Federalism, education-related public good and growth when agents are heterogeneous

In this paper we use an endogenous-growth model with human capital and heterogeneous agents to analyse the relationship between fiscal federalism and economic growth. The results show that federalism, which allows education-related public good levels to be tailored to the local distribution of human capital, increases human capital accumulation. This in turn leads to higher rates of growth. The benefits of federalism are stronger, the larger the intra-jurisdiction variance of agents’ human capital.     

企业环境保护投资规模优化的灰色关联分析

利用灰色系统理论,以环保投资外部效益内化为前提,对企业优化环保投资规模进行综合评价与决策,以提高企业的环保投资效率、激励企业的环保投资行为。认为,在相关环境标准和法律约束的框架下,应该使用经济杠杆赋予企业一定的污染治理选择权,促使其综合考虑、权衡利弊,开拓和寻找既切合实际又具有良好环境效益、社会效益与经济效益的污染治理方案,环保投资活动才有经济基础,才有可持续的动力。     

税收竞争、经济集聚与地区投资行为

中国财政分权体制下的地区间招商引资竞争广泛存在。本文通过一个纳入经济集聚因素的新古典投资决策计量模型,考察了税收激励对投资地域选择的影响。研究发现目前在中东部地区经济集聚可为地方财政带来一定的集聚租金,这使地区间税收激励政策呈现为差异化竞争策略;投资的流动性、地区经济基础、投资的产权性质等均对地区的税收激励政策选择有重要影响。本文的研究意味着,实现区域均衡发展需要构建稳定的地区间财力分享制度、改善欠发达地区的产业发展基础。     

股东对创新投入的反应：股权激励异质性的信号作用

以我国2017—2019年沪深两市A股实施股权激励的上市企业为样本,基于股东视角分析股东对创新投入信息的反应,探讨这一反应在股权高度集中时的变化,并考察高管团队股权激励异质性因素向股东传递信号的机制。结果表明,创新投入与股东反应正相关;股权集中度正向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系;股权激励异质性负向调节创新投入与股东反应的关系,且该效应在民企中更加显著;经营风险是股权激励异质性负向影响股东对创新投入反应的中介变量。     

中国的经济转型与经济增长质量:基于TFP贡献的考察

影响经济发展结果的不仅仅是经济增长的速度,还有经济增长的质量.经济增长的质量也是一国经济发展的重要内容之一.经济转型实质是一场大规模的制度变迁过程,经济转型的关键是"使制度正确",形成社会制度结构中的关键变量--社会激励结构,节约经济增长过程中的交易成本,形成提高经济增长质量的激励和治理机制.中国特有的经济转型与经济增长质量变化之间存在密切关系,本文运用全要素生产率的贡献度来对我国1978年改革以来的经济增长质量进行量化,在实证研究基础上得出体现我国经济转型的市场化率、工业化率、城市化率与经济增长质量之间是正向的相关关系,我国的经济转型在一定程度上促进了经济增长质量的提高.     

A New Perspective for Fiscal Federalism: The NK Model

Economic models of fiscal federalism, according to different settings, are generally linear and static, offering unique and deterministic solutions starting with simplifying assumptions. This article stems from the idea of investigating how decision-makers, abandoning their traditional economic models and focusing on innovative components of evolutionary economics instead, can achieve better performance results in organizing and optimizing an economic system based on fiscal federalism. For this purpose, fiscal federalism must be understood as a dense network of economic relationships between different complex adaptive and co-evolving systems, the jurisdictions, linked by strong interdependencies. A better understanding of the links between interdependence will be provided by Stuart Kauffman’s NK model. The relevance of the NK model in the study of economic organizations has been noted in the relevant literature. This literature, however, neglects the problem of co-evolution, which underpins our article.     

Fiscal federalism,jurisdictional competition,and the size of government

Fiscal federalism is commonly held to reduce the size of government, but how does it do so: through shrinking the welfare state, cutting government consumption, or reducing public investment? This paper examines tax competition under fiscal federalism through the lens of imperfect competition theory, derives new empirical implications from different theories of fiscal federalism, and tests those hypotheses with new variables and data. Cross-national statistical results show that jurisdictional competition under fiscal federalism is associated with reductions in the administrative expense of government but not the size of the welfare state. Moreover, the apparent impact of fiscal federalism with a high degree of jurisdictional competition is larger than that estimated in previous research. Once the models have been appropriately specified, the United States is no longer an outlier among high-income democracies on either government consumption or social spending. Close examination of the data reveals that some fiscally federal systems better approximate a “market-preserving model” and others a “capital-privileging” or “state-corroding” model.     

