Pre-Acquisition Profile of Privately Held Companies Involved in Take-Overs: An Empirical Study

This study addresses the pre-acquisition financial characteristics of privately held, rather small acquiring and acquired companies involved in 143 Belgian take-overs between 1992 and 1994. Specifically, the research examines the profitability, liquidity, financial structure, added value and failure risk using statistical analysis of industryadjusted variables. Our findings show that acquisition is not an alternative to bankruptcy since acquired companies do not report high failure risk, but exhibit higher than industry liquidity and solvency. The acquirers achieve a higher growth rate in total assets and sales than the acquired firms but experience a negative industry-adjusted liquidity and are highly levered, suggesting evidence for a growth-resource mismatch within, but a financial fit between acquirers and their targets.     

MODELING THE RECOVERY RATE IN A REDUCED FORM MODEL

This paper provides a model for the recovery rate process in a reduced form model. After default, a firm continues to operate, and the recovery rate is determined by the value of the firm's assets relative to its liabilities. The debt recovers a different magnitude depending upon whether or not the firm enters insolvency and bankruptcy. Although this recovery rate process is similar to that used in a structural model, the reduced form approach is maintained by utilizing information reduction in the sense of Guo, Jarrow, and Zeng. Our model is able to provide analytic expressions for a firm's default intensity, bankruptcy intensity, and zero-coupon bond prices both before and after default.     

Retailing and the period leading up to the Great Recession: a model and a 25-year financial ratio analysis of US retailing

Today, more than ever, retailers need to analyze the key solvency (liquidity) and efficiency financial ratio measures that affect how well their firms perform and to engage in long-term activities that will lead to improved results. Clearly, the recent ‘Great Recession’ has had a significant negative impact on retailers worldwide. Yet, an important question remains largely answered: Was the retail industry a major contributor to the events leading up to the economic crisis or was it an affected bystander shaken by the recession? This paper addresses the question for US retailing, the largest retail economy in the world. Although there has been considerable research on some aspects of the performance of the industry and individual firms, no prior studies exist that comprehensively examine the financial ratio performance of the totality of US retailing over time. Here, the financial performance of US retailers in 54 different sectors is analyzed for the 1982–2007 period using a model and data derived from Dun & Bradstreet's annual Industry Norms & Key Business Ratios. Results show that for many financial measures – such as the current ratio, liabilities to net worth, return on sales (profit margin), return on assets, financial leverage, and return on net worth – US retailing's financial performance has been in a steady decline for decades. The model introduced here is largely validated.     

Optimal hedging under nonlinear borrowing cost,progressive tax rates,and liquidity constraints

Empirical research using optimal hedge ratios usually suggests that producers should hedge much more than they do. In this study, a new theoretical model of hedging is derived. Optimal hedge and leverage ratios and their relationship with yield risk, price variability, basis risk, taxes, and financial risk are determined using alternative assumptions. The motivation to hedge is provided by progressive tax rates and cost of bankruptcy. An empirical example for a wheat and stocker‐steer producer is provided. Results show that there are many factors, often assumed away in the literature, that make farmers hedge little or not at all. Progressive tax rates provide an incentive for farmers to hedge in order to reduce their tax liabilities and increase their after‐tax income. Farmers will hedge when the cost of hedging is less than the benefits of hedging that come from reducing tax liabilities, liquidity costs, or bankruptcy costs. When tax‐loss carryback is allowed, hedging decreases as the amount of tax loss that can be carried back increases. Higher profitability makes benefits from futures trading negligible and hedging unattractive, since farmers move to higher income brackets with near constant marginal tax rates. Increasing basis risk or yield risk also reduce the incentive to hedge. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 375–396, 2000     

Islamic financing and bank risks: The case of Malaysia

We examine whether Islamic financing can explain three important bank risks in a country with a dual banking system: credit risk, interest‐rate risk, and liquidity risk. Using Malaysian data, we find that commercial banks with Islamic financing have significantly lower credit and liquidity risks but significantly higher interest‐rate risk than banks without Islamic financing. There is also evidence that bank size is significantly related to credit risk; the proportion of loan sales to total liabilities and bank size are significant determinants of interest‐rate risk; and off‐balance‐sheet financing, the extent of securitization, loan volatility, bank capital, and bank size are statistically significantly related to liquidity risk. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

商业银行流动性结构对其主被动融资行为的影响研究

《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》修订工作尚无定论，但我国已经取消存贷比监管指标。文章选用净稳定资金比率、核心融资比率和存贷比三个指标测度我国商业银行的流动性结构，并以2007-2016年我国112家商业银行为研究样本检验商业银行流动性结构对其主被动融资行为的影响。研究发现，商业银行被动融资对其主动融资有着较大的负向冲击，而流动性结构更加强化了这一效应。进一步挖掘表明，这一效应更多地源于负债端，相反资产端则起到弱化作用。因素分析证实，提高其他有息负债的比重、贷款比重和投资资产比重可有效减弱商业银行流动性结构对其主被动融资行为的影响程度。最后，提出了相关监管建议。     

