both short and long run, supporting altruism theory in remittance sending behaviour in Turkey.     

Productivity and efficiency of Vietnamese banking system: new evidence using Färe-Primont index analysis

This article aims to provide a clearer view on the recent evolutions of the Vietnamese banking system that can be useful to public authority when taking restructuring decisions. This article focuses on the evolution of productivity of Vietnamese banks over the period 2008 to 2012, and on the evolution of the different components of this productivity: technical change, pure technical efficiency and mix and scale efficiency. The methodology draws from very recent developments in index theory in the design of multiplicative-complete economically ideal indexes, using Färe-Primont productivity indexes to measure productivity. This methodology is applied to a balanced panel of Vietnamese banks. The results complement observations usually made on the recent development of the Vietnamese banking system. They show that the State Bank of Vietnam’s restructuring policy cannot focus only on either the insufficient size of banks or a better management of these banks in terms of the mix of outputs. Both must be considered simultaneously, not only through bank mergers but also in setting management criteria in line with criteria defined internationally.     

Why is there money? Endogenous derivation of `money' as the most liquid asset: a class of examples

Summary. The monetary character of trade, use of a common medium of exchange, is shown to be an outcome of an economic general equilibrium. Monetary structure can be derived from price theory in a modified Arrow-Debreu model. Two constructs are added: transaction costs and market segmentation in trading posts (with a separate budget constraint at each transaction). Commodity money arises endogenously as the most liquid (lowest transaction cost) asset. Government-issued fiat money has a positive equilibrium value from its acceptability for tax payments. Scale economies in transaction cost account for uniqueness of the (fiat or commodity) money in equilibrium. Received: February 15, 2002; revised version: August 12, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This paper has benefited from seminars and colleagues' helpful remarks at the University of California - Santa Barbara, University of California - San Diego, NSF-NBER Conference on General Equilibrium Theory at Purdue University, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics at San Diego State University, Econometric Society at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, SITE at Stanford University-2001, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Midwest Economic Theory Conference at the University of Illinois - Urbana Champaign, University of Iowa, Southern California Economic Theory Conference at UC - Santa Barbara, Midwest Macroeconomics Conference at University of Iowa, University of California - Berkeley, European Workshop on General Equilibrium Theory at University of Paris I, Society for Economic Dynamics at San Jose Costa Rica, World Congress of the Econometric Society at University of Washington, Cowles Foundation at Yale University. It is a pleasure to acknowledge comments of Henning Bohn, Harold Cole, James Hamilton, Mukul Majumdar, Harry Markowitz, Chris Phelan, Meenakshi Rajeev, Wendy Shaffer, Bruce Smith, and Max Stinchcombe.     

‘Philosophie économique’ and money in France, 1750–1776: the stakes of a transformation

Abstract

The developments of political economy in France between 1750 and 1776 did not allocate a central place to the discussion of the nature and functions of money. The object of this paper is to account for this fact and what it denotes: the disappearance of money as a central object in the discourse on economy and society. We outline the context of this mutation in relation to the ideas of Montesquieu, Gournay and Forbonnais. The actors of this change will then be considered: the promoters throughout these years of ‘philosophie économique’ i.e. Quesnay, the Physiocrats and Turgot. An analysis of these authors, together with a founder of this perspective, Boisguilbert, will show how the status and role of money was modified and illuminate the issues involved. This transformation can be related to the affirmation of a new political discourse whose foundations are rooted in economic interest.     

International technological spillovers from ICT‐producing manufacturing industries: a panel data analysis

This paper examines the effect of the international diffusion of technological capacity from ICT sectors on the total factor productivity in developed countries. Special attention is paid to the construction of a more recent and homogeneous industry‐level data set using unit value ratios and a hedonic price index. A cointegration analysis is performed on this annual panel data for 10 manufacturing sectors in six OECD countries over the period 1979–2001.

