Democracy and climate change policies: Is history important?

This paper argues that it is countries' historical experience with democracy, the democratic capital stock, rather than current levels of democracy that determines current climate change policies. Empirical evidence using data starting as far back as year 1800 for 87 countries, which together are responsible for 93.7% of global carbon emissions, suggests that the democratic capital stock has an important and robust effect on climate change policies. A history of executive constraints is particularly important. The current level of democracy does not play a role once democratic capital has been accounted for.     

气候变化全球治理的处境、困境与路径

应对气候变化的全球治理无疑是当今世界最受关注的治理实践。与人们的期望相背,气候治理的实践一直都是并将在可见的将来都会是举步维艰的。之所以如此,是由气候治理的内在困境所决定的;因此,有效的治理路径只能是立足于现实困境之上的谨慎探索。     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

International and Regional Cooperation: Asia's Role and Responsibilities

Asia has emerged from the global financial crisis as an important stabilizing force and an engine of global economic growth. The establishment of the G-20 gives Asian economies the global forum that they need to both represent their interests in global governance and deliver on responsibilities concomitant with their growing weight in the global economy. The region has a host of cooperation arrangements in APEC, ASEAN+3, and EAS (East Asian Summit), all with ASEAN as the fulcrum. They are huge assets, but they need to be repositioned to relate effectively to the G-20 process and other global arrangements. They also need to comprehend the politics of the changing structure of regional power. This paper discusses the challenges that Asia faces in aligning regional and global objectives in financial, trade, and other areas of cooperation, such as climate change and foreign investment. It argues that Asia is now a critical player in the global system and has a central contribution to make in strengthening global governance and international policy outcomes. The paper sets out ways to fill gaps in regional cooperation and link the agenda for regional cooperation more effectively to Asia's new role globally. This is essential to sustain Asia's superior growth performance, correct imbalances, and support the global economic system.     

Royal Dutch/Shell

Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice.     

Firepower: Geopolitical Cultures in the Anthropocene

ABSTRACT

The human control of fire is a relatively neglected part of the discussion of the contemporary transformation of the planet. Thinking about it in terms of geopolitics is a way to link climate adaptation, extinction and the possibilities of extending traditional analyses of political ecology to the global scale. Such thinking is explicitly rejected as the appropriate premises for foreign policy action by the Trump administration which poses American greatness in terms of traditional understandings of firepower. This clash of geopolitical cultures is now key to global politics, where dramatic landscape transformation, related species extinctions as well as climate change results directly and indirectly from human control of combustion. Firepower is a matter of military technology as well as, in the form of fossil fuel combustion, the essential energy source that fuels the global economy. Focusing on combustion as a key geophysical force in contemporary geopolitics offers useful insights into the Anthropocene discussion and, in particular, the two planetary boundaries of climate change and biodiversity loss, which are key to contemporary efforts at global environmental governance.     

Multi-level Governance and Global Climate Change in East Asia

Climate change is an issue that requires integrated action at multiple levels of government and within the spheres of politics, economics, and society. National, regional, and local governments have both distinct and complementary roles in developing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Compared with the attention that has been given to international and national activities in East Asia, relatively limited attention has been paid to the role of urban and regional governments in combating global climate change. Cities and provinces are initiating their own climate action plans, positioning themselves as environmental model cities, and joining local, national, and international networks for climate change. This article examines urban and prefectural climate policies in China, Japan, and South Korea within a multilevel governance framework.     

Democracy, Governance, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

The paper examines how democracy affects long-run growth by influencing the quality of governance. Empirical evidence is first presented showing that measures of the quality of governance are substantially higher in more democratic countries. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is then built to show how a governance-improving democracy raises growth. In this model, stronger democratic institutions influence governance by constraining the actions of corrupt officials. Reducing corruption, in turn, stimulates technological change and spurs economic growth. Empirical evidence is presented showing that democracy is in fact a significant determinant of total factor productivity (TFP) growth between 1960 and 1990 in a cross-section of countries. But this contribution occurs only insofar as stronger democratic institutions are associated with greater quality of governance.     

Clean Energy Trade Governance: Reconciling Trade Liberalism and Climate Interventionism?

Scaling-up clean energy is vital to global efforts to address climate change. Promoting international trade in clean energy products (e.g. wind turbines, solar panels) can make an important contribution to this end through business and market expansion effects. If ratified, the landmark Paris COP21 Agreement will commit states to firmer climate actions, this necessarily requiring them to strengthen their promotion of clean energy technologies. Well over a hundred countries already have active policies in this area, many including industrial policy measures that impact on the international competitiveness of their clean energy sector. At the same time, governments have gradually liberalised their clean energy trade regimes, and large producers are negotiating an Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA). Clean energy trade is expanding and disputes among nations in this sector are growing. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) still has limited ‘policy space’ for climate action. Meanwhile, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) still had narrow and infrequent connections with trade matters. Moreover, WTO-UNFCCC engagement on trade-climate issues overall has been largely confined to information sharing and secretariat-level dialogue. This paper explores the extent to which clean energy trade is currently governed, where certain governance gaps and deficiencies exists, and argues why addressing them could help expand trade in clean energy products. It also contends that the most fundamental challenge for the future governance of clean energy trade concerns how to reconcile ramped-up interventionist climate action with an essentially liberal trade order.     