Detecting financially troubled property-liability insurers

The financial failure of property-liability insurers results in unpaid claims amounting to approximately $25 millions annually. A more effective system must be developed to detect these troubled firms at an earlier date and reduce this cost to society. The current system employed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners relies primarily on loss reserves and loss ratios. It appears that most failures result from dishonesty and the removal of assets from the company into the possession of management. This study presents a model which incorporates variables designed to detect this draining of assets and identify companies which show a high probability for failure. This model is tested on an independent sample and is successful in correctly classifying 88% of the firms three years prior to liquidation. This study differs from prior studies by using a new approach to selecting the variables for the model.     

政府资产风险:地方财政风险分析的一个新视角

针对目前研究地方财政风险问题时往往都从负债的角度来考察 ,本文变换了一下研究思路 ,从资产风险的角度来研究我国地方政府财政风险。本文首先定义了地方财政风险和地方政府资产风险概念 ,然后通过界定政府资产的类型 ,即财政收入、政府存量资产和政府无形资产或称政府威信 ,分别考察我国地方政府这三类资产的状况 ,结果发现我国地方政府资产质量不佳 ,存在着很大的风险 ,本文试图探究其原因 ,并为此提出了一些建议。     

The age-effect of financial indicators as buffers against the liability of newness

This paper builds on the liabilities of newness literature to suggest that accounting information is important for new firms. Using a sample of over 30,000 companies followed during their first 7 years of existence, we find evidence that financial indicators mitigate the liability of newness and that this buffering effect is stronger the younger the organization. These results represent three primary contributions to the literature. First, our conceptualization of accounting measures as indicators of external (creditworthiness enhancing legitimacy) as well as internal (targets for management) buffers to the liabilities of newness provides a novel way of viewing these constructs and explains why they are important to new firms despite their uncertainty and opacity. Second, we theoretically justify and empirically validate that these constructs are more important the younger the new firm is, which runs counter to the common wisdom of these constructs in the entrepreneurship literature. Third, we identify buffers against failure for new firms that are generalizable across industries.     

金融创新如何影响了中国货币需求的流动性陷阱效应——来自金融理财产品的证据

本文利用变系数状态空间模型,考察了近年来中国以互联网金融理财产品和银行理财产品为代表的金融创新对货币流动性陷阱效应的影响,主要结论为:(1)货币需求流动性陷阱在中国的确比较显著地存在,其作用机制基本符合投资组合假说,但显著性与货币层次划分密切相关,M2和M1相对显著,而M0则不显著;(2)与成熟市场经济国家不同,金融创新强化而非弱化了货币需求的流动性陷阱效应,这可能与中国金融产品仍不够丰富有关,但互联网金融对货币投机性需求因“功能主序效应”而对流动性陷阱影响不显著,银行理财产品虽然影响显著,但对不同层次货币表现出“结构差异效应”;(3)利率市场化改革增强了金融创新对流动性陷阱效应的边际影响,其作用机制是利率市场化改革弱化了金融市场的分割,强化了利率在微观经济主体金融资产组合中的信号作用。本文的政策含义是,面对当前金融风险仍较高和金融稳定任务仍较重的现实,低利率货币政策的效果有限,金融危机期间欧美所采用的数量型非常规货币政策的借鉴意义须充分重视,且货币政策操作应当注意与中国金融结构变迁阶段特征相耦合。     

The Evans and Jovanovic Equivalence Theorem and Credit Rationing: Another Look

In their well-known paper on liquidity constraints, Evans and Jovanovic (1989), argue that under certain assumptions an equivalence relation exists between the probability of switching from wage- into self-employment and assets of the entrepreneur. That is, if and only if there are liquidity constraints is the probability of switching a function of the individual's assets. The present paper amends this proposition by showing in a simple diagram that if the probability of switching depends on assets then capital constraints are implied in their model; but not vice versa. This apparently trivial correction is shown to have important implications for empirical work. Under some circumstances alternative tests need to be employed to establish the existence or otherwise of credit rationing. One such test is discussed.     

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.     

A GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PROFIT MAXIMIZATION AND TRANSFER PRICING MODEL

In environments where tax rates in local regions do not represent major decision factors, a cost minimization methodology, which represents the most common optimization modeling approach for integrated manufacturing and distribution planning, can help formulate an effective integrated plan. However, when planning flexibility or alternatives exist because of differing local country tax rates and types and intra‐company transfer pricing options, cost minimization methodologies may inaccurately identify profit‐maximizing global production and distribution plans. Instead, a profit maximization model that explicitly evaluates decisions such as where to incur tax liabilities and how to set intra‐company prices may be required to develop an integrated global manufacturing and distribution plan. In this paper, we discuss and formulate a model that yields profit maximizing global production and distribution plans. We discuss the managerial implications of our results, and the potential applications and benefits of the model.     

Religion and ratio analysis: Towards an Islamic corporate liquidity measure

This paper contributes to the emerging literature on the effect of religion on corporate decision making and financial reporting. Financial statement analytical tools could violate several commands of Islamic law. Specifically, traditional liquidity ratios imply undervaluation, uncertainty, and interest bearing aspects that are strictly prohibited in Islamic law. We propose an Islamic-compliant measure of corporate liquidity. In order to validate our proposed ratio as a measure of corporate liquidity, we incorporate it in the traditional corporate bankruptcy prediction models. Our measure significantly improves the accuracy of the corporate bankruptcy prediction models of Altman (1968) Z-score and Ohlson (1980).     

Institutional Investors,Earnings Quality and Asset Liquidity: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

This paper investigates how institutional holding and earnings quality influence the liquidity of assets. Contrary to findings in developed markets, we document several novel results in China’s stock market: (1) institutional holding negatively affects assets’ liquidity, (2) earnings quality is negatively related with liquidity. Since earnings quality captures asymmetric information, low earnings quality induces high divergence in investor opinions and thus boosts market trading, and (3) interestingly, the effect of earnings quality on liquidity is greater if institutional investors’ holding is at a high level. Overall, our findings cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that institutional investors and earnings quality improve market liquidity. The results are robust to different measures and alternative model specifications.     

Are Gold and Government Bond Safe‐Haven Assets? An Extremal Quantile Regression Analysis

This study reexamines gold and government bonds as potential safe‐haven assets (SHAs) during market turmoil from daily data in 16 international markets over the past 20 years. We apply the extremal quantile regression model by Chernozhukov and Chernozhukov and Fernandez‐Val for empirical investigation. The outcomes indicate that a government bond is more likely to be qualified an active SHA, which can increase in value during market turmoil. Gold can be generally evaluated as a passive SHA, which is uncorrelated with market slumps. However, at the extremal 0.001 quantile level, neither asset can be qualified as a SHA. Since both assets exhibit a similar number of cases of being qualified as SHAs, we cannot significantly differentiate the “flight‐to‐liquidity” and “flight‐to‐quality” hypotheses. In terms of market selection, United States and Singapore are the top two choices while France and Hungary are the least commended markets to invest their local gold market as SHA.     

The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap

Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today.     

The Effect of Bankruptcy Filings on Rivals' Operating Performance: Evidence from 51 Large Bankruptcies

I examine the operating performance of financially distressed firms and their rivals in the periods surrounding 51 bankruptcy filings. The analysis indicates that filings are associated with declines in rivals' revenues and profit margins. The declines occur prior to and coincident with bankruptcy filings, but dissipate quickly after a filing occurs. The adverse effect on rivals' profit margins appears to be caused by changes in firms' product market conduct, as it is robust to several methods used to screen out filings where a common shock has occurred. I then examine whether market structure affects the link between filings and rivals' profit margins. The market structure effects appear to be small.     

The Impact of Liquidity Risk: A Fresh Look*

This paper takes a fresh look at the importance of liquidity risk using a comprehensive liquidity measure, weighted spread, in a Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) framework. The weighted spread measure extracts liquidity costs by order size from the limit order book. Using a unique, representative data set of 160 German stocks over 5.5 years, we show that liquidity risk is an important risk component. Actually, liquidity risk is increasing the total price risk by over 25%, even at 10‐day horizons and for liquid blue chip stocks and especially in larger, yet realistic order sizes beyond €1 million. When correcting for liquidity risk, it is commonly assumed that liquidity risk can be simply added to price risk. Our empirical results show that this is not correct, as the correlation between liquidity and price is non‐perfect and total risk is thus overestimated.     

Stock Market Liquidity and Firm Value: An Empirical Examination of the Australian Market

We document a positive relation between stock liquidity and firm value. We examine the mechanism through which stock market liquidity enhances firm value by dividing firm value, as measured by Tobin's Q, into three components, namely, operating income to price, leverage, and operating income to assets. Using the switch to broker anonymity as an exogenous shock to market liquidity, we show that the increase in liquidity around the shock leads to an increase in firm value. Our results suggest that higher firm value for more liquid stocks seems to stem from enhanced stock prices rather than from better operating performance.