On the basis of our results, we may conclude that a country receives more international technology spillovers in its manufacturing industries the closer its relations with more technologically advanced nations are and the more open it is to imports. Meanwhile, information and communication technologies developed abroad increase the total factor productivity of each of the manufacturing sectors of a country, and this effect is enhanced where ICT goods are imported from nations with advanced technology of this kind.     

Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence

This paper analyses the effect of the nominal convergence process on the ability of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to meet both the inflation and the exchange rate criteria for Eurozone entry. The size of these convergence effects on the exchange rate (for inflation targeters) and for inflation differentials (under a fixed exchange rate) is estimated for a variety of different convergence scenarios. The key result, robust across all scenarios, is that countries with fixed exchange rates will find it much harder to simultaneously meet the criteria than inflation targeters. Probit estimates on the ability of a country to get inflation below the reference value under a fixed exchange rate show a strong effect for the relative price level.     

Information Infrastructure for Healthcare: An Evaluation of a Government‐Industry Technology Development Initiative

This paper illustrates a 'bottom-up' model of a civilian technology policy program by recounting the story of the 'genesis' of the Advanced Technology Program (ATP) Information Infrastructure for Healthcare (IIH) focused program beginning with the initial exchange of ideas between members of the private and public sector (industry's submission of 'white papers'; workshops conducted by the ATP; meetings held between individuals from both groups) in which those technologies necessary for the development of a national information infrastructure in healthcare were identified. Included is a discussion of the ATP 'white paper' process in which noted differences existed between what the ATP hoped to gain through this method and how the private sector responded. The ATP review and selection process and the experience of firms, small, medium and large, with ATP projects are also discussed.     

Black–white wage differentials: duration and probability unemployment effects in a multiple of sample selection bias model

The extent to which probability and duration of unemployment affect the black–white wage differentials is examined in this paper. The paper simultaneously incorporates in the wage equation the multiple sample selection bias that occurs as a result of individuals’ propensity to be in the labor force, and the firm’s hiring decisions. The results reveal a substantial contribution of the duration of unemployment variable to the black–white wage differential, but a small portion of the differential is explained by the probability of unemployment. The results also indicate a sizeable difference between the contribution of the duration of unemployment variable to the male’s wage differentials (26%) and to the female’s (35%). The study finds that an individual’s labor force decision as well as a firm’s hiring decision are important in the wage determination process and that failure to account for the sample selectivity bias due to these two decisions will result in either underestimating or overestimating the wage differentials between black and white workers. At the macro level, the results seem to suggest that promotion of racial wage equality should be associated with policies that will minimize blacks’ incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells.     

Impact of a moral hazard problem in the Joint Forest Management Programme: a study from forest‐dependent households in West Bengal

This study seeks to explore the impact of a moral hazard problem in the Joint Forest Management (JFM) programme between the government and forest fringe communities of a province in West Bengal, India. It suggests that if there is no incentive plan for the poor, it is hard for the government to monitor their actions. The poor tend to take welfare subsidies and yet harvest optimally. A good incentive fee dependent on their work (output) is required for livelihood sustenance of poor people and sustainability of forest resources.     

The behaviour of the US consumer price index 1913–2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI

This article analyses the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the SDs of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the democratic presidencies (0.38%).     

Macroeconomic impacts of China’s foreign exchange reserve accumulation: a vector autoregression analysis using pure-sign-restriction approach

This study employs pure-sign-restriction approach analysing the macroeconomic impacts of foreign reserve accumulation and discusses the foreign exchange sterilization behaviour of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Sign restriction analysis shows that the effects of reserve accumulation shock are initially ambiguous on all variables, but later a positive influence only on base money can be observed. With regard to sterilization intervention, the effect is significant even though it degrades gradually over time. In China, the monetary authority actively undertakes sterilization intervention in order to remove the influence of passive release of base money caused by foreign reserve accumulation.     