How Political Institutions Determine Corporate Governance Reforms: The Polity,Law and Corporate Practices in the Case of Switzerland

The aim of this article is to contribute to our understanding of the role that political institutions play in the reform processes of national corporate governance regimes. I argue that existing theories are limited in that they conceive of political institutions' impact on corporate governance largely in terms of a deterministic influence on the political coalitions that emerge and on the policy outcomes. Based on the analysis of the paradigmatic case of a consensual democracy – Switzerland – I show that the consensual polity does not directly determine the outcome of a reform process, but rather the direction of causality between legal changes and changes in practices as well as the nature of the changes. Consensual polities require large parliamentary majorities for legal change to happen. Therefore, corporate practices are likely to change before legal rules and less demanding forms of institutional change, such as ‘layering’, are favoured.     

Understanding Resilience in Climate Change and Conflict Affected Regions of Nepal

In the face of global climate change, strengthening community resilience becomes increasingly important, especially in conflict affected countries with fragile governance. Nepal is such a country, recovering from a decade of civil war while facing several climate and environmental risks, including floods, droughts and landslides. We aim to contribute to the understanding of resilience building by drawing on case studies from Banke, Dang and Rolpa districts in Nepal. To compare the resilience of the districts we conduct field research. None of the analysed approaches to strengthen the resilience are without unintended consequences. The provision of rice in Rolpa increases food security but also creates local preferences for rice that cannot be met sustainably. In Dang and Banke aid resources themselves have become a source of conflict. We conclude that a more holistic understanding of local realities is needed to minimise unintended effects and strengthen resilience under challenging governance and (post)conflict conditions.     

北极渔业治理的研究综述

气候变暖下的北极渔业逐渐引起国际关注,而技术进步使人类进入北极成为可能,发展北极渔业成为缓解全球海洋渔业资源危机的可行方式。北极拥有丰富的渔业资源,但北极的生态环境极为脆弱,如何有序发展北极渔业、实现北极渔业的有效治理是当前国际社会议论的热点。运用文献综述法,对北极渔业资源相关研究进行归纳,从现有法律制度、管理组织、影响北极渔业治理的主要因素方面总结出北极的渔业治理与一般海洋渔业治理的不同之处,并对未来北极可行的渔业治理模式进行展望。     

Promise and shortcomings of a green turn in recent policy responses to the “double crisis”

The paper analyses six international-scale responses to the financial and climate change ‘double crisis’ in order to: review how they define problems and solutions, analyse what underpins the policy choices revealed in these responses (the ‘green turn’), reflect on the implications of the proposed solutions in terms of sustainability and global environmental justice, and to suggest three elements for a paradigm shift towards an ‘alternative’ turn embedded in ecological economics theory. The analysis reveals that responses by leading international organisations continue to appeal to the precepts of neoclassical economy. We argue that from an ecological economics perspective, policy responses under the various labels of green economy, green growth, sustainable growth, green new deal, fall well short of what is needed to fight the environmental crisis and rising inequality across and within countries. The idea of justice and equity that underpins the mainstream approach seems inadequate in terms of sustaining our environmental base and global environmental justice. Based on this critical review, we propose an ‘alternative turn’, centred on three elements of a paradigm shift leading to a new economy where the environmental base and global environmental justice are at the centre of the discourse.     

Is democracy compatible with global institutions?

The salience and relevance of the currently existing global institutions raise the question of their compatibility with some reasonable notion of democracy. I hold that democracy, as a form of government based on social consent, can be operationalized with different institutional formulas, mostly depending on the territorial scale and the degree of conflict of interests of the issues submitted to collective decision-making. Democratic institutional formulas include the people’s assembly in small cities, party elections of representatives in large states, and expert accountable rulers at the global level. Analogously to how democracy was scaled up from the city level to the state level in early modern times, it needs to be scaled up to the global level by the design and adoption of appropriate institutional formulas.     

The political economy of direct legislation: direct democracy and local decision–making

Local and regional governments account for an important share of total government spending and, given the decentralization trend in OECD nations, this is likely to increase. How should this spending be governed? This article argues that direct democracy is best suited to organize decision–making at the state and local level. To support this, we present the main theoretical arguments on why and how referenda and initiatives affect fiscal policy outcomes. The basic argument concerns voter control. Under representative democracy, citizens only have direct control at election time. With referenda and initiatives, citizens can selectively control their representatives on specific policies whenever they deviate sufficiently from citizens' preferences. As a result, fiscal policy outcomes are likely to more closely reflect voter preferences. We empirically test this on Swiss data since Switzerland provides a 'natural laboratory' for local governance. The governance structures of Swiss cantons and localities with respect to fiscal issues range from classic parliamentary democracy to pure direct democracy, and an important part of spending and taxation is controlled at these levels. Specifically, we estimate an econometric model of fiscal behaviour using data from 1986 to 1997 for the 26 Swiss cantons, and 1990 data on 134 local communities. It is shown that mandatory referenda on fiscal issues at both levels have a dampening effect on expenditure and revenue, and at the local level also on public debt. Combining this with existing empirical evidence leads to a relatively uncontested result, namely that elements of direct democracy are associated with sounder public finances, better economic performance and higher satisfaction of citizens.     

