National Accounting with Natural and Other Types of Capital

We do double-entry national accounting and incorporate zero profit arbitrageconditions (Euler equations) for different types of capital, includingnatural capital. In non-balanced growth, capital gains terms for capitalgoods appear in the income side of the accounts. Depreciation terms appearon the product or expenditure side. We consider renewable natural capital aswell as non-renewable of both durable and non-durable types.     

THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANALYTICAL TOOL*

The purpose of this article is to record the history of the national income and product accounts of the United States, concentrating on the period 1932–47. During that period the single national income aggregate evolved into a set of accounts and the estimates emerged as an important analytical tool. Interviews with participants in these developments were extensively utilized to trace the events, people, ideas, and other factors which shaped the history of the accounts. The generally recognized need for economic information during the Great Depression stimulated the request that the Department of Commerce undertake what became the first official continuing series on national income in the United States. These estimates were prepared with the cooperation of the National Bureau of Economic Research and were published in 1934. By the late 1930's, estimates were extended to include income by state and a monthly series. World War II was the impetus for the development of product, or expenditure, estimates. By the mid-1940's, the estimates had evolved into a set of income and product accounts–a consolidated production account, sector income and outlay accounts, and a consolidated saving-investment account–designed to provide a bird's-eye-view of the economy. During this period uses of the accounts widened; analysis of wartime production goals and anti-inflation policy are noteworthy examples. The National Income, 1947 Edition was the culmination of a period of intensive conceptual discussion, extension of data sources, and improvement of estimating techniques. Thereafter the mainlines of development are more familiar, encompassing refinement and elaboration of the estimates and proliferation of uses.     

THE TREATMENT OF STOCK APPRECIATION IN THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME*

In the latest official national income publication the Australian Commonwealth Statistician has altered the treatment of stock appreciation in the measurement of national income at current prices. Previously, stock appreciation had been included in both national expenditure and national product. Now the amount of stock appreciation (the difference between the change in the value of stocks and the value of the change in stocks) has been deducted from investment in stocks, and consequently national expenditure, and from trading incomes, and consequently national income. The former procedure (including stock appreciation in national expenditure and national product) had been advocated by the present author, when editor of the first official national income publications issued by the Commonwealth Statistician. In this note an attempt is made to set out the reasons for this view. A new approach is also suggested for handling the item of stock appreciation in national income accounts, which does not rest on the assumption that stock appreciation is a capital gain which should be excluded from trading incomes and national product.     

Residual Risk Accounting: A Pilot Study

Risks such as flooding, oil spills, deaths, and unemployment continue despite numerous policies to prevent and mitigate their effects. Such policies are typically analyzed in their natural units such as jobs making comparison difficult across categories. An approach akin to a satellite national income and product account (NIPA) allows direct comparison of the relative importance and variability of these residual risks. Results are presented for an unusual geographic aggregate associated with coasts. Although this framing adds difficulties for integration into national accounts, precedents exist. The findings synthesize elements that would otherwise be separated or not reported in standard NIPA accounts. Some elements are found to be stable and large, while other elements exhibit high variability and a high level of damages potentially informing individual and policy choices. The pilot case study also suggests the value of using a more standard, national geographic area.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AT CONSTANT PRICES

This article discusses the problem of compiling a balanced set of national accounts at constant prices. The method adopted is based on earlier work on this subject by Burge and Geary. Commodity flows, which are uniquely deflatable, are expressed at constant prices and savings in constant prices is obtained by preserving a balanced set of equations in real terms. The deflation of the external account is discussed.
A method is suggested for expressing the national income account in real terms and an "income gain" is deduced for each industrial sector which represents the difference between real income and real product in that sector. The sum of the income gains for the domestic sectors is zero.
The constituents of the income/expenditure accounts of households, corporations and general government are expressed at constant prices by selecting suitable deflators in a consistent manner. The accounts in real terms are now unbalanced and are balanced again by inserting a balancing item which is shown to represent a gain to the sector arising from changes in the terms of trade between the sectors. This item is called an "expenditure gain". The sum of the expenditure gains for the institutional sectors is zero.
The system suggested can be extended to cover additional items in the accounts and thus a complete set of national accounts in real terms can be derived.     

U.S. INCOME, SAVING, AND WEALTH, 1929—1969

The objective of this paper is to present income and expenditure accounts, accumulation accounts, and the asset side of the wealth accounts for the U.S. private national economy in current and constant prices. These accounts are integrated with the production and factor outlay accounts for the U.S. private domestic economy in current and constant prices given in our earlier papers. Taken together, these accounts constitute a complete accounting system in current and constant prices for the private sector of the U.S. economy.
Our complete accounting system incorporates a new concept of the standard of living, defined as the ratio of the quantity index of gross private national expenditures to the quantity index of gross private national consumer receipts. Our concept of the standard of living is similar but not identical to our concept of total factor productivity. Changes in the private standard of living reflect both changes in total factor productivity and changes in the proportion of the total product consumed in the public sector.     