Diverse twins: analysing China’s impact on Italian and German exports using a multilevel quantile regressions approach

Germany and Italy are the largest manufacturing producers in Europe and export over 70% of their products to OECD countries. While they share many characteristics, they are also diverse in term of specialization and destination markets. Italy has a productive structure largely based on labour intensive sectors, while Germany is mainly specialized in high-tech goods. We study whether these characteristics make the two countries vulnerable in different ways to the competitive pressure by emerging economies, especially China, which experienced the strongest increase in export market share during the last decades. We discuss the impact of China on the export performance of Italy and Germany on OECD markets. Using data for the period 1995–2009, we implement a novel model to account for two important data characteristics: their hierarchical hidden structure (captured by a multilevel model) and the heterogeneity of the export shares (captured by a quantile approach). Results show that Chinese competition on Italy’s and Germany’s market shares differ by sectors, but, on average, Italy is not more vulnerable than Germany. These results are relevant for policy implications and for an ex-post analysis of the ‘best response’ to the Chinese competition.     

A simulation of impact of withdrawal European funds on Andalusian economy using a dynamic CGE model: 2014–20

This is the first time that European Regional Policy will not consider Andalusia as one of the Objective 1 priority areas. Thus, this paper analyzes the economic impact of the withdrawal of a large amount of European Structural Funds from the Andalusian economy in the 2014–2020 Community Support Framework. A Dynamic Applied General Equilibrium Model is developed to assess the effects of the loss of this funding on the main regional economic indicators and under different simulation scenarios. The model analyzes the effect of economic policy actions on the economy, satisfying the requirements of welfare and technological feasibility when given some restrictions on available resources.     

The employment–population nexus and implications for sustainable economic development: insights from Irish regions using a partial adjustment model

In this paper, we use a partial adjustment model to analyse the relationship between employment and population growth in Irish district electoral divisions. We employ a spatial estimator to augment our partial adjustment model with a spatial lag and spatial error process. Our results indicate a dual relationship between employment and population growth, suggesting that not only do people follow jobs but also jobs follow people. This finding has implications for economic development policies, which typically focus solely on attracting jobs to a location. The results suggest that a dual-pronged approach to policy may be necessary including developing a region’s amenities to ensure that it is attractive to people and to stimulate population growth. We highlight how our analysis can be used to inform policy through the lenses of place-based and smart specialisation strategies.     

Exchange‐rate volatility and US–Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a ‘third country’ effect?

In an effort to better understand the determinants of trade flows worldwide, researchers have recently incorporated external volatility (in addition to that of the partners’ bilateral exchange rate) into their models. The so‐called ‘third country’ effect is present if adding this term changes the bilateral volatility estimates that are found when external volatility is omitted. This study examines US exports to Hong Kong for 143 industries, and imports from Hong Kong for 110 industries, and finds two key results. First, expected inflation due to Hong Kong's dollar peg leads to increased US exports in a large number of industries. Second, comparing our results with those of a previous study shows strong evidence of a ‘third country’ effect, especially for US imports. Nonparametric tests suggest that these effects differ by sector: for both exports and imports. Manufacturing industries that enjoy a large trade share are less likely to experience this effect once external volatility is incorporated into the analysis.     

Quasi-Monte Carlo methods in stochastic simulations: An application to policy simulations using a disequilibrium model of the West German economy 1960–1994

Different stochastic simulation methods are used in order to check the robustness of the outcome of policy simulations. The application of a macroeconometric disequilibrium model of the West German economy to a fiscal policy simulation is taken as an example. Due to nonlinearities arising from regime specific reactions inside the model, confidence intervals for the simulation results have to be obtained by means of stochastic simulations. The robustness of the results is assessed using different methodologies. In particular, different methods for the generation of uniform error terms and their conversion to normal variates are applied. These methods include standard approaches as well as quasi-Monte Carlo methods. First version received: May 1998/final version accepted: August 1999