分散与整合:跨国公司全球研发网络投资的空间协同治理研究

全球研发网络投资是跨国公司适应开放式创新要求而新推出的一种研发投资组织类型。关于跨国公司全球研发网络投资如何实现空间协同治理的研究,学界在概念内涵、关键要素及运行机制等方面尚存在认知差异。基于对现有文献的梳理,针对跨国公司全球研发网络投资空间协同治理的概念、目的效应及关键要素进行了归纳和分析,并围绕治理的层次结构分析,提出了跨国公司全球研发网络投资空间协同治理的基本框架。最后指出,需要结合跨国公司的全球整合实践,对跨国公司全球研发网络投资空间协同治理模式等问题展开进一步研究。     

社会资本、民主发展与政府治理——对69个国家的比较研究

社会资本被认为是社会的润滑剂和善治的社会基础。很多文献认为,高水平的社会资本能够提高政府的治理绩效。但是目前国内外的研究均忽略了社会资本发挥作用的制度环境。本文通过对全球69个国家的实证数据进行比较分析后发现,社会资本能否对政府治理产生影响,依赖于一定的制度环境。在民主制度建设不完善、民主发展水平较低的情况下,社会资本对政府治理并不能产生显著的影响;只有在民主发展水平比较高、民主制度比较健全的情况下,社会资本才能显著地促进政府治理绩效的提高。而且,民主制度建设得越完善、越充分,社会资本对治理的正面促进作用就越大。     

Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?

Elevated world temperatures, as forecasted by the 4th IPCC report, are expected to increase the hydrological cycle activity, leading to a change in precipitation patterns and increase in evapotranspiration. These in turn are expected to affect river runoff and water variability, depending on basin latitude. In this paper, we assess the impact of water supply variability on ‘treaty cooperation’ (defined here as the likelihood of treaty formation and number of treaties formed) between international bilateral river basin riparian states. The water variability measure that we use captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability. We employ additional control variables adopted from economic and international relations theories on international cooperation. The main results suggest that water supply variability in international bilateral basins creates an impetus for cooperation. Our results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between water supply variability and treaty cooperation. Similarly, interactions between the states in the form of diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation. Uneven economic power between the riparian states inhibits treaty cooperation. The geography variables we use are insignificant in all the estimated relationships.     

美国国家公园应对气候变化的经验及其对中国国家公园建设的启示

2017年随着《建设国家公园体制总体方案》的出台，中国的国家公园建设逐渐步入正轨。然而我国人口众多，幅员辽阔，气候条件复杂且生态环境脆弱，正在建立的国家公园极易受到气候变化所带来的不利影响，且我国关于国家公园应对气候变化的研究较少。美国的国家公园体制较为完善，在应对气候变化方面已有较为深入的探索。通过文献调研和比较分析法，以佛罗里达州大沼泽地国家公园和亚利桑那州大峡谷国家公园为例，分析其应对气候变化的方法与经验，并从气候监测、国家公园管理、适应性规划以及环境教育等方面对我国国家公园应对气候变化提出建议，使正在建设中的中国特色国家公园体制稳步推进。     

碳达峰碳中和目标导向下能源和经济的低碳转型

习近平主席在第75届联大上提出中国2030年前CO2排放达峰和2060年前实现碳中和的新气候目标,是我国统筹国内国际两个大局的战略决策。实现CO2排放达峰是实现长期碳中和目标的重要阶段性目标和时间节点。CO2排放达峰时间越早,峰值排放量越低,越有利于实现长期碳中和目标,因此要统筹碳达峰和长期碳中和的目标和措施,协调部署,强化行动。实现碳达峰、碳中和目标,需要有强有力的政策和措施保障,并成为国家现代化治理体系的重要环节。要远近统筹,进行超前部署和行动。本文建议如下:制定国家长期低碳发展战略,把长期碳中和目标纳入国家本世纪中叶社会主义现代化强国建设总体目标和战略之中;加强深度脱碳技术研发和产业化,积极应对全球碳中和导向下国际经济技术竞争;加强应对气候变化制度建设;结合打好污染防治攻坚战,发挥减污降碳协同效应。另一方面,在国内做好碳达峰、碳中和工作的同时,要积极参与并引领全球气候治理与国际合作,为共建全球生态文明和构建人类命运共同体做出中国的努力和贡献。