经济增长与社会公平:公共支出的均衡激励机制

本文就经济增长与社会公平构建了财政结构方程均衡激励模型。利用中国的经验数据实证分析发现,经济增长与社会公平在我国确实存在着替代关系,公共支出对经济增长的非均衡激励是这种替代关系存在的决定因素,公共支出对经济增长与社会公平存在均衡激励机制,但中国的均衡激励机制不健全。我们的政策建议是:明晰各类公共支出的属性,规范各自职能,确保各类支出按属性规定的功能激励经济增长与社会公平;扩大中间收入阶层的力量,尊重纳税人的声音,建立公共支出民主投票政治机制,从制度上保障公共支出均衡激励经济增长与社会公平。     

补贴介入下军工企业研发助力的“迷失”

研发投入与财政补贴是影响企业成长的内在因素和外在条件。选取我国军工上市企业2011-2017年面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法实证分析研发投入及财政补贴调节效应下研发投入与企业成长的内在联系。结果发现,研发投入强度对我国军工企业成长具有显著滞后性推动作用;在财政补贴调节效应下,研发投入对企业成长的激励作用有所“迷失”。研究结论为我国军工上市企业研发活动影响企业成长提供了新证据,为研究军工企业研发活动投入经济后果及如何适应军民融合进程拓展了新视角。     

The three tier strategy followed by successful European countries in the 1990s

In general, the economic performance of European countries was disappointing in the 1990s. However, country differences increased, and in some European countries economic growth matched US rates. This paper uses a set of performance indicators to carve out a group of successful European countries and to compare their economic strategies to those of the more poorly performing, big continental economies. The analysis shows that the successful countries implemented a policy mixture of cost cutting, improving institutions, and investing in future growth. We consider the first two strategy elements to be preconditions, while investment in growth drivers such as research, education and technology diffusion is the sufficient condition for long‐run growth. The difference between top and low performers is larger with respect to the dynamics of future investment than in cost cutting. In research expenditures, the top countries surpassed the big continental European countries in 1987, and have been increasing their lead steadily since that time. They are welfare states with a comprehensive social net, which they have maintained in principle, while improving institutions and incentive structures. The results are not in line with the usual twin hypotheses that high welfare costs and insufficient labour market flexibility are the main culprits in European underperformance.     

Coordinating development: Can income-based incentive schemes eliminate Pareto inferior equilibria?

Individuals' inability to coordinate investment may significantly constrain economic development. In this paper we study a simple investment game characterized by multiple equilibria and ask whether an income-based incentive scheme can uniquely implement the high-investment outcome. A general property of this game is the presence of a crossover-investment point at which an individual's incomes from investment and non-investment are equal. We show that arbitrarily small errors in the government's knowledge of this crossover point can prevent unique implementation of the high-investment outcome. We conclude that informational requirements are likely to severely limit a government's ability to use income-based incentive schemes as a coordination device.     

提高地方政府投资效率的思考——基于双重委托代理模型的分析

利用双重委托代理模型,从理论上论证合理的激励约束机制设计会提高地方政府投资效率,并对GDP、财政收入及地方政府投资进行Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数分析,得出以GDP和财政收入作为激励约束机制确实会使地方政府产生短期投资行为,降低投资效率。提出了完善激励约束机制和加强社会监督力度的对策建议。     

投资规模、投资效率与经济增长的动态关系研究

投资规模扩大和投资效率提高是推动经济增长的重要动力。通过向量自回归模型实证检验中国投资增长、投资效率与经济增长的动态关系,发现投资增长和投资效率提高均能促进中国经济增长,但中国经济发展长期高度依赖投资规模的扩张,投资效率没有得到相应提高,经济增长的可持续性正面临挑战。为实现可持续发展,中国经济需要转变发展方式,实现投资规模驱动型增长方式向投资效率提高驱动型增长方式的转变。     

我国R&D投入与经济增长间关系的实证分析

采用时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法,利用1989—2009年我国R&D投入与经济增长的数据,对R&D投入与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,我国R&D投入与经济增长之间存在某种均衡关系,且R&D投入促进了经济增长,而经济增长对R&D投入的拉动作用则不显著。     

人口老龄化、公共人力资本投资与 经济增长*

本文利用内生化老龄化的世代交叠模型,探讨了老龄化社会中为了促进经济增长可选择的公共人力资本投资的最优相对规模和结构。本文研究表明,公共人力资本投资相对规模（即占GDP比例）和公共健康支出占比（即占公共人力资本投资比例）均与经济增长呈倒U型关系,且最优值通过老龄化对经济增长的作用表现出来。即当老龄化对经济增长有促进（抑制）作用时,政府促进经济增长的政策是提高（降低）人力资本投资相对规模和公共健康支出占比。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,老龄化不利于经济增长,公共人力资本投资相对规模及公共健康支出占比偏大,均处在倒U型曲线的下降阶段,分别通过挤出对经济增长更具促进作用的私人投资、公共物质资本投资和公共教育支出而不利于经济增长。本文的政策含义是,政府需提高公共教育支出占比,引导和鼓励更有效率的社会私人资本进行人力资本投资,以逐步降低公共人力资本投资的相对规模。当前公共物质资本投资则需继续加强。     

Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth

Demographic structure could affect economic growth through many channels. However, little is known about how demographic structure affects economic growth since no study has examined an extensive collection of channels through which demographic structure could affect economic growth in a single context. This paper overcomes this limitation by examining 45 potential mediating variables between demographic structure and economic growth. A causal search algorithm is used to identify channels through which demographic structure affects economic growth. Our results suggest that demographic structure affects economic growth differently between developed and developing countries. For developed countries, we find that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive effect on economic growth through institutions, investment and education channels. On the other hand, an increase in the share of the senior population has a negative effect on economic growth through institutions and investment channels. For developing countries, we find (but with weak evidence) that an increase in the share of young workers has a negative effect on economic growth through investment, financial market development and trade channels.     

Public investment,national debt,and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency

Public investment is a central issue in the dynamic analyses of fiscal policy and economic growth. Debt financing for public investment and its effects have recently received great attention because interest rates have been low, almost invariably remaining below economic growth rates. This paper presents examination of the effects of debt-financed public investment subject to a simple fiscal rule in an overlapping generations model with public capital. This topic includes capital budgeting and the debt–deficit criterion of the Maastricht treaty. We show herein that debt financing for public investment enhances economic growth if an economy is dynamically inefficient and if public capital has a sufficiently large productivity effect. Moreover, it reduces economic growth rates in a dynamically efficient economy. Debt and growth can have a monotonic or non-monotonic relation, depending on the steady-state interest rate, growth rate, and productivity effect of public investment. The findings indicate that debt–growth relations match with controversial empirical evidence. Furthermore, existing generations choose perfect debt finance if dynamic inefficiency exists. In contrast, a balanced budget is preferred in a dynamically efficient economy with low productivity effects of public capital. However, an economy with high productivity effects of public capital might cho ose debt financing. This paper contributes to the elucidation of currently emphasized issues of public investment.     

政府公共投资的经济效应分析

关于政府公共投资的经济效应,学术界有颇多争论,虽然一系列研究成果发现公共资本与经济增长正相关,但也有一些学者通过研究得出了截然相反的结论。文章运用经济增长理论分析政府公共投资的经济效应,并以中国相关数据为样本进行实证检验,实证检验得出结果:公共投资与产出正相关。在此基础上,文章根据我国目前所处的经济发展阶段,运用计量经济模型,估计出我国当前政府公共投资的最优规模,即公共投资占GDP的合理比重为4.5%,公共投资占财政总支出的合理比重为22%左右。     

政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应

本文首先建立一个包含政府公共资本投资的两部门内生增长模型,并把公共资本投资分为政府物质资本投资和人力资本投资,从而对公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应进行理论分析。结论是,两种形式的公共资本投资对长期经济增长都可能具有正效应也可能具有负效应,取决于民间经济主体消费跨时替代弹性大小。其次,我们利用向量自回归分析框架,对我国1978—2004年间公共资本投资对长期经济增长的影响作实证分析。结论是,我国两种形式的公共资本投资与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中政府公共物质资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响更为显著,而政府公共人力资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响较小,且在短期内不利于经济增长。这一结论对我国今后科学制定财政政策和选择公共投资领域都具有重要意义。     

Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries

To the layman, the upward trend in European unemployment is related to the slowdown of economic growth. We argue that the layman's view is correct. The increase in European unemployment and the slowdown in economic growth are related, because they stem from a common cause: an excessively rapid growth in the cost of labour. In Europe, labour costs have gone up for many reasons, but one is particularly easy to identify: higher taxes on labour. If wages are set by strong and decentralized trade unions, an increase in labour taxes is shifted onto higher real wages. This has two effects. First, it reduces labour demand, and thus creates unemployment. Secondly, as firms substitute capital for labour, the marginal product of capital falls; over long periods of time, this in turn diminishes the incentive to invest and to grow. The data strongly support this view. According to our estimates, the observed rise of 14 percentage points in labour tax rates between 1965 and 1995 in the EU could account for a rise in EU unemployment of roughly 4 percentage points, a reduction of the investment share of output of about 3 percentage points, and a growth slowdown of about 0.4 percentage points a year.