DOES CONSUMPTION ENTAIL INCOME? IMPLICATIONS OF THE DUAL CLASSIFICATION OF CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE FOR THE INCOME SIDE OF THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

In the future revision of the SNA the dual classification of flows in the national accounts will gain some importance with respect to consumption expenditures. It is likely that outlays of different institutions for consumption are added to form a new aggregate “individual consumption.” The question is whether this development requires an adjustment on the income side of the household accounts. In order to find an answer it is first necessary to scrutinize the concept of disposable income in its standard form, and in its different variations. The result is a distinction between “disposable income in the strict sense” and “income after distribution,” where the standard definition actually realizes the latter concept. It is then shown that the dual structure of the accounts does not permit the adding of individual consumption to saving of households so that the concept of enlarged income defeats its purpose.     

CONSTANT WEALTH NATIONAL INCOME: ACCOUNTING FOR WAR DAMAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE NETHERLANDS, 1940–45

The issue of the proper way to address and document crisis and disaster in the national accounts is brought into focus by analyzing a practical case: the damage caused by the Second World War as discussed at a 1945 Paris reparations conference. It is concluded that "what if" damage e.g. output not produced due to the war should not be included in the national accounts, but factual damage should. The method by which factual damage should be included must then be decided. The option of just showing the damage in the reconciliation accounts is rejected. Instead the introduction of an additional income concept into the accounts, constant wealth national income is proposed. This Hicksian concept deducts from standard national income the damage to all produced goods lasting longer than a year. The concept is illustrated with guesstimates for the Netherlands, 1940–45. Finally, by way of an illustration, the paper employs 1945 estimates of damage in the Netherlands in order to arrive at a constant wealth national income for 1940–45. It is shown that, in 1938 prices, constant wealth national income is very much lower than standard national income and thus far better reflects the decline in prosperity during these years.     

Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective

We propose an enhanced regime-switching model to investigate the relationships between oil price surges and stock market cycles in five oil-dependent countries. Our model accounts for the joint effects of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil markets and simultaneously captures asymmetry, volatility persistence and regime shifts contained in the underlying financial data. We find that stock market returns strongly exhibit a regime-switching behaviour, but they react differently to the increases in the price of oil. More precisely, the conditional volatility of studied stock markets during the bear market phases is found to be less affected by oil price surges than during the bull market phases. Whether the effects of oil shocks are positive or negative depends greatly on the degree of reliance on imported oil, the share of the cost of oil in the national income and the degree of improvement in energy efficiency of a given country. Finally, the relatively opposite effects of the WTI and Brent oil markets suggest the potential of substitution between them as well as the necessity of a diversification strategy of oil supply sources.     

REPORT OF A CONFERENCE ON THE PROPOSALS FOR REVISION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, HELD BY THE CONFERENCE ON RESEARCH IN INCOME AND WEALTH

This report summarizes the proceedings of a series of meetings called by the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research in June of 1966. The major conclusions of the conference, as transmitted to the Statistical Office of the United Nations, were as follows: (1) The aim of integrating the various parts of the system of national accounts, including input-output and financial transactions, is to be welcomed. (2) The more recently developed parts of the system need considerably more work to reach the same level of clarity and usefulness which the national income and product accounts have acquired. (3) Some simplification of the proposed basic system should be considered, involving the identification of a minimum of information that should and could be provided by all countries. (4) In line with the conference's overriding interest in national accounts as an instrument for economic analysis and a means of more informed policy formation, the proposed system needs considerable strengthening in the field of income distribution.     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.     

INTERTEMPORAL COMPARABILITY OF NATIONAL INCOME IN CZECHOSLOVAKIA

The national income and product account (United Nations concept) in current prices itemized by distributive shares and by type of expenditure is given for the period 1929–1937. The national income by industrial origin and the reproducible national wealth are computed for the year 1930. Differences between the U.N. and the material concept are explained by means of the 1939 data.
The national product series in real terms are computed (a) by means of the price deflation of the types of expenditure, and (b) as the physical output of goods and services by industrial origin (since 1926). Major changes In distributive shares are explained with the help of Price-cost analysis.
The national product in real terms attains the lowest point in 1935 and not in 1933, as the industrial production and foreign trade series indicate. The structure of gross national expenditure reveals the same pattern of shifts, as is well known from other industrially developed countries during the business cycle.
The development of national product by industrial origin, however, reveals some conspicuous singularities. Especially the uninterrupted increase in trade services (in terms of both persons engaged and turnover in constant prices) is an anomaly in the period of 1929–1937.
Further, the Increase of rent (due to the gradual abolition of rent control), contrasting with the general fall of prices, led to a major shift in the distribution of national income during the early thirties. The other remarkable change resulting mainly from the changing price structure was the decrease of the farmers' share in national income.
The production, transportation and distribution series in real terms reveal some time-lags. These result partly from the shift from the foreign to the home market, partly from the compensatory effects of stock movements, and partly from the delayed adjustment of consumers to declining income.     

