Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

FDI对中国经济增长影响的实证研究

金融危机不仅带来灾难,同时也为FD I战略调整和进入新的发展阶段提供了契机。根据关于FD I对经济增长的传导机制的相关理论,试图定量研究我国的FD I通过哪些传导途径影响我国经济增长及其影响强度的大小。     

Fiscal policy and structural reforms in transition economiesAn empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.     

城市化、FDI与经济增长间关系的实证分析——以北京市为例

利用1987—2011年北京的时间序列数据,采用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果关系检验和脉冲函数分析等方法和模型,对城市化、FDI与经济增长三者间的长期和短期关系进行了检验和分析。结果表明:城市化与经济增长互为Granger因果关系;城市化与FDI也互为Granger因果关系;经济增长是FDI的Granger原因,但FDI不是经济增长的Granger原因的概率高达31.8%。     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

Spillover effects of FDI inflows on output growth: An analysis of aggregate and disaggregated FDI inflows of 13 MENA economies

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on overall growth, as well as its sector-specific spillovers in the Middle Eastern and North African region during the period from 2000 to 2020. Our major innovation is our ability to disaggregate FDI into primary, secondary and tertiary and examine their individual impact on growth, as well as their sector-specific spillovers by using dynamic panel GMM methodology. We find prima facie evidence that total FDI significantly stimulates growth. However, when we turn to the disaggregated FDI data, primary sector FDI adversely affects the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the service sector and overall GDP growth. On the other hand, secondary FDI has a ‘double-edged’ effect, benefiting its own sector (the service sector's GDP growth), but not other sectors. In contrast, service sector FDI stimulates GDP growth in mining, manufacturing and service sectors, thereby enhancing overall economic growth. Our findings have important policy implications regarding the incentives provided by governments to encourage FDI, which need to be fine-tuned to attract certain types of FDI (tertiary), with less focus on the primary sector     

Economic reforms,growth and well-being: evidence from India

This study examined economic well-being of sub-national units in India since the economic reforms. For this purpose, the study constructed well-being index for 17 major states of India for the period 1981–2011 based on five broad dimensions. Our results showed that the economic well-being of states has declined since the reforms. The interstate disparities have increased and the states (except Punjab and West Bengal) which performed well prior to the reforms continued to perform well in the post-reform years too. In addition, our regression results for the high well-being and low well-being states revealed that the reforms have benefited more developed high well-being states, rather than low well-being states. While human capital was found significantly and positively related to per capita incomes in both groups of the states, financial development was positively related in high well-being states, but a negative association was visible in the low well-being states.     

滞后效应视角下FDI对经济增长影响的实证研究

利用1991—2008年的数据,从产业结构的视角,运用ADL模型和二元滞后回归模型的思想对我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。以AIC信息准则、SC信息准则及LR统计量作为选择最优滞后阶数的判断标准,对三次产业的FDI及产业经济增长变量的滞后期进行估计并测算。结果表明,我国三次产业的FDI与各产业经济增长之间均存在不同程度的当年需求效应和滞后年份的供给效应。最后,就提高FDI在三次产业的利用效率提出建议。     

The effects of policy funds on the financing constraints of small- and medium-sized enterprises in South Korea

This study investigates whether small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) policy funds in South Korea are effective in reducing financing constraints faced by the SMEs. We find that investment-cash flow sensitivity decreases after public loans are granted, and furthermore that this decrease in the sensitivity is greater for younger and smaller firms. These results are consistent with the certification effects hypothesis.     

经济政策不确定性、FDI稳定性及研发投资密度 -基于资产专用性视角的研究

基于资产专用性衡量外商直接投资(FDI)异质性,在实物期权理论框架内探究经济政策确定性程度变化对FDI规模、稳定性及技术结构的影响机制,并采用制造业24行业外资企业数据进行验证。研究表明,经济政策确定性程度的下降对FDI规模存在抑制作用,并导致其高水平的波动,且受到资产专用性的正向调节。实证研究表明,2001年我国加入WTO后,可预期的政策环境中FDI呈现稳步增长态势;2008年金融危机后,政策不确定性的攀升引致制造业FDI增速下滑并伴随着波动性上升。进一步的研究发现,蕴含高水平资产专用性投资的研发密集型FDI对经济政策确定性程度更加敏感,一致、透明和可预期的政策环境的营造不但有利于提升FDI稳定度,对吸引高水平FDI更加具有针对性和有效性。     

Interest rate reforms,financial deepening and economic growth in Tanzania: a dynamic linkage

In this paper we examine the dynamic relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania using two tests. In the first test, we examine the impact of interest rate reforms on financial deepening using a financial deepening model. In the second test, we examine whether the financial deepening, which results from interest rate reforms, Granger‐causes economic growth – using a trivariate model. The empirical findings of our results reveal that there is a significant positive relationship between interest rate reforms and economic growth in Tanzania. However, the results fail to find any support for finance‐led growth.     

FDI,taxes and agglomeration economies in the EU15

This article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of tax differentials and agglomeration economies on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The article departs from most previous work on FDI and tax competition in a number of ways. First, it incorporates several measures of agglomeration in order to investigate whether agglomeration economies mitigate the downward spiral in tax rates. As the strength of agglomeration economies may vary with the degree of integration, we use a panel of bilateral FDI flows for a highly integrated region including countries with similar economic structure – the EU15 – from 1986 to 2004. Second, the empirical analysis explicitly deals with the problem of selection bias by using the Heckman sample selection approach. Also, by focusing on the EU15, we are able to provide additional information on the determinants of FDI between similar, higher-income countries. The empirical analysis provides some evidence of corporate marginal effective tax rates having an impact on FDI. This result, however, is sensitive to the inclusion of agglomeration economies. In particular, we find both Marshall types of technological externalities and overall concentration of economic activity to have an influence on FDI flows and, moreover, mitigating the negative impact of taxes.     

FDI规模、政府行为与贫困化增长的防范

FDI既有正面效应,也有负面效应,关键在于东道国政府的有效管理与合理利用。我国出现贫困化增长趋势的根源在于政府主导下的投资推动型的经济增长模式,在内外失衡、贫困化增长趋势已经显现之际,再盲目引进FDI提升产能绝非良策。随着产业的升级,中国在引资方向、产业领域等方面都应有所调整。应适当控制外资依存度,控制和引导外资的总量和结构,提升中外资本协调使用的效益,更多关注结构、技术、能耗和环保等因素。从中国目前的现实来看,以转型深化为基础来推动经济增长方式的转换以避免地方政府在吸引FDI上的恶性竞争,减少其负面效应进而防范贫困化增长,不失为一种可行的发展视角。     

Tax reforms and the growth of government

This paper analyzes alternative approaches to measuring the effects of structural tax changes on government growth. It first reviews traditional time series approaches that attempt to disentangle the causal relationships between taxes and spending. It explains why these methods are incapable of uncovering the true causal links because of problems of observational equivalence and why institutional data can assist in making this determination. It then presents the methods and results from two alternative approaches and studies that analyze the effects of changes in tax structures on government growth. Both methods rely on econometric and institutional analysis. First version received: November 1997/Final version received: February 1999     

发达国家发展循环经济的政策及启示

本文揭示了循环经济的内涵和特征,通过对日本、德国等发达国家发展循环经济的政策体系和手段的总结,分析并指出了我国发展循环经济的不足之处。我国要发展循环经济,必须借鉴发达国家的成功经验,从法律体系、经济政策、价格机制等方面完善制度建设,这是我国成功实施循环经济的关键性条件。     

融资约束、FDI流入对产业增长影响的实证分析——以浙江省为例

拓展了Rajan和Zingales模型,从理论上分析了融资约束和FDI流入对产业增长的影响,并利用2008—2012年浙江省制造业行业面板数据对之进行实证分析。结果显示:FDI通过发挥融资效应对产业增长产生抑制作用;FDI的融资效应对不同所有制企业的增长均具有一定的约束作用,对国有企业的影响效应主要通过产品市场路径传导,而对民营企业的影响效应则通过产品市场和金融市场两方面传导。最后,针对性地提出政策建议以促进产业增长。     

FDI, domestic capital and economic growth: Evidence from panel data at China’s provincial level

Based on panel data at the provincial level in China, this paper found that direct effects foreign direct investment (FDI) had on economic growth were of insignificance. However, through improving technical efficiency and “crowding” in domestic investment, FDI produced positive effects on China’s economy. The state sector still played a major part in the total fixed investment, therefore, direct effects on growth were significant. Although private sector was increasingly important for the whole economy, it had no direct influences on economic growth. Meanwhile, neither the state sector nor private sector made contribution to the improvement on technical efficiency. __________ Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenhui 世界经济文汇 (World Economic Papers), 2006, (4): 27–43     

Foreign direct investment and air pollution in Asian countries: does institutional quality matter?

This paper empirically studies how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects air pollution, and how this effect depends on institutional quality. By using a panel data for 19 developing Asian countries over the period of 2002–2015, we find that FDI inflows initially increase air pollution in Asia, and the institutional quality improvement helps reduce this effect until the institutional quality achieves a threshold, then beyond this threshold, FDI reduces air pollution. The findings indicate that the pollution haven hypothesis and the pollution halo hypothesis are not contradictory when the institutional quality is taken into consideration.     

西部地区外国直接投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文运用协整和因果关系检验理论,对西部地区从1979年到2005年的外国直接投资与经济增长数据进行实证检验.结果发现二者之间存在长期稳定的关系,并且当滞后两期时,经济增长是外国直接投资的格兰杰原因,而外国直接投资并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因.在协整分析的基础上建立了误差修正模型,分别从长期和短期对两者之间的关系进行了定量分析,并给出了结论和政策建议.     

Growth in transition economies: A trade policy perspective1

This paper examines the influence of trade liberalization on GDP growth during the transition from communism. The level of trade liberalization is found to raise the growth rate, particularly in the early part of the transition and for the countries nearest to the European Union. For the remaining countries and for the later transition period, the positive influence of trade reform on growth requires the negative effect of the interaction between trade reform and privatization to be taken into account. Even with the interaction terms the effect of trade liberalization is not statistically significant in the later transition period.