Real Gross Domestic Product and the Terms of Trade

Since their inception in the early 1960s, constant price national accounts have contained a measurement inconsistency in the expenditure accounts which flows through to the production accounts. The inconsistency has the effect of excluding changes in the terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) from real gross domestic product, so that it is unequal to real gross domestic income, which includes them. In economies, such as those of Australia and Canada, that experience substantial changes in the terms of trade, a real gross domestic product excluding those effects becomes a misleading guide for macroeconomic analysis and policy.     

Measuring lnequality in the Middle East 1990–2016: The World’s Most Unequal Region?

In this paper we combine household surveys, national accounts, income tax data and wealth data in order to estimate income concentration in the Middle East for the period 1990–2016. According to our benchmark series, the Middle East appears to be the most unequal region in the world, with a top decile income share as large as 64 percent, compared to 37 percent in Western Europe, 47 percent in the US and 55 percent in Brazil (see Alvaredo et al. 2018). This is due both to enormous inequality between countries (particularly between oil‐rich and population‐rich countries) and to large inequality within countries (which we probably under‐estimate, given the limited access to proper fiscal data). We stress the importance of increasing transparency on income and wealth in the Middle East, as well as the need to develop mechanisms of regional redistribution and investment.     

National income and trust

We explore whether national economic prosperity enhances mutual generalized trust. This is done using a panel data of multiple waves of the World Values Surveys, whereby national income levels are instrumented for using exogenous oil price shocks. We find significant and substantial effects of national income on the level of trust in the economy. In particular, a 1% increase in national income tends to cause an average increase of 1 percentage point (or more) in the likelihood that a person becomes trustful. We also identify crime and corruption as potential mechanisms that may lead to the reported causal effect and explore heterogeneous effects across individuals.     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

Distributional national accounts for the Netherlands and a comparison with 12 other countries

Most inequality studies rely on micro data that do not capture a substantial share of income identified in the national accounts. In the Netherlands, almost one fifth of household disposable income is missed by current inequality statistics. In this paper, we present inequality statistics for the Netherlands that capture all of household income, so-called distributional national accounts. Compared to the current inequality statistics, the Gini coefficient for disposable income increases substantially from 0.289 to 0.337. Cross-country comparisons show that such a change between Gini coefficients based on micro-data versus Gini coefficients based on distributional national accounts does not apply to all countries. The difference between both Gini coefficients varies not only between countries in the size, but also in the sign of the difference.     

THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

After an introduction setting out the general state of work on the national accounts in the Middle East the author considers the principal uses of national accounts statistics in less developed countries. The first group of uses discussed is in connexion with the measurement of growth and the making of international comparisons. The author is of the opinion that in many cases the primary statistical series are so weak that the fact they they are combined together into a series called national income or gross domestic product lends to them a significance which they do not really possess. The real problem is to improve the quality of the primary series. A second use of national accounts statistics is in connexion with fiscal and budgetary policy. In the statistically advanced countries this is one of the most important uses but in the less developed countries budgetary policy has not yet reached a level of sophistication which would call for the use of national accounts data. Moreover, the time factor involved in assembling accurate national accounts estimates militates against their effective use for short term forecasting. The author considers that the most important use for national accounts statistics is to provide a framework for development planning. The United Nations system is not altogether appropriate for this purpose. It grew up primarily as a system for recording income flows but in development planning one is concerned equally with commodity flows with a great deal of attention being focussed upon intermediate products. The proposals of the working group of African Statisticians for an adaptation of the S.N.A. to African countries represents a most important advance in this respect. In the final section of the paper the author advocates a broader definition of capital formation to include developmental expenditure which is not properly defined as fixed capital formation. Education expenditure is cited as an example. It is suggested that in the national accounts it would be desirable to operate with gross concepts. However, the growth of the capital stock is obviously important in less developed countries and it is suggested that statistical techniques be devised to measure it directly wherever possible. Finally, attention is drawn to the ambiguities and weaknesses in the concept of residence as used at present in the S.N.A.